Tag: Phillies Braves odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

NLDS Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves NLDS Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves continue their NL Division Series with Game 2 on Monday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0

Philadelphia won the NLDS opener 3-0 on Saturday. The Phillies advanced to the NLDS with a 2-0 sweep in an NL Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins. The Phillies are 12-4 since Sept. 18, including 2 wins in a 3-game set vs. the Braves in Atlanta from Sept. 18-20.

Bolstered by baseball’s top offense (5.85 runs per game), the NL East-champion Braves registered the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season. However, Atlanta was held to just 5 singles in Saturday’s setback.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Max Fried

Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Miami Marlins Tuesday (NLWS Game 1)
  • 2023 Road stats: 8-4, 3.16 ERA in 102 2/3 IP across 17 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Braves (regular season): 3-1, 3.09 ERA in 32 IP (2022-23)
  • Career in postseason: 2-3, 2.55 ERA in 42 1/3 IP over 7 starts (2022-23)

Fried went 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA across 14 regular-season starts. He registered a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 77 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 10-3 win at Washington Nationals Sept. 21
  • Finished the regular season on the Injured List due to a blister on his left index finger
  • 2023 home stats: 2-1, 3.86 ERA in 30 1/3 IP across 5 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 4-4, 3.62 ERA in 79 2/3 IP across 13 starts and 6 relief appearances
  • Career in postseason: 2-4, 4.43 ERA in 61 IP across 10 starts and 8 relief appearances (2018-22)

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Sunday at 8:06 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

Wheeler logged a sub-3.00 ERA each year from 2020-22. His ERA was higher this season but perhaps deceivingly so due to a .337 batting average on balls in play when opposing runners were in scoring position. The Phillies righty is a seasoned veteran with a strong October history, and he’s coming off a playoff start last week. Including last week’s Wild Card start against Miami, Wheeler owns a 2.28 ERA over his last 23 2/3 IP.

Fried has had a long layoff, so the October mound jitters may not be an apples-to-apples comparison.

The Phils are on a roll and feeling confident.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the best price on the visitors for this one: BACK PHILADELPHIA (+134).

Run line/Against the spread

Philadelphia tends to play in a ton of 1-run games, but we should want a lower price to investigate a Run Line play here.

PASS.

Over/Under

No lean either way: PASS.

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NLDS Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves open their NL Division Series with Game 1 Saturday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Braves won 8-5

Philadelphia advanced to the NLDS with a 2-0 sweep in an NL Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins. Including postseason and since Sept. 18, the Phillies are 11-4. That stretch opened with Philadelphia taking 2 of 3 from the Braves in Atlanta Sept. 18-20.

The NL East-champion Braves registered the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season. The wins were more tilted to the club’s offensive prowess: Atlanta led MLB in scoring (5.85 runs per game). The Braves’ 4.42 RPG allowed ranked 14th. Since Sept. 11, Atlanta pitching has been tagged with a 6.08 ERA.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in the regular season. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 innings across 22 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-6 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 27
  • 2023 road stats: 3-3, 2.75 ERA in 59 IP
  • Career vs. Braves (regular season): 2-2, 3.00 ERA in 48 IP
  • Owns a 1.23 ERA across 14 2/3 postseason innings

Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts. He authored a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 186 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-3 home victory vs. Washington Nationals last Saturday
  • 2023 home stats: 8-3, 4.35 ERA in 93 IP
  • Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 8-0, 1.90 ERA in 47 1/3 IP
  • Only postseason appearance: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 9-1 loss at Phillies Oct. 14, 2022

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Nobody hits lefty pitching better than the Braves. Atlanta clubbed an .870 OPS against port-siders during the regular season.

Strider had a solid season line; he was deserving of even better. The young right-hander was partly dinged by a .316 batting average on balls in play. But drilling down, we find that Strider was really behind the 8-ball in clutch situations. In inning-leadoff situations, he yielded a .402 BABIP. In all high-leverage scenarios, he was tagged by a .368 BIP.

Atlanta was in this position last year and fell to these Phillies in 4 games. This season, the Braves outscored the Phils 74-58.

If you’re the type of bettor who can’t lay $21 to win $10, this may not be the play for you, but there is value here. Getting Atlanta priced under -215 is real leverage. BACK THE BRAVES (-210).

Run line/Against the spread

Some bettors may like the -1.5-run action more. That’s the side if you don’t want to stick your neck out on the moneyline. But there is risk here, too; just a different kind. Good pitching plus rested bullpens plus a Philadelphia club that has played 53 one-run games (regular season) makes for risk of a tight, low-scoring October affair. PASS.

Over/Under

No lean either way: PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (82-68) and Atlanta Braves (96-54) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Tuesday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 7-4

The Phillies won 7-1 as -109 favorites as the Under (9.5) cashed in the series opener Monday. DH Kyle Schwarber hit a 483-foot, 2-run HR in the 6th inning, and Philadelphia won for the 3rd time in its last 4 games. The Phillies have a 3½-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the top NL Wild Card spot.

The Braves tied their season high for consecutive losses after dropping their 4th straight game Monday. However, Atlanta has secured a bye in the postseason and home field in the NLDS after the Milwaukee Brewers dropped a 1-0 decision at the St. Louis Cardinals.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sánchez vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Sánchez (2-4, 3.40 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 87 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 4-1 home loss vs. Braves Wednesday
  • 2023 road stats: 0-0, 1.29 ERA (21 IP, 3 ER) in 4 starts
  • Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

Strider (17-5, 3.73 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 169 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in Wednesday’s victory at Phillies
  • 2023 home stats: 6-3, 4.33 ERA (81 IP, 39 ER) in 14 starts
  • 2023 vs. Phillies: 3-0, 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER) in 3 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 7-0, 1.56 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 7 ER) in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:51 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 2

Moneyline

It’s unlikely that the Braves (-225) will lose back-to-back home games vs. the Phillies, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when Atlanta should win by multiple runs.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are 26-17 on the run line this season in divisional matchups, according to TeamRankings.com. They’ve also won 14 of Strider’s last 19 starts by multiple runs.

The Phillies are an MLB-worst 33-48 on the run line this year after a win and have struggled vs. Strider in the regular season.

BET BRAVES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Strider has allowed 1 or fewer ER in 4 of his last 6 starts, and Sánchez has allowed 3 or fewer in 14 of his 16 outings this season. The Under is 41-32-8 (56.2%) this year when the Phillies are coming off a win and should hit again Tuesday with Strider on the mound for the Braves.

BET UNDER 9 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (81-68) and Atlanta Braves (96-53) open up a 3-game set at Truist Park Monday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 7-3

The Phillies took 2 of 3 on the road at the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend but have still dropped 6 of their last 10 games. Philadelphia had lost 3 of 4 games to the Atlanta Braves in the previous series. The Phillies are still 3 1/2 games up on the rest of the fray for the top NL Wild Card spot. They need to remain focused though because there are 5 teams within 6 1/2 games of them.

Atlanta was swept in a 3-game series at the Miami Marlins over the weekend, allowing 36 runs in the series. The Braves have already clinched the division and are 4 1/2 games up on the Los Angeles Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Wheeler (11-6, 3.70 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 175 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K Tuesday against the Braves
  • Last 5 regular season starts vs. Braves: 3-0, 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 41 K in 33 IP

Wright (0-2, 7.48 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.89 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 21 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K last Monday against Phillies
  • Last 5 regular season starts vs. Phillies: 2-3, 5.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 21 K in 28 IP

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Braves 5

Moneyline

Wheeler doesn’t have many back-to-back rough outings, and the Phils are facing a guy who is making just his 2nd start since May. The Phillies have more to play for, and the Braves have been absolutely shellacked the last 3 days.

I’m taking the PHILLIES (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

I like the Braves side here, but not the price.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Phillies are 6-4 O/U over the last 10, and the Braves are 8-2. The Over is 5-4-1 in the last 10 meetings between the teams, and the Over cashed in 3 of the 4 meetings last week. Wheeler could always hurl a gem to cash the Under, but all the momentum says we’re going Over.

Take the OVER 9.5 (-105).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-21) play the finale of a 4-game set at Truist Field Sunday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Phils squeaked out a 2-1 victory Saturday for a 2nd straight win after dropping the series opener Thursday. Philadelphia has been playing .500 ball all month, going 5-5, 10-10 and 15-15 over its last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. OF Bryce Harper has settled in after returning from Tommy John surgery, hitting .321 with 3 homers and 8 RBIs in 22 games.

The Braves are still sitting pretty atop the NL East with a 4.5-game lead over the Miami Marlins. 1B Matt Olson (14), OF Ronald Acuna (11), C Sean Murphy (11), DH Marcell Ozuna (11) and 2B Ozzie Albies (10) have all hit at least 10 home runs for Atlanta. The Braves have taken care of business in the division at 11-5 but are just 14-14 at home thus far.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Dylan Covey vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 1st start and 3rd appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 9 innings for the Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.

  • Threw 5 IP in relief Tuesday, allowing 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 6 K against the Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Throws a sinker, cutter, slider and changeup; throws the cutter 34% of the time to a .231 OBA

Strider (4-2, 2.97 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and an MLB-leading 15.1 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 R (2 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 11 K in an 8-1 loss vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
  • 3 career starts vs. Phillies: 3-0, 1.45 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 29 K in 18 2/3 IP

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (+105) | Braves -1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Strider is just blowing everyone away with 7 or more K’s in his last 7 starts and 10-plus K’s in 4 of those outings. He has been hittable, though, with a 4.23 ERA over his past 5 starts. He’s the same pitcher at home as he is on the road, and the Braves have a sizeable advantage on the mound Sunday. The Phils are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the Braves but just 6-13 in the last 19 in Atlanta.

No chance we’re taking the -250 ML here, but if you head to the First 5 Innings section, WILL BOTH TEAMS SCORE 1 OR MORE RUNS IN THE FIRST 5 INNINGS? YES (-165) is at a suitable price with the way Strider has been giving up runs.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are priced the way they should be with the steep advantage they have on the mound. However, they have just 2 wins by multiple runs in the last 10 games. If you’re feeling the Braves here, head to the Win/Total section. There’s a prop there for BRAVES AND OVER 6.5 TOTAL RUNS (-115) at a solid price if we can stay under 10 runs.

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Over/Under

It’s 72 degrees with a 9-mph breeze blowing out toward left-center. I think the 9 total is pretty spot on here. The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the totals in Strider’s 3 career starts vs. Philadelphia are 7, 14 and 9. So we’re already leaning toward the Over here, but I just don’t see the incentive to reach for 10 runs to avoid a push.

PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (24-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-20) clash in a Saturday afternoon affair at Truist Park at 4:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

Philadelphia lost Thursday’s series opener 8-5 but bounced back with a 6-4 win Friday. The Game 2 victory marked just the 3rd road win for the Phillies since April 30.

Braves pitching owns a 3.70 ERA for the season (5th MLB). But a spate of walks and home runs has led to the club posting a 4.75 mark over its last 10 games.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Wheeler (3-4, 4.11 ERA) makes his 11th start of the season. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 57 IP.

  • Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate .671 OPS against him
  • Facing a Braves club that has logged a .947 OPS against southpaws and a .729 figure against right-handers
  • Has gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts

Morton (5-4, 3.61 ERA) is making his 10th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 52 1/3 IP.

  • Coming off a rough start where he allowed 6 ER over 5 IP (had logged a 2.32 ERA over previous 5 starts)
  • Philadelphia batters against Morton: .721 OPS aggregate

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-178) | Braves -1.5 (+146)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -122)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Braves are 11-4 in 1-run games and may be overrated a bit overall.

Looking at the starting pitching matchup, Wheeler has been hurt by a low 65.8% left-on-base rate, and Morton has been aided by a high 78.4% figure. Those are clutch plate appearances somewhat unfairly coloring the surface numbers of each hurler — to Wheeler’s detriment and Morton’s benefit.

Both starters also head into this contest on regular rest. That’s a boon for Wheeler and the Phillies; the right-hander has strong career and recent-season splits on such rest. With his solid history against Braves bats, and with Atlanta having a more average offense against right-handers, Philly is a lean.

Wheeler did go 108 pitches in his last start, however, and there is a slight pull toward an Under in this match-up. And the Run Line has more attractive pricing relative to the risk.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

While it’s juicier than we’d prefer, take the PHILLIES +1.5 (-178) for some of the reasons mentioned above.

There is also a prop bet we’d consider.

Wheeler has struck out at least 7 Braves in his last 5 starts against them. He has 7+ K’s in 2 of his last 3 starts, and they’re offering us plus-money for it. Atlanta isn’t striking out as frequently as it did last year, but Atlanta is still in the top half in terms of whiff ease at 8.71/game.

Take ZACK WHEELER OVER 6.5 K’S (+108).

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Over/Under

The books have the total handicapped well today, and the risk isn’t worth the reward. So let’s get creative.

Head to the Line/Total Parlays section on FanDuel, and let’s go with PHILLIES +2.5/OVER 6.5 (-125). That gives you a smaller total to hit, and the Phils get a couple of runs of insurance. These teams have combined for 10 runs or more in their last 4 meetings with Philadelphia taking 3 of 4.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-19) play the 2nd game of a 4-game NL East series Friday. The first pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 1-0

Philadelphia lost Thursday’s series opener 8-5 and heads into Friday’s game on a 5-game road losing skid. The Phillies are just 2-9 away from home since April 30.

The Braves won 11 of 19 games vs. the Phils last season. Atlanta has lost just 1 season series against Atlanta since 2018.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. LHP Jared Shuster

Walker (3-2, 5.79 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start this season. He owns a 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 46 2/3 IP.

  • Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate 1.010 OPS against him
  • Facing a Braves club that has logged a .947 OPS against southpaws and a .729 figure against right-handers
  • Gets a lot of ground balls but has been hurt by an 18.6% home run/fly ball rate

Shuster (1-2, 5.49 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 19 2/3 IP.

  • Facing a Philadelphia club that owns a whiff-laden .704 OPS vs. lefties (.757 OPS vs. righties)
  • The 24-year-old rookie went past 5 innings for the 1st time in his big league career last time out, logging 6 innings of 1-run ball vs. the Seattle Mariners Sunday

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-138) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Braves — partly due to an 11-4 mark in 1-run games — may well be a couple of games or so too far out over their skis.

Philly is a lean, but look to the Run Line for better value.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

TAKE PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-138).

The pricing here makes for some leverage, partially because Atlanta plays a lot of 1-run games.

The Phillies are averaging 4.30 runs per game (RPG), down from the 4.61 RPG they averaged a year ago. Philadelphia’s offense in recent losses has been overly impacted by poor numbers in clutch at-bats.

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Over/Under

This figure is predictably close to where the season averages — runs for and against — intersect. It is a fair number here: PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-26) and Atlanta Braves (30-19) swing into a 4-game NL East series Thursday. The first pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Atlanta won 11 of 19 meetings in 2022

Philadelphia is looking to snap a 4-game road losing streak. The Phillies are just 2-8 away from home since April 30.

The Braves are continuing a homestand that has thus far seen them go 3-3. Atlanta has been better on the road this season, going 17-7. The club is just 13-12 at home.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Dylan Dodd

Nola (4-3, 4.31 ERA) makes his 11th start. He owns a 1.07 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 62 2/3 innings.

  • Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate .796 OPS against him
  • Facing a Braves club that has logged a .939 OPS against southpaws and a .725 figure against right-handers

Dodd (2-1, 6.46 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has notched a 1.83 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 4.1 K/9 in 15 1/3 innings.

  • Being recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett for this start; last pitched in the majors on May 4
  • A 25-year-old rookie who has pitched a total of 33 2/3 innings at Triple-A

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:56 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies -106 (bet $106 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Braves +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: -102)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

Atlanta — partly due to an 11-4 mark in 1-run games — figures as a couple of games or so too far out over their skis. With Dodd on the mound, the Braves are vulnerable.

Philly has not been great against southpaws, but the club’s .684 OPS against left pitching is weighed down by a .281 batting average on balls in play. Nola is a consistent sort giving solid value to the PHILLIES (-106) line.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. The pricing here is not too competitive.

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Over/Under

Support numbers make for a somewhat bullish view of both bullpens. The price here is decent. Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 9 (-102).

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NLDS Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet Wednesday at 4:35 p.m. ET (FOX) at Truist Park in Game 2 in the best-of-5 NL Division Series. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0; the Braves won regular-season series 11-8

Philadelphia opened a 6-1 lead through 4 innings and held on to take Tuesday’s opener 7-6. The Phillies banged out 5 doubles among 12 hits and are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. The downside to the Braves rally in Tuesday’s game is that the back end of the Philly pen was heavily leveraged to get to the finish line.

The Braves went 13-1 in their last 14 home games in the regular season, and Tuesday’s setback came after being idle for 5 days. Atlanta did manage to rally and make things interesting. The Braves hit multiple home runs for their 8th time in their last 12 games. Over that stretch, Atlanta has logged a .799 OPS.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) logged a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 153 IP in 26 regular-season starts.

  • Kept the St. Louis Cardinals off the scoreboard in Friday Wild Card Series game: 6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K
  • Including the postseason, has allowed just 1 run in his last 21 1/3 IP
  • Owns a 2.38 ERA in his last 5 starts against Atlanta

Wright (21-5, 3.19 ERA) had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 180 1/3 IP in 30 starts in the regular season.

  • Faced Philadelphia 2 starts back (Sept. 24) and allowed 2R in 5 1/3 IP
  • Had 2.84 in 3 starts vs. Phillies in the regular season
  • Posted a 2.86 ERA in 103 2/3 IP at home this season

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:31 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -140 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-180) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

Wheeler was sharp in his postseason debut last week and makes this start on a preferred 4-day rest interval. He’s been a solid 3rd-time-through-the-oder guy who can perhaps lighten the load on the Philly bullpen just a tad.

Wright has a short 4-game postseason pitching record. It’s filled with a few too many walks and not many multi-inning stretches of dominance. Statcast quality-of-contact analytics are bearish on his 3.19 surface ERA.

Bet PHILADELPHIA (+120).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Both clubs tangle in 1-run games at a higher-than-average rate. The Phils were outscored by just 3 runs (88-85) in the regular-season series.

A line watch might be in order: A play on the Phillies +1.5 could make sense now at -180 after it was at -190.

Over/Under

The overall team-vs.-team analytics view of this series would tilt toward the Under. Tuesday’s lefty-lefty match-up — a platoon edge for both teams — and the overvalued mound particulars, and to some extent, Atlanta’s layoff, made the Over a strong play (and it hit with ease).

Wednesday’s game falls into more neutral conditions, but it is not priced attractively. AVOID.

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NLDS Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet Tuesday at 1:07 p.m. ET (FOX). The contest at Truist Park swings the NL East foes into a best-of-5 NL Division Series. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Regular-season series: Braves won 11-8 and outscored the Phillies 88-85

Philadelphia went 87-75 in the regular season and advanced to this series by sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in an NL Wild Card Series. The Phillies are 6-3 over their last 9 games away from home including the 2-game sweep of the Cards at Busch Stadium.

The Braves have been idle since the end of the regular season. Atlanta won the NL East with an overall record of 101-61 despite going 23-27 in April-May. The Braves have outscored opponents 65-28 while going 13-1 over their last 14 home games.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Max Fried

Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) logged a 1.33 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 155 1/3 IP across 29 regular-season starts. He did not pitch in the Wild Card Series.

  • Notched a 3.15 ERA in the 2nd half
  • Posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road vs. 4.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home
  • Last pitched Oct. 4 (6 runs allowed over 3 innings at Houston Astros); made 6 regular-season starts on 6 or more days of rest and posted a 2.90 ERA with an improved strikeout-to-walk ratio compared to other rest periods
  • Held Atlanta to a .664 OPS over 5 starts in 2022

Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA) logged 30 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.01 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 185 1/3 IP.

  • Held Phillies batters to a .692 OPS across 4 starts in 2022
  • Owns a 1.95 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last 60 IP
  • Last pitched Sept. 30 (1 run allowed over 5 innings vs. New York Mets); made 6 starts on 6 or more days of rest and notched a 3.63 ERA.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+107)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Respecting the prices here, which reflect the host Braves as an approximate two-thirds proposition.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Both clubs tangle in 1-run games at a higher-than-average rate. The Braves getting an early lead and working against the soft middle of the Philly bullpen is a plausible angle, but a potentially rusty Atlanta offense works against that too much.

Suarez is making his first career postseason start. Max Fried has pitched in 17 playoff games over the last 4 seasons (2018-21).

Bettors looking to leverage a bit of an Atlanta lean may want to consider a Braves Total Runs Over 3.5 (-150) or Over 4.5 (+112). Both bets could be workable if prices improve a bit.

Over/Under

The lefty-lefty match-up on the mound plays into platoon strengths for both sides. During the regular season, Philadelphia notched a .727 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .769 OPS vs. lefties. The Phillies own the league’s 3rd-best figure (.796 OPS) against southpaws since Aug. 1. Atlanta counters with respective OPS figures of .753 vs. right, .782 vs. left and .771 vs. left since Aug. 1.

Peg both starters as being a tad too far over their skis with their surface numbers. Playoff baseball is still a low-scoring proposition at its core, but the payoff here makes the OVER 7.5 (+100) a strong play.

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