There are three games on Christmas Day. These are Jess Root’s betting picks for the games.
The NFL wraps up the Week 16 schedule with three Monday games on Christmas Day. They are three games featuring some of the most popular teams and most relevant games.
It starts with the Las Vegas Raiders facing the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by the New York Giants at the Philadelphia Eagles and concludes with a potential Super Bowl preview with the Baltimore Ravens on the road against the San Francisco 49ers.
That gives you three Christmas games to make some wagers and help pay for Christmas!
Below are my betting picks for the three games on the schedule with the moneyline, the spread and the total.
Where will Andy Dalton be playing for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season? We look at the NFL betting odds and make our best bets.
The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to use the first overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft to select LSU QB Joe Burrow. Then they are expected to trade QB Andy Dalton. Here we will go over the odds and best bets for where Dalton will be playing in Week 1 when the 2020 NFL season begins.
Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions +10000
Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles +12500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks +15000
All other teams +25000
Best bets for Andy Dalton’s Week 1 team
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Thus far, the trade market has been quiet and the Bengals are even considering keeping Dalton as a veteran backup and mentor for their quarterback selection, which is expected to be Burrow.
It would be similar to when they selected Carson Palmer first overall in 2003 and had Jon Kitna as a mentor. The difference would be Burrow would play as a rookie while Palmer did not.
Recent reports suggest teams don’t want to trade for Dalton in the final year of his contract and pay him $17 million in 2020.
The Jaguars seem content with Gardner Minshew and just unloaded a less reliable starter in Nick Foles in a trade with the Chicago Bears. They already carry more than $18 million in dead money for Foles.
The Patriots make a ton of sense because they have Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham at quarterback after losing Tom Brady to free agency. They could draft one but if they don’t, Dalton would be the perfect fit. He is reliable and takes care of the ball. He could keep the Patriots competitive in a wide open AFC East division.
The Chargers already have a veteran in Tyrod Taylor, and are expected to select a quarterback in the draft to develop, so acquiring Dalton doesn’t make much sense.
If there are two best bets, it would be that either he stays in Cincinnati (+250) or lands with the Patriots after the draft (+750).
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Who will sign free-agent QB Jameis Winston? Assessing the betting odds, with picks and best bets for his Week 1 team.
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Former Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston remains a free agent as the NFL offseason inches toward the 2020 NFL Draft. With the few remaining QB-needy teams likely to address those roster holes Thursday, April 23, Winston’s potential landing spots seem to be quickly drying up. Below, we’ll look at the NFL betting odds for Winston’s next team and where he’ll be suiting up for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season.
There is little value at the top of the odds board, especially looking at how these four teams are planning to address the QB position in 2020.
The Jaguars are poised to enter the year with sophomore QB Gardner Minshew under center after trading Nick Foles. Should they look to bring in someone with more experience, former MVP Cam Newton would seem to be the more attractive option for a team in dire need of drawing some positive attention.
The Broncos received an impressive five-game sample from 2019 rookie Drew Lock in which he went 4-1 after taking over for Joe Flacco. He’ll be given every chance to become the team’s first legitimate replacement to Peyton Manning.
The Dolphins and Chargers are equipped with the No. 5 and 6 picks in the draft, respectively, and likely have their eyes on Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert.
Odds to sign Jameis Winston: Long shots
TEAM
ODDS
New England Patriots
+1000
Pittsburgh Steelers
+1000
Washington Redskins
+1500
New Orleans Saints
+1500
Las Vegas Raiders
+2500
Atlanta Falcons
+2500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+3000
Indianapolis Colts
+5000
Chicago Bears
+5000
Detroit Lions
+5000
New York Giants
+8000
New York Jets
+8000
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Best bets to sign Jameis Winston
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1000)
Cap space is the biggest issue for the Steelers, as they have just under $5.8 million in breathing room with 72 players under contract for 2020. If they can navigate the financial constraints, they have a clear need.
Thirty-eight-year-old QB Ben Roethlisberger has been hinting at an upcoming retirement for several years, and was limited to just two games by injury last season. Neither Mason Rudolph nor Devlin Hodges looked the part of a viable replacement.
Winston could regroup under Roethlisberger for a season or two before helping the Steelers make a smooth transition into a new era.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3000)
The Bucs moved on from their former No. 1 overall pick by signing Tom Brady early in the NFL’s free agency period. While Brady, who turns 43 in August, hasn’t missed a game since 2016, his current backup is scheduled to be Blaine Gabbert.
As Winston goes further and further into the offseason unsigned, his asking price is likely to continue dropping. A reunion at the right cost would make sense, as Winston is still highly regarded by Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht.
New York Jets (+8000)
The Jets share the highest odds on the board with the Giants. Sam Darnold, the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, has played just 13 games in each of his first two seasons, going 11-15. David Fales and Mike White are his current backups under center.
The Jets have more than $17 million in cap space with 76 players under contract. Adding Winston would create some competition for Darnold and could help keep the team competitive as a potential injury replacement.
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Looking at the teams most likely to trade for Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton, with betting odds, picks and best bets for his next team.
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The Carolina Panthersannounced QB Cam Newton had been granted permission to seek a trade Tuesday, shortly before they went out and agreed to terms on a new deal with New Orleans Saints impending free-agent QB Teddy Bridgewater. Below, we take a look at the BetMGM odds and make our picks and best bets for Newton’s next team.
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Best bets to acquire Cam Newton
Chicago Bears +140
The Bears have been very public about their interests in acquiring a veteran free agent to challenge incumbent starter Mitchell Trubisky in 2020. They had been loosely tied to Bridgewater, but now seem focused on either Cincinnati Bengals QB Andy Dalton or Jacksonville Jaguars QB Nick Foles.
Newton is a significant upgrade over both of those veterans, and in all likelihood over Trubisky, as well. Signed for just the 2020 season, he could allow the Bears to give Trubisky a much need refresh on the bench, before trying again with the former second overall pick in 2021.
Los Angeles Chargers +165
The Chargers allowed Philip Rivers to walk away in free agency and are now one of three teams picking at the top of the 2020 NFL Draft with a clear need at quarterback. With Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa likely to go to the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins, respectively, they may be fine settling for Jordan Love or Justin Herbert, or may choose to address another position of need.
Acquiring Newton allows the Chargers to address one of those other positions, while potentially targeting a rookie in the second or third round. If Newton flames out or proves to be not fully healthy, they could find themselves picking at the top of the 2021 draft in what’s expected to be a strong QB class, led by Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence.
New England Patriots +450
The Patriots are the fourth team without a clear starting option for the 2020 season already on the roster. They’re unlikely to turn from Brady to 2019 backup Jarrett Stidham.
Fitting Newton into head coach Bill Belichick’s ball-control system seems the biggest challenge, but the Pats are quickly running out of viable options.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2000
Already looking to unload Foles after just one year and left largely unimpressed with Gardner Minshew following his rookie season, the Jaguars could use a positive splash to help change the franchise trajectory. Newton immediately injects some star power into the roster and finally inspires some confidence at the most important position.
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Analyzing the 2020 NFL futures odds for which team will win the AFC North Division, with sports betting picks, tips and best bets.
It’s never too early to get into NFL Futures betting, even if we are just completing the scouting combine in Indianapolis and the draft and free agency hasn’t yet occurred. In fact, sometimes you can get a good price on a team before all hell breaks loose.
Case in point – the 2019 Cleveland Browns. They were near the bottom of the pack last spring before landing WR Odell Beckham Jr. from the New York Giants. After several other moves, which appeared to be shrewd, they went from long shots to one of the favorites two win the Super Bowl, seeing their number shrink exponentially. We see now that it was foolish to take them early or late, as they wet the bed and didn’t even come close to making the postseason.
Below, we look at the futures odds to win the AFC North.
The Ravens are one of just four division favorites with minus-odds, meaning you need to lay more than your potential return. That’s how heavily favored they are. In fact, they’re tied with the New Orleans Saints (NFC South) with the third-best chance of winning their respective division based on the odds – behind only the New England Patriots (AFC East) and defending champ Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West).
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QB Lamar Jackson took the NFL by storm last season, and there is no reason to believe he will be slowing down anytime soon. Plus, the Ravens defense is nasty. Couple that with the fact the Pittsburgh Steelers are still not hitting on all cylinders, the Browns are still the Browns, and the Cincinnati Bengals are picking No. 1 overall in the draft, and this should be a slam-dunk play.
2020 AFC North odds: Pittsburgh Steelers (+340)
The Steelers are expected to have QB Ben Roethlisberger back under center after losing him to a season-ending elbow injury in Week 1 last season. While he is getting a bit long in the tooth, he is much better for the team’s outlook than if Mason Rudolph or Devlin Hodges were taking snaps. They just missed out on a playoff spot with that duo at the helm. If the Steelers can grab a wideout playmaker in free agency or the draft, and plug a few holes, they could easily challenge the Ravens for the top spot. Coach Mike Tomlin seems to always have his team right there challenging in the end.
2020 AFC North odds: Cleveland Browns (+650)
The Browns still have an impressive offensive core with QB Baker Mayfield, RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Beckham and WR Jarvis Landry, etc. Plus, their defense is sick, too, returning DE Myles Garrett from his helmet-swinging suspension. They’re worth a small-unit wager, especially if they can add some beef to the O-line so Mayfield isn’t running for his life every down. The Browns will face a semi-favorable schedule due to their tumble down the standings to third place in 2019. Will they win the division? Probably not. But stranger things have happened, and their skill position players rival anyone in the NFL.
2020 AFC North odds: Cincinnati Bengals (+2000)
The Bengals are going to improve their personnel with the No. 1 overall pick, but they’re still much further away from the competition even with possibly adding a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback. In fact, QB isn’t really their biggest issue, as Andy Dalton was more than serviceable for many years. He is expected to be dealt, perhaps to the Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts or New England Patriots. They might get more draft picks in return from someone, helping them improve even quicker. However, they have so many holes to fill that it’s not worth taking a flier on them, even at this rate, which is sure to decrease slightly after some additions.
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Analyzing the 2020 NFL futures odds for which team will win the AFC South Division, with sports betting picks, tips and best bets.
Only dweebs insist “it’s too early to bet on the NFL.” If that were true, BetMGM wouldn’t have done us a solid and listed NFL division futures. The division we are tackling today is the AFC South, which has been dominated in recent years by the Houston Texans — to the tune of four division crowns in the last five seasons.
Below, we look at the futures odds to win the AFC South.
Is Bill O’Brien underrated? The Houston Texans are back-to-back reigning AFC South champions and have won the division four out of the six seasons he’s been the head coach. Even when O’Brien’s teams underperform they still find ways to win; the Texans finished last season with a 10-6 record but a minus-7 point differential. The offensive line, linebackers and the secondary are the most obvious areas of need for the Texans. Regardless of whether they adequately address these needs, we should expect O’Brien’s Texans to contend for the playoffs.
2020 AFC South odds: Indianapolis Colts (+200)
The good news about this offseason is that it cannot go worse than the last offseason when now-former quarterback Andrew Luck abruptly retired two weeks before the start of the regular season. Backup QB Jacoby Brissett was promoted to the first string and the Colts crested at 5-2 before losing seven of their final nine games to go Under their 7.5 regular-season O/U win total with a 7-9 record.
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Brissett’s future is in question and there’s a growing belief that the Colts will use free agency or the draft to upgrade at quarterback. They’ve been linked to Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater, but have also been projected to draft Jordan Love, Justin Herbert or even Tua Tagovailoa. But at this moment Brissett is at the helm and a limited supporting cast featuring Pro Bowl offensive guard Quenton Nelson, a depreciating WR T.Y. Hilton, and mediocre (yet somehow Pro Bowl) TE Jack Doyle. If the roster doesn’t dramatically improve this offseason, it could be another long, playoff-less season for the Colts.
2020 AFC South odds: Tennessee Titans (+200)
The Tennessee Titans (9-7) were the last remaining AFC South team in 2019, making it all the way to the AFC title game where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 35-24. Tennessee surged to a playoff appearance when QB Ryan Tannehill took over the starting job. Tannehill had a 7-3 record as a starter and was ranked first in yards per attempt and quarterback rating, and third in completion percentage. Still, the Titans are headed into the 2020 offseason facing questions because Tannehill and fellow Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry are free agents. Henry was the straw that stirred the Titans drink and his dominance was the key to the Titans’ stunning playoff upsets of the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens. It’s assumed the Titans will re-sign both Tannehill and Henry, but certainly not guaranteed. There’s even talk that head coach Mike Vrabel could lure free-agent QB Tom Brady down to Tennessee.
The third full season of the Doug Marrone tenure in Jacksonville was an unmitigated disaster. Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey became disgruntled and was traded to the Los Angeles Rams, V.P. of Football Operations Tom Coughlin was fired, and the Jaguars missed the playoffs for the second straight season—finishing with a 6-10 record—after winning the AFC South in 2017. Nick Foles signed a four-year, $88 million contract in the 2019 offseason, got injured in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs, and saw the Jaguars turn to rookie QB Gardner Minshew — who finished the season as the starter even as Foles came back for limited duty. All signs point to Minshew being the starter next season but, the defense that was elite the previous two seasons finished 24th in the NFL last year and could be the focus of the front office this offseason. The fall-off in defensive sturdiness and a typically unimpressive offense make it clear that the Jaguars are the AFC South team with the most work to do this offseason.
2020 AFC South odds: the pick
It’s surprising how good of a price the Houston Texans (+170) are getting. Houston is the only AFC South team that has its franchise quarterback—Deshaun Watson—locked up heading into free agency and the draft. When healthy, Watson is throwing to one of the best receiving corps in the NFL with DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills and Will Fuller. Just like every team, the Houston Texans need to make roster improvements, but as of now, they are for sure the best bet to win the 2020 AFC South title.
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Analyzing the 2020 NFL futures odds for which team will win the NFC South division, with sports betting picks, tips and best bets.
The early NFL futures odds for the 2020 division winners are out, allowing bettors to back their favorite teams or peruse other values from around the NFL. Odds will be continuously updated throughout the offseason, based on the NFL Draft, free agency and public betting action. Acting early and anticipating player movement can be a great way to maximize your payday.
Below, we look at the futures odds to win the NFC South.
The Falcons are coming off a second straight 7-9 season. They haven’t made the playoffs since back-to-back postseason trips in 2016 and ’17.
A six-game losing skid from Week 3 through Week 8 sunk Atlanta’s hopes last season, but it returned from a Week 9 bye to win six of its final eight games. With the closing stretch possibly signaling a turning point for head coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons are an adequate value to upset the Saints for the division crown.
New to sports betting? A $10 futures bet on the Falcons to win the NFC South returns a profit of $40 at the end of the regular season.
2020 NFC South odds: Carolina Panthers (+1100)
The Panthers lost their final eight games of 2019. After relying on quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Will Grier for the final 14 games of the season, the Panthers are expected to have former MVP Cam Newton back to full health for new head coach Matt Rhule’s first year in charge.
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Unsurprisingly, the Panthers have the worst odds to win the division after two fourth-place finishes in the last four years. The health of Newton is the biggest key as they look to return to the postseason for the first time since 2017 and win the division for the first time since winning three straight from 2013-2015. Expect a big step forward under Rhule, but it won’t be enough to topple the other three NFC South teams.
2020 NFC South odds: New Orleans Saints (-250)
A contract still needs to be worked out for QB Drew Brees, but it’s purely a formality at this point as he’ll be returning for a 20th season. The Saints have won three straight division titles and a total of six in Brees’ 14 seasons in NOLA.
The Saints are easily the safest pick to retain their crown in 2020, but there’s no value when needing to risk $40 for a return of $10. PASS on these odds and take a shot on the Falcons or Buccaneers to hedge against a potential injury to the Saints’ dynamic trio of Brees, RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas.
2020 NFC South odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+700)
The Buccaneers are an excellent example of the risk and reward involved in placing an early NFL futures bet. They haven’t won the division since 2007 and have finished last in seven of the last nine seasons. The team is expected to address the quarterback position this offseason heading into head coach Bruce Arians’ second year. QB Jameis Winston may be allowed to reach free agency, with a replacement brought in either through the draft, free agency or trade.
The early odds reflect the likelihood of Winston returning under center, but there’s upside in getting the Bucs at this number in advance of an upgrade at the most important position.
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Should you make a moneyline bet on the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs to hold a lead after the first quarter of Super Bowl LIV?
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Two of the NFL’s best offenses will square off Sunday in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The San Francisco 49ers ranked second in points scored this season, while the Kansas City Chiefs were fifth. Below, we’ll look at which team can get off to the better start in Super Bowl LIV with our best bet for the first-quarter moneyline.
We all know how good these offenses are, but which team will come out of the gates hotter? According to BetMGM, the first quarter moneyline is -110 for both teams. In other words, the oddsmakers don’t favor either the Chiefs or 49ers to hold the lead after the first 15 minutes.
If you’re going to bet on the first quarter moneyline, though, which team should you take?
Special sports betting line for the big game
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The Chiefs enter Super Bowl LIV as 1.5-point favorites against the spread, but as we saw in their first two playoff games, they’ve had to come from behind to earn their victories. Against the Houston Texans, they were down 24-0 early in the second quarter before mounting a huge comeback to win 51-31. The Tennessee Titans held a 10-point lead the following week, but Kansas City erased that deficit, too.
The 49ers, on the other hand, haven’t trailed once in these playoffs and were only tied once (after the opening score). They were tied 7-7 after one quarter against the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round, and they led 7-0 after 15 minutes against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship.
Our best bet: 49ers (-110)
(Photo Credit: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports)
So, based on recent history, the 49ers would look like the wiser bet for the first quarter moneyline. They’ve been more in control than the Chiefs this postseason and there were only four games this season in which they trailed after the first quarter. The Chiefs trailed after the first quarter seven times.
Only three teams were better than the 49ers in the first quarter this season. Their scoring margin in the first 15 minutes was plus-40, scoring 106 points to their opponents’ 66. The Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers were the only teams better in that department.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, were 12th in first-quarter scoring margin (plus-10). They scored 90 first-quarter points but allowed 80 to their opponents, which was 11th-worst in the NFL.
So if you’re going to wager on the first quarter money line, the 49ers look like a solid bet. They may not put up a ton of points with their ground-and-pound attack, but it’ll take the Chiefs some time to get in a rhythm offensively.
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Looking at the multitude of ways to bet Super Bowl LIV, and how to get NFL action on the San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup.
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Legal sportsbooks across the USA have rolled out the red carpet this week for those looking to get their NFL betting action on the Super Bowl LIV matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Our friends at BetMGM have a wide array of sports betting options for the big game, ranging from the outright winner to the result of the opening coin toss and everything in between and beyond.
Viewers and bettors don’t even need to be fans of either of this year’s participants to get a piece of the pie. Whether you’re looking to dip your toes in the water or dive headfirst into the sports betting pool, we at SportsbookWire have you covered. Here’s everything you need to know about betting Super Bowl LIV:
Super Bowl LIV betting: Outrights
As with any other game, the three main bet types are the Moneyline, Against the spread and the Over/Under. Here, we’re looking for the game winner, the winner against the points handicap and the total points scored in the game. The same betting logic applies as to any standard game, and you should be sticking by the same research methods which got you here.
Don’t get bogged down in the added volume of analysis and predictions around the Super Bowl. Everyone has a prediction. Look for values and if the line seems too close to call, step away and simply avoid the bet.
Be sure to investigate alternate lines, as well. The Super Bowl, like most games, brings with it a broad array of secondary options, such as lines for each half or quarter. Like the underdog to win the game outright? Bet them on more profitable lines to win by 1-6 points or exactly 3 points. These secondary lines can often be overlooked by the sportsbooks and are great sources of value as the betting public generally looks only at the principle lines and odds.
Special sports betting line for the big game
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Super Bowl LIV betting: Prop bets
Photo Credit: Kelley L Cox – USA TODAY Sports
Player props
There’s no better way to stay involved in every single play of the Super Bowl than with player props. Options exist for the first touchdown of the game, last touchdown, total touchdowns and yardage totals for most offensive players involved. Defensive players aren’t left out, either. Get action on the number of sacks recorded by key defenders, or “will they or won’t they” record an interception.
As usual, quarterbacks are the stars of the show. Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo will be front and center in head-to-head competitions for statistical production, or on individual props estimating their yardage, touchdown and interception totals.
The main attraction, of course, is for Super Bowl MVP. Most players involved in the game are listed with corresponding odds from Mahomes’ +110 as the odds-on favorite to longshot Chiefs P Dustin Colquitt at +50000. Be sure to research the trends and play the odds. A QB has been named the MVP of 29 of the 53 Super Bowls to date.
If you don’t like the risk of the player props, despite more profitable odds, team props can be the better route to take. These look at the precise winning margin, which team will score first, last or most often, as well as total touchdowns or field goals for either side.
Bets can be broken down by team or combine the two sides. Look at the season-long trends for both teams to get an idea of how many times they run, pass or punt per game. How many sacks did they record and how many points did they give up on average?
Keep in mind, the Super Bowl features the best teams from the AFC and NFC. Make sure to discount outlier stats racked up against an inferior, bottom-feeding opponent early in the season.
Game props
Here, bettors can get action right from the get-go by betting on the result of the coin toss. From there, bet between the first play of the game being a run or pass, the first scoring play being a field goal, touchdown or safety.
Game props can also look at total penalties in the game or which penalty will be called first, or most often. Keep checking BetMGM throughout the week, as more and more betting options are being posted as we near Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
With all these bets, it’s important to remember the odds at the sportsbook are reflective of which side is getting the most betting action. The Super Bowl typically draws in bets in hopes of high-scoring exciting games. Always be on the lookout for the best values. The most likely result isn’t always the most exciting. Know when to be contrarian and bet against the public.
Super Bowl LIV betting: Bankroll management
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports
Despite all the build-up and hype around the event, it’s important to remember for betting purposes the Super Bowl is just another game. Sure, it marks the end of the NFL season, but sports bettors still have plenty of options throughout the year and the MLB season is just around the corner.
While there are more betting options available than any other game thus far this season, the size of your wagers shouldn’t be any different than they’ve been up to this point. Whatever your standard betting unit may be (i.e. $1, $5, $10 or $100) you should still be sticking to the same number of units for any wager as you did in Weeks 1 through 17.
Also, know your budget going into this. Carefully peruse the available betting options, take notes of bets which may be of interest, and whittle down your final choices rather than placing bets on the fly. It can be easy to get sidetracked while “window shopping.” Look for the best values and be selective.
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Forecasting the odds on who will win Super Bowl LIV MVP, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.
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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will square off on Sunday night in Super Bowl LIV. It’s a game that’s chock full of prop bets for viewers to wager on. One of the more common prop bets is the winner of Super Bowl MVP, which can be difficult to predict.
Just like the regular-season MVP award, it’s a quarterback-favored honor. However, there have been more than a few instances where a non-quarterback has won it.
Special sports betting line for the big game
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Will this year be one of those cases? First, let’s look at the odds and who’s favored to win it.
Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the award. He has carried the Chiefs offense that ranked fifth in passing and 23rd in rushing, throwing for 26 touchdowns and five interceptions with 4,031 yards in only 14 games.
But when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl MVP, you first have to start with who you believe will win the game. Only one player in the history of the game has won Super Bowl MVP on the losing team (Chuck Howley, Super Bowl V).
So if you feel strongly about the Chiefs knocking off the 49ers on Sunday, Mahomes is a good bet. He’s going to get a ton of opportunities to throw the ball, attempting at least 25 passes in every game he started and finished this season; he averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game in 2019.
Mahomes is most likely going to score at least one touchdown, too. There have only been three games in his career where he didn’t throw at least one touchdown pass, and in one of those games, he scored a rushing touchdown.
The problem with betting Mahomes is that he’s only +110 to win it. That doesn’t provide much upside, because you’ll have to bet $10 just to win $11.
The quarterback on the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo, provides much greater value at +250. But he has only thrown 27 passes in the 49ers’ two wins this postseason with one touchdown and 208 yards. There have been eight games this season where he threw for 200 yards or less.
And as much as quarterbacks are favored for Super Bowl MVP, a non-QB has won it in three of the last six years – most recently with Julian Edelman taking home the award last year. If you’re going to bet on Garoppolo to win, I wouldn’t wager much because there’s a chance the 49ers will run the ball 30 times and only attempt 15 or so passes.
Instead, I’d rather go with someone like Raheem Mostert, who’s +750 to win MVP. He became the favorite option in the 49ers’ crowded backfield after Tevin Coleman injured his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game. Coleman would’ve been listed as questionable if the game were played yesterday, and it’s unclear what his status will be for the Super Bowl.
Watch Coleman’s status closely as the week progresses, because if he’s available, Mostert’s odds decrease – which will be reflected in the betting line.
Other good values for Super Bowl MVP include Nick Bosa (+2000) because of his pass-rushing ability against a team that throws the ball often, Coleman (+5000) if he’s healthy and plays, and even Richard Sherman (+8000) because of how often Mahomes is going to throw the ball. If Sherman has an interception or two, or a pick-six in a low-scoring game, he could win it.
A real long shot who might be worth putting a small wager on is Chiefs receiver/return specialist Mecole Hardman (+8000) because of his ability to make an impact as a returner. If he takes a kickoff or punt back for a touchdown and there aren’t many other scores, he could sneak in and win the award.
It’s not worth betting on a Chiefs defender because unless he forces a fumble on a running back, there isn’t a great chance of one making enough impact plays against the 49ers’ run-first offense.
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