There isn’t a team in the National Football Conference with as much on the line Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys. While the 5-4 club will square off against a foe not expected to compete for a playoff spot themselves, the Detroit Lions still have a lot to say about the NFC playoff race.

With Dallas in a tie atop the NFC East with the Philadelphia Eagles, they cannot afford a slip up to an inferior opponent. Thusly, ESPN’s Brian Burke has crunched the numbers and according to their propietary formula, Dallas’ swing in playoff odds between a win and a loss is 23%, most in the conference.

According to stats website Five Thirty-Eight, Dallas currently has a 49% chance of making the playoffs, a 44% chance of winning the NFC East, a one percent chance of earning a bye and a two percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Football Outsiders has a much rosier picture painted, giving Dallas a 67% chance of making the playoffs, 63% chance of winning the NFC East and a 2.2% chance of earning one of the byes. They give the Cowboys a 8.8% chance of winning the conference, and a 4.2% chance of winning the whole thing.

Of course, Dallas’ chances of doing more than defend their NFC East crown is contingent on the rest of the schedule. They’ll be on the field, but their interests will be well represented in the rest of the schedule.

Here’s a look at who can help Dallas the most.

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AFC over NFC

That pretty much goes without saying at this point, so rooting for:

Denver Broncos over Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The Panthers will be without Cam Newton for the rest of the year and have been performing like a fringe playoff team despite rolling with Kyle Allen at center. The Falcons tried to help Dallas out last week when they upset the Saints, but the Cowboys didn’t take advantage of it. Now, the Cowboys will be looking for more help, but for wild-card space and not a playoff bye.

Go Falcons.

New Orleans Saints (7-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)

Technically Dallas isn’t out of the hunt for a playoff bye, so they’ll still be better served by the Saints losing than the Bucs, who are still a few games back in the wild-card race.

Go Bucs.

Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-1)

Same drill here, as long as Dallas is mathematically in the race for a bye week, root for the team with the better record to lose.

Go Cards.

Chicago Bears (4-5) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-4)

Both of these teams remain on the Cowboys schedule, so Dallas controls their own destiny over both squads as long as they win. Which will be a bigger threat to the Cowboys? Well, the Bears easy schedule led to their success last season, and their offense has not looked productive at all. Surprisingly, neither has Sean McVay’s attack with the Rams.

The question is, which will likely emerge before the season is out? The money is on that team being the Rams, so they need to pile up losses while they are still dysfunctional.

Go Bears.

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