Tag: Marlins Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Miami Marlins visit the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday hoping to extend their NL Wild Card Series. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Phillies lead 1-0

The Marlins rallied from playing sub-.400 baseball in July and August for a 17-10 September finish and a spot in their 1st full-season playoffs since 2003. But Miami starter Jesus Luzardo faltered in Tuesday’s opener, allowing 3 runs on 8 hits. Now the Fish need to win to avoid an early exit.

Philadelphia’s pitching was shaky down the stretch, and the club registered a 4.47 ERA over its last 30 games. But RHP Zach Wheeler and 3 relievers were sharp in allowing just 1 run Tuesday. And the Phillies offense created 4 runs despite going just 3 of 14 with runners in scoring position.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Garrett went 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA in the regular season. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 159 2/3 innings over 30 starts and 1 relief appearance.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 K in 11-2 road loss vs. New York Mets last Wednesday
• 2023 road stats: 6-3, 2.85 ERA in 79 IP across 15 starts; benefited from a .273 batting average on balls in play
• Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 2-1, 4.50 ERA in 24 IP
• Has never pitched in the postseason

Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA this season. He registered a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-2 home win vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 26; owns a 2.60 ERA, 1.04 across last 3 starts
• 2023 home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
• Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 1-2, 3.77 ERA in 31 IP
• Owns a 4.92 ERA in 25 2/3 postseason innings

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Marlins at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Marlins 3

Moneyline

The Marlins being over .500 with a scoring profile of 4.12 runs per game (RPG) while allowing 4.46 RPG makes them a fade lean for the series. The Fish went 33-13 in 1-run games to tilt the scales back the other way, but they are perhaps, at their base-talent level, an under-.500 club.

The Phils went 49-35 across June, July and August. If Miami sees the Philadelphia bunch as it played during that stretch, then the Phillies are a bargain at -180, let alone where this one is priced.

The Phils hit lefties and righties alike. Miami, however, sports a more dangerous lineup vs. port-siders (.755 OPS). They own a .711 OPS against right-handers.

The bullpens make for a green check in the Philadelphia column. Including Tuesday’s win, the Phils are 22-11 over their last 33 games at home.

This season, Garrett has clocked 16 IP against Philadelphia. Over those frames, he’s yielded 5 HRs and 12 ER. Nola’s surface numbers were dinged by opponents getting by with a .340 batting average on balls in play.

And then there is the extra-rest issue with which both hurlers are dealing. Over his career, when Garrett pitches on 6-plus days’ rest, he has experienced some control problems while allowing an .805 OPS. Nola’s case is the opposite: the veteran right-hander has held foes under a .600 OPS on such rest the last two years; for his career, he’s yielded just a .624 OPS on long rest,

BACK THE PHILLIES (-150).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Consider a Phillies -1.5 play if the return gets to +145 or greater.

Over/Under

No signals pointing to value on either side of this total. PASS.

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The Miami Marlins visit the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday to open their NL Wild Card Series. First pitch between the NL East foes at Citizens Park is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins won 7-6

Miami rallied after playing sub-.400 baseball in July and August to go 17-10 in September. That was good enough to earn the 2nd NL Wild Card and get the Marlins in their 1st full-season playoffs since 2003.

The Phillies won 90 regular-season games (90-72), finishing 2nd in the NL East and 5 1/2 games ahead of the 84-77 Marlins. However, September was a slowdown for a club that went 49-26 over a 75-game stretch from June 3-Aug. 29. After Aug. 29, Philadelphia played just .533 ball (.16-14). Pitching was the culprit, with the Phils logging a 4.47 ERA over those last 30 games.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Luzardo went 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 32 regular-season starts. He  registered a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 178 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 2-1 road win vs. New York Mets Thursday
• 2023 road stats: 5-5, 4.48 ERA in 70 1/3 IP
• Career vs. Phillies: 3-0, 3.26 ERA in 30 1/3 IP
• Notched a 3.06 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 35 1/3 IP over his final 6 starts
• Owns a 5.91 ERA in 10 2/3 postseason IP over 2 starts and 1 relief appearance (2019-20)

Wheeler made 32 starts in the regular season. He authored a 13-6 record with a 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Thursday
• 2023 home stats: 5-2, 4.13 ERA in 89 1/3 IP
• Career vs. Marlins: 10-2, 2.48 ERA in 141 1/3 IP
• Is 1-3 with a 2.78 ERA across 35 2/3 IP across 6 starts in postseason play (2022)

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Marlins at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:23 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Marlins 3

Moneyline

The Marlins being over .500 with a scoring profile of 4.12 runs per game (RPG) while allowing 4.46 RPG makes them a fade in a vacuum. The Fish went 33-13 in 1-run games to tilt the scales back the other way, but they are perhaps at their core an under-.500 club.

If Miami sees the Philadelphia bunch as it played in the summer, then the Phillies are a bargain at -180, let alone where this one is priced.

The Phils hit lefties and righties alike. Miami, however, sports a more dangerous lineup vs. port-siders (.755 OPS). They own a .711 OPS against right-handers.

For the bullpens, put a green check in the Philadelphia column.

The Phils are 4-1 across their last 5 series openers and are 21-11 over their last 32 games at home.

PHILLIES (-165) is the value side here.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

With respect for the low total and the Marlins’ penchant for playing tight ones. There is some value on a Phillies -1.5 (+130) wager for people who prefer the run line.

Over/Under

No O/U lean for the teams. The pitching here is solid, and the probability this one lands on 6, 7, of 8 runs is high. PASS.

IF LINED WITH FANDUEL AS AUDIBLE: FanDuel Sportsbook

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The Miami Marlins (73-69) and Philadelphia Phillies (78-63) wrap up their 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park Sunday. First pitch is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze Fanduel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 5-5

The Marlins look to win their 3rd straight series on Sunday. Miami has won 7 of their last 9 games by outscoring their opponents 55-42. The Fish are 33-37 on the road this season.

The Phillies have struggled to get a win streak going, losing 5 of their last 9 games. The pitching has failed to keep them in ball games allowing more than 5 runs per game over this stretch. Philadelphia is 42-27 at home this season.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Steven Okert vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Okert (3-1, 3.44 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 57th appearance. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 52 1/3 innings.

• Last appearance: No-decision, 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K in relief in 3-2 win at the Philadelphia Phillies Friday
• 2023 road stats: 2-1, 3.00 ERA (27 IP, 9 ER), .198 OBA in 28 appearances

Suarez (2-6, 3.91 ERA) will make his 19th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 101 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-2 victory at the Milwaukee Brewers on September 3
• 2023 vs. Marlins: 0-1, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 1 HR, 6 BB, 7 K in 2 starts
• 2023 home stats: 0-3, 5.03 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 27 ER), .263 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts

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Marlins at Philllies odds

Provided by Fanduel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-134) | Phillies -1.5 (+112)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

BET MARLINS (+160).

I think this game is closer than the odds would lead you to believe. The Marlins are playing more consistently than the Phillies and I believe they can win this game. I also love the +160 you are getting for a pretty even matchup on Sunday afternoon. Don’t bet the farm but go with a half unit.

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID.

I am not going to touch the run line. I don’t believe the Phillies cover and the -134 odds for the Marlins getting the 1 1/2 does not entice me either. I’ll just stick with the moneyline.

Over/Under

PASS.

My lean would be the under but I am not confident enough to take this bet. In their 10 meetings this season, these teams have gone Under this total in 7 of them.

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The Miami Marlins (72-68) and Philadelphia Phillies (77-62) meet Friday  to kick off a pivotal 3-game set. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is set for 7:05 p.m.E.T. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 5-5

Miami is coming off a home series win, taking 2 out of 3 from the 1st-place Los Angeles Dodgers. The Marlins have won 6 of their last 7, including a 4-game sweep of the Washington Nationals. They’ll be coming into this series  with a 4-game road win streak.

Philadelphia is also coming off a strong showing, taking the rubber match (as a -118 favorite) and series win in a 3-game set over the San Diego Padres. The Phillies have won 6 of their last 10, and 4 of their last 5 games started by Cristopher Sanchez.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Eury Perez vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Perez (5-4, 2.86 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.86 BB/9 and 10.87 K/9 in 78.2 innings.

• Coming off an up and down start against the Washington Nationals when he gave up 3 ER in 4.2 IP
• Miami has won 2 of the last 5 games he’s started
• First time facing Phillies in 2023

Sanchez (2-3, 3.48 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.44 BB/9 and 8.28 K/9 in 75 innings.

• Coming off a shaky start vs. the Los Angeles Angels: ND after giving up 5 runs (3 earned) in 4.2 IP
• Phillies have won 4 of his last 5 starts
• First start vs. Marlins in 2023

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Marlins at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:38 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -15 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Marlins 3

Moneyline

Both teams are fighting for NL Wild Card spots, and each is coming in with some momentum. It’s a big tossup as to which streaky offense will show up. Too many question marks on both sides.

STAY AWAY.

Run line/Against the spread

Again, too many mixed signals here to feel comfortable on either side of the fence. On paper, the Marlins surely have the pitching advantage, and are bringing in relatively hot bats, but the Phillies generally find a way to win, specifically behind starter Sanchez.

AVOID

Over/Under

Although both offenses have looked good, especially as of late, look for this to have potential to be an under-the-radar pitching matchup. With the playoffs right around the corner, each offense will have to do the little things to push runs across. Although the Marlins have hit the Over total in their last 6 games, and the Phillies have done the same in 20 of their last 29, I’m going with the underrated pitching duel here.

BACK UNDER 9 (-110).

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