Tag: Phillies Braves odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (80-63) take on the Atlanta Braves (88-55) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 6-6

The Phillies had a 5-game winning streak snapped Thursday with a 5-3 loss at the Miami Marlins. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a 2 1/2-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the 2nd NL wild-card spot and 8 games behind Atlanta for the top spot.

Atlanta has cooled finally as it has dropped 4 of 5 games. The Braves have fallen 1 game behind the New York Mets for 1st place in the NL East. They’re still 21-9 over the last 30 games despite the skid. Atlanta is 32-15 against left-handed starters, which it’ll face Friday.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. LHP Max Fried

Suarez (9-5, 3.62 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 134 1/3 IP.

  • 3 starts against Atlanta this year: 0-2, 5.06 ERA, 16 IP, 16 H, 9 ER, 7 BB and 15 K
  • Could be wearing down with a 5.40 ERA over his last 4 starts

Fried (13-6, 2.50 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 169 1/3 IP.

  • 2 starts against Phillies this year: 0-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.8 K/9
  • Has a 1.84 ERA over his last 7 GS

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Money line

Fried has been too good of late, and he’ll neutralize the Phillies’ left-handed bats. Suarez hasn’t been good of late nor against Atlanta. OF Bryce Harper is hitting .180 with 2 homers in 39 at-bats this month and it’s in the bag if Fried continues to keep him under wraps.

The BRAVES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-125) is at a suitable price to take.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m leaning toward the Phillies here. They’re 37-31 on the RL on the road and are playing a good brand of baseball. I just think Atlanta has more on the pitching side. LEAN PHILLIES +1.5 (-140).

Over/Under

The wind is blowing in from right-center field at 6 mph on a 79-degree day. Both teams are 5-5 O/U over the last 10. The Over has hit in Suarez’s last 4 starts. The Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams and 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Atlanta. The OVER 7.5 (-112) sneaks by.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) take on the Atlanta Braves (62-41) Tuesday in the 1st game of a 2-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 5-5

The Phils have won 5 games in a row, and 6 of their last 7, but remain 10 games out in the NL East. On the plus side, OF Bryce Harper had the pins removed from his broken thumb and has begun to ramp up baseball activities. He could be back in a couple of weeks.

The Braves are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks but lost 2 of 3 in Philadelphia before that. The Braves are 3 1/2 games behind the New York Mets in the NL East and just acquired RHP Jake Odorizzi from the Houston Astros to help for the stretch run.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Nick Nelson vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Nelson (3-1, 3.94 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 28th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 48 IP.

  • Last pitched July 26 and threw 23 pitches. So this may be a 1-2-inning opening effort.
  • Has a 5.12 ERA,1.50 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 on the road vs. 3.14 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 at home.

Strider (5-3, 2.91 ERA) makes his 12th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 13.4 K/9 in 80 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 1 ER on 3 H and 1 BB with 6 K over 6 IP to beat the Phillies July 26 in his last start.
  • Is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 14.3 K/9 across 39 IP at home.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Braves -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Phillies 3

Money line

Strider was a beast in July with 3 straight games of 8+ K’s. However, he has tapered off a bit in his last 2 starts. He struck out 6 Phillies in his last start, and I will take STRIDER UNDER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS (-130).  I like the Braves to win, but we’re not touching the -240 ML. LEAN BRAVES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread

Four of the Braves’ 5 victories against the Phillies have been by more than 1 run, and 9 of the 10 games this season between these teams have been decided by more than a run. So I’ll LEAN BRAVES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Over is 7-2-1 between these teams this year and there have been 9 runs or more scored in 7 of the 10 meetings. It’s 90 degrees in Atlanta with a 7.6-mph breeze to left-center field. With the Phillies going with a bullpen day, let’s LEAN OVER 8.5 (-107).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (21-23) host the Philadelphia Phillies (20-24) Thursday in the finale of their 4-game series at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves took a 2-1 series lead by beating the Phillies 8-4 Wednesday following a 6-5 win Tuesday and a 7-3 loss Monday. Atlanta is now 5-5 straight up (SU) over its last 10 games and Philly is 3-7 SU in its last 10.

Season series: The Braves lead 2-1.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Nola is 1-4 with a 3.96 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 52 1/3 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 7-4 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 9 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Braves: 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 in 30 1/3 IP over 5 starts.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.93 FIP with a .243/.322/.469 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with 26.0 K% and 89.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 254 plate appearances (PA).

Wright is 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 47 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 4-3, Saturday at the Miami Marlins with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 10.95 FIP with a .278/.513/.708 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 12.5 K% and 89.7 mph EV in 24 PA.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+160) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 3

Money line

BET BRAVES (-115) because I give them the edge in both starting and relief pitching over the Phillies and both lineups have mediocre production thus far.

FanGraphs has Wright as the 9th-best starter in their power rankings while Nola is 23rd, which is still very impressive.

However, 4 of Wright’s 5 pitches have a minus-run value (RV), per Statcast, while just 2 of Nola’s 5 pitches have a minus-RV and Nola struggles in Atlanta.

Nola is 2-6 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate (all worse than his career marks) in 10 career starts at Truist Park.

Atlanta’s bullpen is also 1st in FIP (2.87), 3rd in hard-hit rate (35.9%) and 6th in K/BB rate (3.03), according to FanGraphs.Whereas Philly’s bullpen has a 3.87 FIP (ranked 17th), a 42.0% hard-hit rate (27th) and a 2.02 K/BB rate (29th).

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for Tipico Sportsbook. More than 70% of the bets placed are on Philly’s ML but three-fourths of the cash is on Atlanta’s ML. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money since sharps bet a lot more money than your average Joe.

The BRAVES (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the BRAVES -1.5 (+180) ALTERNATE RL, if at all, because this is such a chunky payout and Atlanta is 3-1 SU vs. Nola in their last 4 meetings and all 3 of those wins were by at least 4 runs.

Over/Under

PASS since we are getting to the party way late on the total. Phillies-Braves opened with an 8.5-run total (according to Pregame.com) but has been steamed down by sharp action to the current number.

However, Philly is 3-0-1 O/U in Nola’s last 4 starts, Atlanta is 15-5-2 O/U as a home favorite and the Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Phillies-Braves meetings.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (20-23) face the Atlanta Braves (20-23) Wednesday for the 3rd game of their 4-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly won the series opener 7-3 Monday and Atlanta responded with a 6-5 Tuesday to even the series.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Suarez is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 39 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 4-1, at home vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday with 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.77 FIP with a .248/.344/.517 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 23.3 K% and 93.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 30 plate appearances (PA).

Morton is 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across 40 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 5-3, Friday at the Miami Marlins with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: 3-2 with a 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 through 24 2/3 IP over 5 starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.51 FIP with a .267/.318/.423 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 20.1 K% and 87.1 mph EV in 154 PA.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 8, Phillies 4

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-175) instead of betting 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number. Atlanta’s ML opened at -135 but sharp action has steamed it up to the current number, per Pregame.com.

There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market since more money is on the Braves but more bets have been placed on the Phillies. It’s typically wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since sharps wager a lot more money than your average Joe.

Atlanta also has edges in starting and relief pitching and hit better vs. left-handed pitching than Philly does against righties.

Morton’s pitching peripherals are impressive vs. active Phillies hitters and Morton has a 2.19 ERA in his last 5 starts against Philly. Plus Atlanta’s bullpen is 8th in xFIP (3.61) and Philly’s bullpen is 26th (4.24).

The Braves are 8-6 overall vs. left-handed starters and the Phillies are 12-17 against right-handed pitching. Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher in wRC+ (105), wOBA (.322) and hard-hit rate (34.8%) against lefties than the Philly lineup’s 100 wRC+, .313 wOBA and 28.6% hard-hit rate vs. righties.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy lean to Braves -1.5 (+120) because they have a 3-edge over the Phillies in starting and relief pitching and hitting. However, there’s some value in the Over, Atlanta is 6-15 RL as a home favorite and Philly is 10-3 RL as a road underdog.

Over/Under

SPRINKLE on the OVER 8.5 (-130) because Atlanta’s ML is my favorite wager in this game.

However, Atlanta is 14-5-2 O/U as a home favorite and 8-0 O/U in Morton’s last 8 starts as a favorite and Philly is 9-4 O/U as a road underdog.

Truist Park also has the 3rd-highest park factor in the MLB, making it very hitter-friendly, the Over has cashed in 11 of the last 15 Phillies-Braves meetings in Atlanta and the total has been steamed up by sharp action.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (19-22) host the Philadelphia Phillies (19-22) Monday for the beginning of a 4-game NL East series at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Both teams are 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.

Philly snapped a 4-game losing skid and prevented a sweep in a 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 4-3 extra-inning victory Sunday.

Atlanta dropped the series finale at the Miami Marlins 4-3 Sunday after winning the first 2 games of the set.

The Braves beat the Phillies 10-9 in last year’s season series and Atlanta outscored Philly by 19 runs in those meetings.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Tucker Davidson

Wheeler is 2-3 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 3-0, at home vs. the San Diego Padres Wednesday with 7-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Braves: 2-2 with a 1.60 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.89 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 across 5 starts.

Davidson is 1-0 with a 5.87 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 8 H, 5 BB and 5 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last start: Win, 3-0, Tuesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 5-scoreless IP, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Phillies: No-decision in Atlanta’s 2-1 loss June 9 with 6-scoreless IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K.

Phillies at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Braves +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+122) | Braves +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 7, Braves 4

Money line

BET the PHILLIES (-135) since they have a 2-phase edge over the Braves in hitting and the starting pitching matchup and Philly’s ML has been steamed up from a -110 opener by sharp line movement (according to Pregame.com).

Wheeler has found his groove after a slow start to the season and dominated the Braves last year. Since losing his first 3 outings, Wheeler has thrown a quality start in 3 of his last 4 starts. Wheeler has a 3.07 FIP with a 28.1 K% in 192 plate appearances vs. current Phillies batters, per Statcast.

The Phillies are also 7-5 vs. lefty starters with a 115 wRC+ (ranked 8th) and .335 wOBA (ranked 4th) against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs.

While the Braves are 11-16 vs. righty starts with a 91 wRC+ (ranked 21st) and a .300 wOBA (ranked 21st) against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Atlanta’s lineup has been ice-cold recently, ranking 24th in wRC+ (90), 20th in wOBA (.298) and 24th in WAR over the last two weeks.

BET the PHILLIES (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Phillies are 1-4 RL as road favorites and the Braves have won their only game as a home underdog. Also, 3 of Philly’s last 4 wins over Atlanta have all been by a single run.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120) because the total has been steamed up even though Atlanta’s lineup has struggled lately and Wheeler has been dominant vs. the Braves and is a legit ace. The Phillies are 8-4 O/U as road underdogs and the Braves are 13-5-2 O/U as home favorites and 8-4-1 O/U vs. NL East foes.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-77) and Atlanta Braves (85-72) meet for a 7:20 p.m. ET Thursday night game at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Kyle Gibson is the scheduled starting pitcher for the Phillies. Across 30 games (29 starts) this season, he is 10-8 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across 177 2/3 IP with the Phillies and Texas Rangers.

  • Allowed 4 ER over 6 IP in his last start and owns a 7.16 ERA over his last five starts.
  • Owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home but has been saddled with a 4.29 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road. Control with a 3.7 BB/9 has been a particular issue in away games.
  • Faces a Braves club which is swung around to its best platoon splits against right-handers with a .761 OPS.

RHP Ian Anderson is the scheduled starter for the Braves. He is 8-5 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 through 122 1/3 IP over 23 starts.

  • Owns a 2.04 ERA over his last three starts at home.
  • Coming off a seven-inning start at the Arizona Diamondbacks that saw him allow just 1 ER on three base runners.

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Braves 6, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies scored just 3 combined runs in dropping the first two games of this series. Philadelphia has lost three in a row overall. A division-leading offense that cranked out an .831 OPS from Sept. 15-25 has posted a .390 OPS over the three straight losses.

Atlanta has won five games in a row and nine of its last 10. The Braves have registered 6.0 runs per game on an .802 OPS over that stretch.

For the season, the Phils-Braves series has been an even 9-9 exchange but Atlanta has outscored Philly 84-67. One-run games make for some gray area in looking at both clubs: the Phillies are 30-24 in such games, while the Braves are just 25-30.

With a lean toward Atlanta in a high-scoring game, PASS on the money line and shoot for the Braves getting by on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves are 27-14 in games decided by 5 or more runs.

BACK ATLANTA -1.5 (+130).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both starting pitchers have favorable BABIP figures, and they have expected-ERA measures significantly higher than their surface ERAs. Both bullpens have had struggles in the season’s final month.

On a warm night with a decent bit of humidity and with two good offenses that have produced at a high level in big chunks of September games, a higher-than-expected score is the strongest play in this one.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-125).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-76), after a series-opening loss, hope to even things up and pull closer to the division lead against the Atlanta Braves (84-72). First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies RHP Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.64 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 174 2/3 IP.

  • Has won his last two starts, although he allowed 6 runs in 6 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates his last time out.
  • Is 1-1 with a 4.44 ERA over 24 1/3 innings across four starts against the Braves this season.

Braves LHP Max Fried (13-7, 3.12 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 158 2/3 IP.

  • Has not allowed a run in his last 16 innings and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start since July 23.
  • Has won six straight decisions; the Braves have won his last four starts and nine of his last 10.

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are 9-8 against the Braves this season. They have lost two games in a row but have won nine of their last 13 games.

The Braves, though, are hotter. They have won four games in a row and eight of their last nine, and now lead the Phillies by 3.5 games in the division with five games remaining in the regular season.

Fried is pitching extremely well right now and, while the Braves have lost his two starts this season against Philly, he will shut down their bats tonight.

Take the BRAVES (-145).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Phillies are 74-82 ATS overall and 38-38 ATS on the road.

The Braves are 75-81 ATS but have the league’s worst home ATS record at 25-50 ATS. Atlanta is 9-8 ATS against Philadelphia this season and has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games.

It will be a close game with the division on the line. Take the PHILLIES +1.5 (-175).

Over/Under (O/U)

Eight of the 17 games between the two teams have had totals of 9 or more runs.

The Phillies’ last three games had fewer than 9 runs and so have nine of their last 11 games.

Four of the  Braves’ last 10 games had 9 or more runs and only one of Fried’s last five starts has finished with 9 or more runs.

Take UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-75) visit Truist Park Tuesday to start a pivotal three-game series with the NL East rival Atlanta Braves (83-72) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta has won seven of its past eight games, which includes a three-game sweep this past weekend at the San Diego Padres. Philly had its five-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 6-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both teams are 7-3 over their last 10 games. The Phillies are one loss or one St. Louis Cardinals win from being eliminated from the Wild Card race. They sit 2 1/2 games behind the Braves in the NL East.

Season series: Phillies lead 9-7.

RHP Zack Wheeler is Philly’s projected starter. Wheeler is 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA (206 1/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 31 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 victory vs. the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 9 K.
  • Wheeler is 2-1 in four starts against Atlanta this season with a 1.35 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 5.7 K/BB.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.15 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .328 wOBA, .379 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 23.6 K% and 88.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 199 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Charlie Morton makes his 32nd start for the Braves. Morton is 13-6 with a 3.53 ERA (176 IP, 69 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K in Atlanta’s 6-4 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday.
  • Morton is 2-2 against Philly this year with a 3.06 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 18 H, 9 BB and 21 K in four starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.50 FIP with a .284 BA, .320 wOBA, .365 xSLG, 20.9 K% and 85.4 mph EV in 182 PA.

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the BRAVES (-130) for 1 unit because their lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching and the Phillies’ relief pitching has been awful this month.

For instance, Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher than Philly’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ and wOBA and has the seventh-best hard-hit rate in the majors compared to the Phillies’ 25th-best hard-hit rate against righties.

Furthermore, the Philly bullpen’s ERA is more than 2 runs higher than Atlanta’s in September, and the Phillies relief pitching ranks in the bottom-8 of the league in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because betting on Atlanta to cover at home has been very costly this season—the Braves are 18-46 ATS as home favorites—while Philly has been great for backers in away games—the Phillies are 30-14 ATS as a road underdog. Also, eight of the 16 Phillies-Braves meetings this season have been decided by a single run.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-107) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I much prefer Atlanta straight-up than the total in this contest.

However, this is a “pros vs. joes” game in the betting market, according to Pregame.com. More than 70% of the cash is wagered on the Under but nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over. But, the sportsbooks are reacting to the presumed sharp money as the total has been brought down from the 8-run opener to the current price.

That said, both lineups are stacked with mashers including the reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman and one of the favorites to win the 2021 NL MVP Bryce Harper. Plus Philly’s bullpen could certainly get raked, and Atlanta is 15-14 O/U when Morton gets the start.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (16-17) play the Philadelphia Phillies (18-16) Sunday for the rubber match of their three-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta battled back from a 3-run deficit twice in its 8-7 extra-innings victory Saturday. The Braves were down 3-0 after the second inning but scored two in the bottom of the 9th to send it into extras.

Atlanta then rallied from three runs back entering the bottom of the 12th to win with a walk-off RBI single by RF Ehire Adrianza.

Season series: Phillies lead 5-3.

RHP Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies. He is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 7 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 10 K Tuesday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Career vs. Braves: 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA (130 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 in 21 starts.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster: 197 at-bats with a .254/.323/.447 slash line and 11 HR.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is the projected starter for the Braves. He is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win in 7 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 4 K at the Washington Nationals Tuesday. Ynoa helped himself out and provided his own run support by hitting a grand slam.
  • Career vs. Phillies: 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.09 WHIP and 4.9 K/9 over 1 start and 3 relief appearances.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 18 at-bats with a .222/.333/.444 slash line.

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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME the PHILLIES (-110) for 1 unit because Philly has its ace on the mound against an Atlanta lineup that’ll be easier to navigate if OF Ronald Acuna Jr. misses tonight’s game due to a finger injury.

There’s a bit of noise in Ynoa’s basic pitching stats because Statcast grades Ynoa in the 22nd percentile of exit velocity and in the seventh percentile of hard-hit rate (50.6%).

A big reason for Ynoa’s sub-3.00 ERA is his fortunate .225 BABIP and 87.5% left-on-base rates.

Both bullpens are middle to bottom-10 units and while Atlanta has been a little more productive in the batter’s box this year, Nola has pitched well vs. Braves hitters.

Furthermore, there’s less noise in Nola’s numbers as Statcast grades Nola in the 74th percentile of hard-hit rate, 78th percentile of expected wOBA and 91st percentile in BB%.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Ynoa has good stuff and should give his team a chance to win, Nola just has the edge and more importantly, the Phillies are 6-18 on the run line as road favorites since the start of last season.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a quarter unit since it has slightly reduced vig because all the Under action in the market has steamed this total down from the 8-run opener.

Both starters are strong and winds are blowing from left to right, which doesn’t aid the hitters, and we are getting the worst of the number.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (15-17) host the Philadelphia Phillies (18-15) Saturday at 7:20 p.m. ET in Truist Park for Game 2 of their three-game set. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves with MLB picks and predictions.

Philadelphia drilled Atlanta 12-2 last night after chasing Braves starter Charlie Morton when the Phillies lineup went through the entire lineup, scoring six runs in just two outs in the 1st inning.

Season series: Phillies 5-2.

RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starter for the Phillies. Velasquez is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 over 3 starts and 3 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-3, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K Monday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Career vs. the Braves: 1-6 with a 4.83 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.59 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 over 12 starts and 2 relief appearances.
    • Vs. Braves on the current roster: 148 at-bats with a .304/.373/.486 slash line, 43/15 K/BB rate, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.

RHP Ian Anderson gets the nod for the Braves. Anderson is 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA (33 IP, 12 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 6 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-2, in 4 IP with 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K at the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday.
  • Career vs. the Phillies: 0-0 with a 4.35 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.16 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in 2 starts.
    • Vs. Phillies on the current roster: 41 at-bats with a .220/.273/.439 slash line, 16/3 K/BB rate, 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 7, Phillies 5

Money line (ML)

PASS even though Atlanta’s the right side, and where I’m putting my money in the following section because based on recent performance the Braves (-175) for the game and -165 for the First 5 Innings is too pricey.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The story of Philadelphia’s 2020 season was the terribleness of its bullpen, but it has slightly improved. Philadelphia’s bullpen ERA and FIP are bottom-10 and Atlanta’s are top-10, but those stats can be misleading.

For instance, the Phillies’ relievers are top-10 in xFIP and SIERA, which are pitching-only ERA estimators, while the Braves’ relievers are bottom-10 in those metrics.

I say all this to lead into my point that I trust Atlanta could get an early lead given this starting pitching matchup, but I’m not very confident the Braves hold onto a lead.

Also, Atlanta’s lineup is top-6 in wOBA, wRC+, BB/K and ISO vs. right-handed pitching whereas Philadelphia’s lineup is in the bottom-third of the Majors in each of those categories.

BET the BRAVES -0.5 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (+105) alternate total for a quarter unit only since these teams have a combined 2-7 O/U record when these starters are on the mound, and I do not want to lay -120 with the regular total. However, the Over has cashed in four consecutive Phillies-Braves meetings, all in Atlanta.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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