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Orange Bowl: Florida Gators vs Virginia Cavaliers odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Monday’s Orange Bowl college football betting odds and lines between the Florida Gators and Virginia Cavaliers with NCAA football betting odds, picks and best bets.

The Florida Gators (10-2) face the Virginia Cavaliers (9-4) Monday in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium for an 8 p.m. ET (on ESPN). We analyze the Florida-Virginia odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Get some action on the game at BetMGM by placing a sports bet!

Florida vs. Virginia: Three things you need to know

1. Florida has one of the top-ranked defenses in the country, ranking ninth in yards allowed per game this season (299.0 YPG).

2. The Gators have lost just two of their last 16 games, winning three straight to finish the season.

3. The Over has hit in six of the last seven games when Virginia has faced an SEC opponent.

Florida vs. Virginia: Odds, betting lines and picks

*Virginia Cavaliers QB Bryce Perkins (3). (Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports)*

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:50 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Florida 35, Virginia 14

Moneyline (ML)

The Gators (-625) open this contest as a monster moneyline favorite after losing just twice in the 2019 season. Their two losses came against No.1 LSU, and No. 5 ranked Georgia, but they were competitive in both games. Virginia (+420) is a big underdog in this contest, but there just isn’t enough value on either side. I’m taking the Florida moneyline here, but placing bigger bets against the spread.

Against the Spread (ATS)

FLORIDA (-14.5, -115) is more than a two-touchdown favorite over Virginia. The Gators have been solid this season as a favorite, covering in four consecutive games – they’re 8-4 ATS overall. On paper, these teams just don’t seem all that close. Expect Florida’s defense to stifle the Virginia offense and look for the Gators to make this an easy cover.

Over/Under (O/U)

The O/U is 54.5 (Over -115, Under -106), which feels just about right considering the two defenses. Florida allows 14.4 points per game, and it’s worth noting that the Under has hit in 15 of its last 20 games vs. the ACC. Expect Virginia’s offense to struggle in this game and for the UNDER 54.5 (-106) to hit.

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Wisconsin bowl memories: 2017 Orange Bowl

The December 2017 Orange Bowl between Wisconsin and Miami

In the New Year’s Six bowl structure, elite bowl games have been played in late December, not just early January. This has led to years in which there are “two” bowls of the same kind. For instance, there were two 2017 Cotton Bowls: Wisconsin won the January 2017 Cotton Bowl over Western Michigan, and Ohio State won the December 2017 Cotton Bowl over USC.

When one refers to the 2017 Orange Bowl, one is referring not to January, but to December. Just before 2017 gave way to 2018, the Wisconsin Badgers played the Miami Hurricanes, and they did so in Miami at Hard Rock Stadium. It was not Wisconsin versus an SEC team in a bowl game, but the theme was familiar: Wisconsin had to play its bowl game much closer to the opponent’s campus than its own. Wisconsin had to shoulder the handicap Big Ten teams normally play with in bowl games in Southern locales. (Miami is not culturally Southern the way SEC locales are, but geographically, this is as southernmost a bowl location as one can imagine.)

Wisconsin had a reason to adopt an “us against the world” mentality due to playing in Miami’s back yard, but beyond the foreign territory angle, the Badgers had another cause to rally around: the turnover chain. You remember that part of Miami’s 2017 season, right? It was all anyone could talk about when the Hurricanes were discussed. People in the college football world wondered if “The U” was actually back. Texas has never gotten “back” under Tom Herman. Michigan has never been “back” under Jim Harbaugh. When Miami won 11 games and popped Notre Dame late in that 2017 season, it was reasonable to wonder if Mark Richt had the Canes back to their formerly lofty place in college football, ending a long period in the sport’s wilderness.

One can legitimately say that if Miami wanted to make sure that it was “back,” Wisconsin prevented that from happening. The Badgers yanked The U’s chain and showed the Hurricanes who was boss.

Everyone in and around Wisconsin football knows that Alex Hornibrook lost the plot in the 2018 season, an autumn which slipped away from the Badgers for a whole host of reasons. Yet, before the 2018 train went off the tracks, Hornibrook was a man who met the moment in 2017. Hornibrook wasn’t brilliant. He didn’t dominate games. He didn’t dazzle or demolish. He did, however, make big third-down throws.

In the Orange Bowl, he continued to do that, and he separated himself from his opposite number, Miami quarterback Malik Rosier. Hornibrook threw four touchdown passes in that Orange Bowl, making all the big throws on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive which turned a 27-24 Wisconsin game into a 34-24 Badger lead. When Miami missed a chip-shot field goal a few minutes after Wisconsin gained its 10-point advantage, the ballgame was over, and the Badgers tucked away their 13th win in the same college football season.

Whereas Hornibrook made all the big throws in this game — powering Wisconsin to a 21-point second-quarter surge which helped UW overcome a 14-3 Miami start in the first quarter — Rosier threw three interceptions. One of those interceptions came when Miami trailed 24-21 in the third quarter and was driving inside the Wisconsin 30. Hornibrook finished what he started; Rosier did not. Wisconsin won the turnover battle against the team which loved to flaunt the turnover chain.

It was a very happy chain of events for the Badgers in Miami two years ago, capping one of the most special seasons in Wisconsin football history.

Who will Georgia football play in its bowl game?

The Georgia Bulldogs fell 37-10 to LSU in Atlanta Saturday and are likely headed back to New Orleans for another disappointing Sugar Bowl. Final. Georgia 10 // LSU 37 #GoDawgs – Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) December 8, 2019 Despite the …

The Georgia Bulldogs fell 37-10 to LSU in Atlanta Saturday and are likely headed back to New Orleans for another disappointing Sugar Bowl.

Final.

Georgia 10 // LSU 37#GoDawgs

— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) December 8, 2019

Despite the 27-point loss to the Tigers, the Bulldogs won the head-to-head matchup with rival Florida in Jacksonville this season and have an extra win on the schedule, so it’s hard to see Georgia falling behind the Gators.

However, if the Dawgs were to slip behind Mullen and company, they would likely head to Miami for the Orange Bowl against ACC runner-up Virginia.

Assuming it’s the former and not the latter, Georgia gets Baylor in the Sugar Bowl, who fell 30-23 in overtime to Oklahoma on Saturday.

Several players are expected to sit out the bowl game for the Dawgs, but time will tell of Georgia comes out motivated for its bowl this season or plays flat like it did against Texas just one year ago.

As for now, it’s waiting time in Athens, with the Bulldogs’ New Years Six fate in the hands of the committee.

Final 2019 College Football Bowl Projections

Finally, with all of the college football games (aside from Army-Navy) complete, we can look ahead to the bowl season. Teams will find out where they’re going bowling at some point on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t try to tell you where every team will be going. We’ve been patiently tracking rumors and conversations about who will be going where. After patiently dealing with all of the rules and regulations for each conference, here are my best guesses as to every bowl matchup.

Remember: Nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The Group of 5 conferences essentially have no selection order preference. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, matchup quality, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where each team could be headed.

79 teams are bowl-eligible this year, and there are 78 slots available in bowl games. Right now, I have Eastern Michigan being the unlucky team that will stay home, though it could definitely be Toledo or Kent State.

I will also update these for the next few hours Saturday night if any credible rumors come in.

College Football Playoff

Peach Bowl	Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM	LSU	vs	Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl	Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM	Ohio State	vs	Clemson

This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so LSU will get the Peach Bowl against Oklahoma.

The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Clemson will by far be the bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given prime time billing.

Next… NY6 and other Big Ten bowls

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Making sense of the Big Ten bowl lineup

We will find out what bowls Big Ten teams are going to on Sunday. Let’s look at the potential destinations so we can be prepared for them.

Nine Big Ten teams will find out their bowl destinations on Sunday. Where will they be headed? And who are the likely opponents? Let’s look up and down the lineup and see what we can find. There are a few things that we know, though a ton is still up in the air. What happens this weekend–especially in the College Football Playoff race–will have trickle effects on all of the Big Ten’s biggest bowls.

First, we have to explain the Big Ten’s bowl process. After the Citrus Bowl, every bowl sends its preferred team(s) to the Big Ten. The conference then decide which teams go where, though there are some requirements. For example, most bowls have some sort of deal for “five teams in six years,” while the Pinstripe Bowl says its “goal is to have eight different Big Ten schools participate in eight years, with a minimum of six different” teams playing. As this year is the end of the six-year cycle for most of the bowls in the lineup, this leaves some bowls–most notably the Outback Bowl–in an awkward situation.

The easiest way to make sense of the lineup is to go through, bowl by bowl, what teams will be the likely option. Let’s start at the very top, where the answers are very obvious.

College Football Playoff

Restrictions: None

Likely teams: Ohio State

Barring an incredible collapse on Saturday night, the Ohio State Buckeyes will be going to the College Football Playoff. Either the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl is possible for the Buckeyes, though the Fiesta Bowl seems more likely. There is also a very slight chance that Wisconsin could find its way into the tournament. If the Badgers do make it, that will have shakeups down the bowl lineup, as I will explain.

Rose Bowl Game

Restrictions: None

Likely teams: Wisconsin, Penn State

Potential Opponents: Utah, Oregon

Based on the selection committee’s rankings this week, it seems very likely that Wisconsin will be going to the Rose Bowl. If, however, the Badgers get bumped down below Penn State after losing to Ohio State again, we could see the Nittany Lions in the Rose Bowl.

Remember, though, the Rose Bowl gets to select its Big Ten team. It will very likely follow the selection committee’s rankings, but it is not bound by them. So if Wisconsin loses badly but doesn’t drop in the rankings, it could still be passed over by the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl could even select Minnesota after the Gophers had their best season in over 50 years, though that no longer seems likely now that Minnesota is the Big Ten’s sixth-highest ranked team.

The opponent in this game will be either Utah or Oregon. If Utah wins the Pac 12 Championship Game but does not make it to the Playoff, then Utah will be the opponent. If Utah reaches the CFP or Utah loses the Pac 12 Championship Game, then Oregon will be the opponent.

Next… Other NY6 Bowls and New Years’ Day Bowls

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What to look for in the CFP selection committee’s fifth rankings

The College Football Playoff selection committee will be releasing its second-to-last rankings Tuesday night. Here’s what to look for.

The College Football Playoff selection committee’s penultimate rankings will be released tonight (Tuesday). There isn’t too much intrigue in them, and we are a bit past the point of the season where the committee will send us real messages–not that messages earlier in the season have been particularly consistent.

Instead, there are a few important things to look at as we set the stage for next week’s CFP selections and for the other New Years’ Six bids.

Utah vs Big 12

The first thing to look at is where the committee places the Utes. Utah has been ahead of Oklahoma and Baylor the past few weeks. If that stays the same, then we have no new information. If, however, Oklahoma (and/or Baylor) jumps Utah this week, that would show us that the Utes are on the outside looking in when it comes to the No. 4 spot. Also, remember to listen to what Rob Mullens says about this discussion, as he will almost certainly tell us something about how the committee compared Utah to the Big 12 teams. How meaningful that explanation is is anyone’s guess, but it will be the best we have.

Where do Alabama and Wisconsin move to?

Conference pecking order in the Big Ten will matter for the Rose Bowl, and for the SEC could matter for the Orange Bowl (or Sugar Bowl, if Georgia and LSU both make the Playoff). Will Wisconsin jump Penn State? If not, the Nittany Lions are all but guaranteed a Rose Bowl bid (assuming Wisconsin doesn’t beat Ohio State). If yes, then it will depend on if Wisconsin can keep the Big Ten Championship Game close enough to still stay ahead of Penn State. The committee has shown a trend of not dropping teams too far for losing in conference championship games. We’ll see if this year’s committee holds to that.

Alabama, meanwhile, will certainly fall out of the Top 8. The question is how much lower the Tide lands. Will Alabama fall behind Penn State or Wisconsin? What about Florida? Will the committee drop Alabama far enough to move it behind Auburn? Remember, the highest-ranked Big Ten or SEC team after the Rose and Sugar Bowl selections are made will go to the Orange Bowl. Florida currently sits in that position, assuming Georgia loses the SEC Championship Game. Will Wisconsin take the Rose Bowl spot and move Penn State to the Orange Bowl? Or Will Alabama become the new leading two-loss team and sit in line for the Orange Bowl? Could we see–as Penn State’s win over Michigan got weaker and Florida’s win over Auburn got better–the Gators jump Penn State, and move in to Orange Bowl position for the SEC?

The Group of 5 teams

The last bit of curiosity–other than the options at the bottom of the rankings (many of which are defensible and none particularly strong)–is how far Cincinnati falls. Will the Bearcats slide significantly behind Boise State, enough to hint that the Broncos are the Cotton Bowl favorites if Cincinnati beats Memphis this week? Or will Cincinnati only fall one or two spots (or maybe even stay ahead of the Broncos), indicating that a win over Memphis will likely be enough to jump Cincinnati back into the Cotton Bowl? Maybe Air Force showing up at the No. 25 spot would shed some light on this, but there’s honestly zero reason for the committee to rank Air Force over a Navy team that beat it head-to-head, so don’t expect to see the Falcons in here.

Other than that, things are pretty simple for the selection committee this week. The Top 17 have essentially locked themselves in, and all the fighting is from 18 on down. There are a few small questions we can get answers to, but for the most part we know all of the scenarios heading into conference championship game weekend.

ESPN experts predict Alabama’s 2019 Bowl Game

The Alabama Crimson Tide football team may have suffered a heart-breaking loss in the 2019 Iron Bowl against Auburn that took them out of the running to participate in the College Football Playoff, but that doesn’t mean their season is done. Nick …

Nick Saban’s 10-2 team has been bowl eligible since beating Texas A&M in their Week 6 matchup at Kyle Field.

Well, since the Crimson Tide have one game left to play, it’s time to start guessing which bowl game they will be playing in and who they will be playing against.

ESPN college football experts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach weighed in.

Schlabach predicts Alabama will be making the trip to Dallas, Texas to face off against the Memphis Tigers of the American Athletic Conference in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic.

The 11-1 Tigers could potentially be the 2019 AAC Champions.

It is also worth noting that since 2016, Alabama has only lost to schools whose mascots are Tigers (Auburn, Clemson and LSU)

Bonagura has the Crimson Tide playing the Virgina Cavaliers in the 2019 Capital One Orange Bowl.

This would be Alabama’s second consecutive year in the Orange Bowl after they defeated the Oklahoma Sooners in the 2019 College Football Playoff Semi-final game to advance to the National Championship.

We are roughly two weeks away from knowing where Alabama will play their bowl game, and under three weeks away from the first bowl game being played on Dec. 20 when the Makers Wanted Bahama Bowl and the Frsco Bowl kick off.

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AP Poll: Notre Dame Back in Top 15

What it all means is that if Notre Dame wins out they’ll have a realistic chance at finishing the regular season in the top-10

The latest AP Poll is out after Week 12 concluded and Notre Dame moved up in that one as well, just like the Amway Coaches Poll Powered by USA Today, earlier today.

The latest poll is as follows:

Here is the new top 25:

1) LSU

2) Ohio State

3) Clemson

4) Georgia

5) Alabama

6) Oregon

7) Utah

8) Oklahoma

9) Penn State

10) Florida

11) Minnesota

12) Michigan

13) Baylor

14) Wisconsin

15) Notre Dame

16) Auburn

17) Cincinnati

18) Memphis

19) Iowa

20) Boise State

21) SMU

22) Oklahoma State

23) Appalachian State

24) Texas A&M

25) Virginia Tech

Others receiving votes:

Indiana 47, Iowa State 31, Virginia 23, Navy 13, Air Force 12, Pittsburgh 9, San Diego State 7, USC 6, Washington 6, Texas 4, Illinois 1

How high can Notre Dame get by the end of the year? It’ll need help to be in the top-10 but here are a few things to take note of:

Wisconsin and Minnesota still have to play in two weeks, while Baylor has a great chance of meeting Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship which would mean a pair of guaranteed loses ahead of Notre Dame.

It’s also worth noting Penn State and Michigan both have to play Ohio State where the Buckeyes will be favored against both, meaning two more very possible losses for teams Notre Dame is within shouting distance off.

Finally Oregon and Utah meeting in the PAC-12 Championship will mean one more guaranteed loss by one of them.

What it all means is that if Notre Dame wins out they’ll have a realistic chance at finishing the regular season in the top-10 and in turn, have an actual chance at a Cotton or Orange Bowl appearance.

Stay tuned as the Irish continue their quest for a ten-win regular season and possibly a NY-6 bowl as they welcome Boston College to South Bend on Saturday.

Nick’s Notre Dame Mailbag: Should ND Still Play Navy Annually?

Is it enjoyable? Not in the moment, but at the same time it’s one of the most unique rivalries in all of sports.

Earlier this week I solicited questions for the first of the weekly mailbag series we’ll have on Fighting Irish Wire. If you missed it there are a few ways to leave questions that may end up getting used:

1. Leave a comment on this or any other post on Fighting Irish Wire

2. Leave a question on our Facebook page – either on one of our posts or on our wall

3. Tweet us @IrishWireND or me personally @Shep670

4. Leave a comment on our Instagram Page. And even if you don’t leave a question – you should go follow it as it’s going to become a lot more active soon.

5. You can also click to e-mail me at the top of any of my posts on Fighting Irish Wire

With all of that said – here is your second Midweek Mailbag answered by yours truly.

Question 1: Should Notre Dame still play Navy annually?

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