NFL Best Bets: Three underdog locks for Week 11

Our weekly NFL underdog betting staple continues into Week 11, where Ken Pomponio features three teams likely to upset their underdog odds

[jwplayer JLUmLtYE]

NFL Week 10 was wild, a memorable week and a surprise-filled week which featured nine of 13 underdogs covering the mid-week lines.

We weren’t on either of the big underdogs (Atlanta Falcons +11.5 in New Orleans, Miami Dolphins +9.5 in Indianapolis) who not only covered but also won outright, but we did go 3-0 to snap a run of three straight 1-2 weekly finishes and up our season record to 18-12.

Now it’s back to board to find more underdog value, utilizing, as usual, Wednesday’s posted point spreads from BetMGM.com.


Get some action on the games by betting at BetMGM. New customer offer: RISK-FREE First Bet (up to $500!) paid in free bets.


Dolphins (+6) vs. Buffalo Bills

Nov 10, 2019: Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brian Spurlock – USA TODAY Sports

Don’t look now, but the Dolphins’ tanking mission is suddenly headed the wrong direction.

Behind the fearless play of veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and an energized, no-name defense, Miami is 2-0 in November and has covered in five straight outings after a brutal 0-4 against-the-spread start in which the Dolphins were outscored 163-26.

The Bills, meanwhile, have gone 2-2 after a 4-1 start, including a tighter-than-it-looks 31-21 home win over the Dolphins in Week 7.

Keep riding with Fitzpatrick and Co. here as the oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to the new-and-improved Dolphins. They’re playing hard for a first-year coach in Brian Flores, who clearly doesn’t include “tanking” among his best career interests.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3½) vs. New England Patriots

Feb 4, 2018: Eagles coach Doug Pederson (left) and Patriots coach Bill Belichick reunite Sunday. Matthew Emmons – USA TODAY Sports

It hasn’t proven to be wise wagering against Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Co., who are 10-3 in their last 13 games ATS dating back to Week 17 of last season — and coming off the bye in this one.

But the host Eagles are coming off their bye, as well, and they are 4-2 after starting off 1-2.

Philly is sure to be fired up for the teams’ first meeting since Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis, and while the Pats are sure to be focused coming off their first loss followed by the bye, we’ll take a solid team getting a field goal and the always-tempting half-point hook at home.

Arizona Cardinals (+11½) at San Francisco 49ers

Oct 31, 2019: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray faces the 49ers again. Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports

If it seems like we just saw this NFC West matchup, it’s because we did, two weeks ago in the desert as the visiting Niners prevailed in a much-tougher-than-expected 28-25 contest on Halloween.

In between, San Fran suffered its first loss, falling to the visiting Seattle Seahawks 27-24 in an overtime duel Monday night that arguably has been the best NFL game this season.

The 49ers also continue to battle the health bug with tight end George Kittle and receiver Emmanuel Sanders likely to be game-time decisions. And quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is battling some obvious shakiness after completing only 24 of 46 passes Monday for 248 yards, a touchdown and an interception, along with two lost fumbles.

Rookie QB Kyle Murray and the Cards, meanwhile, are 3-6-1 straight up but have been one of the league’s best ATS squads at 7-3, including five covers in their last six outings.

We were on Arizona last week in Tampa, and we’ll go with the Cards again here Sunday afternoon in San Fran where the home team is simply giving too many points.

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]

Would it be fun to get a beer with Ryan Fitzpatrick? Micah Hyde thinks so

Buffalo Bills safety Micah Hyde on Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The last time the Bills and the Dolphins met in a game, Buffalo safety Micah Hyde met Miami quarterback and former Bill Ryan Fitzpatrick with a hit in the end zone when he scored on a late scamper.

Hyde would prefer to meet Fitz at the local watering hole next time.

On Wednesday while chatting with reporters, Hyde was discussing Fitzpatrick but more so talked about the man behind the mask instead of the warrior on the field. In fact, he said exactly that, Fitzpatrick would be a cool guy to get a beer with.

“I definitely respect him. I know that some guys here, that were here in the last couple of years actually had an opportunity to play with him, I think Lee (Smith) had an opportunity to play with him,” Hyde said. “He seems like one of those guys you can just go to the Big Tree Inn, have a beer with him him, shoot the [expletive] with him and have fun, that’s what he seems like, honestly.”

On the flip side, Fitzpatrick spoke to the Bills’ team radio show on Wednesday as well. Fitzpatrick reflected on playing for the Bills as he often does when facing his old team. It sounds like that would be a good topic of conversation Hyde and Fitzpatrick would have at the end corner of seat of an establishment.

“There are very few places where, during the football season, your mood every single day, is all based on what happened last Sunday and that’s what Buffalo is. It was such a special place to play and when you’re a player there you really do appreciate the fans and how much they’re into it,” Fitzpatrick said.

Beverages aside, Hyde also said he’s prepping to face a competitor in the Dolphins QB this week.

“You see him go out each and every week and he competes. He puts his body on the line and he gets hit a lot and he gets back up. In my eyes, I respect the guy a lot,” Hyde said.

[lawrence-related id=48467,48460,48453,48446]

6 storylines to watch for during Bills at Dolphins

Here are six storylines to follow entering this weekend’s divisional battle between Miami and Buffalo.

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 10. However, the team has a great chance to rebound against its divisional rival, the Miami Dolphins.

The Bills beat the Dolphins at New Era Field only four weeks ago, with Buffalo storming back to score 22 points in the fourth quarter in a come-from-behind victory.

Even though their games are only separated by just about a month, quite a bit has changed for both teams.

Here are six storylines to follow Week 11’s Bills-Dolphins matchup:

Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary. Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Can the Bills score points?

There was much to be frustrated about last week for Buffalo. Even with a struggling offense, the team still had the ball in their hands with an opportunity to tie (or even win) the game on their final drive.

There was ample criticism with how the offense has struggled to take a major step forward this season, often relying on the defense to keep them close. There’s only so long that this defense can carry the load.

Fans and analysts alike will watch closely to see if offensive coordinator Brian Daboll can put together a more imaginative plan of action for the offense. The Bills are 25th in the league in scoring offense, averaging 19.3 points per game. This slots them as the lowest-scoring offense among prospective playoff teams. That’s not a promising sign for the Bills.

9 things to know about the Bills’ Week 11 opponent, the Dolphins

The Bills and Dolphins will complete their 2019 pair of games on Sunday in Week 11 from South Florida. These aren’t your father’s Dolphins, and they’re not your Dolphins from like a few weeks ago when Buffalo topped Miami in 31-21. Things have …

The Bills and Dolphins will complete their 2019 pair of games on Sunday in Week 11 from South Florida.

These aren’t your father’s Dolphins, and they’re not your Dolphins from like a few weeks ago when Buffalo topped Miami in 31-21. Things have changed in three short games since then.

With that, here are nine things to know about the Bills’ Week 1 opponent, the Dolphins:

Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores meet following the game at New Era Field. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Red hot Dolphins

The Bills were huge 15.5 opening favorites against the Dolphins in their first meeting. Buffalo took a 31-21 win and didn’t cover that. Actually it was nearly just a three-point win had it not been for a goofy onside kick score from Micah Hyde late.

But since then, it’s been smooth sailing for the Dolphins. After topping the New York Jets for their first win of the season, 26-18, Miami beat the Colts last week 16-12.

Yes, the tanking Dolphins are on a winning streak. Buffalo is still the favorite, but hey, if they’re hot, they’re hot. Along with their winning streak, the Dolphins have led in four-straight games as well, dating back to that loss in Buffalo.

Watch Dolphins’ Brian Flores break down Ryan Fitzpatrick TD vs. Colts

Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores broke down some of the dynamics of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s rushing TD against the Indianapolis Colts.

Sunday afternoon wasn’t exactly the best showing thus far in 2019 by the Miami Dolphins — but it was enough to get the job done en route to a 16-12 victory over the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. The key play for Miami? Ryan Fitzpatrick’s scrambling score in the 1st half to put the Dolphins up 10-0, a clutch play against a fast, physical Colts defense who didn’t yield much to Miami all game long — even before the Dolphins were blanked in the 3rd quarter.

Head coach Brian Flores met with Kim Bokamper in the aftermath of Miami’s victory over Indianapolis to break down the play that ultimately ended up being the difference maker for the Dolphins. The first note from Flores? This is an extremely difficult red zone defense to navigate, which made Fitzpatrick’s leg work a must in order to crack the end zone.

Perhaps the most interesting note from Flores’ time with Bokamper is the continued messaging that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a special personality, one that draws excitement and inspiration out of his teammates. No, Fitzpatrick isn’t the most physically gifted quarterback. Heck, Josh Rosen has more physical gifts as a player. But Fitzpatrick is the one who transcends talent and brings the “energy and enthusiasm” that Flores wants to see out of his Dolphins’ team.

So as the Dolphins move forward and look for their answer at quarterback, that connection figures to be an intangibles component Miami refuses to budge on. Nor should they. If Fitzpatrick can have this kind of success over the past month for Miami, imagine what a young, charismatic quarterback can do for Miami when the Dolphins decide it is time to add talent.

[vertical-gallery id=416921]

What Ryan Fitzpatrick was mad about during latest Dolphins’ win

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Flores mad about NFL concussion policy during win vs. Colts.

The Miami Dolphins will host the Bills in Week 11. Once thought of as an easy win, the home team is actually on a two-game winning streak as Buffalo enters the game on the heels of a loss to the Browns.

Former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Dolphins to a 16-12 win over the Colts. Albeit was a win over backup-QB led team as Brian Hoyer started, a win is still a win.

But Fitzpatrick wasn’t all happy after this one. Why?

Late in the fourth quarter, Fitzpatrick was forced to undergo a concussion test. The NFL spotters made the call to yank him from the game.

Fitzpatrick didn’t like that.

Colts defender Grover Stewart caught Fitzpatrick with a helmet-to-helmet hit causing the concussion test. But Fitzpatrick’s problem was the timing of the test, not the test itself.

Stewart hit Fitzpatrick, then two more snaps took place for Fitzpatrick, including a sack. There was then a field goal by Miami, an ensuing kickoff, and a quick Hoyer interception. At that time, Fitzpatrick was trying to go on the field but was pulled back to the sideline for the test. He wanted the test to be somewhere a bit earlier when he wasn’t needed on the field.

“I understand why they call down and have spotters. But I sat out the game for five minutes,” Fitzpatrick said.“I understand the process, but if they are going to do it they need to do it right away.”

After the interception, backup Josh Rosen handed the ball off three times and the Dolphins added another field goal. So things weren’t all bad but sending in an ice cold backup doesn’t help.

Miami head coach Brian Flores was also unimpressed and was seen upset on the sidelines as the situation unfolded.

“Once they call down it’s out of everyone’s hands,” Flores said. “They call down when they call down.”

In the win Fitzpatrick was 21-for-33 passing for 169 yards with an interception. He added another 23 yards rushing and a score on the ground in the win.

[lawrence-related id=48103,48076,48091,48035]