Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The AL East-leading Boston Red Sox (44-30) and second-place Tampa Bay Rays (44-31) play the rubber match of their three-game series Thursday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Red Sox lead 4-1

The Rays snapped a seven-game skid Wednesday with an 8-2 victory, their first against the BoSox this season. Boston took Tuesday’s opener 9-5 in 11 innings.

RHP Nick Pivetta is projected to start the finale for Boston. He is 6-3 with a 4.36 ERA (74 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 14 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-3 loss at Kansas City Royals Friday
  • Career vs. Rays: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (5 IP, 0 ER), 2 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 1 start, an 11-2 victory at Fenway Park April 5

RHP Michael Wacha is expected to start for Tampa Bay. He is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 across 8 starts and 4 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 5-1 setback at Seattle Mariners Friday
  • 2021 as starter: 1-2, 4.22 ERA (32 IP, 15 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 6.2 K/9
  • Career vs. Red Sox (regular season): 1-1, 4.50 ERA (10 IP, 5 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 2 starts

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Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Rays -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-175) | Rays -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Rays 7, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The RAYS (-135) are the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

Mostly utilizing Wacha in an opener role recently, Tampa Bay is 4-1 in his last 5 starts.

Boston has lost 3 of Pivetta’s last 4 starts.

There’s also a bit of excitement on the Tampa Bay side with the recent call-up of top prospect SS Wander Franco. The 20-year-old Dominican went 2-for-4 with a homer, double and 3 RBIs in his MLB debut Tuesday but was 0-for-3 with a run and two walks Wednesday.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Back the RAYS -1.5 (+145) with a QUARTER-UNIT wager.

While Boston’s 30 losses are tied for the second fewest in the AL, 24 of those defeats have been by 2 or more runs.

Plus, the Rays have the second-best ATS record in the majors at 45-30. The reason for the small bet is because the Red Sox are fifth at 41-33.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 9 (-110) is the way to go. The last 8 Boston-Tampa Bay meetings cashed Over tickets, though the opener of this series needed extra innings.

O/U records: Red Sox 36-37-1 | Rays 42-30-3

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 61-70-2 19-28-1 -15.4475
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 167-157-3 70-70-1 -0.3375
*SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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