Tag: Marlins Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (31-30) host the Miami Marlins (27-32) Tuesday for the 2nd of their 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Phillies won the series opener 3-2 Monday thanks to 1B Rhys Hoskins‘ walk-off RBI double and a quality start by RHP Aaron Nola (7 IP, 2 ER, 6H, 0 BB and 6 K).

Season series: Miami leads 3-2 with a plus-7 run differential in the 5 games.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Zach Eflin  

Rogers is 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 50 IP across 11 starts.

  • Last start: Won 7-4 Thursday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 10-3 home loss April 16 with 1 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K.

Eflin is 2-4 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 55 IP across 10 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Philly’s 8-3 win Thursday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 2 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Marlins: One start, a 7-1 loss in Miami April 15 with 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-170) | Phillies -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 3

Money line

BET a half-unit on the MARLINS (+125).

There’s reverse line movement headed toward Miami in the betting market as more than 85% of the cash at Tipico Sportsbook is on the Phillies (-155), but their ML has shrunk from a -160 opener. This is suspicious because oddsmakers typically move the line according to the betting splits.

Miami’s lineup is slightly more productive vs. right-handed pitching (5.04 runs per 9) than Philly’s is against left-handed pitching (4.86 runs per 9).

Rogers’ road ERA is 5.51 runs lower than his home ERA (8.85-3.34) and Eflin has a 5.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP when pitching on 4 days rest.

Also, Miami’s bullpen ranks 10th in xFIP with significantly better contact and swing-and-miss rates than Philly’s, which ranks 23rd in xFIP (4.17), per FanGraphs.

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN MARLINS +1.5 (-170).

The Phillies -1.5 (+135) are 13-17 RL as home favorites and 7-14 RL in NL East games. Miami is 17-6 RL as road underdogs, which includes a RL cover in the series opener with Philly.

It’s only a LEAN to the MARLINS +1.5 (-170) because of the price and my favorite look in this game is Miami’s ML.

Over/Under

PASS.

These teams have a combined 14-7 O/U record when these starters get the nod and Monday’s Marlins-Phillies went Under the total so Tuesday’s meeting could ping-pong Over the total.

But Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB, aka is the most pitcher-friendly, Eflin’s pitching peripherals are outstanding and Rogers has elite stuff and will find his groove eventually.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (27-31) start a 3-game set with NL East co-tenant Philadelphia Phillies (30-30) Monday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a 2-1 series win at the Houston Astros last weekend, a 3-game sweep at home of the Washington Nationals and a 4-game series split at home vs. the San Francisco Giants before that.

Philly is 9-1 SU over the last 10, but had its 9-game winning streak snapped Sunday with a 13-1 blowout loss at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Since firing Joe Girardi as manager June 3, the Phillies are 8-1 SU.

Season series: Miami leads 3-1 with a plus-8 run differential.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Aaron Nola  

Alcantara is 6-2 with a 1.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 83 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 2-1 extra-inning home win June 8 vs. the Nationals with 9 scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start, a 4-3 home win April 14 with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K.

Nola is 4-4 with a 3.50 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 74 2/3 IP across 12 starts.

  • Last start: Won 10-0 Wednesday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 8 scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 17 K in 2 starts.

Marlins at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Phillies 2

Money line

BET the MARLINS (+110).

Miami has a 3-phase edge over the Phillies (-135) in starting and relief pitching and hitting and “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market with the presumed sharp side of the market backing the Marlins.

Alcantara grades higher in most advanced pitching metrics and has a 0.85 ERA in his last 7 starts while Nola has a 3.26 ERA in his last 7 starts. Miami’s bullpen is better than Philly’s in xFIP (4.19-3.76) and K/BB rate (2.64-2.08), per FanGraphs.

Also, Miami’s lineup ranks ahead of Philly’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (115-104), wOBA (.328-.321) and BB/K rate (0.38-0.31), according to FanGraphs.

Finally, nearly 80% of the cash is on the Marlins but roughly 60% of the bets placed are on the Phillies, per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is the one to follow.

BET the MARLINS (+110).

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Marlins +1.5 (-190) is just too pricey even though Miami is 16-6 RL as road underdogs and the Phillies -1.5 (+155) are 13-16 RL as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

Both teams have their ace on the mound Monday, Citizens Bank Park has the lowest park factor in the MLB (aka the most pitcher-friendly) and the Marlins are 4-7 O/U in Alcantara’s 11 starts.

But, Marlins-Phillies is 4-1 O/U in their last 5 meetings, Philly is 7-4-1 O/U in Nola’s 11 starts and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed south of the total. Most of the action is on the Under, but the line has ticked down from an 8-run opener, according to Pregame.com.

This RLM is suspicious hence the LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (40-51) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-45) play the finale of a three-game set Sunday at Citizens Bank Park following the completion of Saturday’s suspended game. First pitch is tenatively scheduled for 2:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Saturday’s action is set to resume at 1:05 p.m. ET as play was suspended in the 10th inning due to rain with things squared up 2-2. Sunday’s action is set to start 20-40 minutes following the completion of Saturday’s game.

LHP Braxton Garrett is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.77 WHIP with 8 K and 5 BB over 11 1/3 IP across two starts and one relief appearance.

Garrett last started June 14 at St. Louis. The lefty hurled 4 1/3 IP allowing 2 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 3 K taking a no-decision in the Marlins’ 4-2 loss.

RHP Zach Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 6-5 with a 2.26 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 across 119 2/3 IP in 18 starts.

Wheeler had a rare poor outing last time out July 7 at the Chicago Cubs, yielding 7 runs (4 earned) across 5 2/3 IP. His ERA shot up from 2.05 to 2.26 as a result.

Wheeler faced the Marlins May 18 at “The Bank”, allowing 1 unearned run, 5 hits and no walks with 10 strikeouts across 7 innings in a no-decision.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:24 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-110) | Phillies -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies (-225) are a little expensive with Wheeler on the bump. He handled the Marlins in a rather impressive fashion in his previous start against them this season.

AVOID, and play the run line as a more affordable alternative.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The PHILLIES -1.5 (-110) are a better play on the run line. Miami will have a hard time getting the bats going against Wheeler just like they did back in May, and Philly should grab some runs against the Marlins hurlers.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 8 (-115) is the lean here, despite that we should get some good pitching from Wheeler. Pitchers will be contending with a 10-13 mph wind blowing out to the power alley in right-center field. It won’t go Over by much, but it should inch across the finish line late.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Joe Williams on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (40-51) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-45) continue their four-game series Saturday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 3’s first pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Friday to open the series with the Phillies winning the first game 5-2, and Miami took the second 7-0.

Season series: Marlins lead 6-5.

RHP Zach Thompson is on the hill for the Marlins. Thompson is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 across five starts in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 8-7 loss at the Atlanta Braves July 4.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 5 BB and 14 K in three starts.

RHP Vince Velasquez is Philadelphia’s projected starter. Velasquez is 3-4 with a 5.35 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 14 starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-5, with 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 2 K at the Boston Red Sox July 9.
  • Velasquez is 2-0 against Miami this season with 0.00 ERA, 13 IP, 5 H, 3 BB and 12 K in two starts.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 125 at-bats with a .280/.353/.400 slash line, 35/12 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies -1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 7, Phillies 5

Money line (ML)

I can only “LEAN” to the MARLINS (-105) for a half unit since Miami’s bullpen is significantly better than Philly’s.

For example, Marlins relievers allow the fewest home runs per nine innings and are sixth in WAR while the Phillies’ bullpen has the most blown saves and ranks 27th in WAR.

However, their lineups are equally below average vs. right-handed pitching, and the starting pitching matchup is a toss-up.

Velasquez pitched very well in his first two outings against the Marlins but he has a 6.89 ERA over his last seven starts, which includes a seven-inning scoreless effort June 29 vs. Miami.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t “like” Miami enough to lay it with the Marlins -1.5 (+145), and Miami is 2-7 ATS this season as a road favorite with a minus-2.6 run line margin; whereas Philly has an MLB-high 82.2% cover rate as a home dog (13-3 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-105) for a half unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since the “sharps” have steamed the total up from the 9-run opener with all their Over action.

Furthermore, the Marlins have played to the Over in four straight, and the Phillies have gone Over the total in their last six against teams with a losing record.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (39-50) and Philadelphia Phillies (44-44) kick-off their second halves of the season with a seven-inning doubleheader Friday at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Marlins lead 5-4.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s projected starter. Alcantara is 5-8 with a 3.09 ERA (116 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 across 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-1, with 4 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K July 8 vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Alcantara is 1-1 vs. the Marlins this year with 1.29 ERA (14 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 141 at-bats with a .248/.323/.397 slash line, 35/16 K/BB, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.

LHP Matt Moore is Philadelphia’s projected starter. Moore is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over six starts and six relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 1 K in Philadelphia’s 11-2 victory at the Boston Red Sox Saturday.
  • Moore appeared in Philly’s 6-0 loss to Miami May 20 with a stat line of 2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 29 at-bats with a .379/.400/.552 slash line, 7/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Marlins 3, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

I can only “LEAN” to the MARLINS (-125) for a half unit because Miami is 17-29 on the road this season, 10-18 vs. lefty starters while ranking in the bottom-5 against left-handed pitching in advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K.

That being said, it’s only a seven-inning game, and Alcantara has good stuff. Alcantara ranks in the 75th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA, exit velocity, chase rate and barrel rate.

Also, Alcantara is 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park for his career with a 1.03 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB rate in four starts.

Furthermore, if this game goes sideways for either or both starters then Miami’s bullpen is far more reliable than Philly’s. The Marlins’ relievers are sixth in WAR, and the Phillies’ bullpen is 27th in WAR.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Miami has only covered two of its eight games as a road favorite this season, and the Marlins -1.5 (+145) isn’t a big enough payout considering their ATS record as a road favorite and this being a seven-inning game.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 6.5 (-110) for 1 unit because Moore has given up only four earned runs over 13 1/3 innings pitching in his last three starts, Alcantara has been dominant in Philly throughout his career, and the Under has cashed in four of the previous five Marlins-Phillies meetings.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (34-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (37-41) have split the first two games of their three-game series and will finish up Thursday with a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 4-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 91 IP over 16 starts.

Lopez has stepped up his game lately posting a 2.57 ERA and 48/6 K/BB in 42 IP across his last seven starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 90 IP over 15 starts.

Eflin has faced the Marlins twice so far this season, allowing 5 ER in 12 IP with a 12/2 K/BB. He’s had home run issues on the road, but in six starts at home has put up a 2.13 ERA with a 37/3 K/BB and 3 homers allowed in 38 IP.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-210) | Phillies -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are up on the Marlins by 3.5 games in the standings but the Marlins are far superior in run differential (+21 vs. -24). Given how well Lopez has pitched lately they also look to have the slight pitching edge in this matchup. Back the MARLINS (+105).

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by two or fewer runs and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, there doesn’t appear to be enough value to take +1.5 runs with either the Marlins (-210) or Phillies (-210). It’s probably best to just PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair Wednesday night as the Marlins won 11-6. That was the second time in the last five games they had put up 11 runs.

With two solid pitchers taking the mound Thursday another shootout seems unlikely but neither offense is likely to be completely shut down. The final score should end up pretty close to this total but look for OVER 8 (-105) to hit in the end.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (34-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (37-41) have split the first two games of their three-game series and will finish up Thursday with a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 4-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 91 IP over 16 starts.

Lopez has stepped up his game lately posting a 2.57 ERA and 48/6 K/BB in 42 IP across his last seven starts.

RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 90 IP over 15 starts.

Eflin has faced the Marlins twice so far this season, allowing 5 ER in 12 IP with a 12/2 K/BB. He’s had home run issues on the road, but in six starts at home has put up a 2.13 ERA with a 37/3 K/BB and 3 homers allowed in 38 IP.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-210) | Phillies -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are up on the Marlins by 3.5 games in the standings but the Marlins are far superior in run differential (+21 vs. -24). Given how well Lopez has pitched lately they also look to have the slight pitching edge in this matchup. Back the MARLINS (+105).

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by two or fewer runs and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, there doesn’t appear to be enough value to take +1.5 runs with either the Marlins (-210) or Phillies (-210). It’s probably best to just PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair Wednesday night as the Marlins won 11-6. That was the second time in the last five games they had put up 11 runs.

With two solid pitchers taking the mound Thursday another shootout seems unlikely but neither offense is likely to be completely shut down. The final score should end up pretty close to this total but look for OVER 8 (-105) to hit in the end.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadephia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (33-45) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (37-40) match up Wednesday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jordan Holloway is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 1-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Holloway has 14 K and 10 BB in 17 2/3 IP over two starts and six relief appearances.

In Holloway’s two starts, he has pitched a total of just 6 2/3 IP, allowing 5 ER along with an uninspiring 3/7 K/BB.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 90 2/3 IP over 16 starts.

Nola had his worst outing of the season two starts ago when he allowed 6 ER in 2 1/3 IP at San Francisco. He rebounded last time out, striking out 12 in 5 1/3 scoreless frames Friday against the Mets.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-110) | home -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies are 22-14 at home this year, while the Marlins have struggled to the tune of a 15-27 record on the road. Nola gives Philadelphia a clear pitching edge but it’s probably best to PASS on this line and find value elsewhere.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Holloway has been extremely lucky to post such a low ERA to this point. He had serious control issues in the minors in 2019 (6.3 BB/9) and it doesn’t appear he’s solved them. He has been bailed out so far by a .224 BABIP and no homers allowed.

The Philadelphia bats should have a big day against Holloway and come out on top by at least two runs. Back the PHILLIES -1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Holloway’s weak skills suggest he is a poor bet to hold the Philadelphia offense in check. On the other side, Nola’s 3.97 ERA represents his highest mark since he posted a 4.78 ERA back in 2016.

Nola does get to face an offense that ranks 25th in runs per game on the road. However, the right-hander has been pretty inconsistent lately having allowed 4 or more ER in four of his last nine starts. The Phillies will get most of the job done, but Miami should also do their part in pushing this total OVER 8.5 (-105).

 

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (33-44) travel to the City of Brotherly Love Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (36-40) at Citizens Bank Park. Game 1’s first pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Marlins lead 4-3.

LHP Trevor Rogers is on the hill for the Marlins. Rogers is 7-4 with a 2.08 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 15 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Wednesday vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
  • Rogers is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate in two starts vs. the Phillies this season.
    • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 60 at-bats with a .283/.348/.500 slash line, 17/5 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.

RHP Vince Velasquez is Philly’s projected starter. Velasquez is 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA (57 IP, 30 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 11 starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Philly’s 13-12 loss to the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
  • Velasquez picked up a win earlier this season vs. the Phillies (May 25) with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K in a 2-0 victory.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 104 at-bats with a .308/.385/.452 slash line, 31/11 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:29 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the MARLINS (-120) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in the pitching matchup and these lineups are neck-and-neck in WAR this month.

Rogers has better basic pitching numbers vs. Philly this season than Velasquez does against Miami. In Rogers’ two starts vs. the Phillies this season, he had a 60.0% groundball rate and a 26.7% hard-hit rate.

Velasquez had a very fortunate .231 BAbip in his first start against the Marlins this season as it was his fourth-lowest swinging-strike rate and third-worst contact rate of any outing this year.

Velasquez grades in the 36th percentile of hard-hit rate, 20th percentile in exit velocity, eighth percentile in chase rate, 11th percentile in BB% and 31st percentile in expected wOBA.

Moreover, Velasquez hasn’t pitched past the 6th inning in any start this season and Philly’s bullpen has the third-worst WAR in the MLB and by far the most blown saves.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Philly has the best run line record as a home underdog (10-2 ATS) with a plus-1.8 run line margin and Miami is 2-5 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-2.4 run line margin.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a quarter unit only because I prefer Miami outright than the total in Marlins-Phillies.

However, both starters have solid pitching peripherals vs. their respective opponents, the Under has cashed in five of the past six Marlins-Phillies meetings and these teams have a combined 11-15 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (19-23) and Philadelphia Phillies (22-21) split the first two games of a three-game set. They will finish off the series Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET in Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 51 IP over nine starts.

Alcantara had allowed 2 ER or less in four straight until his last outing when the Los Angeles Dodgers got to him for 8 ER in just 1 1/3 IP.

In three career starts at Citizens Bank Park, he has put up a 1.33 ERA and 18/7 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP.

RHP Vincent Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He has made eight appearances (five starts), and is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 in 29 1/3 IP.

Velasquez has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last three starts (all on solo HR), with a 19/8 K/BB in 17 IP in that span.

Dating back to 2019, in his last five starts against Miami, Velasquez has put up an ugly 11.94 ERA with five homers allowed in 17 1/3 innings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+155) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies have fared well at home this season, with a 14-7 record. But the Marlins have a slightly better run differential (+2 vs -4) and the clear pitching edge in this contest.

Velasquez has been extremely lucky, benefiting from both a .231 BAbip and 92.9% left-on-base percentage. His BB/9 is 5th highest in the league among starters, and it’s only a matter of time before his ERA shoots up. That may start tonight, so take the MARLINS (+100).

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Velasquez has lowered his ERA by almost two runs from last year’s mark, but his skills aren’t any better. He’s walking more batters and allowing a lot of hard contact, leading to seven home runs against him in 25 1/3 IP in his last five starts.

Alcantara had a rough outing last time out, but his skills to this point are better than ever. There is value in MARLINS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

Miami should put some runs on the board in this one, but this is not an offense that has a lot of explosive games. This game is likely to end up right around the total, and the smart move is to PASS.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]