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The Miami Marlins visit the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday to open their NL Wild Card Series. First pitch between the NL East foes at Citizens Park is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins won 7-6
Miami rallied after playing sub-.400 baseball in July and August to go 17-10 in September. That was good enough to earn the 2nd NL Wild Card and get the Marlins in their 1st full-season playoffs since 2003.
The Phillies won 90 regular-season games (90-72), finishing 2nd in the NL East and 5 1/2 games ahead of the 84-77 Marlins. However, September was a slowdown for a club that went 49-26 over a 75-game stretch from June 3-Aug. 29. After Aug. 29, Philadelphia played just .533 ball (.16-14). Pitching was the culprit, with the Phils logging a 4.47 ERA over those last 30 games.
Marlins at Phillies projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Luzardo went 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 32 regular-season starts. He registered a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 178 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 2-1 road win vs. New York Mets Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 5-5, 4.48 ERA in 70 1/3 IP
- Career vs. Phillies: 3-0, 3.26 ERA in 30 1/3 IP
- Notched a 3.06 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 35 1/3 IP over his final 6 starts
- Owns a 5.91 ERA in 10 2/3 postseason IP over 2 starts and 1 relief appearance (2019-20)
Wheeler made 32 starts in the regular season. He authored a 13-6 record with a 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 192 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Thursday
- 2023 home stats: 5-2, 4.13 ERA in 89 1/3 IP
- Career vs. Marlins: 10-2, 2.48 ERA in 141 1/3 IP
- Is 1-3 with a 2.78 ERA across 35 2/3 IP across 6 starts in postseason play (2022)
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Marlins at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 8:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
The Marlins being over .500 with a scoring profile of 4.12 runs per game (RPG) while allowing 4.46 RPG makes them a fade in a vacuum. The Fish went 33-13 in 1-run games to tilt the scales back the other way, but they are perhaps at their core an under-.500 club.
If Miami sees the Philadelphia bunch as it played in the summer, then the Phillies are a bargain at -180, let alone where this one is priced.
The Phils hit lefties and righties alike. Miami, however, sports a more dangerous lineup vs. port-siders (.755 OPS). They own a .711 OPS against right-handers.
For the bullpens, put a green check in the Philadelphia column.
The Phils are 4-1 across their last 5 series openers and are 21-11 over their last 32 games at home.
PHILLIES (-165) is the value side here.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
With respect for the low total and the Marlins’ penchant for playing tight ones. There is some value on a Phillies -1.5 (+130) wager for people who prefer the run line.
Over/Under
No O/U lean for the teams. The pitching here is solid, and the probability this one lands on 6, 7, of 8 runs is high. PASS.
IF LINED WITH FANDUEL AS AUDIBLE: FanDuel Sportsbook
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