The data wizards of FiveThirtyEight don’t just see the Boston Celtics as title favorites, they also consider Jayson Tatum the best player of the postseason so far.
The love affair with the Boston Celtics continues at FiveThirtyEight as the data wizards at the site who projected the Celtics the most likely winner of the 2020 NBA Championship consider All-Star swingman Jayson Tatum the best postseason player in the league.
After Boston dispatched the Philadelphia 76ers in just four games, FiveThirtyEight moved the Celtics into their slot for the most likely team to hang a banner this season.
The sweep, the first between the two teams, evidently impressed the data scientists behind the rankings.
And given no player has been more important to the Celtics’ success in the postseason to date than Tatum, it makes sense that FiveThirtyEight posits the Duke product as the best player in the league since the regular season ended.
Currently perched ahead of luminaries like Donnie Mitchell of the Utah Jazz, former Celtic Marcus Morris Sr.(now with the Los Angeles Clippers), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Toronto Raptors’ Fred Van Vleet to round out the top five in that order, Tatum is well ahead of the rest of the pack.
The St. Louis native’s overall RAPTOR and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) scores are considerably higher than his peers on this list, further cementing the third-year forward’s status as a first-tier star in the league.
His stardom will be put to the test by the league’s second-best defense when he and Boston face Toronto this Thursday.
But you have to like his odds, considering everything.
After their strong series against the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the playoffs, the Boston Celtics now have the top title odds to FiveThirtyEight.
The Boston Celtics now sit squarely atop the projections by data wizards FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 NBA title odds after their sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers.
Previously — and perhaps in many eyes, prematurely — ranked second on this list of champion aspirants, Boston’s dominant performance in their first round series against the Sixers seems to have made quite the impression.
Combining with some less-than-convincing outings by their Western Conference peers, FiveThirtyEight data scientists now lean to the green as the most likely champions of the Disney bubble restart.
They are projected to possess a 21% chance of winning the Finals, and a 39% shot at coming out of the East to do it, followed by the Houston Rockets, who garnered an 18% chance at emerging as the champs.
The Los Angeles Clippers are now in third place with 17% title odds, and Lakers tie them at that number with slightly lower odds to make their conference finals, and the Milwaukee Bucks round out the top five with a 10% chance at winning it all.
How the Celtics respond in their early games with the Toronto Raptors — their second-round opponents — will dictate how long Boston remains in pole position, with the defending champs likely the first real test of the Celtics postseason mettle.
The data scientists at FiveThirtyEight grant the Boston Celtics the league’s second-best 2020 NBA title odds after Wednesday’s blowout of the Sixers.
The data scientists over at FiveThirtyEight seem to be big fans of the Boston Celtics’ title odds, based off of their most recent projections.
In their odds posted on Thursday, August 20th, FiveThirtyEight projects the Celtics to possess the NBA’s second-best odds to win it all in the 2020 NBA Finals.
You read that right, second-best to win it all.
FiveThirtyEight updates their projections after every day’s slate of games, using their RAPTOR player ratings system to divine who has the best odds to advance towards winning the 2020 NBA Championship.
The Celtics trail only the Los Angeles Clippers, who FiveThirtyEight grants a 34 % chance of making the NBA Finals, and a 23 % shot at winning it all.
Working on something for FiveThirtyEight's title projections, and noticed they are very quietly throwing shade at Rajon Rondo (presumably) — all the Tommy points to anyone who can see what I am talking about. pic.twitter.com/fGICyAv7cj
Boston, on the other hand, has been deemed to have a 38 % shot at making the Finals in the less-competitive East Playoffs, but a 19 % chance at winning Banner 18.
They are trailed by the Los Angeles Lakers, who presumably saw their title odds take a hit with the loss to the Portland Trail Blazers (as an aside, note their full-strength rating goes down with the presumed return of former Celtic Rajon Rondo), and the Milwaukee Bucks don’t even make the top four after dropping their first game to the Orlando Magic.
There’s plenty of reasons to doubt these projections so early into the postseason, but it’s very interesting to see the odds experts at FiveThirtyEight ranking Boston so highly.
Let’s hope it doesn’t get to their heads, should they see it.
Could the Oklahoma City Thunder continue to beat expectations and make a deep playoff run? FiveThiryEight thinks there’s a chance.
The Oklahoma City Thunder weren’t even supposed to make the playoffs. Preseason odds makers put the over-under on wins at 32.5. They got in anyway.
Could they continue to surpass expectations in the playoffs? FiveThirtyEight thinks they have a chance.
The website named the Thunder as one of six teams around the league that had a chance to be “party crashers” in the conference finals.
Reporter Jared Dubin wrote:
What makes it all the more remarkable is that the Thunder began the season 6-11, only to rip off a 34-13 stretch (a 60-win pace) the rest of the way. Throw in the fact that they’re entering the bubble as one of the few teams that has yet to confirm a positive coronavirus test, and things would seem to be looking up for them.
With that said, the website pointed out difficulties the Thunder will face.
Oklahoma City’s schedule is ninth-toughest in the bubble, and guard Dennis Schroder will leave in August for the birth of his child.
Additionally, the Thunder’s record against teams above .500 is second-worst of any team currently in a Western Conference playoff position, and FiveThirtyEight finds the team’s record in the clutch “unsustainable.”
Yet that clutch lineup has shown no signs of slipping. Head coach Billy Donovan has preached “togetherness,” which he thinks the team has, and communication, which they certainly have in the form of point guard Chris Paul.
With that three-guard lineup that excelled in the clutch, veterans like Paul, Steven Adams and Danilo Gallinari, and wing depth off the bench, the team and fans are looking much more at how this can work instead of how it can’t.
FiveThirtyEight projected a 1% chance for the Thunder to win the Western Conference and less than 1% to win the Finals.
Michigan State has been named the NCAA Champion in a simulation ran by FiveThirtyEight.
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This might not be a huge consolation to Spartan fans, but Michigan State continues to dominate in simulated brackets, being named the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Champion by FiveThirtyEight and their simulation. According to their process, MSU knocked off Kansas by 1-point in a thrilling NCAA Championship game.
While this is certainly a fun little quarantine tidbit for fans to laugh about, it also carries with it quite a bit of heartbreak for fans who watched Michigan State start the season as the presumptive favorite, nearly fall out of relevance, then storm back at the end of the season, winning partial ownership of the Big Ten Championship while looking to be in top form heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Here is the process they took, according to FiveThirtyEight:
“Though there are no actual games to be played, FiveThirtyEight is still taking a shot at a little March Madness. We built an NCAA Tournament bracket, using ESPN’s Bracketology, and we’re simulating the results of each game by using a simple “100-sided dice roll” against our forecast probabilities. We’ve played out our first and second rounds, the Sweet 16, the Elite Eight and the Final Four; here’s how the title game might have gone down.”
The Vikings now have a 97 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The Vikings took care of business and beat the Chargers on Sunday, improving to 10-4 on the season.
And in other good news for Vikings fans, the Cowboys beat the Rams in Dallas. The Rams fell to 8-6, now a full two games back from the Vikings.
Per FiveThirtyEight, the Vikings now have a 97 percent chance to make the playoffs.
In order for the Vikings not to make the playoffs, they’d have to lose out and the Rams would have to win out against the 49ers and Cardinals.
Minnesota’s win also knocked the Bears out of playoff contention.
As far as the NFC North is concerned, the Packers beat the Bears to improve to 11-3. This gives the Packers a 91 percent chance to win the division.
If the Vikings win out (vs. Green Bay in Week 16 and vs. Chicago in Week 17) and the Packers lose out (@Minnesota in Week 16 and @ Detroit in Week 17), Minnesota will win the NFC North.
If the season ended today, the Vikings would be the sixth seed in the NFC and would play the No. 3 Saints in the wild card round of the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills playoff odds following win over Cowboys.
The Bills’ win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving was a big win.
Of course, it was on the national stage. That’s big.
But in regard to the team’s playoff chances, it was massive as well.
According to the folks at FiveThirtyEight, the Bills have a 94 percent chance of making the playoffs now that the team has a 9-3 record. The analytics outlet gives only the Chiefs, Patriots and Chiefs better odds to make the playoffs in the AFC.
But FiveThirtyEight isn’t alone in their big percentages. ESPN and the New York Times playoff machine also have the Bills with an above 90 percent chance of making the playoffs. ESPN and the New York Times current give the Bills a 96 and 93 percent odds at making the postseason, respectively.
FiveThirtyEight predicts the Buffalo Bills are more than likely to make the postseason heading into Week 12.
FiveThirtyEight predicts the Buffalo Bills are more than likely to make the postseason heading into Week 12.
According to the analytics website, the Bills currently sit with a 71 percent chance to crack the playoffs this season.
Those are the ninth-best odds handed out by FiveThirtyEight, a percentage also shared by the Texans.
Despite those high odds, don’t expect the Bills to win the division. That’s no surprise with the Patriots still in the AFC East, but it’s still a startling drop off.
Of the NFL teams within the 14-best percent chances to make the playoffs via FiveThirtyEight, 12 of them have at least a 37 percent chance to win their respective division. The Raiders clock in at a 15 percent chance at winning the AFC West while Buffalo’s look at the AFC East is at a lowly 2 percent. Their look at winning the Super Bowl is also at a less than 1 percent chance.
In regard to the AFC, the Bills have the fourth-highest percent chances of landing in the playoffs, trailing only the Patriots (99%), Ravens (99%) and Chiefs (92%).
The Cowboys have a path to the playoffs, but first they will need a victory against a Stafford-less Lions team. Is victory a sure thing?
It has been a polarizing season for the Dallas Cowboys, who enter Week 11 with a record of 5-4. At this point a record like that would seem disappointing, and it should be. The team has been a model of inconsistency and that includes the coaching staff. In one game they look like the best offense in the NFC, but in another they are trailing the New York Jets 21-6 at half-time. However, despite what the record suggests the Cowboys are in first place in their division as they are currently 4-0 against division rivals.
The reality of a 5-4 record does not match Super Bowl expectations, but there is still optimism for the team to make a strong playoff push. Hope springs from the MVP-caliber play of quarterback Dak Prescott, who has helped transform the team’s identity with his passing efficiency. Prescott and the team’s passing attack has been among the best in the league and this is how they rank in the 2019 season with some key metrics:
No. 1 in EPA per pass attempt (0.32), per nflscrapR
No. 1 in Success Rate per pass attempt (56%), per nflscrapR
Prescott gets slighted for being on a team that is one win above .500, but he has maintained his elevated level of play throughout the entirety of the season. Here is a chart that demonstrates Prescott’s effectiveness using Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play). EPA measures the value of a given play using down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.
This graph illustrates how Prescott has been far and away the most crucial component in the Cowboys’ offense. His worst game of the season in terms of EPA/play came against the New York Giants in Week 9. Even then his performance was still comparable to the league average.
This chart also accounts for non-QB EPA/play. The differences are drastic, but it stresses just how good Prescott’s season has been.
The Stafford-less Lions
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
In their upcoming Week 11 matchup against the Cowboys the Detroit Lions will be without their starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is unlikely to play after suffering a back injury against the Oakland Raiders in Week 9. His injury has been diagnosed as fractured bones in his back per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
In his place backup-quarterback Jeff Driskel will get the starting nod for the second game in a row. In his first start with the Lions, Driskel was 27-of-46 passing against the Chicago Bears for 269 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a losing effort. He also added 37 yards on five carries.
Overall, his performance was all one could ask of a backup, and Driskel is experienced in this regard. In a similar situation in 2018 he was tasked with filling in for an injured Andy Dalton for the Cincinnati Bengals over a five-game stretch.
Playoff Projections
Week 11 is shaping up to be a meaningful week for the Cowboys. Their odds of winning the division will get a big boost with a win against the Lions and and a Philadelphia Eagles loss against the New England Patriots. According to FiveThirtyEights’ 2019 NFL Predictions a Cowboys win and an Eagles loss on Sunday gives the Cowboys a 60% chance to win the division. However, a Cowboys loss and an Eagles win would drop the team’s playoff odds to a mere 16%.
In preparation for Week 11, Driskel called his upcoming start against the Cowboys, “business as normal”. For the Cowboys this will not be a game to take lightly. The Lions are facing a string of injuries on both sides of the field, one player that is in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s matchup for the Lions is cornerback Darius Slay. Slay has arguably been his team’s best player in the defensive backfield and if he is unable to play then the Cowboys’ passing attack will be heavily favored.
All signs point to the Cowboys coming away with a victory on Sunday, but victory for the team has hardly been a sure thing. If the Cowboys want to prove they are contenders, they will need to produce a convincing win against a weakened Lions team. As the dust settles, a win here would be step one for the team as they get ready for a final playoff push down the stretch.
