The Atlanta Braves (4-4) go for a three-game sweep of the visiting Philadelphia Phillies (5-3) on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta took the first two games of the series, winning Friday 8-1 as a -123 favorite and 5-4 Saturday as a -136 fave. Braves 1B Freddie Freeman homered in each game and knocked in the eventual winning run Saturday with a seventh-inning fielder’s choice groundout.
LHP Matt Moore is the Phillies’ projected starting pitcher for the series finale. He failed to get out of the fourth inning in his first start of 2021, yielding 2 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks with 4 strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings of a no-decision vs. the New York Mets Monday. He played in Japan last season after pitching just two games for the Detroit Tigers in 2019.
- Last season in Japan: 6-3, 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 85 IP across 15 games
- Career vs. Braves: 1-0, 3.86 ERA (7 IP, 3 ER) in 1 start, a 6-3 win at Atlanta in 2017
LHP Drew Smyly is the Braves’ projected starter. He worked 6 innings and allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits and 1 walk with 8 K’s in a no-decision at the Washington Nationals Tuesday.
- Last season: 0-1, 3.42 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 10 ER) in 5 starts and 2 relief appearances for the San Francisco Giants
- Career vs. Phillies: 1 scoreless, hitless inning with 1 K in 2014 with the Tigers
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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Phillies 6, Braves 5
Money line (ML)
Back the PHILLIES (+135) for a HALF UNIT. It’s hard to picture the Phillies getting swept. They have too much talent. Moore started off OK in his first outing, retiring the first seven batters before losing command. If he does get in trouble vs. Atlanta, look for the Philly offense to come through in the late innings.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. Since I’m backing the Phillies ML, I’m not going to bother with looking for a little insurance – where they can lose by at least 1 run – and paying the -135 juice.
ATS records: Phillies 5-3 | Braves 4-4
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 9 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. After opening the season with 3 consecutive Unders, the Phillies have played 5 Overs in a row. The Braves are 4-1 O/U in their last five games.
O/U records: Phillies 5-3 | Braves 4-4
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| JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| 2021 MLB | 8-12 | 3-3 | -2.6375 |
| 2020 MLB | 80-59-1 | 39-21 | +24.79 |
| 2021 record (all sports) | 110-97-1 | 52-44 | +10.4125 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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