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A trio of players every gamer should be targeting in their fantasy drafts.
Everyone has different opinions on where to rank players, whether they believe the ranking is too high or too low. We’ve identified three players that you want to have at all costs as mid- to late-round bargains this year.
The only question you have to determine is when do you feel comfortable pulling the trigger to land these three candidate players? Every round they remain on the board makes them bigger value picks.
What is Williams’ worth knowing he’ll miss at least six games?
When the Detroit Lions selected wide receiver Jameson Williams with the 12th overall pick in last year’s draft, it came with the understanding that he’d contribute little, if at all, as a rookie, after suffering a torn ACL during the National Championship Game on Jan. 10, 2022. Williams would ultimately debut in Week 13 and appear in six games for Detroit, logging a total of 78 snaps. He was targeted nine times and finished his rookie season with one reception, a 41-yard touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings.
With the Lions finishing at 9-8, the franchise’s first winning season since 2017, excitement was high for the young team to take the next step in 2023. That feeling certainly extended to Williams, whose deep speed looks like the perfect complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has established himself as one of the top young possession receivers in the league. Unfortunately, Lions fans and fantasy owners are going to have to wait a little extra time to see that duo in action.
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That’s because on April 22, the NFL suspended five players for violating the league’s gambling policy, four of whom were Lions. That included Williams, who drew a six-game ban since he did not bet on NFL games. While the duration of the suspension might qualify as a silver lining, it still means Detroit will get what amounts to 23 games of nothing to begin the first-rounder’s career. While Williams will take part in training camp and the preseason, he’ll be barred from team facilities starting in Week 1.
In Williams’ absence, the team will look to veterans Josh Reynolds (38-479-3) and Marvin Jones (46-529-3 w/ JAX) to fill the void. DJ Chark Jr., who averaged a team-high 16.7 yards per reception in 2022, signed with the Carolina Panthers during the offseason after one year in Motown. Reynolds has played multiple seasons with QB Jared Goff, both in LA and here, but he was disappointing last season. Jones had some good years with the Lions, but he’s 33 and on the downside of his career. Neither is a threat to hold Williams back when he’s ready to return.
As such, once Williams’ suspension is completed, he should immediately slide into the starting lineup alongside St. Brown. While it figures to take a little time to shake off the rust of scarcely playing in almost two years as well as develop chemistry with Goff, the Alabama product has talent and upside that nobody else on the roster can compete with.
Best-case scenario, you’ll be getting 11 games from Williams, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll be a consistent producer right off the bat after essentially redshirting his first season. His ability to get deep in an offense that finished fourth in yardage and fifth in scoring (26.6 points per game) in 2022 creates some interesting upside, though, making Williams an ideal late-round lottery ticket to stash on your bench as a WR5 or WR6.
Can the Motor City Kitties keep their momentum going vs. the incoming Norsemen?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
Tracking my predictions: 3-9-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
When it rains, it pours … apparently even inside of a dome.
Last week, New York Jets wideout Elijah Moore was featured in this spot, and much of the reason was due to the matchup itself, but the much-needed targets instead went to Corey Davis as he posted his strongest day since Week 4. Moore, on the other hand, and quarterback Mike White weren’t in sync, and the young wideout returned to obscurity.
That’s another scenario where I was on the right track but it didn’t pan out as expected. I’m inching closer to renaming this column “Horseshoes and Hand Grenades” by the day.
We’re picking on the Vikings again in Week 14 by siding with a divisional foe against a shaky pass defense. Detroit’s offense has been on the upswing of late, and one thing Minnesota does fairly well is stop running backs, so anticipating Goff being asked to sling it more than usual is a reasonable train of thought. Only six defenses have given up fewer rushing yards per to the position on the year, and Detroit may find less room than usual to get the ground game going.
Minnesota has allowed quarterbacks to average 24 fantasy points per game in 2022 as the fourth-weakest defense of the position. Even the likes of Mike White and Mac Jones exceeded that mark vs. the Vikings in the last two games. In the past five games, the Vikings haven’t improved, and just Tennessee has allowed more yards per game through the air. Some of that is due to the Vikings being able to put opponents into holes on the scoreboard, emphasizing a need to heave the ball to keep pace with this prolific offense.
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A good portion of it is due to the Vikings being weak in the defensive backfield. Detroit has the receiving outlets to do the requisite damage to keep Goff fantasy-relevant one more week, featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and DJ Chark Jr. Rookie first-rounder Jameson Williams quietly made his debut in Week 13, and no one should discount peripheral outlets in Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond if Goff is forced to throw in 40-plus times.
The former Ram has tossed multiple TDs in three of the last five games and has at least 20 fantasy points in consecutive outings. Back in the Week 3 meeting vs. the Vikes, Goff threw for 277 yards, one TD and a pick. This go-around, look for a similar game scrip to develop.
Six teams on bye make Goff a much more palatable play, but gamers willing to take the plunge will be rewarded with a strong QB1 finish.
My projection: 28-of-44, 311 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 3 rushing yards (22.85 fantasy points)
The most important risers and fallers in fantasy football.
One of the aspects of fantasy football that never fails to amaze me is when fantasy owners don’t take into account bye weeks. Week 5 will be the last time in a long time that every player on most rosters will be available.
Injuries do their part to gut fantasy rosters, so players who had no draft-day intention of being in the starting lineup are there more weeks than not. Bye weeks are a meaningless gutting – those guys are healthy, just not playing.
There will be eight weeks in which at least two and as many as six teams will be on bye. If you’re a seasoned fantasy player, you probably paid attention to the bye weeks as you were assembling a draft/auction roster, but a lot has happened since then.
A week from now it will dawn on some casual players that the bye weeks have started. You can be ahead of that curve and prepare for it now. If you see a week that will be rough, make a trade to diversify your roster. There will be someone in your league who effectively forfeits a week because too many key players are on their bye. Don’t let that be you.
Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Football Market Report:
Following a strong close to 2021, can St. Brown pick up where he left off?
Of the 35 receivers selected during the 2021 NFL Draft, only one (Miami Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle) caught more passes as a rookie than Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown — and the USC product was taken 106 spots after Waddle. St. Brown also finished third in receiving yards, again behind Waddle and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase, and tied for third in receiving touchdowns. There’s no way to view his 90-912-5 showing as anything other than an unqualified success.
While it’s tempting to expect second-year players to build on their debut campaign, St. Brown shouldn’t be viewed as a lock to exceed (or even match) his rookie numbers. For starters, it’s important to keep in mind just how much of his production came during the season’s final six weeks. During that stretch, he was targeted 67 times and accounted for 51 receptions, 560 yards, and five touchdowns. That means in his first 11 games, St. Brown posted a 39-352-0 line.
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You can’t simply chalk up his increased role to improved chemistry with quarterback Jared Goff, either, as St. Brown’s usage exploded when tight end T.J. Hockenson was lost for the season with a thumb injury. Hockenson is fully healthy now, and he does much of his work in those same underneath and intermediate areas as St. Brown.
Detroit has added more talent to the receiving corps, drafting Alabama’s Jameson Williams (knee) in the first round and signing veteran DJ Chark Jr. in free agency. They also picked up Josh Reynolds off waivers last November, and he returns with the benefit of a full offseason to learn the offense to go with his preexisting chemistry with Goff stemming from their time with the Los Angeles Rams. Running back D’Andre Swift will get his fair share of targets, too.
It’s unknown when Williams will make his NFL debut as he’s currently working his way back from a torn ACL suffered in January, but once he does the Lions will suddenly have a deep, talented group of pass catchers — something that wasn’t even close to true coming into 2021, when you could make a strong case that Detroit had the worst group of wideouts in the NFL.
So, where does all that leave St. Brown? It’s hard to say. Hockenson seems the biggest threat to the second-year receiver’s usage as both project as possession options. Then again, Hockenson and Chark have had trouble staying healthy, and Williams’ return date is unknown.
Still, viewing St. Brown as more than a midrange WR3 seems a bit aggressive, even for PPR leagues. He also has the look of a possible “sell high” candidate early on as he’s someone whose role may decrease as the season wears on. Expect fewer receptions, which isn’t ever a great scenario for a receiver whose entire worth is based on volume.
A retooled receiving corps leaves plenty of unanswered fantasy questions heading into training camp.
Heading into last season, the Detroit Lions had arguably the saddest collection of talent at the receiver position in the NFL with wide receivers Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus, and Tyrell Williams (currently a free agent) atop the depth chart.
Much has changed since then. Unheralded fourth-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown put together a strong rookie campaign, emerging as a reliable target for quarterback Jared Goff, and Josh Reynolds arrived via the waiver wire, reuniting him with Goff from their days together with the Los Angeles Rams.
This offseason has brought even more reinforcements, highlighted by the selection of Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams (knee) with the 12th overall selection — that’s the earliest the Lions have drafted a wideout since Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson in 2007. Detroit also took a one-year flier on former Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver DJ Chark Jr., who had a 1,000-yard season in 2019 but is coming off a fractured ankle that limited him to four games this past year.
In what must be considered something of a surprise, Goff will again steer the ship in 2022 as the Lions chose to sit out one of the busiest offseasons in league annals in terms of quarterback movement, despite not having an obvious heir apparent at the position. While Goff had some good years in LA, much of that credit has been given to Rams head coach Sean McVay, and the team’s decision to move on from Goff leading to an immediate championship certainly supports that statement.
Still, Goff is an experienced pro who shouldn’t hold the offense back too much. On paper, this looks like the finest collection of weapons he’s had since 2018 when the offense included Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods (Tennessee Titans), Brandin Cooks (Houston Texans), and running back Todd Gurley (free agent).
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Which players are on the rise and who’s taking a midseason tumble?
In many sports, the arrival of the trade deadline is something that is looked forward to as the also-rans in any given season are given the opportunity to build for the future by unloading talented veterans to a contending team.
It typically isn’t that way in the NFL, where there are always rumors of big names trading places, but it rarely happens. The trade deadline is 4 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Nov. 2, and there will be a flurry of rumors of players moving to new teams, but too often the rumors don’t become reality.
For fantasy owners, this can be an important time if you have any of the players on the trade block. Owners of Zach Ertz are elated that he finally got out of Philly after months of contention and goes to Arizona – a high-octane offense in need of a playmaking tight end.
Some players have been disappointments, mired on fantasy benches or a “silk hat on a pig” type (see Brandin Cooks). The deadline will come and go as it always does, but will this year be the year where things are different and there are a flurry of moves? Don’t hold your breath.
Here is the Week 9 Fantasy Football Market Report:
It’s difficult to overly excited about anyone from the Jets, but Carter has started making a case for himself to be considered. He is the Jets’ leading rusher and has more than twice as many carries as anyone on the team. He has double-digit attempts in each of the last four games and has scored three touchdowns in that span. He is also the team’s leading receiver with 26 receptions – 17 of those (and 162 of his 226 receiving yards) coming in the last two games. He has emerged as a strong daily fantasy player and is making it more difficult to keep out of league lineups.
It has taken a while for Pittman and Carson Wentz to get on the same page, but Indy started winning when Pittman became the primary focus of the passing offense. In his last four games, Pittman has scored four touchdowns and posted yardage of 86, 89 and 105. He has 594 receiving yards and nobody else on the team has more than 265. He has quietly asserted himself as the go-to receiver in this offense and is still being viewed as a fantasy bargain who has to prove it. That won’t last much longer. He’s already proved it.
From the day Christian McCaffrey went down in Week 3, the majority of the rushing workload has fallen on Hubbard. In his last four games, he has had a pair of games with 24 rushing attempts (gaining 101 and 82 yards, respectively) and has scored two touchdowns in the last three games. With McCaffrey expected to return, Hubbard’s value may plummet, but he has earned the opportunity to be more than just a McCaffrey handcuff. If CMC goes down again (he missed time due to three injuries last year), you could have a fantasy starter on your hands.
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This may be a little more projecting that anything based on a breakout performance, but what has always held Goedert down was sharing time with Zach Ertz. When Ertz was injured in the past is when Goedert posted his most impressive numbers. In the five games he played prior to the Ertz trade, he was averaging three catches and 43 yards. In the two games since the trade, he has nine catches for 142 yards, including his biggest yardage games of the season (70 and 72 yards). While he isn’t a lock to be a fantasy stud suddenly, his trajectory is pointing strongly up with his primary competition out of the picture.
Browns fans didn’t know what to make of their run game when both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were out in Week 7 against Denver. The only person who seemed unfazed was head coach Kevin Stefanski, who said Johnson could get the job done. All he did in his first start was rush 22 times for 146 yards and a touchdown. Chubb came back last week and Johnson’s production took a dip. He rushed just four times for 22 yards in Cleveland’s loss to Pittsburgh, but he scored another touchdown. With Hunt expected to be out four to six weeks, Johnson is going to have the opportunity to fill his role in the offense, which could mean double-digit carries and chances in the screen game. He’s a reach, but one that could be dividends for a team in need if he does fill Hunt’s role in the offense.
Early in the season, it looked as though the Matthew Stafford might not be as lopsided as it appeared. In his first two games (against San Francisco and Green Bay), Goff threw for 584 yards and five touchdowns. It’s been all downhill in the six games since. He has thrown for less than 225 yards (with his team behind in most if not all of them for considerable stretches of time) four times and has just three TD passes in those six games – including just one in his last four games. He brings nothing as a rusher and has brought next to nothing as a passer. The Lions are in line for the No. 1 overall pick as the lone winless team in the league and that player will likely be Goff’s replacement.
The Patriots made a big splash in free agency by signing the two hottest tight ends – Smith and Hunter Henry. Both got off to brutal starts, but Henry has turned his fantasy season around, scoring four touchdowns in his last five games. The same can’t be said for Smith. Through eight games, he is averaging less than 24 receiving yards a game and has just one touchdown catch. For a guy who blew up for the Titans last year just in time to make millions, he has been unqualified bust for the Patriots and has rendered himself almost unplayable.
This one has been frustrating for owners of both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Mos has scattered four touchdowns in the first half of the season, but is averaging just 3.7 yards a carries with his worst two weekly averages coming in the last two weeks against teams that have struggled to stop the run (Tennessee and Miami). Singletary is averaging 5.1 yards a carry but hasn’t had more rushes than Moss since Week 2 and has a total of 18 carries in the last three games. With neither being a threat as receivers, it has become impossible to play either of them and expect production.
Allen is one of the rare players who historically has himself on both the Risers and Fallers list in the same season. The problem with Allen is consistency from a fantasy perspective. In seven games, he has scored just two touchdowns (one on Sunday), but after hitting 100 yards in each of his first two games, he hasn’t topped 77 yards in the five games since and has three games with 50 or fewer receiving yards in three of those. It’s impossible to recommend benching Allen, because he came to fantasy rosters to start every week and you get the feeling he’s going to have another one of his three- or four-game streaks where he plays lights out and scores a handful of touchdowns. It’s what Allen does.
The best thing that happened to fantasy owners with Ebron is that he was inactive Sunday with a hamstring injury and couldn’t be played. That’s the good news. The bad news is that a player who has posted some monster weeks over the years is a complete afterthought in this offense. Fellow Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth had as many receptions (seven) in Pittsburgh’s Week 7 game with Seattle than Ebron has had in the six games he has played. The numbers are staggeringly bad – seven catches for 47 yards and no touchdowns. The Steelers may try to move him at the trade deadline, but with those numbers who wants him?
