Tag: Michael Thomas fantasy football

Is the risk worth the reward with Saints WR Michael Thomas?

After a serious career derailment, is it time to get behind Thomas once again?

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas has been a roller coaster of ups and downs in his career – reaching the highest of peaks and the sharpest of drops over his seven NFL seasons.

In his first four seasons with Drew Brees, it looked as though Thomas was building a first-ballot Hall of Fame resume. In 63 games, he caught 470 passes for 5,512 yards and 32 touchdowns. Then lower-body injuries started piling up, and he began missing a ton of time – ironically coinciding with signing a massive five-year, $96 million contract.

In 2020, Thomas played in just seven games – missing time with ankle and hamstring injuries. The team felt he needed surgery to fix the nagging ankle problem, but Thomas received a second opinion that said rehabilitation could heal it. It didn’t, and Thomas had ankle surgery in June 2021 – missing the entire season and creating an ugly rift between himself and the coaching staff. Supposedly fully healed, Thomas suffered a toe injury in Week 3 of last season that sidelined him the remainder of the year.

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Given the strained relationship, many organizations would have parted ways with Thomas, but his contract is the rub. He signed an incentive-heavy, one-year deal for $10 million that could reach $15 million. However, with his restructured deal, if he was traded or released this year, the Saints would take a dead money cap hit of $36 million (or $21.9 million if he is moved out prior to the 2024 season). Like it or not, the Saints almost have to keep him if they want to be competitive, even if he no-shows again this year.

Thomas has missed 40 of the last 49 games the Saints have played, and anyone who invested in him as a presumptive fantasy starter was burned. This may be Thomas’ final year to attempt to reclaim his spot as an elite receiver, but patience is running out after three years of providing nothing.

Fantasy football outlook

Thomas has shown the ability to catch passes in bunches – he has averaged 7.2 receptions a game throughout his career. But what seems just as clear is that there are a lot fewer people who believe in Thomas as a fantasy threat than there have ever been.

In most Average Draft Position rankings, Thomas is checking in at about No. 45, which makes him a WR4 or WR5 in most leagues. A ranking that low is indicative those conducting early drafts have no faith that Thomas’ lower body will be able to endure the strain of a full season. Why not take someone else who provides more durability? The shine is definitely off of Thomas and, if history repeats itself with injury, this will be his last season in New Orleans.

The flip side of the argument is that a fantasy WR5 isn’t being counted on to be in weekly lineups. With four wide receivers in front of him on a roster, Thomas becomes a much more low-risk investment as the fifth guy.

While it’s understandable to be leery of Thomas by not touching him until you have rostered four receivers, few rank as low as him and have the ceiling that Thomas provides. Eventually, risk and value will converge – but most likely as a fifth receiver with big upside.

Fantasy football players on the rebound for 2022

Which fantasy football weapons are poised to rebound in 2022?

Every season, several proven players regress and even fall off of the fantasy football map due to injury, demotion, a poor system fit, or another unforeseen calamity. Players of the fake game understandably tend to be of the, “What has he done for me lately?” mindset and may underrate some proven options coming off a bad year.

Heading into the 2022 season, we’ll explore which players are most likely to bounce back from a down year in 2021. The players are ordered from least to most important in relation to their potential fantasy returns.

Be sure to sign up for The Huddle to gain the needed edge on your competition. In this space last year, we correctly called bounce-back performances from the likes of Dak Prescott, Austin Ekeler, Deebo Samuel, and Matthew Stafford to help create winning rosters.

Fantasy football players on the rebound for 2022

Fantasy football injury outlook: New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas

What’s the current update on the one-time fantasy football stud?

No player in the history of the NFL had four seasons to start a career like New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas. In four years, he caught 470 passes for 5,512 yards and 32 touchdowns – seeing his reception and yardage numbers grow each year and getting whispers about Canton circulating.

He was as dominant as any position player in the league and prolonged Drew Brees’ Hall of Fame career by becoming a go-to guy of historic proportions. In 2019, he earned a well-deserved second contract – five years, $96 million with $60 million in guarantees.

All was good in New Orleans until Week 1 of the 2020 season. Thomas suffered a significant ankle injury, which limited him to just seven games that season, as the Saints kept him on the active roster for six weeks expecting he would return sooner.

He didn’t.

With Brees retired and the Saints’ short-term future in question, Thomas surprised many by waiting until June 2021 to have ankle surgery, assuring he wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. As it turned out, he had a setback in his recovery and needed a second surgery in November – completely erasing his 2021 season.

Given his contract, which includes a $38.3 million dead cap number this year, $25.5 million in 2023, and $13.6 million in 2024, it’s clear that Thomas isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. But that doesn’t mean the Saints aren’t hedging their bets and looking at their options in the event they spend a third straight year largely without Thomas – and clearly without the Thomas they remember.

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It wasn’t so much the utilization of their first-round draft pick on Chris Olave that perked up the ears of those wondering if they should be doubting Thomas, it was the free-agent signing of Jarvis Landry that set off the alarms.

The investment in the position wasn’t necessary if there was conviction on the part of the front office that Thomas will be coming back and at 100 percent. When asked about the receiver’s rehabilitation prior to the draft, general manager Mickey Loomis said, “His progress is hopefully going well.”

Hopefully? That sounds like a disconnect between a player and the team’s medical staff, which wouldn’t be the first time with Thomas.

Thomas’ latest public update positions him to be ready for training camp. Earlier this week, head coach Dennis Allen said, “I think he’s doing well in his rehab.”

Think?

It seems clear the Saints have an after-Thomas plan in place. The last time Thomas took the field, Brees was his quarterback and Sean Payton was his coach. Both are gone.

Even if the man once known as “Can’t Guard Mike” makes it back, there is more competition for targets and a different look to his own locker room than he’s known in his NFL career. Quarterback Jameis Winston (knee) is the presumed starter after re-signing after knee reconstruction, and Andy Dalton will be waiting in the wings if the former Tampa passer isn’t ready in time.

Fantasy football takeaway

Devalue Thomas on your draft board, because the glory days of his first four seasons are getting dimmer in the rearview mirror. His current placement as an early pick in Round 4 assumes he’s a top-flight WR2, which just isn’t a wise approach.

He’s a much safer No. 3 in PPR, although there’s still enough upside to suggest he could be a No. 2 over a full slate. Be prepared to stockpile positional depth if you opt for him as a second wideout.

Fantasy football team previews: NFC South

Key coaching changes and QB news have dominated the NFC South’s offseason.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Saints starter Jameis Winston faces uphill climb in fantasy football

Despite being named the starter, Winston’s outlook is far from pretty.

The New Orleans Saints have named Jameis Winston the starting quarterback for Week 1. What are the ensuing ramifications to know entering upcoming fantasy football drafts?

Following 15 seasons of mostly elite-level play from Drew Brees, the Saints will hang their 2021 fortunes on the right arm of Winston after he beat out Taysom Hill.

When Brees went down last season, the Saints turned to Hill, who went 3-1 in his four starts, albeit against teams that finished a combined 13-34-1. That didn’t stop New Orleans from re-signing Winston, and the general vibe most of the offseason has been that the former Tampa Bay Buccaneer was the slight favorite to start all along.

It makes sense as Winston is four years younger and boasts a stronger arm. He also features a more comparable skill set to Brees as a pocket passer and has more experience — Winston has thrown 2,559 career passes to Hill’s 134. Moreover, the 31-year-old Hill is just not that talented of a thrower in comparison to Winston.

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Individual skill has never been in doubt when it comes to Winston. Ball security is sure to be a major focal point after Brees averaged a paltry 8.2 interceptions over his final eight seasons, which is an area that Winston has struggled in the past. Not every throw needs to be a hero ball, and head coach Sean Payton won’t have much patience for this kind of play.

Of course, if Winston is asked to operate the same type of quick-hitting passing attack as Brees, turnovers figure to be less of an issue. To a large degree, Payton can manipulate Winston into favorable situations.

He will play behind a strong offensive line and has among the league’s best one-two punches at running back in Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to lean on.

The receiving corps will be patchwork to begin the year, however. All-star wideout Michael Thomas (ankle) may not return until close to midseason after surgery, although he professes to be ahead of his rehab schedule. This leaves mostly unproven preseason darling Marquez Callaway as the likely WR1, followed by an amalgamation of Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring), who once again is injured and may be in doubt for Week 1, Deonte Harris, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. The trio of Callaway, Harris and Humphrey generated 49 combined career catches in the regular season. It felt like Thomas caught that many balls by halftime some weeks.

Winston starting drastically raises the floor for all of his weapons, though. His arm talent will make players around him better, particularly the deep threats, such as Callaway.

Starting tight end Adam Trautman (foot) has been widely pegged as a breakout candidate, but he was carted off in the season preseason game with a foot injury and doesn’t have a clear prognosis just yet. Media reports say he escaped serious injury but is week-to-week. To further complicate things, his backup, Nick Vannett, is out up to a month, which puts the first two games of the season in doubt.

Jameis Winston fantasy football outlook

Winston will be asked to do very little in the first couple of games. Play smart football, hand it off, check it down to Kamara, and then take the occasional deep shot to Callaway. Look for Harris to be a creatively used gadget weapon early on, while Humphrey is somewhat of an X-factor.

The Saints open vs. Green Bay, Carolina, and New England, followed by the New York Giants and Washington before a Week 6 bye. Thomas is likely to return in Week 7. The early-season expectations for Winston should be rather low. All of those teams but Carolina have high-end pass defenses, and the Panthers’ improved pass rush could mask their deficiencies.

Even after the bye, life doesn’t get much easier, so Winston profiles as more of a spot-starter than a set-and-forget option. Some of the matchups could create more passing by necessity, and it will be a double-edged sword. Until we consistently see him protect the ball, increased passing from Winston is bound to lead to more mistakes than what you’d see from most other starters.

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Speculatively, he could become a victim of circumstance and lose his starting job through little fault of his own. With pretty close to a murderer’s row of a first five-game slate, coupled with limited weaponry, a 1-4 start, give or take, could compel Payton to make the move to Hill coming out of the Week 6 break. Be aware of this possibility if for some reason Winston is pegged to be your full-time starter.

Draft Winston as a low-end QB2 with marginal upside. He will use this opportunity as an audition to prove he can play intelligent football. His long-term fantasy worth is directly tied to the ability to make wise choices and show he isn’t a turnover vending machine.

Taysom Hill fantasy football outlook

Hill should be used in the same hybrid role he has filled the past couple of years, only with more snaps at QB. Payton had no qualms about pulling Brees in favor of Hill at pivotal times in the past few seasons, so one can bet that won’t change with Winston. If anything, we should see even more of Hill. As a standalone player, unless Winston implodes, no one should be playing Hill in 2021 leagues.

Fantasy football draft: Where to target New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas

Analyzing New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas’ 2021 fantasy football ADP and where you should target him in your drafts.

The upcoming fantasy season for New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas is a big question mark as he’s expected to miss the first few weeks while recovering from ankle surgery. Below, we look at Michael Thomas‘ 2021 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.

Thomas played in just seven games last season following a historic 2019 campaign in which he was named Offensive Player of the Year and broke the all-time, NFL single-season receptions record with 149 catches. He also led the league with 1,725 receiving yards that season.

Without a single touchdown in 2020-21, Thomas was expected to be back to his normal, dominant self this coming season, but injuries continue to plague him.

Michael Thomas’ ADP: 38.94

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)

Thomas’ ADP corresponds with him being the 38th non-IDP player typically taken off the board. He has been selected as high as No. 8 and as low as No. 72.

He’s being taken as the 10th wide receiver. Cincinnati Bengals rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase, likely having his stock helped by keeper and dynasty leagues, is being selected ninth. Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen is being taken 11th.

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Michael Thomas’ 2020 stats

Games: 7

Receptions: 40

Receiving yards: 438

Touchdowns: 0

Where should you take Michael Thomas in your fantasy football draft?

Thomas is going to slide in drafts. The tough part is gauging when enough is enough for one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL.

Considering the Saints have 2019 passing yards leader QB Jameis Winston leading the way, Thomas’ stock may get a slight drop regardless of his injuries.

Thomas is more important in PPR leagues and should be a high-risk, late fifth-round pick in those formats. I’d wait to take him till the sixth round in standard leagues where his high target share matters less.

With the limited knowledge of Thomas’ injury and how it may impact the rest of his season, understand taking him in any round is a risk. The fifth or sixth round is when to start looking at taking a flyer on the star.

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Michael Thomas injured: What’s ahead for Saints and fantasy owners?

Where can the Saints and fantasy gamers find help?

 

A few thoughts come to mind, but the primary question is when did Michael Thomas have the surgery? If it was early June, he likely will miss all of September. A procedure in mid-June puts him out into at least Week 7, since the New Orleans Saints have a Week 6 bye, and it makes little sense to risk rushing him back.

And all of that is based on the recommendation of four months, which is just that — a recommendation. Given how much Thomas has struggled to date with the injury, being hopeful about the short end of this prognosis isn’t wise.

The Saints are already looking at free-agent receivers, a list that includes veterans: Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Josh Gordon (suspended), Dede Westbrook and Isaiah Ford. Yikes. Among those players, Tate makes the most sense. Fitzgerald sort of does, too, given his skill set, albeit diminished by Father Time.

If the Saints are interested in going the trading route, Arizona Cardinals’ Christian Kirk could fit the bill. He’ll be a free agent in 2022, and his absence would give Arizona a chance to play some of their younger receivers. Chicago’s Anthony Miller might fit that description, too. One option, discussed yesterday but for a different team, is New England’s N’Keal Harry. He would be the best fit of this group from a physical perspective.

Another route is waiting to see how the roster cuts affect the veteran market while exploring what New Orleans has in some of its mostly untested receivers, such as Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris and Juwan Johnson. A less likely scenario would involve moving running back Ty Montgomery back to his natural position of wide receiver.

Fantasy football takeaway

The injury drastically devalues him in fantasy football, and it leaves a gaping hole in the offensive weaponry for the Saints. It also crushes any optimism regarding quarterback Jameis Winston, provided he indeed beats out Taysom Hill.

What it does, however, is open the door for tight end Adam Trautman to have a humongous role in the target share for a month or more. It also thrusts Tre’Quan Smith into the WR1 role. Trautman is largely unproven after catching only 15 passes as a rookie in 2020, while Smith has been given several chances to showcase his skills in between being a reserve player and fighting injuries.

Smith should get much more attention in fantasy drafts, and he’ll likely get overvalued by some owners. Trautman will be more popular in competitive circles but should still fly under the radar in casual leagues.

There will be more reliance on the running game in the first half of the year, and this move could make Latavius Murray all that much more value as Alvin Kamara cannot do it alone.

As for Thomas himself, err on the side of caution. Expect him to land on the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list and possibly get converted to the reserve version, which will cost him the first six games. He will have no offseason to improve chemistry with Winston and then has to get his conditioning back to where it needs to be during the year. It seems like the best-case scenario is he will be useful for half of the fantasy season. Treat him as a late-round gamble in PPR.