No. 6 Notre Dame vs. Stanford: Staff predictions for regular season finale

Does Notre Dame allow a touchdown for the first time this November?

Notre Dame checks in sixth in the College Football Playoff rankings and has a path to the Playoff if they can get a little bit of help.

Of course, they have to take care of business first themselves as a trip to Stanford sits between the Irish and an 11-1 season.  Stanford has one of the biggest upsets of the year when they knocked off Oregon in early October but the Cardinal haven’t won since, dropping their last five and entering their 2021 finale at 3-8.

Will Stanford pose an actual threat to Notre Dame’s 11-1 season or will they just be the latest bug on the windshield for the Irish, who have outscored opponents 117-9 in November?

Here is what the Fighting Irish Wire staff sees happening:

Know your foe, Stanford: Which Cardinals could give Notre Dame problems

Who should the Irish key in on? Find out here

The Cardinal are entering this game on a six-game losing streak, not exactly ideal as they face off against as an Irish team that is hitting their stride. This should be a fairly easy contest for Notre Dame, but that doesn’t mean the Cardinal will just roll over. Here are five Stanford player who could give Notre Dame problems.

Notre Dame’s updated road map to College Football Playoff

What do you think should need to happen to get Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame checked in sixth this week in the College Football Playoff rankings with two teams ahead of them set to play this weekend and another pair set to play next weekend.  It seems like the Irish have a great shot at making the CFP for a third time in four seasons upon hearing that, right?

To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend!”

Although those are the facts today, seemingly everything you hear appears to be hell-bent on a one-loss Big 12 champion (Oklahoma or Oklahoma State) moving past Notre Dame.  The Irish will have to hope for whoever wins the Bedlam matchup this weekend to fall in next weekend’s Big 12 championship.

Here is the updated Notre Dame road map to the College Football Playoff after the week 12 CFP rankings were released with all percentages courtesy of the FiveThirtyEight college football tracker.

 

‘College Gameday’ picks for biggest games of week 12

What potential CFP team has the biggest risk of getting upset today?

The College Football season is winding down with only two weeks of the regular season remaining.  As the race for the College Football Playoff is on and bowl projections become somewhat more clear each week, we have a big Saturday of action ahead of rivalry week in the sport next week.

As always, ESPN’s College Gameday staff made their predictions for the biggest games of the week on Saturday morning.  What upsets do some of them see coming today and which favorites will roll?

The band Twenty One Pilots served as this week’s guest pickers and here are the picks the staff gave on Saturday morning:

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame’s conclusion to 2021

A slightly better than 1-in-3 chance Notre Dame wins out?

Notre Dame sits at 8-1, has a path, albeit a difficult one, to the College Football Playoff, and has three games they’ll be favored in remaining to close 2021.

How do the formulas see Notre Dame finishing this year?

We’ve looked at ESPN’s FPI throughout the year and looked at what kind of chances they give Notre Dame to win their remaining games.  Now with only three games left their outlook is bright for the Irish to finish 11-1.  Here is how they’re projecting the final three games of 2021 for Notre Dame:

Notre Dame rival blown out on Friday night

You hate to see it…

Since 1999 Notre Dame has closed every odd numbered regular season (aside from 2001 due to September 11 attacks) at Stanford.  The Irish will do that again in a few weeks but it doesn’t appear the host Cardinal will be putting their finest team in recent memory on the field.

Stanford handed Oregon their only loss to date back in early October, but they’ve been awful since.  On Friday night the Cardinal fell at home to Utah 52-7, a game they trailed 38-0 at halftime and were outgained 581-167 in.

Stanford was playing without quarterback Tanner McKee who was on crutches.  His availability is unknown going forward as Stanford head coach David Shaw said next may be a bit early for his return, but didn’t rule out a return in 2021 overall.

Notre Dame travels to Stanford on Thanksgiving weekend again this year and leads the all-time series with Stanford 20-13 after winning the last two meetings in the rivalry.  These Cardinal are a long way from the Stanford teams that won 7-of-9 games against Notre Dame from 2009-2017.

They did however somehow knock off Oregon this year.

Related:

Notre Dame football all-time vs. the Pac-12

Notre Dame earns fourth-straight win over USC: Five Takeaways

What is your biggest takeaway from Saturday night’s win over USC?

Notre Dame and USC rekindled their relationship Saturday night as the teams met in South Bend after having to skip the annual series last fall due to the pandemic.

Notre Dame drove the length of the field on their opening drive before missing a field goal, forced a three-and-out of USC, and then drove down the field for a score.

The Irish were in control despite letting things get a bit more interesting than they’d have liked in the fourth quarter.  Here are my five instant takeaways from the — win that moves Notre Dame to 6-1.

FPI projects Notre Dame-USC outcome

Do you think Saturday’s game come down to the final minutes?

As frustrating as Notre Dame has been through the first six games of 2021 I feel safe in stating a few things about them:

  • They’re a good but not great team
  • Their flaws being as obvious as they are frustrating to see because they’ve been evident almost weekly
  • Like the majority of the time since 2017, this team is going to win a lot simply because they rarely do something to beat themselves (Cincinnati game obviously withstanding)

With all of that in mind, and the fact that the rival USC Trojans are just 3-3 and again playing under an interim head coach as they travel to South Bend, it’s not a surprise to see Notre Dame as an overwhelming favorite in Saturday’s game according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

FPI Projection: Notre Dame 77.3% chance to win

I will note that I find the FPI rankings system to be largely absurd but do find value in their individual game projections the deeper into the season we get.

A win would give Notre Dame their fourth-straight over the Trojans which would be the longest winning streak for the Irish since taking 11-straight from 1983-1993.

Related:

Experts make Notre Dame-USC predictions

Notre Dame-USC: Fun facts from epic college football rivalry

Notre Dame’s statistical leaders through first six games

Notre Dame-USC Rivalry: Greatest ‘What Ifs?’

What if @ReggieBush doesn’t push @MattLeinartQB into the end zone in 2005? Does @brady_quinn lead ND to the title game? @mattzemek & @nickshepkowski share massive “what ifs” in Notre Dame-USC history…

Over the last week or so I’ve exchanged several emails, messages, and had multiple conversations with Matt Zemek of Trojans Wire about not just Notre Dame and USC for 2021, but the historic side of the rivalry as well.  From now until Saturday night’s kickoff I’ll share our thoughts on some questions we came up with for each other in regards to the rivalry.

The next question in this series is the all-time great “What If’s” in regards to outcomes of different games?  Would history tell a different story not just on a given afternoon but for years down the road?

Related: Notre Dame-USC: fun facts about epic rivalry

What is the greatest “What If” in the history of Notre Dame-USC?

Next: I answered from a Notre Dame perspective while Matt did so from the USC side of things…

Notre Dame-USC: fun facts about epic rivalry

For the first time in two fulls years we can say it: Beat SC.

Notre Dame and USC have made up the greatest intersectional rivalries in all of college football for nearly a century and get set to meet for the 92nd time this Saturday in South Bend.

Last year didn’t see the Irish and Trojans meet due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Pac-12 not playing out of conference games, the first time the schools didn’t meet since World War II.

Order is restored and things return to normal this Saturday as Notre Dame welcomes USC to South Bend as the rivalry gets renewed once again.

Ever wondered how these two programs came to be great rivals?  Here are 10 things to know about the history of Notre Dame and USC: