Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (74-52) and Atlanta Braves (67-59) meet for the finale of a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 5-3

Philadelphia escaped with a 3-2 win over the Braves Wednesday while covering as a -113 road favorite. The Phillies scored 3 unanswered runs in the 6th and 8th innings to rally from a 2-0 deficit. PH Brandon Marsh hit the tie-breaking sacrifice fly in the 8th to score Philly’s final run.

The win ended a streak of back-to-back losses for Philadelphia while the loss ended a 3-game winning streak for the Braves. The loss also broke the Braves’ 3-game win streak over the Phillies.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Sanchez (9-8, 3.46 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 140 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 4 K in a 5-1 win over the Washington Nationals Saturday
  • Career vs. Atlanta: 0-2, 4.73 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 17 H, 4 BB, 13 K in 3 appearances (2 starts)

Schwellenbach (4-6, 4.04 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 75 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 3-2 loss at the Los Angeles Angels Friday
  • Career vs. Philadelphia: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 1 start

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:07 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Braves +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

LEAN PHILLIES (-110).

The Phillies enter as the slightly hotter team, being 5-2 in its last 7 overall while the Braves are only 3-3 in their last 6 overall. Atlanta has also dropped 6 of its last 7 home games.

This is a lean because Philadelphia is only 1-3 in its last 4 road games and because the Braves are 3-1 in their last 4 matchups vs. Philly.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Braves to cover here as +1.5 (-190) underdogs, but this line is set far too favorably to risk betting on. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (+100).

The Under has hit in each of Atlanta’s last 3 games and is 7-3 in its last 10 overall. For Philadelphia, the Under has hit in back-to-back games and is 4-1 in its last 5 overall. The Under has also hit in each of the last 4 Philadelphia-Atlanta matchups overall.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (73-52) visit the Atlanta Braves (67-58) Wednesday. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 5-2

The Phillies have lost back-to-back games after falling 3-1 at the Braves Tuesday as -150 favorites. C J.T. Realmuto drove in the team’s only run, while RHP Zack Wheeler allowed 2 ER in 6 innings and picked up the loss.

The Braves have won 3 games in a row after Tuesday’s victory as +138 home underdogs. DH Marcell Ozuna hit a solo shot for Atlanta, which has won 6 of its last 8 games.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Max Fried

Nola (11-6, 3.45 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 154 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win against Washington Nationals Friday
  • Career vs. Braves (regular season): 16-11, 3.61 ERA (217 IP, 87 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 35 starts, including 1-1 with 7.84 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 9 ER) in 2 starts this year

Fried (7-7, 3.62 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 121 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-0 loss at San Francisco Giants Thursday
  • Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 4-5, 4.17 ERA (86 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 21 appearances (15 starts), including 0-1 with 10.80 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 8 ER) in 2 starts this season

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Braves +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

BET BRAVES (-110).

Atlanta has won 3 games in a row and is 5-2 in the season series against Philadelphia. It has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 7 of its last 8 games while scoring 3 or more in 5 of its last 7. Philadelphia has dropped back-to-back games while scoring 4 runs or fewer in 3 of its last 4.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is no value on the Braves’ run line.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-115).

The Phillies have scored 4 runs or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games and allowed 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. They have hit the Under in 3 of their last 4 contests.

The Braves have scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games and allowed 3 or fewer in 7 of their last 8, including 4 straight.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (73-51) and Atlanta Braves (66-58) meet Tuesday as they continue an NL East series at Truist Park. The opening mound delivery is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 4-2

Philadelphia had a 4-game win streak snapped with a 6-4 loss to the Washington Nationals Sunday. The Phillies have been streaky in the 2nd half: they already have 4 streaks of 3-or-more wins or losses.

Atlanta is back at home after a 6-4 road trip that took the club to Denver, San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Braves are looking to reverse a trend on struggles at home. They are just 6-13 at Truist since June 30.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Wheeler (12-5, 2.72 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 148 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 13-3 win vs. Washington Nationals Thursday
  • Career vs. Braves: 12-7, 3.07 ERA (176 IP, 60 ER), 157 H, 54 BB, 178 K in 28 starts

Lopez (7-4, 2.06 ERA) is tabbed for his 20th start. He owns a 1.19 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 104 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 9-2 win at New York Mets July 28
  • Career vs. Phillies: 2-0, 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), 10 H, 8 BB, 12 K in 2 starts
  • Coming off the IL (forearm) for this start; tossed 71 pitches in 1 rehab outing

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:51 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Braves +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Braves +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

The Braves are just 2-6 over their last 8 series lid-lifters. Their home struggles include 5 straight losses at Truist Park.

Analytics peg both starting pitchers as being too far out over their skis with their season ERAs, but perhaps Lopez more so. Still, per ESPN Wheeler has held current Atlanta batters to an aggregate .634 OPS in past meetings. Also, the Philadelphia right-hander is making this start on 4 days’ rest; that’s been a very productive interval for him (.628 OPS allowed this season, .618 OPS allowed career).

Consider a partial-unit play on PHILADELPHIA (-140).

Run line/Against the spread

Both teams are slightly under the average total of 1-run games for the season. The Phils are a lean but only an actionable one with a +130 return. PASS.

Over/Under

The Over is 6-3 across the last 9 series meetings and 8-4 in the last 12.

The expected-vs.-actual pitcher numbers and Atlanta batting numbers tilt this game into a higher scoring one than what sets up with the pitching match-up.

There is solid value on the OVER 8.5 (+100).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Atlanta Braves (47-38) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (57-30) to Truist Park Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 2-1

The Phillies lost to the Chicago Cubs 10-2 Thursday, closing as -119 road favorites. They won 2 of 3 in that series and are 5-4 straight up over their last 9 games. The Phillies are 24-16 in road games. Philadelphia, which is 47-40 against the spread (ATS) on the season, is 2-2 ATS in its last 4 games.

The Braves are also coming off a loss, dropping the finale of a 3-game series 4-2 against the San Francisco Giants Thursday. Atlanta has lost 3 of its last 4 games and 5 of its last 8. It is still among the best home teams in the majors at 27-16. The Braves are 39-46 ATS this season.

The Phillies beat the Braves 3-1 in last year’s NLDS.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Max Fried

Nola (9-4, 3.43 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 107 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 3-2 home setback to Miami Marlins Saturday
  • 2024 away splits: 5-1, 3.18 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 4 HR, 7.5 K/9 in 7 starts
  • 2024 vs. Braves: 0-1, 12.46 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 12-4 home loss March 30
  • Career vs. Braves (regular season): 15-11, 3.58 ERA (211 IP, 84 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 34 starts

Fried (7-3, 2.91 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 96 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 2-1 home win in 10 innings over Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
  • 2024 home splits: 2-1, 2.92 ERA (37 IP, 12 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 1 HR, 7.1 K/9 in 6 starts
  • 2024 vs. Phillies: 0-0, 40.50 ERA (2/3 IP, 3 ER), 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 1 start, a 12-4 road win March 30
  • Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 4-4, 3.92 ERA (80 1/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 14 starts and 6 relief appearances

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:42 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Phillies +1.5 (-188) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 2

Moneyline

BET BRAVES (-142).

The Braves have been virtually unbeatable at home with Fried on the mound. They are 5-1 in his home starts. Atlanta is 27-16 as a home favorite this season. Despite a recent slump, it has won 3 straight Fried starts and allowed just 1 run in each of those games.

The Phillies are 4-3 over their last 7, but 2 of those losses came at home against the Miami Marlins (the worst team in the NL East), one of which came with Nola starting. Both teams have strong options on the mound, but the Braves are the better play here.

Back BRAVES (-142).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Phillies are too expensive as run-line underdogs here, while the Braves are too risky as run-line favorites, especially with this set to be a low-scoring game.

Avoid the run line here.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).

The pitching will be too good, and the trends support the Under as well. The Braves have gone Under in Fried’s last 4 starts and are 0-7-1 O/U in their last 8 games. They are 30-51-4 O/U on the season.

The Phillies are 1-2 O/U in Nola’s last 3 starts and 39-43-5 O/U on the season. They have scored 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 7 as well. Against an ace like Fried, expect them to struggle.

Back UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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NLDS Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves NLDS Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves continue their NL Division Series with Game 2 on Monday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0

Philadelphia won the NLDS opener 3-0 on Saturday. The Phillies advanced to the NLDS with a 2-0 sweep in an NL Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins. The Phillies are 12-4 since Sept. 18, including 2 wins in a 3-game set vs. the Braves in Atlanta from Sept. 18-20.

Bolstered by baseball’s top offense (5.85 runs per game), the NL East-champion Braves registered the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season. However, Atlanta was held to just 5 singles in Saturday’s setback.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Max Fried

Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Miami Marlins Tuesday (NLWS Game 1)
  • 2023 Road stats: 8-4, 3.16 ERA in 102 2/3 IP across 17 starts
  • Last 5 starts vs. Braves (regular season): 3-1, 3.09 ERA in 32 IP (2022-23)
  • Career in postseason: 2-3, 2.55 ERA in 42 1/3 IP over 7 starts (2022-23)

Fried went 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA across 14 regular-season starts. He registered a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 77 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K in 10-3 win at Washington Nationals Sept. 21
  • Finished the regular season on the Injured List due to a blister on his left index finger
  • 2023 home stats: 2-1, 3.86 ERA in 30 1/3 IP across 5 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 4-4, 3.62 ERA in 79 2/3 IP across 13 starts and 6 relief appearances
  • Career in postseason: 2-4, 4.43 ERA in 61 IP across 10 starts and 8 relief appearances (2018-22)

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Sunday at 8:06 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 4

Moneyline

Wheeler logged a sub-3.00 ERA each year from 2020-22. His ERA was higher this season but perhaps deceivingly so due to a .337 batting average on balls in play when opposing runners were in scoring position. The Phillies righty is a seasoned veteran with a strong October history, and he’s coming off a playoff start last week. Including last week’s Wild Card start against Miami, Wheeler owns a 2.28 ERA over his last 23 2/3 IP.

Fried has had a long layoff, so the October mound jitters may not be an apples-to-apples comparison.

The Phils are on a roll and feeling confident.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the best price on the visitors for this one: BACK PHILADELPHIA (+134).

Run line/Against the spread

Philadelphia tends to play in a ton of 1-run games, but we should want a lower price to investigate a Run Line play here.

PASS.

Over/Under

No lean either way: PASS.

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NLDS Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves open their NL Division Series with Game 1 Saturday. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 6:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s  lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Braves won 8-5

Philadelphia advanced to the NLDS with a 2-0 sweep in an NL Wild Card Series against the Miami Marlins. Including postseason and since Sept. 18, the Phillies are 11-4. That stretch opened with Philadelphia taking 2 of 3 from the Braves in Atlanta Sept. 18-20.

The NL East-champion Braves registered the best record in Major League Baseball during the regular season. The wins were more tilted to the club’s offensive prowess: Atlanta led MLB in scoring (5.85 runs per game). The Braves’ 4.42 RPG allowed ranked 14th. Since Sept. 11, Atlanta pitching has been tagged with a 6.08 ERA.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in the regular season. He logged a 1.42 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 125 innings across 22 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 4 K in 7-6 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 27
  • 2023 road stats: 3-3, 2.75 ERA in 59 IP
  • Career vs. Braves (regular season): 2-2, 3.00 ERA in 48 IP
  • Owns a 1.23 ERA across 14 2/3 postseason innings

Strider went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts. He authored a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 186 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-3 home victory vs. Washington Nationals last Saturday
  • 2023 home stats: 8-3, 4.35 ERA in 93 IP
  • Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 8-0, 1.90 ERA in 47 1/3 IP
  • Only postseason appearance: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 9-1 loss at Phillies Oct. 14, 2022

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-115) | Braves -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Nobody hits lefty pitching better than the Braves. Atlanta clubbed an .870 OPS against port-siders during the regular season.

Strider had a solid season line; he was deserving of even better. The young right-hander was partly dinged by a .316 batting average on balls in play. But drilling down, we find that Strider was really behind the 8-ball in clutch situations. In inning-leadoff situations, he yielded a .402 BABIP. In all high-leverage scenarios, he was tagged by a .368 BIP.

Atlanta was in this position last year and fell to these Phillies in 4 games. This season, the Braves outscored the Phils 74-58.

If you’re the type of bettor who can’t lay $21 to win $10, this may not be the play for you, but there is value here. Getting Atlanta priced under -215 is real leverage. BACK THE BRAVES (-210).

Run line/Against the spread

Some bettors may like the -1.5-run action more. That’s the side if you don’t want to stick your neck out on the moneyline. But there is risk here, too; just a different kind. Good pitching plus rested bullpens plus a Philadelphia club that has played 53 one-run games (regular season) makes for risk of a tight, low-scoring October affair. PASS.

Over/Under

No lean either way: PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (82-68) and Atlanta Braves (96-54) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Tuesday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 7-4

The Phillies won 7-1 as -109 favorites as the Under (9.5) cashed in the series opener Monday. DH Kyle Schwarber hit a 483-foot, 2-run HR in the 6th inning, and Philadelphia won for the 3rd time in its last 4 games. The Phillies have a 3½-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the top NL Wild Card spot.

The Braves tied their season high for consecutive losses after dropping their 4th straight game Monday. However, Atlanta has secured a bye in the postseason and home field in the NLDS after the Milwaukee Brewers dropped a 1-0 decision at the St. Louis Cardinals.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sánchez vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Sánchez (2-4, 3.40 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 87 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 4-1 home loss vs. Braves Wednesday
  • 2023 road stats: 0-0, 1.29 ERA (21 IP, 3 ER) in 4 starts
  • Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

Strider (17-5, 3.73 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 169 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in Wednesday’s victory at Phillies
  • 2023 home stats: 6-3, 4.33 ERA (81 IP, 39 ER) in 14 starts
  • 2023 vs. Phillies: 3-0, 1.89 ERA (19 IP, 4 ER) in 3 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 7-0, 1.56 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 7 ER) in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:51 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 2

Moneyline

It’s unlikely that the Braves (-225) will lose back-to-back home games vs. the Phillies, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when Atlanta should win by multiple runs.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are 26-17 on the run line this season in divisional matchups, according to TeamRankings.com. They’ve also won 14 of Strider’s last 19 starts by multiple runs.

The Phillies are an MLB-worst 33-48 on the run line this year after a win and have struggled vs. Strider in the regular season.

BET BRAVES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Strider has allowed 1 or fewer ER in 4 of his last 6 starts, and Sánchez has allowed 3 or fewer in 14 of his 16 outings this season. The Under is 41-32-8 (56.2%) this year when the Phillies are coming off a win and should hit again Tuesday with Strider on the mound for the Braves.

BET UNDER 9 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (81-68) and Atlanta Braves (96-53) open up a 3-game set at Truist Park Monday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 7-3

The Phillies took 2 of 3 on the road at the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend but have still dropped 6 of their last 10 games. Philadelphia had lost 3 of 4 games to the Atlanta Braves in the previous series. The Phillies are still 3 1/2 games up on the rest of the fray for the top NL Wild Card spot. They need to remain focused though because there are 5 teams within 6 1/2 games of them.

Atlanta was swept in a 3-game series at the Miami Marlins over the weekend, allowing 36 runs in the series. The Braves have already clinched the division and are 4 1/2 games up on the Los Angeles Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Wheeler (11-6, 3.70 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 175 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K Tuesday against the Braves
  • Last 5 regular season starts vs. Braves: 3-0, 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 41 K in 33 IP

Wright (0-2, 7.48 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.89 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 21 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K last Monday against Phillies
  • Last 5 regular season starts vs. Phillies: 2-3, 5.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 21 K in 28 IP

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Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Braves 5

Moneyline

Wheeler doesn’t have many back-to-back rough outings, and the Phils are facing a guy who is making just his 2nd start since May. The Phillies have more to play for, and the Braves have been absolutely shellacked the last 3 days.

I’m taking the PHILLIES (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

I like the Braves side here, but not the price.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Phillies are 6-4 O/U over the last 10, and the Braves are 8-2. The Over is 5-4-1 in the last 10 meetings between the teams, and the Over cashed in 3 of the 4 meetings last week. Wheeler could always hurl a gem to cash the Under, but all the momentum says we’re going Over.

Take the OVER 9.5 (-105).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (25-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-21) play the finale of a 4-game set at Truist Field Sunday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Phils squeaked out a 2-1 victory Saturday for a 2nd straight win after dropping the series opener Thursday. Philadelphia has been playing .500 ball all month, going 5-5, 10-10 and 15-15 over its last 10, 20 and 30 games, respectively. OF Bryce Harper has settled in after returning from Tommy John surgery, hitting .321 with 3 homers and 8 RBIs in 22 games.

The Braves are still sitting pretty atop the NL East with a 4.5-game lead over the Miami Marlins. 1B Matt Olson (14), OF Ronald Acuna (11), C Sean Murphy (11), DH Marcell Ozuna (11) and 2B Ozzie Albies (10) have all hit at least 10 home runs for Atlanta. The Braves have taken care of business in the division at 11-5 but are just 14-14 at home thus far.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Dylan Covey vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Covey (0-0, 3.00 ERA) makes his 1st start and 3rd appearance. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 9 innings for the Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.

  • Threw 5 IP in relief Tuesday, allowing 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 6 K against the Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Throws a sinker, cutter, slider and changeup; throws the cutter 34% of the time to a .231 OBA

Strider (4-2, 2.97 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and an MLB-leading 15.1 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 R (2 ER), 5 H, 3 BB, 11 K in an 8-1 loss vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
  • 3 career starts vs. Phillies: 3-0, 1.45 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 29 K in 18 2/3 IP

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (+105) | Braves -1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Strider is just blowing everyone away with 7 or more K’s in his last 7 starts and 10-plus K’s in 4 of those outings. He has been hittable, though, with a 4.23 ERA over his past 5 starts. He’s the same pitcher at home as he is on the road, and the Braves have a sizeable advantage on the mound Sunday. The Phils are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the Braves but just 6-13 in the last 19 in Atlanta.

No chance we’re taking the -250 ML here, but if you head to the First 5 Innings section, WILL BOTH TEAMS SCORE 1 OR MORE RUNS IN THE FIRST 5 INNINGS? YES (-165) is at a suitable price with the way Strider has been giving up runs.

Run line/Against the spread

The Braves are priced the way they should be with the steep advantage they have on the mound. However, they have just 2 wins by multiple runs in the last 10 games. If you’re feeling the Braves here, head to the Win/Total section. There’s a prop there for BRAVES AND OVER 6.5 TOTAL RUNS (-115) at a solid price if we can stay under 10 runs.

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Over/Under

It’s 72 degrees with a 9-mph breeze blowing out toward left-center. I think the 9 total is pretty spot on here. The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the totals in Strider’s 3 career starts vs. Philadelphia are 7, 14 and 9. So we’re already leaning toward the Over here, but I just don’t see the incentive to reach for 10 runs to avoid a push.

PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (24-27) and Atlanta Braves (31-20) clash in a Saturday afternoon affair at Truist Park at 4:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

Philadelphia lost Thursday’s series opener 8-5 but bounced back with a 6-4 win Friday. The Game 2 victory marked just the 3rd road win for the Phillies since April 30.

Braves pitching owns a 3.70 ERA for the season (5th MLB). But a spate of walks and home runs has led to the club posting a 4.75 mark over its last 10 games.

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Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Wheeler (3-4, 4.11 ERA) makes his 11th start of the season. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 57 IP.

  • Current Atlanta batters own an aggregate .671 OPS against him
  • Facing a Braves club that has logged a .947 OPS against southpaws and a .729 figure against right-handers
  • Has gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts

Morton (5-4, 3.61 ERA) is making his 10th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 52 1/3 IP.

  • Coming off a rough start where he allowed 6 ER over 5 IP (had logged a 2.32 ERA over previous 5 starts)
  • Philadelphia batters against Morton: .721 OPS aggregate

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-178) | Braves -1.5 (+146)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -122)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Braves are 11-4 in 1-run games and may be overrated a bit overall.

Looking at the starting pitching matchup, Wheeler has been hurt by a low 65.8% left-on-base rate, and Morton has been aided by a high 78.4% figure. Those are clutch plate appearances somewhat unfairly coloring the surface numbers of each hurler — to Wheeler’s detriment and Morton’s benefit.

Both starters also head into this contest on regular rest. That’s a boon for Wheeler and the Phillies; the right-hander has strong career and recent-season splits on such rest. With his solid history against Braves bats, and with Atlanta having a more average offense against right-handers, Philly is a lean.

Wheeler did go 108 pitches in his last start, however, and there is a slight pull toward an Under in this match-up. And the Run Line has more attractive pricing relative to the risk.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

While it’s juicier than we’d prefer, take the PHILLIES +1.5 (-178) for some of the reasons mentioned above.

There is also a prop bet we’d consider.

Wheeler has struck out at least 7 Braves in his last 5 starts against them. He has 7+ K’s in 2 of his last 3 starts, and they’re offering us plus-money for it. Atlanta isn’t striking out as frequently as it did last year, but Atlanta is still in the top half in terms of whiff ease at 8.71/game.

Take ZACK WHEELER OVER 6.5 K’S (+108).

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Over/Under

The books have the total handicapped well today, and the risk isn’t worth the reward. So let’s get creative.

Head to the Line/Total Parlays section on FanDuel, and let’s go with PHILLIES +2.5/OVER 6.5 (-125). That gives you a smaller total to hit, and the Phils get a couple of runs of insurance. These teams have combined for 10 runs or more in their last 4 meetings with Philadelphia taking 3 of 4.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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