Straws on a Camel’s Back: 5 biggest plays from Cowboys’ Week 9 defeat

Which play was the nail in the coffin? When did the Cowboys officially go from favorites to likely losers? Dissecting the game by EPA, WPA impact outlines the key turning points. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys rode into Week 9 with a six-game winning streak and their quarterback, Dak Prescott, returning from an injured calf that held him out the prior week. With a high-powered offense and a defense coming off of their best game of the season, the Cowboys hosted the Denver Broncos in a rare noon kickoff at AT&T Stadium.

The Broncos entered the matchup with a six-game winning streak of their own, winners of six consecutive matchups with the Cowboys going back to the 1995 season. For the season, the Broncos were 4-4 losing four in a row before edging by the Washington Football Team with a 17-10 win.

On paper, this was a game that the Cowboys were favored to win easily. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Broncos were having none of that.  A mixture of failed third and fourth-down conversions for the offense and big plays allowed by the defense added up to a bad day for Cowboys fans as the Broncos won, 30-16. Those sixteen points scored by Dallas made the score appear closer than the game actually was. Denver’s defense set the tone early and brought a lot of pressure against Prescott while the Broncos’ offense broke tackles and gashed the Cowboys with big plays. Sometimes you’re the hammer, sometimes you’re the nail.

Here are the five biggest plays of the game using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability models from rbsdm.com. EPA is a formula that takes historical data and applies it to every play to determine if it increases or decreases a team’s expected points given the outcome of that play.  Every down and distance has a level of expected points; the likelihood a team will score on that particular drive based on that situation. Therefore EPA measures the shift in expected points as a result of a specific play.

Even with everything around him falling apart, Cowboys’ Micah Parsons shines on

The Dallas Cowboys couldn’t do much right on Sunday, but as usual, Micah Parsons came to play with reckless abandon. | From @TimLettiero

Dallas has had their fair share of messy games this season, however they had managed to pull out a victory in all of them and had never downright not shown up. That was before Week 9 against the Denver Broncos. In Arlington of all places, neither the offense nor the defense came out firing. The Cowboys lacked energy, cohesion and performance for four quarters in a thumping defeat, 30-16.

After being stymied their opening drive, Denver easily walked down the field on their next possession for a score and when Dallas tried to respond they missed their second consecutive fourth-down conversion. That set the tone for the remainder of the game and things rolled downhill from there. Early and often, the Dallas defense struggled against the run. Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams feasted off tackle on what seemed to be no edge presence for Dallas. In the passing game, QB Teddy Bridgewater methodically picked the secondary apart, managing the game as well as one could.

As optimists say, there is always a silver lining and the Cowboys most notable one is their Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, linebacker Micah Parsons.

Parsons has a unique skillset that allows him to play almost any position in the front seven with elite athleticism, size and strength. The 6-foot-3, 245 pounder has the ability to rush the QB as well as drop into the flats or across the middle in coverage and Sunday he showcased it all. With back-to-back weeks of 10+ tackles and three for a loss, Parsons puts himself in elite company.

Parsons made his presence felt early and often as his finesse in the passing game allowed him to get to Bridgewater twice on his own on the day and once with teammates. His 2.5 sacks double what he had previously, totaling five through eight games.

Parsons showed off why he is more than a pass rusher as well.

While located just a bit inside from the slot, he recognizes the bubble screen to Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy and uses his elite closing speed to make the tackle on the boundaries. Plays like this don’t light up the stat sheet but show how special Parsons is.

[vertical-gallery id=685389][listicle id=685470][listicle id=685468][lawrence-newsletter]

 

Cowboys Report Card, Snap Counts: Who played, and who played well are 2 different things

Don’t tell mom, but the babysitter let the kids stay up too late and didn’t make them study. The Cowboys failed their midterms and dropped to 6-2. Position grades on deck. | From @Zeke_Barrera

The Dallas Cowboys saw their six-game win streak snapped at the hands of the Denver Broncos, who extended their own win streak over Dallas to seven games. It was a beatdown reminiscent of their last matchup in Week 2 of the 2017 season, where the Cowboys were walloped seemingly out of nowhere in Denver, 42-17.

For whatever the reason, it just wasn’t the Cowboys day, with several of their key players having off-games and their typical aggressive play style working against them. Safe to say, this week’s report card won’t be hanging on any refrigerators, and will likely be have to be returned with a parent signature.

Here’s how the Cowboys graded out in Week 9, along with playtime percentage breakdown.

What We Learned: Any Given Sunday mantra shows Cowboys to be better prepared

Rust is real, Steele is Steele and the Broncos feasted on a Sunday brunch meal. Here’s what we learned from Sunday’s loss. | From @CDPiglet

The 6-1 Dallas Cowboys went up against the Denver Broncos, a club that was 0-4 against winning teams, and showed what can happen when one team just plays a lot better then another in the NFL. The Cowboys had never been down double digits in a game, had averaged 40 points and were undefeated at AT&T Stadium this season. Denver came into their house and out played them, at one point leading 30-0.

It was a complete and sound beating. The Broncos had more passing yards, more than double Dallas’ rushing yards, were better in yards per play, and had 118 more total yards than one of the best offenses in football. Denver had more first downs, won the turnover battle, were better on third and fourth down conversions, and had 20 more minutes of time of possession.

Some say teams learn more from losses than they do from wins, and for the first time this season the Cowboys were outplayed by an opponent. There is a lot that can be learned from a blowout loss like Dallas had against the Broncos.

Cowboys get close to best-case scenario Sunday after worst-possible performance

2021’s first half ends with a whimper for Dallas but fortunately most of the other NFC leaders had bad days as well. Miss us with the “good loss” participation trophies, here’s the playoff impact of Week 9.

Things couldn’t have gone much more wrong for the Dallas Cowboys early on Sunday. Throughout the week, the line makers, the media and the fan base all felt that Sunday was going to be an exclamation on an incredible first half of the 2021 season. The team had just proven they were good enough to win on the road with a backup quarterback who hadn’t started a game before in his entire career. They were matched up against a club who dominated bad teams but were dominated by good ones to this point in the season, the 4-4 Denver Broncos.

The line crept up to double-digits. Dallas averaged a 40 burger in their three home wins thus far. The game started with a 54-yard Tony Pollard kick return and though Dallas failed on a fourth-and-1 run they should’ve checked out of, things still looked bright when the defense apparently carried over the momentum from Minnesota, making the Broncos lose yardage on both first and second down before an incompletion completed the three and out. After that, though, the rest of the early afternoon was all downhill and Dallas found themselves trailing 30-0 midway through the fourth quarter. An embarrassing lowlight of a performance threatened to break a 30-year streak of scoring at home, before two garbage-time scores. The Cowboys fell to 6-2 and saw adversity in the mirror for the first time this campaign.

But not to worry, the football gods gave them a reprieve with the rest of Sunday’s action. Here’s a look at how most of the other important results from Week 9 kept Dallas’ self-inflicted damage close to minimum.

 

Listless, rhythmless Cowboys suffer humiliating 30-16 home loss to Broncos

The Cowboys don’t tend to play well in early games at AT&T. They’ve never looked this bad, though, as they fall at home for the first time in 2021. A game recap. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Adversity has finally found the 2021 Dallas Cowboys. For the first time since early in the 2020 campaign, head coach Mike McCarthy is going to have to convince his troops they are indeed better, much better, than the performance they put on the field.

Dallas returned to the supposedly-friendly confines of AT&T Stadium Sunday, where they averaged 40 points a contest so far this season, but they could not achieve that feat. Nor 30. Nor 20. They didn’t even get past 10 until under one minute left in the game.  In fact, Dallas was shutout until garbage time when trailing 30-0, finally got something going. Dallas fell, 30-16, to drop to 6-2 on the season at the halfway mark.

Winners of six straight on the heels of as moral victory an opening-season loss can be, the fanbase and organization has been flying high for the last two month. Through various injuries, COVID protocol absences and more, it seemed that nothing could derail the Cowboys’ full-steam ahead efforts in Mike McCarthy’s second season. With their Sunday night win over the Minnesota Vikings, with backup, no-start Cooper Rush at the helm, Dallas appeared capable of winning in any environment.

Welcome to Week 9.

The Dallas Cowboys welcomed in the Denver Broncos, a team they face only every four years but hadn’t defeated since the Super Bowl campaign of 1995. That streak will unfortunately continue as the Broncos embarrassed Dallas through all three phases.

Quarterback Dak Prescott missed several open receivers throughout the contest. The passing targets dropped several catchable passes. Terence Steele and the offensive line didn’t do a great job of protection either as Tyron Smith missed his first game of the season. The team entered Broncos’ territory on the opening kickoff, but couldn’t convert a fourth-down conversion. They made it to the Broncos’ 20 on the next drive, but again failed to convert.

They didn’t make it back into Broncos’ territory again until under six minutes remaining in the game.

The defense was run over, run around and ran past on numerous occasions making Javonte Williams and Tim Patrick into stars for the game. The team ran for almost 200 yards on the game and Teddy Bridgewater and company converted eight of 15 third downs after Dallas held Minnesota to 1-for-13 just a week ago. As a result, Denver had four different scoring drives of at least 10 plays.

Even the special teams couldn’t get things done, muffing a punt, failing to down one and then making the weirdest mistake of all. To start the second half, Dallas got a three and out and blocked a punt, only Nahshon Wright touched it and because the Broncos recovered beyond the line-to-go, they kept possession then marched down the field for a field goal.

It was that kind of game.

Dallas entered the contest as almost 10-point favorites, leading the league in total offense and third in scoring. Their defense was supposed to be up and coming.

All of those things were shredded on Sunday against the Broncos.

For the first time this season, Dallas will have to go through a week of practice with doubt in their minds. What they tried to do, didn’t work. Their halftime adjustments made no difference. Kellen Moore and Dan Quinn didn’t coordinate a winning effort and now they will have to figure out what went wrong.

Throughout the season, Dallas hasn’t played perfectly, giving the coaching staff things to harp on despite racking up victories. Now they’ll have to figure out how to get out of a funk before their next game.

WATCH: Cowboys’ Prescott finds Turner for pair of TDs to avoid shutout

There weren’t many positives on Sunday for Dallas, but Malik Turner grabbed a pair of scores to avoid the shutout and salvage some pride.

Nothing has gone right for the Dallas Cowboys against the Broncos at home. Down 30-0, quarterback Dak Prescott and the offense marched onto the field late in the fourth quarter with nothing to gain but their first score of the game and pride.

Dallas put together a nine-play, 75-yard drive in garbage time, capped off by a five-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Malik Turner to escape the first shutout for the Cowboys in AT&T Stadium.

Turner was the player who blocked the punt on the weird conversion for Denver on the first drive of the first half. The reserve receiver was making plays all over the field when the stars watched on the sideline.

The NFL might’ve switched the broadcast off of the Cowboys game, but Dallas still had some fireworks late, regardless of consequence. After a quick defensive stop, Prescott surprisingly returned to the field and repeated the previous drive’s conclusion with a touchdown pass to Turner and a 2-point conversion on the ground

Of all Cowboys receivers to have a big day, Turner was probably right down at the bottom of the list but there’s something to be said for being stubborn and adding points to feel positivity instead of walking to the locker room with their heads down.

If there’s anything good for Dallas to take away from the brutal loss, it’s a bit of rhythm after struggling all day. The Cowboys drop to 6-2 and have to flush this loss before playing the Falcons next week, who took down the Saints in Week 9.

Cowboys sleepwalk through 1st half, wake up to 16-0 halftime deficit to Broncos

A look at what has gone wrong in the Dallas Cowboys’ Week 9 home game against the Denver Broncos. It’s been a lot.

The Dallas Cowboys may have thought it was one thing, but this Week 9 matchup against the Denver Broncos is decidedly something else. Coming home after two road wins bookended their bye week, the 6-1 Cowboys were welcoming back their star quarterback. Dak Prescott missed the win in Week 8 and wasn’t very sharp in the first half of his return.

The team has sorely missed Tyron Smith, out with an ankle injury and to compound things RB Ezekiel Elliott came up hobbled after a first-quarter run and has looked hurt in the few snaps he played since. If anyone was expecting one of the other units to step up, they have been sorely disappointed. The Cowboys are off on all accounts, and find themselves down 16-0 at intermission.

With Prescott recovering from a calf injury and without their starting left tackle, the Cowboys seem intent on trying to give Terence Steele help.

Dallas went for it, and failed, on their opening two possessions of the game and the Broncos took offense to it and have been rolling ever since, scoring on three consecutive drives.

After a strong defensive effort on their first possession, Dallas has been run over, run around and run past as Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense has humbled whatever feelings of pride Dan Quinn’s unit had after their effort in Minnesota.

Some quick notes:

  • Offense went pass on 1st down four straight times for 0 yards, then followed it up with runs on 2nd and 10.
  • Special teams with errors on first two plays, Cedrick Wilson muffed the punt but Joseph recovered, then Goodwin wasn’t aware of where the punt was with a chance to pin Denver deep to start 2nd quarter
  • It was a bad sign when RB Javonte Williams carried defensive tackle Justin Hamilton for six yards on the second Broncos possession and the tackling never improved throughout the first half. The Broncos are averaging 5.6 yards per run.
  • Trevon Diggs is having a hideous game. He was called for pass interference in the end zone, gave up a big bomb for a score to Tim Patrick later and at the end of the half held Patrick to negate a Jourdan Lewis interception on the other side of the filed.
  • Dak Prescott is 5 for 14 for 75 yards and a 54.2 passer rating.
  • Teddy Bridgewater is 12for 16 passing for 154 yards and a 125.5 passer rating.
  • The Broncos get the ball to start the third quarter.
  • The Cowboys have three sacks of which Micah Parsons has 1.5 of them.

[vertical-gallery id=685247][listicle id=685260][lawrence-newsletter]

Week 9 Inactives: Cowboys welcome back Dak Prescott as Tyron Smith sits

The Cowboys welcome back Dak Prescott and avoid the loss of CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, but are without Tyron Smith versus the Broncos. | From @CDBurnett7

After a week of nagging injuries for the pair of star wide receivers, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are active alongside quarterback Dak Prescott, making his return after a week off due to injury in the Minnesota win.

Dallas only has four inactives, the biggest being left tackle Tyron Smith who injured his ankle against the Vikings. Right tackle La’el Collins is back at his starting spot versus Denver while backup Terence Steele shifted to the left side, preparing to start in Smith’s absence.

With Prescott back, third-string quarterback Will Grier is inactive while wide receiver Simi Fehoko and safety Israel Mukuamu won’t see the field for at least another week.

The Broncos have had a carousel of injuries and COVID issues, with quarterback Drew Lock in the protocol so starter Teddy Bridgewater will be without a serviceable backup. Starting left tackle Garrett Bolles is out, similar to Dallas’ loss at the position while outside linebacker Malik Reed is also inactive for the contest.

[vertical-gallery id=685247][listicle id=685260][lawrence-related id=685266][lawrence-newsletter]

Broncos lose QB, starting TE for Cowboys game due to COVID protocols

The Cowboys’ opponent lost a key piece of their offense and two safety nets due to COVID-19 protocols. Here’s the fallout. | From @KDDrummondNFL

There has been plenty of attention being paid to the COVID-19 protocols in the NFL this past week due to reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers testing positive. The star QB will miss Sunday’s matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, and potentially next week’s game as well depending on his ability to test negative now that, according to him, he is no longer symptomatic. That isn’t the only COVID news of the weekend though.

The Dallas Cowboys’ Sunday opponent has now ruled out three of their players due to protocols, and it includes on of their quarterbacks. Backup Drew Lock, along with tight end Noah Fant have been ruled out of Sunday’s game.

Lock of course lost a training camp battle with Teddy Bridgewater to be the team’s starting quarterback, but would have been in line to play in Bridgewater’s season of injuries continues. He’s had a concussion and recently suffered foot and quad injuries, though the team refused to turn to Lock, even on a short week.

Brett Rypien will now backup Bridgewater in this game.

Meanwhile Fant is the team’s starting tight end and is second on the team in receptions (37) and targets (53) and tied for the team lead in touchdowns (3).

His loss is a major blow, especially considering his backup, Albert Okwuegbunam is questionable after being limited in practice all week with a knee injury.

Netane Muti is a backup offensive lineman.

[vertical-gallery id=685247][listicle id=685260][lawrence-newsletter]