The Cincinnati Reds (45-41) and Milwaukee Brewers (52-36) close the first half of the season with a four-game series Thursday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Reds lead 5-4
Cincinnati rebounded with a 5-2 victory at the Kansas City Royals Thursday after blowing a 5-run lead in a 7-6 walk-off loss Wednesday. The Reds took 2 of 3 at K.C. and have won 6 of their last 7.
Milwaukee split a doubleheader at the New York Mets Thursday prevailing 5-0 in the nightcap. The Brewers lost the series 2-1 and have dropped 3 of 4 after running off 11 consecutive victories to build a nice lead atop the NL Central Division.
RHP Tyler Mahle is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds in the series opener. He is 7-3 with a 3.63 ERA (89 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 17 starts this season.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 7 K in 3-2 home win vs. Chicago Cubs Saturday
- 2021 vs. Brewers: 1-0 in 1 road start, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 2-1 victory June 16
- Career vs. Brewers: 1-2, 5.04 ERA (25 IP, 14 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 14.0 K/9 in 5 starts
RHP Adrian Houser is expected to start for the Brew Crew. He is 5-5 with a 3.94 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 15 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-2 victory at Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2021 vs. Reds: 1-1, 6.75 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 7 BB, 8 K in 2 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 1-3, 5.97 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 6 starts and 3 bullpen outings
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Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Brewers 3, Reds 2
Money line (ML)
MILWAUKEE (-115) is the way to go. The Brewers will look to avenge a 3-game sweep by the visiting Reds June 14-16.
While the Reds have the better starting pitcher, their bullpen’s 5.19 ERA ranks 29th (out of 30 teams) in the majors. The Brewers are 10th at 3.82.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. Milwaukee owns the second-best ATS record in the NL, but the +1.5 (-190) price is too expensive.
Let’s just ride with the Brewers ML play.
ATS records: Reds 39-47 | Brewers 49-39
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 7.5 (+100) is worth a QUARTER-UNIT wager.
While the Reds are one of the better Over teams in the league, they’re 1-6 O/U in their last 7 games and 3-11 O/U in their last 14.
The O/U is 4-4-1 in the 9 head-to-head meetings this season.
O/U records: Reds 46-37-3 | Brewers 42-41-4
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