Tag: Jeff Wilson

The NFL blew up this week with a record amount of trades. In years past, there were usually two or three trades of meaningless players as teams just swapped past mistakes or tried to get a seventh-round pick for a player they had no intention of keeping the next season.

The beautiful part about a trade in Week 8 is that it resets the depth charts for both the losing and winning teams involved in the transaction. Change means opportunity. Popular opinion on players that change teams in the off-season can be more inaccurate because they are in a new environment with all new teammates and coaches. It is a good thing – it gives fresh starts for the traded player and a bump up for whatever player backed him up on his old team.

This week I am very interested in what will happen for both sides of the more fantasy-related trades.

1.) Jeff Wilson to Miami –  This shouldn’t take any time to become whatever the sharing ratio will be with Raheem Mostert. Wilson already played under HC Mike McDaniel in San Francisco and adding him to the backfield just recreates what they had in 2020 when the pair were joined by Jerick McKinnon.  Here are the common games that they had that year when Jerick McKinnon was no longer a factor. McDaniel was the run-game coordinator in 2020.

The Dolphins aren’t obligated to use that script, but it was the one  McDaniels wrote two years ago. And both players get injured – neither had a season without missing games. In 2020, it was Mostert playing eight games and Wilson with 11. They shared nearly 50:50 each week. McDaniel handed Elijah Mitchell a true workhorse share of carries when he was healthy last year, but that was out of character. There’s a reason why the 49ers haven’t produced a 1,000-yard rusher since Frank Gore (2014). The Dolphins’ fantasy playoff weeks face stout defenses, but four of the next five go against the weaker defenses.  Until they play any different than 2020, they have to be considered just a split committee. The 30-year-old Mostert is also due for an injury based on years past.

Wilson was also available because Elijah Mitchell is coming off injured reserve soon. The addition of Christian McCaffrey slashes maybe all fantasy value from Mitchell, but it will be interesting to see what the backfield split will become.

2.) T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota – He already topped out in Detroit in 2020 when he caught 67 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns. That year, the only receiver of any note was Marvin Jones; no other receiver had more than 46 catches. Hockenson declined in these last two seasons as the Lions picked up wide receivers that became the basis of the passing game. New HC Kevin O’Connell was the offensive coordinator for the Rams the last two years, and his best tight end was Tyler Higbee, who never ranked higher than No. 13.

The Vikings lost Irv Smith for a month or more to a high-ankle sprain, so Hockenson slides in as the No. 1 TE for the Vikings. But his role was limited to four catches and light yardage per week. Hockenson lost value in Detroit when they were no longer forced to throw to him as much. He’s likely to remain only a moderate contributor and shouldn’t take away much from the rest of the receivers.

3.)  Chase Claypool to Chicago – This trade could end up in many different places. First, his departure from the Steelers means that the rookie George Pickens has clear sailing to claim the No. 1 wideout, at least eventually, if not very soon. He is already nipping at the heels of Diontae Johnson and has matched him for the last two weeks. The Steelers already love Pat Freiermuth, and dropping Claypool just boosts the workload for the three other main receivers.

At the Bears? That depends. It is easy enough to assume that Claypool’s career just took a giant step backward, joining the No. 31 set of wideouts in the NFL. In fairness, aside from Darnell Mooney, the Bears’ entire wide receiver corps is compromised of players that would probably never see a snap on any other team. Adding Claypool helps out Mooney significantly, as there wasn’t any other receivers demanding attention from the opposing secondary. And Justin Fields has a strong arm.

Claypool played with the declining passing of Ben Roethlisberger and Kenny Pickett hasn’t thrown many deep passes so far. Claypool won’t see the higher volume that fantasy owners prefer, but he’ll upgrade his 9.7-yard-average catch. The only question is how many targets he’ll be thrown. This trade may take some time to see an optimal Chase, but it is worth sticking Claypool on the back half of a fantasy roster to see what happens.

4.) Nyheim Hines to Buffalo – The Bills moved up to draft James Cook with a second-round pick, so it seems like half of a season isn’t that long to be pushing him down the depth chart. And swapping out Zack Moss in the trade feels more like a throw-in. But Hines (5-9, 196 pounds) and Devin Singletary (5-7. 203 pounds) are similar backs. Singletary is a free agent next year and Hines is signed through 2024, but there is an out in his contract after this year. The move just traded Moss for a more reliable back with more speed.

The expectation is that Hines is involved but Singletary remains the primary back. Even as early as this week, we should get an indication of how much the Bills intend to use Hines who can keep Singletary healthier for the playoffs. This has to be a hit for Singletary’s workload and he’s rarely given more than ten carries and a few catches in games anyway. And this is another sign that the Bills are a passing team with not much use for a heavy-weight pounder for short yardage or goal line work, because that already taken care of by Josh Allen.

5.)   Chase Edmonds to Denver – On the plus, Edmonds is not the primary running back, so he won’t have to worry about another back stealing his spot like the last two teams. In Broncos terms, this is adding another weapon to the backfield that can be used differently than Melvin Gordon or Latavius Murray. In fantasy terms, the fantasy outlook for the other two backs just took another step down. Gordon is the primary back according to HC Nathaniel Hackett, even though Murray out-carried him 14 to 9 last week in Jacksonville. The addition of Edmonds can only further decrease either backs’ workload.

The trade seems odd since the 3-5 Broncos are not one piece away from being a contender, and if they were, it probably wouldn’t be a back that flopped in Arizona and Miami, and that gained just 2.9 yards per carry this season.  But this is not the oddest happenings in Denver. The backfield split already makes Gordon and Murray as marginal fantasy plays. If Edmonds sees more than a few touches, there may not be any reliable fantasy value from the Denver backfield.

6.)  Zack Moss to the Colts – The Bills gave up on Moss after three seasons and shipped him to the Colts who had just traded away Nyheim Hines. That transaction left just Deon Jackson as the backup for Jonathan Taylor. The net to the Colts is a downgrade in their backfield that is shockingly less effective than in 2021 when Taylor led the league in rushing. Hines was talked up by HC Frank Reich this summer as needing to be used more often as he was in 2020 when he caught 63 passes.

Moss has never caught more than 23 passes in any season and he is a bigger back than Hines. The 3-4-1 Colts are on a two-game losing streak and losing Hines for Moss will do nothing to turn that around. The interesting aspect to the trade isn’t Moss, it is Deon Jackson who already is the direct backup for Taylor. And where those four or five passes that once went to Hines will be headed now. Making this week even more interesting is that Jonathan Taylor reaggravated his ankle injury last Sunday and hasn’t practiced this week.