Minnesota Golden Gophers – Page 53

Week 14 CFP Eliminator: Goodbye Bama

For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, the Alabama Crimson Tide have been eliminated from CFP contention.

Welcome back to the Eliminator. I explain the process behind eliminating teams in my Week 1 post. In short, I ask myself a simple question: “If this team wins out, will they have a chance at the Playoff?” I don’t assume that teams will lose–there’s no need to. The losses will come when they come; and when they do, I’ll eliminate those teams. Until then, they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple. I also track every eliminated team on this Twitter thread.

This week was a historic moment in College Football Playoff Eliminator history. I have been writing or tweeting an Eliminator since the CFP began in 2014, and I have never before been able to tweet that Alabama was eliminated. Well, that changed this week. With two losses and no good wins at all, Alabama is out.

Even though there is a chance at chaos and a weak bubble, Alabama’s resume is just too weak. I haven’t eliminated Oregon and Wisconsin yet, even though there’s no real path for those two. The question is what happens if Clemson loses to Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. Would the committee take an 11-2 Oregon team with a mediocre schedule and two ranked wins over a 12-1 Clemson team with no ranked wins? Almost certainly not. Would the committee take an 11-2 Wisconsin team with a strong schedule and three ranked wins (including one over Ohio State) over a 12-1 Clemson team? Probably not, but maybe.

What I know for sure, though, is that the committee would take a 12-1 Clemson team with no resume over an 11-2 Alabama team with no resume. Add to that that the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 champions are guaranteed to finish ahead of Alabama (as are Ohio State and LSU, even with losses this week), and Alabama is done. No path remains to the No. 4 slot. Thus, for the first time in College Football Playoff history, Alabama is eliminated.

Next … What teams are still alive?

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HAIL, CAESAR! Williams, Wisconsin secondary shine vs. Minnesota

Reflections on the play of the secondary in the Wisconsin Badgers’ huge win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

If a picture was worth 1,000 words, look at the cover photo for this story. Look at Caesar Williams knocking the ball away from Tyler Johnson, in one of the one-on-one matchups the Wisconsin Badgers needed to win in order to beat the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Look at the confidence Williams displayed here. Look at the authoritative demonstration of textbook coverage.

The picture told the story of a Wisconsin secondary which did a complete 180 from previous weeks against Nebraska and Purdue. The picture told the story of a banged-up back line of defense which had valid reasons for uneven play and a spotty track record in the second half of the 2019 season, but regrouped and played its best football when everything mattered. We said all week here at Badgers Wire that if Wisconsin delivered the goods against the Gophers, the previous several weeks of relatively ordinary football would be forgotten. The Badgers played as though that was the absolute truth. As a result, they are going to Indianapolis. They will get their coveted rematch with Ohio State. They won back the Big Ten West title they lost in 2018. This team will be remembered fondly, no matter what happens next.

Hail, Caesar. Hail to Caesar Williams, Faion Hicks, and other members of a secondary which was asked to do a lot… and did more than it was asked. WAY more. If you had talked to Wisconsin fans before this game, and you had said that Minnesota would score 24 points against the Badgers, most UW fans probably would have said, “Hey, not bad. That gives us a chance to win.”

The final score says Wisconsin gave up 17 points, but if we’re being honest, it’s only 10. The Gophers scored a meaningless touchdown late in garbage time. Throw that one out if we are trying to accurately measure what this defense and this secondary achieved. When Minnesota was trying to come back, down 24-10 and inside the Badgers’ red zone, Wisconsin’s corners held up in man coverage on an island yet again. They had done that all day, staying strong and contesting catches on the perimeter when Tanner Morgan threw jump balls and asked his receivers to win them at the catch point. Williams, Hicks, and the rest of this secondary — under so much game pressure, on a day when their teammates needed them to dramatically improve — were golden against the Gophers.

This was a magnificent display. Jack Coan brought his A-game. Jim Leonhard brought his A-game. The front seven brought their A-game. So many Badgers, wearing shoulder pads or headsets, were at their best on Saturday. Yet, the position group under the most fire was the secondary. This is where Minnesota figured it could separate itself from Wisconsin. The Badgers’ secondary stuck to the Gophers and prevented that separation from happening.

Hail, Caesar, and the rest of a secondary which forged its finest hour of 2019.

Paul Chryst and Jim Leonhard answer the call vs. Minnesota

Wow. Even the most optimistic fan of the Wisconsin Badgers probably wasn’t expecting THAT. A blowout win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers completely changes the way this 2019 season will be remembered. It also validates the belief that after the rough two-week stretch in Champaign and Columbus against Illinois and Ohio State, this team wasn’t quite ready to run through a brick wall with fire coming out of its ears.

The Badgers were just trying to survive their first few games of November. They were waiting for the Gophers. They were waiting to not only ruin Minnesota’s year, but make their own big statement for UW and win a Big Ten West title. They could not have spoken more loudly or eloquently. Now they are going back to Indianapolis, in prime time, just as they did in 2017. No, they’re not playing for a playoff berth — unlike 2017 — but they are playing Ohio State for the Big Ten title.

It is where Wisconsin wants to be. It is where Wisconsin expects to be. The coaches who lived with the inconsistencies of the past several weeks had a responsibility to get this team to play well in the one game which mattered more than any other in 2019. Paul Chryst and Jim Leonhard answered the call. They thoroughly outcoached P.J. Fleck and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, serving as catalysts for this thumping of the Gophers, with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit in attendance as part of ABC’s announcing crew.

Chryst was a little tentative early on, but as soon as Minnesota offensive lineman Daniel Faalele got injured — and as soon as Fleck weirdly punted on fourth and two inside the Wisconsin 36 in the first quarter — the Badgers took over this game. The players — especially the defense, which maxed out — deserve the credit, but the coaches get credit for having the players ready to play.

They had Caesar Williams and Faion Hicks ready to defend Minnesota’s wide receivers, Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman. They had the front seven ready to fill gaps and find lanes to the quarterback. Leonhard successfully rattled Tanner Morgan and took away the time the Gophers’ quarterback needs to execute Minnesota’s passing game. The Badgers forced the Gophers to throw outside the numbers. Minnesota wasn’t able to exploit the area between the hashmarks, where the Gophers normally do most of their damage through the air.

While Leonhard won the battle with fellow Broyles Award semifinalist Kirk Ciarrocca, Chryst and his offensive staff outflanked Minnesota’s defense. They got Jonathan Taylor involved in the passing game. They used end-arounds to keep Minnesota off-balance and uncertain. Chryst ordered a misdirection handoff on a kick return which gained big yardage and played a part in the Badgers maintaining the upper hand in the second half.

Chryst and Leonhard were both clever without being imprudent, aggressive without breaking Wisconsin’s identity. The Badgers were physical but not conservative, balanced but not predictable. Chryst and his offensive coaches got the best out of Jack Coan on an afternoon when the Badgers needed No. 17 to flourish. Every challenge facing this coaching staff was a challenge the staff answered.

Take a bow, Paul and Jim — and all the other assistants, while we’re at it — before preparing for Ohio State in Indianapolis. If Wisconsin’s coaches deserved heat in recent weeks, they definitely deserve ample credit after this masterpiece in Minneapolis.

College GameDay: Lee Corso’s headgear pick for Wisconsin-Minnesota

Lee Corso picks Minnesota to upset Wisconsin to move on to the Big Ten title game.

No. 12 Wisconsin and No. 8 Minnesota meet in frigid Minneapolis on Saturday for the right to face No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, and College GameDay visited the University of Minnesota campus for the first time to celebrate the occasion.

Minnesota is a three-point underdog at home, but every GameDay panelist picked the Golden Gophers to win a second consecutive game against the Badgers.

https://twitter.com/CollegeGameDay/status/1200823577005699075

Lee Corso also picked Indiana over Purdue, Florida over Florida State, Kentucky over Louisville, Oregon over Oregon State, Utah over Colorado, Iowa State over Kansas State, Oklahoma over Oklahoma State, LSU over Texas A&M, Alabama over Auburn and Ohio State over Michigan.

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College GameDay: The best signs from Wisconsin-Minnesota

See the funniest signs from Minnesota.

College GameDay visited Minnesota for the first time on Saturday, and a gigantic crowd braved the frigid temperatures before the No. 8 Golden Gophers face off against the No. 12 Badgers for the right to face Ohio State in the Big Ten title game next weekend. Here are the best signs from Saturday’s show:

8. GameDay is now elite

7. Lee Corso for president

6. Bucky is still ugly with a snapchat filter

5. I am lactose intolerant

4. Ponds are not lakes

3. W is just an upside down M

2. Badgers eat yellow snow

1. Never been this good, don’t know what to write

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Wisconsin at Minnesota odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers sports betting odds and lines, with college football betting picks.

The Wisconsin Badgers (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten West) will do battle with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-1, 7-1 West) Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Not only with one of the best college football trophies (Paul Bunyan’s Axe) on the line, but this season’s game is even more meaningful with a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game up for grabs. We analyze the Wisconsin-Minnesota odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Wisconsin at Minnesota: Three things you need to know

1. The Badgers limp into this game with a 1-4 against the spread mark across the past five games, although they’re an impressive 15-6 ATS in the past 21 on the road and 8-3 ATS in the past 11 away games against a team with a winning home mark.

2. The Golden Gophers have covered seven of the past eight overall while going 4-0 ATS in their past four home outings and 8-1 ATS in the past nine conference tilts.

3. Wisconsin ranks 14th in the nation with 251.2 rushing yards per game while ranking seventh in total yards allowed (270.3), sixth in passing yards allowed (169.9) and 10th in rushing yards allowed (100.4). Its 14.4 PPG allowed ranks eighth.

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Wisconsin at Minnesota: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Ohio State 37, Michigan 27

Moneyline (ML)

WISCONSIN (-154) will go into the Twin Cities and grab the axe with a win. The Badgers have a strong running back with RB Jonathan Taylor, who will be able to control the game. Minnesota (+125) has a bevy of quality backs as well; however, the Gophers haven’t faced a suffocating defense like Wisconsin possesses.

New to sports betting? Every $1 wagered for Wisconsin to win outright will return a profit of $6.50.

Against the Spread (ATS)

WISCONSIN (-2.5, -128) has the road trends in its favor, as the visitor is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Minnesota (+2.5, +105) is catching points at home, though, and the underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in the previous 12 in this series. I think Taylor is the difference in this one, and he rips off a special game for the Badgers.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 45.5 (-110) is usually the way to go here, hitting in 15 of the past 19 battles in this series. The Over is also 4-1 in Minny’s past five overall. For Wisconsin, the Under has hit in five of the past seven on the road, but the Over is 4-1 in the past five games in November.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Wisconsin-Minnesota preview: game management plays a key role

Some thoughts on how PJ Fleck of the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Paul Chryst of the Wisconsin Badgers must handle Saturday’s game.

In November, the Minnesota Golden Gophers – who are preparing to face the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday — have played two very big games: one against the Penn State Nittany Lions, the other against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Both games were hugely affected by game-management decisions. In one, Minnesota’s opponent made the game-management mistakes. In the other, P.J. Fleck made the game-management mistakes. The Gophers beat Penn State and lost to Iowa.

As Minnesota prepares to face Wisconsin in a battle for the Big Ten West Division championship, it is worth noting the large role game management has played in Minnesota’s month of November. If Saturday’s showdown is close in the final minutes, both Fleck and Paul Chryst will need to make sound and responsible chess moves. Fleck in particular has to bounce back from a brutal showing against Iowa two weeks ago.

Here was the situation: Minnesota was trailing Iowa 23-13 late in the game and had first and goal near the Iowa goal line. The play clock, however, was running down, and Fleck called one of his remaining timeouts. On third or fourth down near the goal line, one can make the argument that saving five yards is crucial in the attempt to score the touchdown, thereby necessitating the use of a timeout. That is not an ideal move to make, but it is reasonable and defensible. Calling that same timeout on first or second down is not. There are too many chances to score from the 6- or 7-yard line to justify using a timeout, especially when it is clear that a team will need to get the ball back late in the game (barring the recovery of an onside kick).

Fleck’s use of a timeout – Minnesota did score a touchdown and then failed on the conversion after the touchdown to remain down by four points, 23-19 – cost the Gophers 45 seconds they otherwise would have been able to retain on Iowa’s subsequent possession. Minnesota got the ball back after an Iowa punt, but with 45 fewer seconds than it otherwise would have had. The Gophers lost, 23-19, in part because Fleck did not properly value a timeout.

A few weeks earlier, Fleck’s opponent made the game-management blunders, influencing the shape of the battle in the second half. Penn State’s James Franklin went for two in the third quarter of a game his team trailed, 24-19. There were many plot twists left in this game, but Franklin chased a point well before the fourth quarter. When Penn State failed and Minnesota then scored a touchdown for a 31-19 lead, that point loomed large. Minnesota led by 12, not 11, which meant that when PSU was down 12, a field goal did absolutely nothing for the Nittany Lions.

Sure enough, Penn State got into a red-zone situation where – had it trailed by 11 points – a field goal would have trimmed its deficit to eight, a one-score game. Down 12, Penn State had to go for it. The Nittany Lions failed. Penn State did scramble back to score a touchdown and create a 31-26 game. PSU drove deep into Minnesota territory in the final minute, but got intercepted on a dangerous, risky throw. Had Franklin not chased the point at 24-19 in the third quarter – which meant he would have kicked a field goal later – Penn State might have had 30 points, and would have had at least 29, in that final minute. There would not have been a need to make dangerous throws in range for a winning field goal. Having to score a touchdown, though, necessitated a more aggressive approach. It blew up in Franklin’s face.

Game management – not just making individual decisions in certain moments, but understanding how decisions need to be stacked together in a big-picture view of how a team gains a path to victory – helped Minnesota beat Penn State. Game management helped Minnesota lose to Iowa. When P.J. Fleck and Paul Chryst match wits on Saturday, they will both need to be on their game… in the realm of game management.

Fourth downs will loom large in Wisconsin – Minnesota

A few words on how fourth downs will shape the game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

One of the more noticeable and pleasant stories of 2019 for the Wisconsin Badgers is that Paul Chryst has adjusted and evolved with the times. Chryst has been more willing to go for it on fourth downs this year. He has been more willing to stress the need for his offense to keep the ball instead of playing field position. This is where smarter, better, more analytical football decisions are moving – slowly, yes, but surely – and Chryst has gotten aboard the train before the end of the decade.

When the Badgers face the Minnesota Golden Gophers, you can bet that Chryst will go for some fourth downs he wouldn’t have pursued in the past. This isn’t necessarily a comforting notion, but it does offer the promise of an exciting, volatile day in Minneapolis. A fourth-down play might be the most memorable play in Badgers-Gophers. We will see if that turns out to be the case, and we will also find out which team celebrates after one such play.

The big point to keep in mind on fourth-down decisions is that while most football fans and analysts focus on the decision itself, the equally (sometimes more) important component of coaching strategy is the play call attached to the decision. This is similar on 2-point conversions when coaches go for them in various debatable situations. Analysts will spend 10 minutes railing against the decision to go for two (or fourth down), when the play call was utter trash.

Yes, if Wisconsin gets off to a big start and maintains a healthy lead for most of the day (wouldn’t that be great!), there might not be a fourth down of considerable significance in this game. Yet, given how tough Minnesota has been at home – and in the second half of the 2019 season after an uneven September in which the Gophers plainly got lucky against below-average teams) – I doubt we will see a drama-free football game. Fourth downs are likely to matter.

So, when these critical junctures arrive, let’s see what Chryst and his offensive staff are able to show the Gophers. Will they save their very best plays? Will they react to Minnesota’s tendencies or have a “this is our play, try and stop us?” approach. Play-calling is done by feel. Chryst will need to feel this game as finely as any game he has coached at UW.

No pressure, Paul.

Wisconsin’s 2017 Cotton Bowl put PJ Fleck, Paul Chryst center stage

Recalling the 2017 Cotton Bowl (January, not December) between Paul Chryst’s Wisconsin Badgers and P.J. Fleck’s Western Michigan Broncos.

The Cotton Bowl had two games in 2017: One was played in late December, when Ohio State defeated USC. The other one was played on January 2 of that year, when the Wisconsin Badgers defeated the Western Michigan Broncos, 24-16. Western Michigan was the Mid-American Conference champion, the first (and still only, to date) MAC champion to win the Group of Five championship and play in a New Year’s Six bowl. The coaching quality of PJ Fleck emerged that season, when WMU went unbeaten in the regular season and earned its big date with Paul Chryst and Wisconsin in Arlington, Texas.

This was the first really big game between Fleck and Chryst. Their second really big encounter is this Saturday, as the Minnesota Golden Gophers try to win the Big Ten West for the first time and deny the Wisconsin Badgers a rematch with the Ohio State Buckeyes in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Last year’s Fleck-versus-Chryst game didn’t sizzle. I say that not because Wisconsin was on the short end, but because Wisconsin didn’t have a very good team. Minnesota was also trying to find its bearings under Fleck and gain an identity as a program. This 2019 meeting, on the other hand, is a clash of quality teams and a battle for a division championship, maybe even a ticket to the Rose Bowl (with Penn State being in the mix for that latter prize as well). It is worth looking back on the first especially significant encounter between Fleck and Chryst on a national stage.

One key note to make about that (January) 2017 Cotton Bowl was that Chryst went into battle against Fleck and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca (who accompanied Fleck in moving from Western Michigan to Minnesota) with Justin Wilcox as his defensive coordinator. The Western Michigan-Wisconsin Cotton Bowl is therefore not a renewal of the assistant coach battle (and Broyles Award semifinalist showdown) between Ciarrocca and current UW defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard.

Yet, even though so many faces were different — Wisconsin had T.J. Watt and Vince Biegel on defense, Corey Clement and Troy Fumagalli on offense — a few details of this game are certainly worth noting in connection to what we will see this upcoming Saturday in Minneapolis.

Jan 2, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Corey Clement (6) and head coach Paul Chryst and tight end Troy Fumagalli (81) celebrate the win over the Western Michigan Broncos in the 2017 Cotton Bowl game at AT&T Stadium. The Badgers defeat the Broncos 24-16. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The third-down conversion rates for both teams were impressive. Western Michigan was 5 of 11, Wisconsin 7 of 11. The Badgers won this battle, and it certainly mattered in propelling them to victory. However, Western Michigan’s ability to convert a reasonable percentage of third downs enabled the Broncos to stay close. Time of possession in this game was a virtual tie: 30:05 for Wisconsin, 29:55 for Western Michigan. The Broncos kept the ball from the Badgers long enough to keep the game close. Western Michigan did cover the 8.5-point Wisconsin betting line. However, Western Michigan — with receiver Corey Davis on its roster — needed to hit the home-run pass to beat Wisconsin, and that did not happen against Wisconsin and Wilcox’s defense.

Davis had six catches for only 73 yards — 12 per catch — and was outgained by Wisconsin’s best offensive player that day. Fumagalli made sensational grabs in that contest, accumulating 83 receiving yards and powering the Badgers’ offense on a day when Clement was held to 71 yards by Western Michigan’s resolute defense.

I don’t need to tell anyone that Minnesota is more physical and skilled than that 2016 Western Michigan team. The Gophers are a much more formidable version of Fleck’s first great team in his coaching career. Nevertheless, the game flow Wisconsin established that day against Western Michigan is something Chryst and his staff will certainly want to replicate against Minnesota. If you offered Chryst a deal in which his team would get a 14-0 first-quarter lead, and get an 11-of-12 passing line for 159 yards — as Bart Houston delivered on that day — from Jack Coan, he will take it. He would sign on the dotted line. Sure, he wouldn’t like the part of the deal in which his lead running back gains only 71 yards, but the 7 of 11 number on third downs would likely lead him to accept this larger package of circumstances.

Strong third-down conversion rates, supremely efficient situational passing, and a two-touchdown first-quarter lead — with the opposing offense, coached by Fleck and Ciarrocca, not hitting a long downfield pass play — give Wisconsin and Paul Chryst a roadmap for how to play this game Saturday. The biggest concern and question mark: Can Jim Leonhard get a Fleck-busting defensive performance which was every bit as impressive as Justin Wilcox in the 2017 Cotton Bowl? More precisely, can Wisconsin’s back seven defend the RPOs and other delights the Fleck-Ciarrocca brain trust has in store for the Badgers in Minneapolis?

We will get to find out soon enough.

Big Ten Football Week 14 Rooting Interests

With one week left in the college football season, bowl pictures are beginning to shape up. Here is what every Big Ten team should root fo.

We have already looked at what Ohio State should root for this week. As the Buckeyes have gone undefeated until now and the Playoff picture is clearer, Ohio State’s interests are becoming simpler. There is plenty for the rest of the Big Ten to root for, though, especially as the bowl picture becomes clearer. There isn’t much for the lower Big Ten teams to root for, so I’m only going to deal with those teams that are (potentially) bowl-eligible. I will go more or less in reverse order of the current Big Ten standings, but Indiana is by far the most interesting, so I’ll deal with them before Illinois.

Michigan State Spartans

This is simple for the Spartans. Win this week and go bowling. Depending on what fans want in a bowl game, other rooting interests can be different. Do you want to face another 6-6 P5 team? Root for North Carolina and Boston College to win this week. (And I guess for Clemson to lose to South Carolina to potentially free up another ACC bowl spot.) If you’d rather see Michigan State play a more winnable game against a replacement team, then root against North Carolina and Boston College instead.

Indiana Hoosiers

The last time Indiana was in anything approximating a major bowl game was the 1990 Peach Bowl. Well, due to a weird confluence of circumstances, the Hoosiers are looking at an Outback Bowl bid this year. How and why could the Big Ten’s seventh-best team end up in a New Years’ Day (and the conference’s third/fourth-best) bowl game? Let’s break it down.

The Big Ten’s current six-year bowl contract states that each bowl must have at least five different teams over the six year. The only Big Ten bowl partner that has to worry about meeting this criteria is the Outback Bowl. The Outback Bowl took Iowa both last year and after the 2016 season, and therefore has only had four Big Ten teams in the last five year. The other three teams were Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern won’t be in any bowl game this year, obviously. However, this means that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa cannot be selected for this year’s Outback Bowl.

So, what other teams would be selected in front of Indiana? The other top-level options are Ohio State, Penn State, and Minnesota. It seems nearly impossible for Ohio State to not make an NY6 Bowl. So all Indiana needs is for Penn State and Minnesota to be selected for NY6 bowls or the Citrus Bowl, and Indiana is the only real choice left for the Outback Bowl.

What should Indiana fans look for to get this outcome?

First of all, Ohio State should beat Michigan to keep the Wolverines out of the NY6 and Citrus Bowl pool. Then Minnesota should beat Wisconsin. If those two happen, Indiana is a near-lock for the Outback Bowl. The Ohio State-Minnesota winner will make the Playoff and the loser heads to the Rose Bowl; Penn State will either be in the Orange Bowl or Citrus Bowl. And even if Big Ten bowls slide up a slot or two (say, if both Ohio State and Minnesota make the Playoff and/or if Penn State gets the Cotton Bowl), Indiana will still get the Outback Bowl. Michigan and/or Wisconsin would move up into the next NY6 bowl or Citrus Bowl, which still leaves Indiana as the best option for the Outback Bowl.

In fact, even if Indiana loses to Purdue, the Hoosiers are possibly headed to the Outback Bowl. Illinois would be competition for the spot, though, so Northwestern taking out Illinois would be important. Of course, there is a chance the Outback Bowl would request a 6-6 Michigan State team (or Nebraska) over Indiana, so Indiana should just take care of business and beat Purdue.

If, however, Wisconsin beats Minnesota or Michigan beats Ohio State, then things get complicated. As long as Penn State or Minnesota doesn’t get pushed out of the NY6 and Citrus Bowls, Indiana will get the Outback. If, however, one of those two falls far enough, that team will almost certainly get priority for the Outback Bowl over Indiana.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois is very likely locked into the Pinstripe Bowl (very slight change at the Redbox Bowl). While the Big Ten bowl pool doesn’t officially have any real hierarchy, in reality those are the two lowest. And it makes sense–those will also have the weaker opponents, which will provide better games. The Pinstripe Bowl will have a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, while the Redbox Bowl will feature a middle-of-the-pack Pac 12 team. Either should be a good opponent for this Illinois team.

If Illinois fans want a more prestigious bowl, though, just look at everything in the last section about Indiana. Root for all of that, plus an Indiana loss to Purdue. If that happens, 7-5 Illinois might just be the Outback Bowl’s (and the Big Ten’s) preferred choice.

Next… Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan

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