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This is turning into quite the season for the Miami Dolphins. First, Miami starts the season 0-2 and falls off the pace in the AFC East to their divisional rival to the north (the Buffalo Bills). The Dolphins bounced back on the road on a short week to win against Jacksonville in dominating fashion before dropping another home game to a top-tier team, the Seattle Seahawks. Since then? The Dolphins have found their groove in all three phases of the game and they haven’t lost since.
The end result? Miami now sits at 5-3 at the midway point of the 2020 NFL season, their best mark through 8 games since 2014. And even better yet, the Dolphins’ remaining strength of schedule is among the 10 easiest in the NFL. Yes, Miami will need to play the Bills in January (in Buffalo) and the Chiefs in December. But of the remaining teams on Miami’s schedule, five have losing records at this point in time.
It bodes well for a potential postseason push from the Dolphins, assuming the team takes care of business and continues to perform at the level we’ve seen from the past month and a half. How likely is that to materialize? It depends on where you look. But ESPN’s Football Power Index currently offers a promising forecast for Miami’s playoff hopes: 50 percent. Flip a coin.
FPI simulates each remaining game on the schedule thousands of times and tallies the average end result — and Miami is (on average) finishing the season 4-4 in their final eight games to check in with a 9-7 record on the season. About half the time, those simulated results are good enough to get the Dolphins into the postseason. Who knows what the ceiling really is of this team amid the Dolphins’ recent quarterback change; but if Tua Tagovailoa plays like he did against Arizona week in and week out, the law of averages applied by FPI may still be selling the Dolphins short.
