We’re past Thanksgiving, so the real NFL season is underway.
At least that’s how the saying goes.
In this space, we’re bringing a 21-15 overall record into the closing stretch after going 2-1 last week. I was on pair of underdogs who covered in straight-up losses (Colts +3.5 against the Texans and Cowboys +6.5 vs. the Patriots) and another (Packers +3.5 at the 49ers) that most definitely did not.
Now, with the trio of Turkey Day games already in the Week 13 books, we’ll have to come up with three underdogs from the rest the card, utilizing, as usual, Wednesday’s posted point spreads from BetMGM.com. Here goes …
Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
These two AFC South foes met back in Week 2, and the visiting Colts came away with a 19-17 road victory for their 19th win in the last 23 meetings with the Titans since the start of the 2008 season.
But it’s been the Titans who have since undergone the greatest transformation, winning four of five games since Ryan Tannehill replaced the scuffling Marcus Mariota as the starting quarterback in Week 7. Tannehill has been much more than just a fill-in, throwing for 10 TDs and rushing for three more while throwing only four interceptions.
Indy, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction, having dropped three of four since Week 9 with QB Jacoby Brissett missing two of those losses with a knee injury.
Brissett has been back for the last two games, but two of his top weapons will missing Sunday as tight end Eric Ebron has been placed on injured reserve list and No. 1 wideout T.Y. Hilton is sidelined after suffering a setback with his nagging calf injury in practice this week.
That’s more than enough to tilt the balance in favor of the red-hot Tannehill and the Titans if you weren’t leaning in that direction already.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
This matchup of 4-7 Florida foes also is a meeting of two teams headed in opposite directions of late as the Bucs have won two of their last three while the Jags have dropped three straight, losing by at least 20 each time.
Tampa quietly owns the league’s No. 3 scoring offense at 28.4 points per game, and only the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, with 3,788 in 12 games, has thrown for yards than the Bucs’ Jameis Winston (3,391 in 11). Winston also ranks fourth with 22 TD passes but, of course, the problem is interceptions as Winston has tossed 20 — six more than any other QB in the league.
Meanwhile, QB Nick Foles is back at the helm in J’ville, but he’s guided the Jags to only 33 points in his last two starts.
Foles has a capable sidekick in running back Leonard Fournette, but (again) the Bucs quietly own the league’s No. 2 defense against the run. Jacksonville doesn’t have cornerback Jalen Ramsey anymore to help deal with Tampa’s standout WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who have both already eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards on the season and have combined for 16 scoring receptions.
Look for the Bucs to prevail in a shootout.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
It’s another intriguing Monday night matchup as the NFC’s two current wild-card front-runners put their superb records on the line.
Both teams feature QBs (Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins) playing at elite levels, and well-rounded, top-10 offenses going against shakier-than-most-expect defenses, particularly against the pass, so there should be some back-and-forth action on the scoreboard.
Despite their 9-2 record, though, the Seahawks are stunningly 0-5 ATS against the midweek lines at home this season while the 8-3 Vikings have covered and won in three of their last four road contests.
Take the Purple and the points.
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