[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves continue their NL Division Series with Game 2 on Monday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Phillies lead 1-0
Philadelphia won the NLDS opener 3-0 on Saturday. The Phillies advanced to the NLDS with a 2-0 sweep in an NL Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins. The Phillies are 12-4 since Sept. 18, including 2 wins in a 3-game set vs. the Braves in Atlanta from Sept. 18-20.
Bolstered by baseball’s top offense (5.85 runs per game), the NL East-champion Braves registered the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season. However, Atlanta was held to just 5 singles in Saturday’s setback.
Phillies at Braves projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Max Fried
Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Miami Marlins Tuesday (NLWS Game 1)
- 2023 Road stats: 8-4, 3.16 ERA in 102 2/3 IP across 17 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Braves (regular season): 3-1, 3.09 ERA in 32 IP (2022-23)
- Career in postseason: 2-3, 2.55 ERA in 42 1/3 IP over 7 starts (2022-23)
Fried went 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA across 14 regular-season starts. He registered a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 77 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 10-3 win at Washington Nationals Sept. 21
- Finished the regular season on the Injured List due to a blister on his left index finger
- 2023 home stats: 2-1, 3.86 ERA in 30 1/3 IP across 5 starts
- Career vs. Phillies: 4-4, 3.62 ERA in 79 2/3 IP across 13 starts and 6 relief appearances
- Career in postseason: 2-4, 4.43 ERA in 61 IP across 10 starts and 8 relief appearances (2018-22)
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Phillies at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Sunday at 8:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Braves 4
Moneyline
Wheeler logged a sub-3.00 ERA each year from 2020-22. His ERA was higher this season but perhaps deceivingly so due to a .337 batting average on balls in play when opposing runners were in scoring position. The Phillies righty is a seasoned veteran with a strong October history, and he’s coming off a playoff start last week. Including last week’s Wild Card start against Miami, Wheeler owns a 2.28 ERA over his last 23 2/3 IP.
Fried has had a long layoff, so the October mound jitters may not be an apples-to-apples comparison.
The Phils are on a roll and feeling confident.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the best price on the visitors for this one: BACK PHILADELPHIA (+134).
Run line/Against the spread
Philadelphia tends to play in a ton of 1-run games, but we should want a lower price to investigate a Run Line play here.
PASS.
Over/Under
No lean either way: PASS.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]