Tag: Phillies Pirates odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) begin a 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (45-57) on Friday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies were 6-1 vs. the Pirates in 2022

The Phillies defeated the Baltimore Orioles 6-4 on Wednesday to give them 2 consecutive wins. Philadelphia is 10 games behind the Atlanta Braves for 1st place in the NL East, but is currently 1 of the 3 NL Wild-Card teams.

The Pirates beat the San Diego Padres 3-2 on Wednesday. Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses in its last week and it sits in last place in the NL Central.

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Phillies at Pirates projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Mitch Keller

Wheeler (7-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 118 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 1-0 road loss to the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday
  • 2023 road stats: 5-3 in 10 starts with a 3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 58 IP
  • Career stats vs. Pirates: 3-0 in 5 starts with a 2.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP

Keller (9-6, 4.01 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 128 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 7-5 road loss against the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday
  • 2023 home stats: 5-2 in 9 starts with a 3.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 57 1/3 IP
  • Career vs. Phillies: 0-2 in 3 starts with a 7.80 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9 in 15 IP

Phillies at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:22 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Pirates +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+105) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Pirates 3

Moneyline

With these teams having different outlooks on the playoffs, I’ll side with the PHILLIES (-160) on the road Friday. Philadelphia has won 27 of its last 42 games, and it has won 8 of the last 10 meetings overall.

Run line/Against the spread

PHILLIES -1.5 (+105) has solid value as the Pirates are looking to be sellers at the trade deadline. The Pirates have lost by multiple runs in 8 consecutive losses and Keller has struggled in recent starts.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean. Wheeler shouldn’t have much trouble shutting down a Pirates squad that owns the 4th-worst wOBA (.286) and wRC+ (77) against right-handed pitching since the start of July.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (54-47) and Pittsburgh Pirates (40-61) meet Sunday at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out a 4-game series at PNC Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 3-0

The Phillies have a chance for a 4-game sweep and their 5th straight win. Philadelphia has triumphed in extra innings the last 2 nights. The Phils allowed just 2 runs Friday and 1 run Saturday and they own a 1.77 ERA, 0.80 WHIP in their last 6 road games.

The Pirates tote a 6-game losing streak into Sunday’s affair at PNC. Pittsburgh has batted all of .177/.243/.300 (.544 OPS) during the skid. The Bucs own a paltry .567 OPS since July 12.

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Phillies at Pirates projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP J.T. Brubaker

Nola (6-8, 3.32 ERA) owns a 0.93 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 132 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Has, in a small sample size, held current Pittsburgh batters to an aggregate .600 OPS.
  • Has been barreled up more frequently in logging a 4.25 EREA since June 30. But has also been undone by an unfortunate left-on-base rate (65.5% over that same span).

Brubaker (2-8, 3.96 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 100 IP.

  • Making his first PNC start since June 30.
  • Has a 3.00 ERA in his last 6 starts.

Phillies at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Pirates +155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-105) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Phillies at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Phillies 3

Money line

The Phillies went into this series with some betting upside and have been a baked-in lean throughout. But STEER CLEAR of any favorites price north of -180 for this one.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Pirates offense is in a bad place. The Phillies have the deeper bullpen and the starter more likely to give them 6 innings on a save-the-pen day.

BACK THE PHILLIES -1.5 (-105).

Over/Under

Both starters have yielded more frequent hard contact of late. Both bullpens are in the fatigue zone after back-to-back extra-inning contests.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (+105).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (52-47) and Pittsburgh Pirates (40-59) meet Friday to continue a 4-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 1-0 after an 8-7 win in Thursday’s series opener.

The Phillies are 3-1 over their last 4 games. Philadelphia hurlers own a 3.22 ERA in their last 16 road games.

The Pirates have lost 4 in a row and 9 of their last 11. Over that latter stretch, Pittsburgh has logged a mere .589 OPS at the plate. The club’s 3.62 runs-per-game average ranks 28th in MLB.

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Phillies at Pirates projected starters

LHP Bailey Falter vs. LHP Jose Quintana

Falter (0-3, 5.18 ERA) owns a 1.45 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 33 IP in 10 games (6 starts).

  • Allowed 3 HR in his last start and has a 6.00 ERA in his last 21 IP.
  • Has a 1.56 ERA, 0.63 WHIP in 7 minor league starts in 2022.

Quintana (3-5, 3.70 ERA) is making his 20th start of the season. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 97 1/3 IP.

  • Tossed 7 shutout innings against the Miami Marlins Saturday with 4 H, 0 BB and  4 K.
  • Owns a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 home starts and a 2.65 ERA at home for the season.

Phillies at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:31 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Pirates +102 (bet $102 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+130) | Pirates +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Pirates 3

Money line

At 4.67 runs per game and 4.17 runs allowed, the Phils have underplayed their scoring advantage. An 11-16 record in 1-run games has not helped.

The left-lefty matchup is an advantage for Philadelphia, which owns a .756 OPS vs. port-siders (9th MLB).

Falter is a 25-year-old 2nd-year player. His Major League ERA is 5.40. His Triple-A ERA is 1.65.

TAKE THE PHILLIES (-125).

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Run line/Against the spread

Pittsburgh’s offense had been reeling before Thursday’s game.

Philadelphia’s bullpen has been improved of late (3.48 ERA in July); Pittsburgh’s relief numbers have been trending the other way.

Consider a split wager: Half on the ML and half on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+130).

Over/Under

The Under is a slight — but non-actionable — lean. AVOID.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (51-47) and Pittsburgh Pirates (40-58) open a 4-game set at PNC Park Thursday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: first meeting. Philadelphia won the season series 4-3 in 2021.

The Phillies are 2-4 in the 2nd half but are coming off taking 2-of-3 games from the Atlanta Braves to start the week. Philadelphia is 7-4 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over its last 11 road games.

The Pirates were swept in a 2-game set at Wrigley Field Monday-Tuesday to fall to 1-6 over their last 7 road games. Pittsburgh is just 2-8 with a .559 OPS over its last 10 games overall.

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Phillies at Pirates projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Zach Thompson

Wheeler (8-5, 2.78 ERA) owns a 1.04 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 106 2/3 IP across 18 starts.

  • Was sharp in his first start of the second half with 1 ER on 3 H across 7 IP against the Chicago Cubs Saturday.
  • Facing a Pittsburgh club that logs more lefty at-bats than most clubs. Wheeler has held left-handed bats under a .600 OPS each of the last 2 seasons.

Thompson (3-7, 4.64 ERA) owns a 1.44 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 75 2/3 IP across 16 starts and 1 bullpen appearance.

  • Struggled in his 1st start of the 2nd half with 7 ER on 9 H over 5 1/3 IP vs. the Miami Marlins Friday but had logged a 2.75 ERA over 7 starts prior.
  • Has held foes to 2 ER or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts.
  • Averages 76 pitches per start.

Phillies at Pirates odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Pirates +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-115) | Pirates +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Phillies at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Pirates 2

Money line

The Wheeler-led favorite Phillies are worth a play perhaps at -190 or better.

PASS otherwise.

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Run line/Against the spread

Consider a partial-unit play on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-115). Pittsburgh’s offense has been reeling.

The Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 series openers and they’ve tended to play in fewer 1-run games than most clubs.

Over/Under

With the pitching matchup being solid and both offenses having recent struggles of late — and with the Pittsburgh bullpen being mostly reset with an off day — the UNDER 7.5 (+100) is a LEAN.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (51-52) and Pittsburgh Pirates (39-64) tangle in the second game of a three-game series Saturday at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 7-6 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 115 1/3 IP spanning 20 starts.

The veteran right-hander has been shaky on the road with a 5.52 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 58 2/3 IP. He posted a 7.99 ERA across five starts from June 19-July 20 but then came out and tossed an 8 2/3 inning gem in his last with 1 run allowed against the Atlanta Braves Sunday.

RHP J.T. Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 4-10 with a 4.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 across 96 1/3 IP over 18 starts.

Brubaker allowed 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk while punching out 6 over 4 IP in a loss to the San Francisco Giants Sunday. He yielded 3.6 HR/9 while notching a 7.30 ERA over his last five starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Phillies at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:03 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100) |  Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies went into this series off of an eight-game homestand, over which they logged a .790 OPS.

Pittsburgh won Friday’s opener 7-0 but is just 10-17 over its last 27 games.

Philadelphia has benefited from a 19-14 record in 1-run games, and the Phils’ 4.48 runs per game and 4.77 runs per game allowed doesn’t support a 51-52 mark.

The struggling Brubaker and Pirates bullpen combo makes for some risk, but Nola coming off a 116-pitch effort is in a beatable spot. The veteran hurler’s next-time-outs on high pitch counts are dotted with several disasters.

BACK THE PIRATES (+140).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The price here is competitive. Bet the PIRATES +1.5 (-120) with 1 run of insurance in the event of a loss.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS. Tip of the cap to the betting public on this number.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (51-51) and Pittsburgh Pirates (38-64) open a three-game series Friday at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. In 20 games (16 starts) this season, he is 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 across 79 2/3 IP.

The veteran right-hander is coming off a dreadful outing that saw him allow 6 ER in 2 1/3 IP against the Atlanta Braves Saturday. Velasquez allowed 2 home runs in that start and has coughed up 7 HR over his last 15 2/3 IP (10.91 ERA, 2.04 WHIP over that stretch).

RHP Wil Crowe is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 2-5 with a 5.89 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 through 65 2/3 IP spanning 15 games (14 starts).

Crowe held the San Francisco Giants to just 2 ER over 5 1/3 IP Saturday. The 26-year-old fanned a season-high 9 batters in that game. He has given the Pirates similar outings — 2 runs allowed in nearly 5 innings — in five of his last seven starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Phillies at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100) |  Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Pirates 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies head into this series off of an eight-game homestand. They logged a .790 OPS over that span.

Pittsburgh lost four straight games and is just 9-17 since June 28. The Pirates were shut out in two of their last four losses and scored just 4 total runs in the other two.

Philadelphia is 2-9 over its last 11 series openers on the road. The Bucs bullpen has sputtered of late but give Crowe enough of an edge in the early innings to make the PIRATES (+120) a workable play.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The price here is competitive. Bettors preferring more of an equalizer when betting a bottom-five club should consider the PIRATES +1.5 (-135).

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS. There is a slight fade the Phillies offense lean adding to both starters being better than their surface ERAs. The pricing wipes out any value.

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