Tag: next gen stats

Ravens RB Mark Ingram exceeded expectations in 2019

Despite playing with the best offensive line in the league, Baltimore Ravens running back exceeded expectations on the ground last season

When the Baltimore Ravens signed running back Mark Ingram in free agency last offseason, they picked up a workhorse capable of leading their rushing attack. That signing proved to be one of the best of the offseason for any team, with Ingram greatly exceeding expectations.

Breaking the 1,000-yard mark on the ground and finding the end zone a total of 15 times with a lowly cap hit of just $3.33 million made Ingram a great bang for the buck. But while some have argued Ingram was a product of Baltimore’s offensive line, a run-first offensive scheme that used quarterback Lamar Jackson as a decoy, the stats tell a more compelling story.

Next Gen Stats created a new advanced statistic through a competition involving over 2,000 data scientists: “expected rushing yards” (ERY). As simple as it sounds, ERY measures the number of yards a ball carrier is “expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders.”

Nick Shook of Around the NFL compiled a list of the running backs with the greatest “rushing yards over expected” (RYOE). Ingram ranked eighth on the list, with an extra 0.51 yards-per-carry over what was expected. Extrapolating that out for the season, Ingram earned an extra 115 rushing yards last season. The Ravens’ offensive line was the best in the league on the ground last season, making Ingram’s RYOE even more impressive.

The Ravens’ offensive line ranked first in the NFL, paving the way for 1,815 ERY. However, Baltimore actually put up 3,296 rushing yards for the season, breaking a 41-year old record for single-season rushing yards in the process. That means the Ravens’ rushers outgained expectations by a whopping 1,481 yards (92.6 yards-per-game / 2.5 yards-per-carry).

Entering the 2020 season, the Ravens are once again expected to be among the best rushing teams in the league, largely thanks to Ingram’s prowess. If he can continue to exceed expectations like he did in 2019, Baltimore will be in great hands once again.

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Stat shows Rams’ O-line wasn’t as bad as it seemed in the running game

The Rams offensive line may not have been the issue in the running game last season.

Could it be possible that the Rams’ offensive line wasn’t actually the problem in the running game? According to one metric, it seems that way.

Next Gen Stats developed a new statistic that measures an offensive line’s effectiveness at creating yards for its running backs. It’s called expected rushing yards per carry, putting into perspective how successful a line was at creating opportunities in the running game compared to other units across the NFL.

The Rams surprisingly ranked ninth in the NFL despite finishing 26th in rushing yards and 18th in attempts last season. The offensive line had an expected yards per carry (xYPC) of 4.31 compared to the actual team average of only 3.7 yards per carry.

Here’s a snippet of Next Gen Stats’ evaluation of the Rams from last season:

The Rams should really be commended for landing on this list, especially after losing Joe Noteboom early in the season and needing a replacement so badly, they swung a deal (which could end up being a steal) with the Browns for Austin Corbett in the middle of the season. This might also be the most damning piece of evidence related to Todd Gurley’s future, as we covered above with Atlanta. The league average in xYPC was 4.18 last season, so the Rams’ mark of 4.31 is nothing to scoff at. Yet, the Rams weren’t able to break 4 yards per carry with Gurley (and friends) in the backfield.

The Rams cut Gurley for multiple reasons, not exclusively because of his knee issues or bloated contract. It was a combination of the two, in addition to his regression from 2018 to 2019. He simply didn’t do enough to create yards on his own, and this metric from Next Gen Stats reinforces that idea.

The Rams have to hope Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson, as well as a dash of Malcolm Brown, will improve the running game. It remains to be seen how that committee will play out when the season begins, but the Rams plan to run the ball more often – and hopefully, more effectively in 2020.

Cowboys News: Tank could skip camp, CeeDee Lamb will tote the rock

Also, new COVID protocols, the NFL’s offer to cancel the preseason, rookie signings, and a former Cowboys star lands a head coaching gig.

It was just another manic Monday in Cowboys Nation. Rookies were signing contracts on the eve of training camp while a veteran superstar was debating whether he’ll come to camp at all. The league was simultaneously scrapping preseason games and instituting coronavirus protocols.

And during it all, there was still time to imagine CeeDee Lamb as a rusher, to wonder what a certain free agent edge rusher might bring to the table, to congratulate a former Dallas dominator on his new job, to fight over Madden ratings, and nerd out over a new metric that could re-ignite the debate over just how important running backs really are. Here’s the News and Notes dump for July 20.

Cowboys’ DeMarcus Lawrence debating whether to report to training camp :: ESPN

With the 2020 campaign looming and a pregnant wife at home, the defensive standout has a difficult decision to make in the middle of a global health crisis. “But my No. 1 concern is will I be able to see my family and be there for my daughter’s birth?” Lawrence said.

A team-by-team prediction: The next wave of NFL standouts :: The Athletic

Not surprising: rookie sensation CeeDee Lamb is expected to be a breakout impact starter in the Dallas offense. Perhaps surprising: the electrifying wideout may rack up rushing yards, too. “Look for second-year offensive play caller Kellen Moore to get Lamb touches as an outside receiver, inside receiver, and ballcarrier on jet sweeps.”

Cowboys begin signing 2020 rookie class ahead of camp :: Cowboys Wire

Defensive end Bradlee Anae, the Cowboys’ fifth-round draft pick out of Utah, and quarterback Ben DiNucci, the team’s seventh-round selection from James Madison, both agreed to terms with the club on Monday.

Daily tests, proximity trackers among new COVID-19 protocols for Cowboys camp :: Cowboys Wire

The league and players union have reached an agreement that players, coaches, and designated staff who interact with them will undergo COVID-19 testing daily throughout the first two weeks of training camp. Testing could drop to every other day if the test positivity rate drops below 5%. Also, players will be required to test negative more than once before reporting for team activities.

No Cowboys-Chiefs? NFL offers to nix 2020 preseason :: Cowboys Wire

The league has reportedly acquiesced to the NFLPA’s call for no 2020 preseason games. The move will give teams more acclimation time and reduce player exposure during the exhibition contests.

Dallas Cowboys should circle back on free agent Jadeveon Clowney :: Inside the Star

Would signing the former top overall draft pick make up for the front office’s bungling of the Dak Prescott contract situation? No. Would adding the three-time Pro Bowler who’s had multiple nine-sack seasons greatly improve the Cowboys’ defensive line? Absolutely.

5 most underrated or overrated Cowboys in Madden 21 ratings :: Cowboys Wire

Zack Martin at 98. Amari Cooper at 93. La’el Collins at 87. Dak Prescott at 84. Chidobe Awuzie at… 82? See who came in too high and who got robbed in the game’s latest ratings.

Ex-Cowboys player named head coach at college in Texas :: 247Sports

Former defensive standout Greg Ellis is the next head football coach at Texas College, located in Tyler. But he’ll have plenty of time to ramp up for his new gig; earlier this month, the Steers became the first NAIA team to cancel their 2020 football season.

Next-gen stats: Intro to expected rushing yards :: NFL.com

Analytics nerds, rejoice. There’s a new metric in town. Data scientists from around the world participated in a contest to come up with a way to forecast how many yards a ball carrier should gain from the moment of handoff. It’s heady stuff that factors in “the relative location, speed, and acceleration features of every player on the field” to come up with things “like first-down probability and touchdown probability” on any given rushing attempt.

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Myles Garrett was the NFL’s best disruptive pass rusher in 2019

Browns DE Myles Garrett posted the highest pressure rate of any player since 2016, per the NFL’s own Next Gen Stats

Myles Garrett took his already impressive skills to a new level in 2019. The Browns defensive end was in the midst of an incredible season before his suspension cut everything short.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Garrett was the most disruptive pass rusher in the league in 2019.

The metric for disruption includes the combined total of hurries, pressures or sacks divided by the number of pass rush snaps per player. Only one form of disruption counts per play (a sack doesn’t also count as a hurry). And nobody did it better in 2019 than No. 95 in brown and orange.

Garrett’s disruption rate was the best in the NFL. He registered a pressure on 17.1 percent of dropbacks in 2019, which was the highest percentage posted by a player since the 2016 season. He also became one of just three players to post a pressure rate of 12 percent or higher in each of the last three seasons.

As a surprise bonus for the Browns, Cleveland’s unheralded free agent signee, Adrian Clayborn, ranks 9th on the list.

Chargers TE Hunter Henry among elite pass catchers in 2019

Los Angeles Chargers tight end Hunter Henry flourished in 2019.

Chargers tight end Hunter Henry was hampered by a knee injury in Week 1 of the 2019 season, which kept him out for four weeks of action. Upon returning, Henry was a force to be reckoned with, especially in the passing game.

Henry was a matchup nightmare, showing the ability to win in a variety of ways, whether that be shorter routes or in the middle of the field. As a result, the former Arkansas product posted 55 catches for 652 receiving yards and five touchdowns in 12 contests.

Henry’s dominance as a receiver was recognized by NFL Media’s Nick Shook, as he was listed as the seventh-best pass-catcher in the NFL in 2019.

Shook’s used “catch rate above expectation,” which is simply the difference between a player’s catch rate last season compared to his expected catch rate, which is calculated by Next Gen Stats.

Henry had a plus-8.4-percent difference between his actual catch rate and his expected catch rate, finishing a spot above 49ers’ George Kittle, who is touted as one of the best at the position.

Henry battled through the adversity of suffering a torn ACL in 2018 to return, appear in 12 games and catch over 70 percent of the passes intended for him in 2019. While the Chargers struggled in the final year of the Philip Rivers era, Henry did not, posting a positive catch-rate difference of over 8 percent. He flourished in the end zone, catching 60 percent of his targets in the money-making stretch of 10 yards for three of his five total touchdowns.

Most importantly, Henry succeeded by finding the soft spots in the defense. His air yards per target (10.2) landed near what the wideouts in this group managed, and he did so by creating space for himself in those soft spots, as evidenced by his tight-window percentage of just 13.2. Talk about increasing your chances.

Henry, 25, had the franchise tag placed on him earlier this offseason. He said that him and the Chargers were in talks of a long-term extension, but the coronavirus pandemic put negotiations to a halt.

It remains to be seen if the two parties will agree to an extension before the season, but it’s evident that Los Angeles wants to keep him around for awhile.

Henry is dealt with issues since 2016, but when he is on the field he is a key piece of the offense. He will look to not only continue to flourish as a pass-catcher and run-blocker, but stay healthy for a full 16-game slate, which would mark the first time in his professional career.

To see the rest of Shook’s list of top pass-catchers from last season, you can check it out here.

Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett ranked 2nd-best pass catcher in 2019

Using Next Gen Stats, NFL writer Nick Shook determined Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett was the second-best pass catcher in 2019.

While fans around the country wait to find out whether or not there will be a 2020 NFL regular season, analysts are busy pumping out the stories to keep them engaged.

Around the NFL writer Nick Shook recently took a look at all the wide receivers from last year to put together his list of the 10 best pass catchers of 2019.

Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett landed in the No. 2 spot just behind Saints wideout Michael Thomas.

“Lockett’s catch-rate difference is nearly equal to Thomas’, but he achieved it via a much different method,” Shook explains. “Lockett enjoyed an average cushion of more than a yard above Thomas’ rate (6.1 to 4.8), and as a result, his targets came with over 4 more air yards on average. Interestingly, Lockett’s opponents rarely pressed him, doing so just 15.5 percent of the time, likely fearful of his potential to beat them deep after winning the jam at the line. That produced a lower yards-per-target average of 9.6, which is similar to Thomas’ (9.3) despite facing much different coverage at the snap.”

Here are the numbers he found for Lockett per Next Gen Stats: Catch rate: 74.5%. Expected catch rate: 61.9%. Difference: 12.6%.

“Lockett has a flair for making the tough catch, though, so it should come as little surprise that he tied Thomas atop the catch-rate difference leaderboard,” Shook continues. “Defenses should probably stop leaving him wide open, though; he owned the highest wide-open rate of this group (22.7%).”

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Next Gen Stats say Broncos had the best draft

After crunching the numbers, it looks like the Broncos had the best draft in the NFL.

On paper, it looks like the Denver Broncos had a great draft class. After crunching the numbers, the NFL’s Next Gen Stats account on Twitter determined that the Broncos had the best draft this year.

“The Broncos, Colts, Ravens, Titans and Steelers prioritized athleticism and production throughout the draft, as represented by average overall draft score of their class according to the Next Gen Stats draft model,” the league’s advanced stats account tweeted on Saturday evening.

Here’s a look at the team’s grades using the Next Gen Stats model:

Team Grade
Denver Broncos 77
Indianapolis Colts 75
Baltimore Ravens 74
Tennessee Titans 74
Pittsburgh Steelers 74

“The Next Gen Stats draft model analyzes historical college performance data to represent a player’s production in a single score based on the metrics that best predict NFL success,” according to @NextGenStats on Twitter.

Of course, looking good on paper doesn’t always translate to success on the field. But this sure seems like a good sign for Denver’s draft class.

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Seahawks’ 2020 draft class has most athleticism so far

The Seattle Seahawks’ 2020 NFL Draft class has the most combined athleticism of any team after two days. The draft will conclude today.

The Seattle Seahawks’ 2020 NFL Draft selections through the first three rounds have generally polarized fans and analysts, but there is one particular trait they have in common.

NFL Next Gen Stats gave the Seahawks the highest “Average Athleticism Score” of any team so far.

This tweet was followed with another that stated the definition of their athleticism score and explained it does not include certain positions such as quarterback, offensive tackle, and guard.

This means that only linebacker Jordyn Brooks and defensive end Darrell Taylor qualify in this category.

Brooks and Taylor are recognized for their athleticism and certainly have the potential to be valuable contributors moving forward. Fans will soon see what the Seahawks do in the final four rounds as the draft concludes.

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5 biggest plays of Cowboys much needed, 44-21 win over Rams

The Cowboys managed to pick up a much needed win against the Rams. Here are the biggest plays of the game with advanced stats via nflscrapR.

It was a much needed victory on Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys emerged with a 44-21 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Prior to the start of the game, the Philadelphia Eagles briefly stood in first place in the NFC East after their narrow, 37-27 win against the Washington Redskins. This made the situation all the more dire for the Cowboys, who had been on a three-game losing skid.

Dallas rose to the occasion, retaking their lead in the division and returning to .500 with a record of 7-7. In a contest that was not particularly close, here are the biggest plays of the game using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) models from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position.

The Plays

No. 1 Dak Prescott pass deep middle to Amari Cooper for 19 yards

EPA: 3.1. DAL WP Shift: 50% to 59%

The Cowboys’ first big play of the game came on their second possession. Facing a third-and-10 situation, the Cowboys were able to convert thanks to a well placed pass from Prescott to Cooper for a 19-yard gain. On the play the Rams were in zone coverage, with cornerback Jalen Ramsey lined up on Cooper. Ramsey might have been expecting help on the play, as Cooper was able to find the void in the middle of the defense for a huge gain.

No. 2 Prescott pass short right to Jason Witten for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.7. DAL WP Shift: 58% to 71%

Following Cooper’s big catch the Cowboys’ second drive would end with a 19-yard touchdown from Prescott to Witten. The play featured Witten matched up against safety Marqui Christian. Witten was able to separate from the defender on a simple out route.

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His touchdown came on an impressive one-handed catch, putting the Cowboys up 7-0 near the end of the first quarter.

No. 3 Prescott pass deep left to Tavon Austin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 5.2. DAL WP Shift: 53% to 71%

The Rams picked up a touchdown on a short 2-yard pass from Jared Goff to Todd Gurley at the start of the second quarter. It wasn’t long before the Cowboys would regain the lead. On their ensuing drive it only took three plays for them to score on the most explosive play of the game, a 59-yard touchdown pass from Prescott to Austin.

Austin ran a crossing route down the middle of the field, but two Rams defenders ran into each other, both being essentially knocked out of the play. It explains why this play is the most “open” deep completion of the season according to Next Gen Stats.

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No. 4 Johnny Hekker punts 67 yards to DAL 3-yard line

EPA: 2.0. DAL WP Shift: 78% to 69%

It is odd to see how one of the biggest plays of the game for the Rams is a punt, but that is exactly the case. Back at their own 30-yard line, Hekker unloaded a lengthy punt that was downed at the Cowboys’ 3-yard line. From where the Cowboys started their next drive the Expected Points from this part of the field was minus-0.8, meaning from this position, the opposing team was in better scoring position.

No. 5 Goff pass short middle intended for Robert Woods, INTERCEPTED by Sean Lee

EPA: -4.6. DAL WP Shift: 88% to 94%

After the huge punt from Hekker the Cowboys moved the ball down the length of the field. The drive spanned 14 plays, 97 yards gained and six first downs in total. It would end with a 1-yard rushing touchdown from Ezekiel Elliott giving the Cowboys a 21-7 lead with the half drawing to a close.

When the Rams received the ball late in the second quarter their WP stood at a meager 13%. In order to have a chance, they needed to come away with some points on their next drive. However, any hope of a possible comeback would be short lived.

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On this play the Cowboys were in zone coverage, Lee was responsible for the middle zone. After the snap Goff appeared to be targeting Woods on a in-breaking route. Lee picked up on this and was able to jump the route for what would be a 25-yard interception return.

The Cowboys started their next drive with excellent field position at the Rams’ 9-yard line. After a 3-yard rushing touchdown from Elliott, the score was 28-7 to end the half. The Rams’ WP bottomed at 3% and the game was never competitive from this point on.

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NFL Next Gen Stats show Julio Jones still has elite speed

NFL Next Gen Stats tweeted out the five fastest performers from Week 11 and the 30-year-old Jones was listed at No. 5.

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones has been remarkably consistent over his nine NFL seasons. His intelligence as a route runner is only rivaled by his all-time great athleticism.

NFL Next Gen Stats tweeted out the five fastest performers from Week 11 and the 30-year-old Jones was listed at No. 5. Check out the video below of him surpassing 20 mph on his 48-yard reception against the Panthers:

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