Tag: playoff odds

Colts can clinch playoff berth with win over Raiders

Win and in! Colts can clinch a playoff berth with a Week 17 win over the Raiders.

Though the Indianapolis Colts (9-6) would need a lot of help to win the division, they can make their way into the playoffs with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders (8-7) in Week 17.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Colts currently have a 97% chance to make the playoffs. A win at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 17 would be all the Colts need to clinch their playoff berth for the second consecutive season.

As the top wild-card team in the AFC, the Colts got some help around the conference and now have a full-game lead over the seventh-seed Baltimore Ravens (8-7). They also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the New England Patriots (9-6) thanks to their win in Week 15.

Meanwhile, the Colts have an 11% chance to win the division. But if the Tennessee Titans defeat the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, then they clinch the AFC South.

Indy will be dealing with some injuries and COVID-19 issues in Week 17 so that will certainly have an impact on the outlook of the matchup.

But as long as the Colts take care of business at home this week, they will find themselves in the playoffs.

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Notre Dame’s updated road map to College Football Playoff

What do you think should need to happen to get Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame checked in sixth this week in the College Football Playoff rankings with two teams ahead of them set to play this weekend and another pair set to play next weekend.  It seems like the Irish have a great shot at making the CFP for a third time in four seasons upon hearing that, right?

To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!”

Although those are the facts today, seemingly everything you hear appears to be hell-bent on a one-loss Big 12 champion (Oklahoma or Oklahoma State) moving past Notre Dame.  The Irish will have to hope for whoever wins the Bedlam matchup this weekend to fall in next weekend’s Big 12 championship.

Here is the updated Notre Dame road map to the College Football Playoff after the week 12 CFP rankings were released with all percentages courtesy of the FiveThirtyEight college football tracker.

 

Seahawks’ chances of making playoffs down to 16% following loss to Packers

According to FiveThirtyEight, Seattle now has just a 16% chance of making the postseason this year.

The Seattle Seahawks had more at stake yesterday than any team in the NFC when it came to playoff probability. Their frustrating loss to the Green Bay Packers put them in a very precarious position.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Seattle now has just a 16% chance of making the postseason this year.

 

On the bright side, the competition at the bottom of the conference is lacking to say the least. Seattle could still sneak in, but there’s officially no more room for screwups.

If the season were to end today, the Carolina Panthers (5-5) would have the seventh and final seed in the NFC.

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Week 9 Rooting Guide: Cowboys’ playoff odds, who can help this week

A look at the club’s odds to earn the No. 1 seed and also reach the Super Bowl, as well as who fans should root for in other Week 9 games. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Thanks to their scintillating backup-QB-led victory in Week 8, the Dallas Cowboys are riding high on a six-game winning streak. Their 6-1 start is the team’s best since 2016, when they ran off 11 wins in a row following an opening season loss. That was in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott’s rookie season, and it was an unbelievable run of magic that endured during the famed “should Tony Romo get his job back” debate. Next Monday is the five-year anniversary of Romo’s concession speech.

Back then, the offense was centered around the running style of Elliott, but now not only is Prescott in firm control of the position, but the offense. The Cowboys are once again in the thick of the race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed and there is once again real hope the drought will soon end. That pursuit is marred by perhaps the best field the conference has seen in a while, with six teams having two losses or fewer, four of them with just one defeat, including Dallas.

The weekly watch is one.

Thanks to Week 8 losses by Arizona (7-1) and Tampa Bay (6-2) the Cowboys now control their own destiny in regards to these two competitors. Dallas has a Week 17 matchup with the Cardinals, so if they remain tied in the loss column otherwise, the winner of that game has an advantage. Dallas’ only loss came in Week 1 against the Bucs, but now the Cowboys are ahead of them in the loss column, crucial as head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker.

What are the current important playoff odds for the Cowboys? Which games on this week’s schedule can help Dallas now?

Where do Dolphins’ playoff odds stand after Week 16?

Where do Dolphins’ playoff odds stand after Week 16?

For the past few weeks, the Miami Dolphins have been chasing the odds to secure a postseason berth in 2020. Miami, who is among a crowded group of AFC teams with 10+ wins this season, is hoping to avoid being the one AFC contender with 10 wins that misses the postseason action this season: that is guaranteed to happen to someone next weekend. But the odds appear to finally be in Miami’s favor after several weeks of being forecasted as the team on the outside looking in.

How good Miami’s odds are depend on where you look, but FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projections currently peg Miami with 73% odds to make the postseason with one game left to play. There are four clinching scenarios for Miami entering next weekend, offering Miami a lot more attractive alternatives to “win or go home”, which is what the forecast called for over the past several weeks. .

Those four pathways are as follows:

  • Defeat the Buffalo Bills to move to 11-5
  • A Cleveland Browns loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers
  • A Baltimore Ravens loss to the Cincinnati Bengals
  • An Indianapolis Colts loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars

Even with a loss to Buffalo, FiveThirtyEight still offers Miami a 65% chance of making the dance at 10-6. And the odds are better elsewhere, too. ESPN’s Football Power Index offers Miami an 82$ chance to make the postseason.

After the emotional highs of the win over the Raiders, the Dolphins must stay focused to finish the job. But this is what they’ve been working towards all season. And, against the odds, it is here for the taking in Week 17. And if that materializes, it will be fun to see not “if” the Dolphins can make the playoffs but rather who will they face? And what kind of fight the young Dolphins can afford any team they draw in the bracket.

Moment of truth: Ravens’ playoff chances at stake in Week 14 matchup vs. Browns

Baltimore Ravens Week 14 matchup vs. the Cleveland Browns will likely determine if Baltimore makes the NFL playoffs this season or not.

Everything is on the line for the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14. Sitting at 7-5, the Ravens will take on the 9-3 Cleveland Browns on “Monday Night Football” in what will be a defining moment of their season. If they want another shot at the playoffs, they need to win tonight.

Technically, this game isn’t a must-win scenario that will see Baltimore get booted from contention if they lose or lock in a spot if they win. But realistically, a loss would be a devastating blow to the Ravens’ playoff hopes that would all but eliminate them without a ton of luck and quite a bit of math creating a back door.

Entering this game, Baltimore currently has a 63% chance of making the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight’s calculator. Beating Cleveland would take that up to 88% while a loss would tank the Ravens’ chances down to just 36%.

Baltimore hasn’t performed as expected this season due to a ton of different reasons, but are fresh off beating the Dallas Cowboys 34-17 Tuesday. The Browns are in a far better spot with a four-game winning streak and are coming off a stunning 41-35 beating of the Tennessee Titans that had Cleveland up 38-7 at halftime. However, neither team is guaranteed a playoff berth right now, even if the Browns’ chances are significantly higher.

While Cleveland has looked like the better team as of late, there’s reason to believe Baltimore can get the better of them tonight. The Ravens absolutely dominated the Browns in Week 1 en route to a 38-6 win. Baltimore held Cleveland to 306 total yards of offense and created three turnovers while quarterback Lamar Jackson had his best game of the season, finishing with a 152.1 passer rating (out of 158.3). However, a lot has changed since then.

The Browns came into Week 14 with the No. 2 rushing attack in the league. Running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have helped Cleveland rush for a combined 1,893 yards, averaging over 150 yards on the ground per game. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been on fire lately, seeing a clean pocket thanks to the Browns’ stellar offensive line. Over the last two weeks, Mayfield has completed nearly 71% of his passes for 592 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions, for a 133.3 passer rating.

That will be a lot for the Ravens’ defense to overcome and they already have a lot to improve upon from last week’s game against the Cowboys. Granted, Baltimore had a good excuse for their sloppy play with players still on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and a wonky schedule, but the defense struggled to execute against the Cowboys despite what the scoreboard read at the end of regulation. The Ravens allowed one of the worst offenses in the NFL to gain 388 total yards. However, the real concern was how Baltimore fared against arguably the worst offensive line in the game right now, seeing running back Ezekiel Elliott average 4.3 yards-per-carry while only sacking quarterback Andy Dalton once.

But it’s worth noting the Ravens’ offense and defense have been hot-and-cold this season, with no clear indication which version we’ll see each week. Where the defense was pretty cold and the offense looked like their old selves in Week 13, the previous week was a flip of that against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This week, who knows?

But with their playoff hopes very much on the line this week against a very good Cleveland team, Baltimore needs to be hot on both sides of the ball for all 60 minutes. With four weeks left in the regular season, there is no room for error if the Ravens want to make the playoffs.

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Where do Dolphins’ playoff odds stand after Week 14?

Where do Dolphins’ playoff odds stand after Week 14?

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The Miami Dolphins are now 8-5 on the season and no matter what will enter Week 15 against the New England Patriots as the AFC’s 7th-seed in the conference standings. With the expanded playoffs in 2020, the Dolphins are right on the fringe of the postseason and will play 16 meaningful football games this season after seeing their season in 2019 never get off the ground until it was too late.

But with a three-game schedule left featuring the New England Patriots, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins are not afforded the same luxury as their number one threat to the postseason at this juncture, the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore’s remaining strength of schedule (they play the 9-3 Browns today on Monday Night Football to close Week 14), through Weeks 15-17 is much less imposing. Baltimore will face the New York Giants, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

How does the math favor the Dolphins?  FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projections currently favors Baltimore over Miami for the odds to secure a postseason berth. Miami is currently given a 33% chance to make the postseason whereas the Ravens are afforded 64% odds. If the Ravens win tonight against Cleveland, Miami’s odds are cut to just 27%.

Conversely, a Browns win against Baltimore and wins for the Dolphins over the next two weeks will guarantee the Dolphins a playoff berth regardless of what circumstances meet the Dolphins in Week 17 against the Buffalo Bills. Winning against New England and Las Vegas isn’t a shoo-in for the Dolphins and Miami must decipher how healthy they are after a brutal afternoon against the Kansas City Chiefs saw TE Mike Gesicki and WR DeVante Parker leave the game early due to injuries. If the Dolphins offense must operate without both of those talents over the next two games, winning becomes suddenly much more complicated and the Dolphins’ lack of depth (and recent string of poor luck with injuries) may catch up with them before the end of the season.

But for now, the rooting interest of the Dolphins is clear: the Cleveland Browns can do the Dolphins a major favor with a win tonight against the Ravens to open the door for a 10-win Miami team to make the postseason.

ESPN’s Football Power Index pushes Dolphins’ playoff odds to 50%

ESPN’s Football Power Index pushes Dolphins’ playoff odds to 50%

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This is turning into quite the season for the Miami Dolphins. First, Miami starts the season 0-2 and falls off the pace in the AFC East to their divisional rival to the north (the Buffalo Bills). The Dolphins bounced back on the road on a short week to win against Jacksonville in dominating fashion before dropping another home game to a top-tier team, the Seattle Seahawks. Since then? The Dolphins have found their groove in all three phases of the game and they haven’t lost since.

The end result? Miami now sits at 5-3 at the midway point of the 2020 NFL season, their best mark through 8 games since 2014. And even better yet, the Dolphins’ remaining strength of schedule is among the 10 easiest in the NFL. Yes, Miami will need to play the Bills in January (in Buffalo) and the Chiefs in December. But of the remaining teams on Miami’s schedule, five have losing records at this point in time.

It bodes well for a potential postseason push from the Dolphins, assuming the team takes care of business and continues to perform at the level we’ve seen from the past month and a half. How likely is that to materialize? It depends on where you look. But ESPN’s Football Power Index currently offers a promising forecast for Miami’s playoff hopes: 50 percent. Flip a coin.

FPI simulates each remaining game on the schedule thousands of times and tallies the average end result — and Miami is (on average) finishing the season 4-4 in their final eight games to check in with a 9-7 record on the season. About half the time, those simulated results are good enough to get the Dolphins into the postseason. Who knows what the ceiling really is of this team amid the Dolphins’ recent quarterback change; but if Tua Tagovailoa plays like he did against Arizona week in and week out, the law of averages applied by FPI may still be selling the Dolphins short.

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Dolphins’ playoff odds near 40%

ESPN’s Football Power Index ranks Dolphins’ playoff odds near 40%

As the Miami Dolphins continue to gel and improve as a football team this season, one can’t help but begin to shift their gaze to the start of the 2021 calendar year — specifically when the NFL holds their upcoming slate of playoff games. Could the Dolphins really be a surprise participant in the postseason in year two of the Brian Flores era? A lot of that is going to be determined by health, by the play of rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa and inevitably a few lucky bounces of the ball.

But it is possible. Probable? Not yet, although the Dolphins odds for a run at the postseason are certainly swelling depending on where you look. One such resource, ESPN’s Football Power Index, currently clocks the Dolphins with nearly a 40% chance to make the postseason this year as the team braces to play their eight game of the season.

FPI simulates each remaining game on the schedule thousands of times and tallies the average end result. Dolphins fans are likely to enjoy the latest forecasts, which peg the Dolphins to win an average of 8.4 games on the season. So again, one lucky bounce of the ball could take that average projection and boost Miami to 9 wins, in which their odds would certainly sit higher than 40%. And it isn’t just odds to win a wildcard spot, either. The Dolphins currently hold a 15.2% chance to win the AFC East division as things currently stand as well — and with a head to head game left remaining against the Bills, Miami may be on a collision course for a winner take all clash with the Bills in Week 17.

Those hopes are aided by Buffalo’s strength of schedule between now and then; as it is significantly more difficult than what Miami has left on their plate.

This is, of course, a lot of speculation. We’d be better off taking it one day and one week at a time, just like Brian Flores preaches to his players.

 

Texans’ chances to make the playoffs dip to 35% following loss to the Chiefs

The Houston Texans’ chances to make the postseason dropped to 35% following their 34-20 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Winning in Week 1 is significant in the NFL for a variety of reasons.

To illustrate the disparity in trajectory between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans after Thursday night’s 34-20 Kansas City victory, Pro Football Focus posted the chances for both team in two different categories.

For Houston, it was their odds to make the playoffs. Pro Football Focus says they are 35%.

For Kansas City, their chances to make the Super Bowl increased to 33%.

The methodology wasn’t revealed, and no one needs to see Imperial College data to accept the veracity.

In the context of a Bill O’Brien-coached team, Week 1 doesn’t matter relative to playoff chances. Three out of O’Brien’s four playoff seasons started out with Houston dropping the first game.

Much like with a win itself, it is how a team responds throughout the course of the season that determines whether they make make the playoffs or spend early January watching the playoffs from a warmer clime.

Houston has a pretty good idea what went wrong against the Chiefs, but they have to fix it fast as the Baltimore Ravens come to NRG Stadium on Sept. 20. The Texans will have a challenge on their hands if they wish to avoid an 0-2 start.