Tag: MLB odds lines picks predictions

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (51-52) and Pittsburgh Pirates (39-64) tangle in the second game of a three-game series Saturday at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 7-6 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 115 1/3 IP spanning 20 starts.

The veteran right-hander has been shaky on the road with a 5.52 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 58 2/3 IP. He posted a 7.99 ERA across five starts from June 19-July 20 but then came out and tossed an 8 2/3 inning gem in his last with 1 run allowed against the Atlanta Braves Sunday.

RHP J.T. Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 4-10 with a 4.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 across 96 1/3 IP over 18 starts.

Brubaker allowed 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk while punching out 6 over 4 IP in a loss to the San Francisco Giants Sunday. He yielded 3.6 HR/9 while notching a 7.30 ERA over his last five starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Phillies at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:03 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100) |  Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies went into this series off of an eight-game homestand, over which they logged a .790 OPS.

Pittsburgh won Friday’s opener 7-0 but is just 10-17 over its last 27 games.

Philadelphia has benefited from a 19-14 record in 1-run games, and the Phils’ 4.48 runs per game and 4.77 runs per game allowed doesn’t support a 51-52 mark.

The struggling Brubaker and Pirates bullpen combo makes for some risk, but Nola coming off a 116-pitch effort is in a beatable spot. The veteran hurler’s next-time-outs on high pitch counts are dotted with several disasters.

BACK THE PIRATES (+140).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The price here is competitive. Bet the PIRATES +1.5 (-120) with 1 run of insurance in the event of a loss.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS. Tip of the cap to the betting public on this number.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (50-55) and Washington Nationals (48-55) continue their three-game set at Nationals Park Saturday with the second game’s first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington beat Chicago in the series opener Friday, 4-3, as Nationals starting RHP Paolo Espino allowed just 1 earned run over 5 1/3 innings of work and Washington’s bullpen held off the Cubs late-inning rally.

Season series: Cubs lead 3-2.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is Chicago’s projected starter. Hendricks is 12-4 with a 3.85 ERA (121 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 21 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 6-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds Monday.
  • 2021 road splits: 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA (62 IP, 23 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.4 K/BB over 10 starts.

RHP Joe Ross makes his 18th start for the Nationals. Ross is 5-8 with a 3.80 ERA (92 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Washington’s 6-5 loss at the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
  • Ross took a loss at the Cubs May 20 with a stat line of 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Washington’s 5-2 defeat.
  • 2021 home splits: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 5.5 K/BB in seven starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cubs at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+165) | Nationals +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cubs 7, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

Ehh, ya know? Saturday’s Cubs-Nationals game is akin to an NBA Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons game in the middle of April. Both teams offloaded a ton of talent at the trade deadline and are in rebuild mode.

That being said, Hendricks is the differentiator in this matchup and provides value for the CUBS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS. Despite it being a lost year in Chicago, Hendricks is still a “top of the rotation” guy who figures to be part of the Cubs’ future.

Also, Ross has been awful at home and he has a .798 opponent’s OPS in Washington compared to a .624 opponent’s OPS on the road.

However, I’m sticking with the CUBS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS because Chicago traded away its three best bullpen arms at the trade deadline and the Cubs relievers have the fifth-worst FIP following the All-Star Break.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS -1.5 (+165) for a tiny wager because it’s a chunky payout, Hendricks is that much better than Ross and Washington’s bullpen is even worse than Chicago’s thus far in the second half.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 8 (-105) for 1 unit because there’s been a “sharp line move” towards the Over as the total opened at 7.5 before it was steamed up to the current number.

As alluded to before, Washington’s bullpen has the highest FIP and home run per nine-inning rate following the All-Star Break with the lowest left-on-base percentage.

The Nationals also parted ways with two of their best bullpen arms at the trade deadline in former closer Brad Hand and reliever Daniel Hudson.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago White Sox (61-43) host the Cleveland Indians (50-50) in the second game of their three-game set Saturday at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Indians vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago won the series opener Friday, 6-4, with its standout performance coming from White Sox 3B Yoan Moncada who hit 3-for-5 with 1 home run, 1 RBI and 2 runs scored.

Season series: Tied 6-6.

RHP Triston McKenzie is Cleveland’s projected starter. McKenzie is 1-4 with a 5.61 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 13 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Cleveland’s 3-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays Sunday.
  • McKenzie is 0-1 with a 10.32 ERA against the White Sox this year (11 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 7 H, 8 BB and 22 K in three starts.
  • vs. White Sox on the current roster (25 PA): 3.20 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .320 wOBA, .341 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 44.0 K% and 84.9 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the White Sox. Keuchel is 7-4 with a 4.32 ERA (108 1/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 19 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with a 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Kansas City Royals Monday.
  • Keuchel is 0-1 against Cleveland this season with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 7 H, 6 BB and 6 K in two starts.
  • vs. Indians on the current roster (69 PA): 2.67 FIP with a .281 BA, .305 wOBA, .352 xSLG, 14.5 K% and 87.2 mph EV.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Indians at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:57 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Indians +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | White Sox -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-150) | White Sox -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

White Sox 9, Indians 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the WHITE SOX (-155) only because there’s been heavy “reverse line movement” in favor of the Indians (+125) as Chicago opened as roughly -180 money line favorites and are getting a majority of the action.

However, McKenzie has gotten smoked in his three starts against Chicago, the White Sox have the highest home winning percentage in the majors (36-17 overall record) and Cleveland is free-falling out of playoff contention.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since Keuchel isn’t a starting pitcher I’d like to back on the full-game or First 5 Innings run line and Cleveland is 20-11 ATS as a road underdog.

Both bullpens are top-tier units and I don’t have enough faith in the White Sox’s lineup covering the run line if they don’t rake McKenzie.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-110) for a half unit because these teams have a combined 18-14 O/U record when these starters get the nod, Cleveland is 24-16-3 O/U vs. AL Central foes and the Over has cashed in six of the last eight Indians-White Sox meetings.

That being said, the Over 9 (-110) is a fairly obvious play and the presumed “sharp” side of the markets is backing the Under while your “average Joe” is betting the Over according to Pregame.com.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

After splitting the first two games of their series, the Colorado Rockies (45-59) and San Diego Padres (60-46) play the third game of their four-game series Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rockies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP German Marquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies. He is 8-8 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 through 124 2/3 IP spanning 21 starts.

Marquez took the loss in each of his last two starts while allowing a total of 7 earned runs. He pitched seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 Rockies win over the Padres July 10.

RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 115 2/3 IP spanning 20 starts.

This will be his fourth start of the year against the Rockies. He is 1-0 against them with an ERA of 2.25 over 16 innings. He has struggled more of late, losing three straight decisions and posting an ERA of 7.32 over his last four starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Rockies at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rockies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rockies +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 5, Rockies 4

Money line (ML)

The Rockies picked up their 12th road win of the year Friday but they still have the worst road record in the league. They have, though, won three of their last five games against the Padres in San Diego.

They took two of three in San Diego just before the All-Star break in the only road series this season in which Colorado won more than one game.

Only the Chicago White Sox have more home wins than the Padres’ 35 this season. They are 5-6 over their last 11 homes games but Darvish has a 2021 home ERA of 2.79.

Take the PADRES (-200).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Rockies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games, although they are 22-29 ATS on the road this season.

The Padres are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games and 27-29 ATS at home. Three of the last four wins for the Padres with Darvish on the mound were by one run.

I like the Padres to win, but like Colorado for the cover. Take the ROCKIES +1.5 (-135).

Over/Under (O/U)

The projected total for tonight is low, especially considering the recent struggles of the two starting pitchers. That said, four of the last five games between the Rockies and Padres finished with totals under seven runs.

Four of the Rockies’ last five games and 10 of their last 13 finished with more than 7 total runs.

Four of the last five for the Padres had a total of 7 or more runs.

Take OVER 7 (-115).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Texas Rangers (36-67) host the Seattle Mariners (56-48) at Globe Life Field Saturday for the second game of a three-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle beat Texas in the series opener Friday, 9-5, as Mariners rookie CF Jarred Kelenic batted 2-for-5 with 1 home run and 4 RBIs.

Season series: Mariners lead 8-3.

LHP Tyler Anderson is Seattle’s projected starter. Anderson is 5-8 with a 4.35 ERA (103 1/3 IP, 50 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 18 starts.

  • The Mariners picked up Anderson via a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates July 27 in exchange for a couple of minor league prospects.
  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K in an 11-6 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks July 20.

LHP Taylor Hearn is on the mound for the Rangers. Hearn is 2-3 with a 4.41 ERA (49 IP, 24 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 over two starts and 29 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Texas’s 3-1 loss at the Houston Astros Sunday.
  • 2021 home splits: 1-1 with a 4.43 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.57 WHIP and 1.7 K/BB in one start and 13 bullpen outings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Mariners at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:31 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Rangers +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners -1.5 (+120) | Rangers +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Mariners 8, Rangers 3

Money line (ML)

Simply put, Seattle’s implied win probability based on the MARINERS (-135) price is 57.14% and Seattle wins this game two-thirds of the time.

Even though Anderson is a “bottom of the rotation” type starter he’s got to be jacked up to be moved from the dumpster fire that is Pittsburgh’s organization to a Seattle squad that’s in the thick of the AL Wild Card hunt.

Furthermore, Hearn will be used Saturday as an “opener” for Texas’s bullpen day as a replacement for now-former starting RHP Kyle Gibson who was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies Friday.

Not only does no Gibson hurt the Rangers’ chances today but Hearn will be turning this game over in the early innings to a struggling Texas bullpen.

For instance, the Rangers relievers have the seventh-worst SIERA, sixth-worst xFIP and the 24th-ranked K-BB% since the All-Star Game.

Speaking of “struggling”, Texas’s lineup is by far the least productive unit thus far in the second half of the season.

The Rangers’ 45 wRC+ ranks dead-last and the next closest team is the Colorado Rockies with an 83 wRC+ following the All-Star Break.

BET 1 unit on the MARINERS (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS -1.5 (+120) for a tiny wager – if at all – because the Rangers have been getting crushed over the past 20 games. Texas has lost 17 of the last 20 games and 16 of those losses have been by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-115) for a half unit since there’s been “sharp” line movement on the total and the Over has cashed in five straight Mariners-Rangers meetings in Texas.

This game opened with an 8-run total before the market steamed it up to the current price and the Over 8.5 (-115) is juiced, which suggests there’s still money coming in on the Over.

Also, these division foes have a combined 47-37-1 O/U record in games against fellow AL West competition.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (52-51) host the Minnesota Twins (43-61) Saturday for the second game of their three-game interleague set at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis took the first game of the series Friday, 5-1, as the Cardinals lineup raked Minnesota’s bullpen for 4 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk with just 3 strikeouts in 3 innings of work.

Season series: Cardinals lead 1-0.

RHP Bailey Ober gets the nod for the Twins. Ober is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across 10 starts in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Minnesota’s 6-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels Sunday.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-1 with a 4.96 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 15 H, 3 BB and 17 K in four starts.

RHP Jake Woodford is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Woodford is 2-2 with a 4.25 ERA (36 IP, 17 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 over two starts and 17 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 2 K at the Cincinnati Reds July 24.
  • 2021 home splits: 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA (14 IP, 5 ER), 13 H, 7 BB and 12 K in one start and six relief appearances.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Twins at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cardinals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-180) | Cardinals -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Twins 6, Cardinals 5

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the TWINS (+105) because I see some value in Minnesota’s First 5 Innings run line and think the Twins can steal this game against St. Louis’s awful bullpen if need be.

For instance, Woodford just got moved into the starting rotation earlier this month and the Cardinals relievers rank dead-last in the majors in K-BB%, SIERA and xFIP.

Also, we have a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market according to pregame.com with more than half of the cash on Minnesota but over 80% of the public backing St. Louis.

Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the TWINS +0.5 (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS because it’s an awesome price for a half run worth of insurance in a starting pitching matchup that’s essentially a draw.

Furthermore, Minnesota’s lineup ranks 11th or better in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-contact rate while St. Louis’s lineup is 20th or worse in each of those metrics.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” for the OVER 8.5 (-115) as a “contrarian play” against a market that has steamed this total down from the 9-run opener and because I have no faith in either pitching staff.

In addition, Minnesota is 15-7-1 O/U as a road underdog with an MLB-high plus-2.4 total margin and these teams have a combined 30-25-2 O/U record in interleague play since the beginning of last season.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (36-66) and Detroit Tigers (50-56) continue a four-game series Saturday at 6:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Comerica Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP John Means is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. He is 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 through 82 2/3 IP spanning 14 starts.

Means missed time in June-July due to a shoulder injury. He has struggled in two turns since returning July 20 with 9 ER over 11 2/3 IP.

RHP Matt Manning is the projected starter for the Tigers. He is 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 4.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 over 33 IP spanning 7 starts.

Manning is a rookie with pitch-to-contact stuff. He has been undone by a 58.0% left-on-base rate. Manning owns 4.34 ERA over four outings in July.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Orioles at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Tigers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Orioles -1.5 (+150) | Tigers +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Orioles 6, Tigers 4

Money line (ML)

The Orioles and Tigers split the first two games of this series.

The Orioles are the lean in a vacuum Saturday, but it’d be wise to let this one PASS without a play due to the uncertainty around Means.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The best side in this matchup — due to the analysis that these teams are more equal than what shows in their records and because of a solid price — is BALTIMORE -1.5 (+150).

The conviction behind this play is thin, so consider a partial-unit wager.

Over/Under (O/U)

Consider the OVER 9.5 (+100). The Baltimore offense looks to have more potential for scoring. The starters are question marks, and the bullpens — both fatigued — are worse.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (63-42) meet the Tampa Bay Rays (62-42) Saturday for the second game of their three-game set at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa Bay won Friday’s series opener 7-3 as the Rays chased Red Sox LHP Martin Perez after just 4 innings, by scoring 6 earned runs on 7 hits, 1 walk and 3 home runs with only 3 strikeouts.

Season series: Red Sox lead 4-3.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi is Boston’s projected starter. Eovaldi is 9-5 with a 3.49 ERA (116 IP, 45 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 20 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 8 K in Boston’d 4-3 loss to the New York Yankees July 24.
  • Eovaldi beat Tampa Bay April 7 with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 3H, 3 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 9-2 victory.
    • vs. Rays on the current roster (98 PA): 4.54 FIP with a .295 batting average (BA), .390 expected wOBA, .491 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 23.5 K% and 88.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Ryan Yarbrough takes the hill for the Rays. He is 6-4 with a 4.38 ERA (109 IP, 53 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 15 starts and five relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Tampa Bay’s 3-2 loss at the Cleveland Indians Sunday.
  • Yarbrough lost to the Red Sox April 7 with 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
    • vs. Red Sox on the current roster (119 PA): 7.23 FIP with a .407 BA, .436 expected wOBA, .630 xSLG, 14.3 K% and 88.5 mph EV.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+155) | Rays +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Red Sox 7, Rays 5

Money line (ML)

While “pitcher vs. batter” head-to-head splits aren’t the end-all of daily MLB handicapping, it’s hard to overlook how bad Yarbrough’s pitching peripherals are against active Boston batters in a large sample size.

Slight “LEAN” to the RED SOX (+100) for a tiny wager because I much prefer the Over in this contest and Boston lost five of its last seven visits to Tampa.

Also, we are seeing “reverse line movement” as 85% of the cash wagered has been on Boston but the line is moving toward Tampa Bay, according to Pregame.com. It’s always a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper so tread carefully.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since I don’t “like” Boston enough on the money line to lay it with the Red Sox -1.5 (+155). Furthermore, Boston is just 7-14 ATS as a road favorite and Tampa Bay is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-110) for a half unit because the Over cashed in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings and the Rays are 10-5 O/U when Yarbrough gets the start.

However, we are also seeing “reverse line movement” as a vast majority of the market is betting the Over but the Under is becoming more expensive.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (64-39) host the Houston Astros (64-40) Saturday for the second game of their three-game interleague set at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Astros won the first game of the series 9-6 as 2B Jose Altuve went 3-for-6 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs. Also, Houston’s lineup nuked San Francisco’s bullpen by plating 6 runs across 4 innings of work.

Season series: Astros lead 1-0.

RHP Zack Greinke makes his 22nd start for the Astros. He is 10-3 with a 3.48 ERA (126 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 4 K Sunday against the Texas Rangers.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster (177 PA): 2.02 FIP with a .212 batting average (BA), .240 wOBA, .289 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.6 K% and 86.3 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Alex Wood is San Francisco’s projected starter. He is 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA (93 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 17 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Astros at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Giants -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-200) | Giants -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Astros 7, Giants 3

Money line (ML)

Let’s go with the hot hand and BET an ASTROS (+100) team that’s won eight of their last 10 games.

Since the All-Star Game, Houston’s lineup is 10th or better in wRC+, wOBA and WAR while San Francisco’s lineup ranks 19th or worse in each of those categories.

Also, Greinke has been more effective on the road this season and has always pitched well at San Francisco’s home ballpark. Greinke is 5-0 on the road with a 2.25 ERA (60 IP, 15 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB through nine starts.

For his career, Greinke is 6-0 with a 1.19 ERA (53 IP, 7 ER), 0.89 WHIP and 5.4 K/BB in eight starts at San Francisco’s ballpark.

TAKE the ASTROS (+100) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ASTROS -1.5 (+165) on the alternate line for a tiny wager, if at all, because Houston has clear edges in the starting pitching and hitting matchups and San Francisco’s bullpen is taxed from throwing a lot of pitches recently.

However, the Giants covered the spread in eight of their 12 games as home underdogs this season and the Astros bullpen has been the weakest facet of Houston’s game throughout the season.

The best play in this game is to stick with the Astros (+100) on the money line, but Houston is clearly the right side so I don’t hate SPRINKLING on ASTROS -1.5 (+165).

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Over 8.5 (-105) as a “contrarian play” against a majority of the market that’s taking the Under. Since that’s my only handicapping angle I’ll stay away from the total in Astros-Giants.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Oakland Athletics (59-46) and Los Angeles Angels (51-52) continue a four-game AL West set Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Athletics vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Cole Irvin is the projected starting pitcher for the Athletics. He is 7-9 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 through 117 IP over 20 starts.

Irvin’s post-All-Star break work has included one strong start and one shaky one. The clunker came in his last start when he allowed 4 ER over 4 IP at the Seattle Mariners Sunday. He owns a 2.61 ERA over his last 31 IP.

RHP Jaime Barria is the projected starter for the Angels. Through three games (one start), he is 1-0 with 9 ER on 11 H and 7 BB with 5 K across 13 IP.

Barria was effective across 95 pitches against the Minnesota Twins Sunday. Current Oakland batters own a .678 OPS against him. Barria owns a 4.55 career ERA over 257 1/3 IP.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Athletics at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Athletics -135 (bet $135 to win $100) |  Angels +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+115) | Angels +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Angels 6, Athletics 5

Money line (ML)

Oakland won the first two games of this series via shutout and has won three in a row overall. That comes on the heels of the Athletics going just 3-6 over their previous nine games.

The Halos came into this series on a 5-2 run, but they’ve been held to just 10 hits while being blanked twice in this set.

Barria has a 3.04 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 56 1/3 IP at home over the last three years and there is some recent success that figures as unearned for the Oakland bullpen.

Back the ANGELS (+110).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. And peg this line as being too cumbersome to get past.

Over/Under (O/U)

The top play in this one is the OVER 10 (-110). Irvin is a fly-ball pitcher who has been fortunate to hold home runs on fly balls to a mere 7.0% rate. Barria is also a fly-ball pitcher and this matinee in Anaheim has a forecast of a decent breeze helping fly balls out to right-center field.

L.A.’s recent offensive woes are very much due to iffy performances with runners in scoring position (0-for-10 in the series). Look for some double-digit offense in Saturday’s contest.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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