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The Miami Marlins (73-68) will play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (77-63) on Saturday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 6-5
The Marlins edged out the Phillies 3-2 on Friday in the series opener. OF Jesus Sanchez delivered a 2-run homer as a pinch hitter in the 6th inning to tie the game and C Jacob Stallings smacked a solo shot in the 7th frame for the win. Miami has won 7 of its last 8 games and is 4 1/2 games behind Philadelphia for 2nd place in the NL East and is a half-game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final NL Wild card.
Phillies SS Trea Turner continues to impress as he went yard for his 8th home run in his last 8 games. Philadelphia is 5-5 in its last 10 contests and currently holds the top Wild Card spot in the NL.
Marlins at Phillies projected starters
RHP Johnny Cueto vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Cueto (1-3, 5.54 ERA) makes his 8th start and 9th appearance. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 37 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 11-5 road win vs. Washington Nationals last Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 1-0, 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Career vs. Phillies: 2-6, 5.29 ERA (83 1/3 IP, 49 ER) over 14 starts
Nola (12-9, 4.55 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 172 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 7-5 road defeat vs. Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 6-3, 3.17 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 27 ER) across 12 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 5-10, 3.43 ERA (139 IP, 53 ER) over 22 starts
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Marlins at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-120) | Phillies -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Marlins 4
Moneyline
While the Phillies are expected to secure the win at home on Saturday, I’ll PASS on their moneyline at nearly -200 odds. Look to the spread and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
MARLINS +1.5 (-120) is the play in this divisional showdown as Cueto and Nola have both been shaky this season. The Marlins have either won or lost by a single run in 7 of their 11 meetings against the Phillies this season.
Over/Under
UNDER 9.5 (-120) is the lean in this contest as Nola has performed much better at home this season (3.17 ERA at home, 5.66 ERA on the road). The Under is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these clubs this season.
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