Bookmark this page that will be updated as transactions change where notable players line up for new teams in 2024.
2024 fantasy football player movement tracker
2024 NFL off-season player movement tracker.
Tag: NFL trades
It turns out teams don’t often trade up into back of Round 1 for QB
If the 49ers are able to trade back from No. 31 it’s unlikely it’ll be because of a quarterback.
The 49ers are in a tough spot in the 2024 draft where they’re slated to pick No. 31 overall. By the time the board shakes out they’ll likely be faced with a handful of prospects they’d like better as Day 2 selections. The obvious solution would be to identify a team that might want to jump up into the back of the first round for a chance to snag a quarterback with the fifth-year option that comes with a first-round pick. The problem is that doesn’t happen very often.
Typically the players identified as potential targets in a trade up into the first round are QBs. And it makes sense. A QB slipping that far may need a little development and having that fifth year option could be valuable either negotiating a long-term deal, or in evaluating whether to keep that player beyond their rookie contract. It turns out that idea is a fine one in theory, but QBs slipping that far generally wind up going in Round 2 or later.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5375″ ]
Since the fifth-year option was implemented as part of the CBA in 2011, only two teams have traded up into the back of the first round for a quarterback. The Vikings did it in 2014 when they sent pick Nos. 40 and 108 to the Seahawks in exchange for the No. 32 selection where they picked QB Teddy Bridgewater.
The Ravens executed a similar deal in the 2018 draft to select QB Lamar Jackson. Baltimore sent pick Nos. 52 and 125, and a 2019 second-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for pick Nos. 32 and 132.
And that’s it. That concludes the history of teams trading up into the first round for a quarterback in the fifth-year-option era. If Bo Nix and/or Michael Penix Jr. slip to No. 31 this year, there’s a much higher likelihood they’re still on the board in Day 2 than there is a team jumps up to pick them at the end of Day 1.
For the 49ers a trade back might come from a club looking to jump the Chiefs for a wide receiver. Or a cornerback might slip that another team values more than San Francisco. There are definitely options and scenarios where a trade up into Round 1 involves a QB, but the 49ers aren’t likely to benefit from that since such a move has been a rarity across the last 12 drafts.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
How Amon-Ra St. Brown contract might facilitate Brandon Aiyuk trade
The Lions signed Amon-Ra St. Brown to a monster contract extension that may push Brandon Aiyuk’s price out of the #49ers’ range.
There’s a new contract on the wide receiver market, and it’s resetting how WRs will get paid moving forward. It’s also resetting what standard 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk may be looking for in a deal.
The Lions and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown agreed to a four-year deal worth more than $120 million with $77 million guaranteed according to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport.
While the 49ers will surely want to give Aiyuk something in the range of what Eagles WR DeVonta Smith received – three years, $75 million – Aiyuk’s camp is going to circle the St. Brown deal that put the Lions WR’s average annual value north of $30 million.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5375″ ]
St. Brown over his three NFL seasons has posted similar numbers to Aiyuk with 3,588 yards and 21 touchdowns. In that same stretch Aiyuk has 3,183 yards and 20 touchdowns. The key difference is Aiyuk has done it on 209 catches where St. Brown has hauled in 315.
A report from the San Francisco Chronicle’s Mike Silver on Tuesday indicated the 49ers weren’t willing to go way up north of $25 million annually. It’s hard to believe given that information that something beyond $30 million will be on the table for them.
If the team can’t get Aiyuk to come down from that number, they may be incentivized to move him during this year’s draft where teams like the Jaguars, Steelers and Colts could all be suitors. In the event they don’t deal him and they can’t come to an agreement on an extension, they risk losing him for nothing more than a future compensatory pick in the offseason.
On the other hand, the St. Brown deal could be structured in a way that puts the number below an actual $30 million AAV and into something more palatable that the 49ers could conceivably replicate with their star receiver.
While general manager John Lynch expressed a desire to keep Aiyuk and said he wouldn’t anticipate the WR not being on the 49ers’ roster by Friday – the second day of the draft – there are financial factors at play that may force San Francisco’s hand. And in that case we may not see Aiyuk in a 49ers uniform again.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
Finally, a hypothetical Brandon Aiyuk trade that makes some sense
If (IF) the 49ers trade Brandon Aiyuk, this is the type of seismic deal to expect:
Hypothetical Brandon Aiyuk trades have been one of the topics du jour this NFL draft season. Much of the trade chatter around the 49ers’ star wide receiver has been publicly refuted by Aiyuk’s agent, but that hasn’t stopped some wild potential trades from being thrown about on the internet.
For the most part the fake Aiyuk trades haven’t been grounded in reality. The 49ers don’t want to move Aiyuk and there’s no reason at press time to believe he’s going to want a contract beyond what the 49ers will be willing to stomach. Still, most trades have been structured as though San Francisco is just looking to punt on the Second-Team All-Pro. Thankfully, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell in his mock draft that features trades at every pick actually proposed the type of trade we might see if Aiyuk does get moved.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5375″ ]
It’s worth noting the 49ers would have suitors for Aiyuk if they made him available. The chances they’d acquiesce to a trade that landed them anything less than a first-round pick in this year’s draft seem slim. That’s why Barnwell’s proposed trade works. He has San Francisco sending Aiyuk and pick Nos. 31 and 94 in this year’s draft to the Los Angeles Chargers for pick Nos. 5 and 181 this year.
To be clear, Barnwell isn’t reporting this deal. However, if we see Aiyuk dealt on Draft Night, it’ll likely be in a deal of this magnitude. It’ll be one that moves the needle pretty significantly. There’s unlikely to be a trade that features the 49ers receiving a second-round pick and a couple of other later selections.
At the fifth overall pick San Francisco would have a strong foundation to either get Aiyuk’s replacement with whichever of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze is available and atop their board. They’d also likely have their pick of offensive tackles at No. 5 overall. If they could snag a player like Notre Dame OT Joe Alt it’s hard to envision a scenario where they don’t come out of Day 1 of the draft as a pretty big winner.
Then they’d have an opportunity on Day 2 to either get aggressive in Round 2 and move up, or trade down into the third and pick up some additional capital later on Day 2 or in Day 3.
Our official stance is that we don’t believe Aiyuk will be dealt. This is a fascinating scenario though and the 49ers would have to put themselves in that kind of top-five position to even begin justifying shipping out a rising young superstar.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
49ers pick WR in Round 1 of mock draft decided by betting markets
Here’s a thing that’s probably not going to happen to the 49ers in this year’s draft:
Pro Football Focus published a fun spin on a mock draft where author Arjun Menon crafted a 32-pick projection based on odds implied by betting markets. That is to say each player was selected based on which player has the best odds to go to a team. It’s a fun process, but the 49ers pick for it comes with a pretty sizable flaw.
Menon’s mock sends Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey to the 49ers because “it seems like the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk are moving further apart in contract negotiations with each passing day.”
We’ll put a pin in the assumption on contract negotiations for now and focus instead on the potential trading of Aiyuk itself.
McConkey landing with the 49ers is certainly not out of the question. He’s a versatile, tough WR who spends an almost comedic amount of time running open. It’s easy to see why head coach Kyle Shanahan would love having a player like him to pair with quarterback Brock Purdy for the foreseeable future.
What isn’t accounted for in the world where the 49ers are drafting McConkey because they traded Aiyuk is that they’d likely only deal Aiyuk for a first-round pick this year. Perhaps it’s the Jaguars and the No. 17 choice. Maybe it’s the Steelers with the 20th pick. Either way if we’re going to venture into this world where the 49ers are trading Aiyuk, there should be additional implication that the trade fetched them something in the first round.
Perhaps odds aren’t accounting for that possibility despite the fact “it seems like the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk are moving further apart in contract negotiations with each passing day.” Maybe McConkey being the implied favorite to land in San Francisco has nothing to do with Aiyuk.
It should still at least be acknowledged that if the 49ers are dealing the All-Pro wide receiver it would be for a first-round pick this year and probably something else. The Titans received Nos. 18 and 101 for WR AJ Brown. Baltimore got the No. 23 pick for WR Marquise Brown and the 100th overall selection.
It’s easy to envision a scenario where the 49ers trade Aiyuk and pick a wide receiver in the first round. It’s also not hard to see the 49ers picking a WR in Round 1 without trading Aiyuk. What is difficult is to see the 49ers dealing Aiyuk this offseason for anything less than a first-round pick in this year’s draft.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
Brandon Aiyuk’s social media post just following contract negotiation playbook
Don’t freak out about Brandon Aiyuk’s social media activity. (Do freak out if the 49ers trade him though).
Brandon Aiyuk on Monday sent various corners of the internet where 49ers fans reside into a tizzy with a simple Instagram post. The All-Pro wide receiver posted to his story a set of emojis that translated roughly to “money talks, defecation from some kind of horned bovine creature walks.”
The only thing keeping this from being a textbook play from a player negotiating a contract is that it wasn’t quite cryptic enough. The message was loud and clear (and not particularly groundbreaking): Aiyuk wants to get paid.
Aiyuk’s desire to achieve the proverbial bag this offseason isn’t a secret. It’s not a secret any time an ascending All-Pro player is due for his second NFL contract. The post from Aiyuk is a typical move to negotiate as best as possible through the public. He can control the discourse with a couple taps on his phone since general manager John Lynch is going to say all the right things publicly about how they’re working toward a deal and they want Aiyuk around long-term. He’ll also say things like the 49ers are okay with letting Aiyuk play out his fifth-year option.
While Lynch does that, Aiyuk can whip fans into a frenzy to try and apply some kind of external pressure on the 49ers.
That’s the extent of the damage he can do with a social media post though. The 49ers front office didn’t see Aiyuk’s IG story and have some kind of revelation that they may need to pay him top-five WR money. There have been zero points since the start of the 2023 season when that hasn’t been the case. He was stellar in 2022 and backed it up with an even better 2023. There are a million reasons they’ll want to keep him in the building.
We can expect more of this kind of thing going forward if other players contract negotiations are instructive at all. At some point there’ll be another social media post from Aiyuk or someone close to him indicating he’s on his way out. There will be teams and people followed and unfollowed on social media. Photos and posts will be deleted. There might even be a public trade demand in there.
None of these public negotiation tactics will ultimately matter because none of it is out of the ordinary. We’ve seen it time and time again, and it doesn’t alter the 49ers’ course of negotiations at all. Just like Lynch saying all the right things won’t change Aiyuk’s course of negotiation. What will matter is what’s going on behind closed doors.
It’s clear the 49ers want to keep Aiyuk, but they’ll have a price point. Whether Aiyuk’s price point falls at or below where the 49ers are willing to go remains to be seen. Those negotiations are certainly underway on some level, but they’ve likely not begun in earnest.
There are two deadlines, one hard and one soft. The hard deadline is the 2024 NFL draft which starts on Thursday, April 25. If San Francisco is going to trade Aiyuk it’s likely they’d want to do so by Day 1 of the draft to ensure they’re maximizing their return in a way that will help them this season.
The soft deadline is the start of training camp. The 49ers have typically done business in a way that sees long-term extensions get done either just before or early on in training camp. We saw defensive end Nick Bosa take his negotiations on a new contract up to the first week of the regular season, but that hasn’t been the usual timeline for San Francisco and its star players.
It’s unlikely there’s a smooth path to the conclusion of the Aiyuk saga. Regardless of how it ends there are going to be twists and turns. While we don’t know how this all will end, we do know it’s not going to turn either direction based on an either cryptic or not-so-cryptic social media post.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
John Lynch: 49ers not having trade talks about Brandon Aiyuk
John Lynch addressed the Brandon Aiyuk trade stuff at the NFL owners meetings.
The Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors have started flying with the first waves of free agency starting to slow down. Reports have surfaced about the Jaguars and Steelers both being interested in Aiyuk, but 49ers general manager John Lynch on Monday at the NFL owners meetings denied any report that San Francisco has had talks about trading the 26-year-old All-Pro.
According to NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco, Lynch said the 49ers are in talks with Aiyuk about an extension and that any reports of trade discussions are false. Lynch also noted the 49ers would be fine letting Aiyuk play out the fifth year of his rookie contract with no long-term extension.
John Lynch said the 49ers are actively talking with Brandon Aiyuk and there has been no trade discussions. All those reports are not accurate, Lynch said. He said the team would be OK with Aiyuk playing on the fifth-year option.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoNBCS) March 25, 2024
The problem isn’t whether the 49ers would let Aiyuk play out the deal. It’s whether Aiyuk would be willing to take the field without an extension. San Francisco holds most of the power here since skipping a year would also lose a year of service for Aiyuk, putting him right back in the same spot next season.
However, the 49ers aren’t likely to want Aiyuk playing on that fifth-year option for a couple reasons. First, that may sever the long-term relationship entirely if they make him play without any kind of long-term security. Second, his $14.2 million cap hit this year could actually be reduced via a longer-term deal.
This is where the contract negotiation part of this comes in and it’s why the 49ers should have some optimism about getting a deal done. It’s in their best interest to give Aiyuk what he deserves, and it’s in Aiyuk’s best interest to get that deal signed so he can go into 2024 with the proverbial bag in hand.
Alas, those negotiations will happen as much in public as they do in private. Lynch could very easily be lying about the trade talks and the willingness to let Aiyuk play on the fifth-year option. If Aiyuk’s camp is looking for a deal north of what the 49ers are willing to pay, then a trade will have to be on the table if they want to recoup anything for the WR.
All of this should happen relatively quickly though. If San Francisco’s brass believes they’ll have to trade the receiver, they’ll want to do so before this year’s draft to ensure they’re going to get quality draft capital that can help this year.
If a trade doesn’t materialize, then we can expect this to go well into the offseason and even into training camp. That’s how the 49ers have typically done business, and it appears they’re on track to follow the same path they’ve followed with Fred Warner, George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel in recent seasons.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]
Lions among teams interested in a L’Jarius Sneed trade
Lions among teams expressing interest with the Chiefs in a L’Jarius Sneed trade, per USA TODAY
It’s all just talk now, but there is more evidence that there could be some fire to the trade smoke involving the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.
USA TODAY confirmed the Lions are among a handful of teams that have expressed interest with the Chiefs in a potential trade for cornerback L’Jarius Sneed.
A person with direct knowledge of the situation told USA TODAY Sports that the Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars have expressed interest in the Chiefs corner.
The Chiefs placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Sneed, which allows for the top-notch corner to work out a trade to another team.
Five NFL trades that need to happen
Five NFL trades that need to happen
One player each NFL team could trade before the deadline, from Jerry Jeudy to Saquon Barkley
Ahead of the NFL trade deadline, here are some players who could be on the move, including Jerry Jeudy and Saquon Barkley.
The NFL’s trade deadline is fast approaching, and there are a number of notable names who could be on the move.
There are several contending teams that could be looking to shore up an area of weakness as they aim to make a postseason run. Not to mention, there are a number of struggling teams looking to sell some big-name players to acquire additional draft capital.
Ahead of the Oct. 31 deadline, let’s look at some other players who might be on the move (at time of publication), with one from every NFL team, as assembled by our NFL Wires staff.