Tag: Fantasy Football Week 3

Fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em: Week 3

Check out our starts and sits in fantasy football for Week 3.

With the season in full swing, fantasy football managers enter Week 3 with some crucial start/sit decisions as injuries and performance trends continue to have major impacts on lineups.

Doing start/sit articles can be a little challenging. The players featured on the list below should not be taken as “must starts” or “must sits.” Instead, these are more suggestions on what we believe managers should do with fringe players heading into the weekend. The choice is ultimately up to the manager.

Just because a player is listed as a “start” doesn’t mean he should be put in the lineup over the secure, bona fide studs. Vice versa for the “sits.” If there’s no better option on the waiver wire or the bench, a manager shouldn’t automatically sit the player. That’s why these can be tricky waters to navigate.

Feel free to ask any specific start/sit questions via X, formerly Twitter, (@KevinHickey11) or check out our player projections for Week 2:

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 3

A prime matchup makes this third-year pro a sound start in Week 3.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 3

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-2-0
All-time record: 18-33-3

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55% 74.7%
Grade F C

Last week’s performance by Minnesota Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn is a perfect example of why I decided to add the grading system above. He was projected for 16.6 PPR points and finished at 12.4, narrowly missing the 75 percent threshold (thanks for the wide-open drop, Mr. Osborn). But that doesn’t mean playing him hurt you in any way, so it’s hard to call it a true loss. For the sake of maintaining a baseline, it still gets chalked up as a loss.

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins

Somewhat surprisingly, Williams has dominated the backfield’s carry count 25-to-9 over Samaje Perine. The two have produced nearly identical fantasy results, however, and suffice it to say, the returns haven’t been great. Williams is still trying to regain his form following last year’s torn ACL, and the expectation was he’d be slowly worked back in with Perine garnering the bulk of the early-season workload. It just isn’t been the case, and that’s a great sign for Williams, even if he hasn’t been particularly explosive.

In Week 1, we saw a much closer carry split between Williams and Perine. The former rushed 13 times to the latter’s eight, but Denver leaned on their third-year back a dozen times to the journeyman’s lone carry last weekend. Nonetheless, Perine has maintained a receiving role with four targets in each of the first two games. Williams has averaged 4.5 targets of his own.

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The Broncos don’t want this to turn into a track meet, and keeping Miami’s offense on the sideline as long as possible is the goal. Expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, and even if the Dolphins do a good job of clogging up the middle, Williams’ ability as a checkdown for Russell Wilson is an underrated aspect of his game.

Williams should start to turn the corner in Week 3 vs. a Dolphins defense that has given up running back TDs at the fourth-highest rate, and only two teams have yielded rushing yards per game at a higher figure than the 135.5 Miami has granted. The ‘Fins have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to the position. This matchup is much easier to exploit on the ground, and gamers should like Williams for his best season-to-date performance as a risky RB2 and much safer flex.

My projection: 14 carries, 66 rushing yards, 5 targets, 5 receptions, 28 yards, 1 TD (20.4 PPR points)

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 194

Talking NFL news, injury updates, DFS budgeting, and more.

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you NFL news, DFS budget management, injury updates, and “DFS Pay-ups, Stay-aways and Value Plays.” So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen

Fantasy football waiver wire: Week 3 free-agent forecast

Here are the top waiver wire targets for fantasy football in Week 3.

Fantasy football continues to rage on following a high-scoring slate from the Week 2 games, making this upcoming group of waiver wire targets vital for managers to monitor.

We’ll be taking a look at the top available players rostered in Yahoo leagues, using the 75% rostered mark as the threshold. If you have any questions about prioritizing a certain player over another, don’t be afraid to hit me up on X, formerly Twitter, (@KevinHickey11). Your questions and comments are always welcome!

We also will be taking a look at some deeper players to stash and the top streaming options for the upcoming week.

Fantasy football waiver wire recommendations refer to 12-team league formats, unless specifically stated.

Check back for any updates throughout Monday and Tuesday as more injury news becomes available.

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 175

Talking NFL news, Week 4 daily fantasy, and how to react to a poor start.

 

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, a segment helping you decide if you should “shake it off or shake it up” based on your record, and their DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 3

Addressing key risers and fallers heading into Week 3.

One of the things fantasy football players learn with experience is that sometimes having the teams your players are on are getting clubbed early in their games can be a positive.

I call it the “Romo Rule.” From the fantasy perspective, the best thing that could happen if you had Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo was for Dallas to fall behind by 14 points early. Invariably, Romo would abandon the run, throw 50 times, and post eye-popping numbers.

Last Sunday, we saw the Romo Rule explode. In Baltimore, Tua Tagovailoa had 150 passing yards and one touchdown at halftime trailing 28-7. In the second half, he threw for 319 yards and five TDs.

In Detroit, at halftime Carson Wentz had 59 passing yards and no touchdowns with the Washington Commanders trailing 22-0. In the second half, he threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns.

In Las Vegas, at halftime Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray had thrown for 53 yards with no touchdowns and an interception – trailing the Raiders 20-0. After halftime, he threw for 224 yards with a passing and a rushing touchdown.

The next time a team falls down by 20, don’t necessarily consider all is lost. Romo made a career of inflating his stats in early blowout games. If Week 2 taught us anything, the Romo Rule may be in play a lot more.

Here is the Week 3 Fantasy Market Report.

Fantasy Football: 10 utilization stats to know from Week 2

Here are the utilization stats you should know from Week 2 of the NFL season.

We now have a two-game sample size of fantasy football data to work with from the 2022 NFL season.

It’s still a relatively small sample size, but trends are starting.

Before you make any roster cuts or waiver claims for Week 3, here are 10 utilization notes to know following Week 2.

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 174

Buy, sell or hold reactions after two games and a look at Week 3 lineups.

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, buy, sell or hold players, and their DFS Pay-ups, Stay-aways, and Value Plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen

Fantasy Football Rest of Season Rankings: Week 3

Forecasting where all of the notable players net out over the remainder of the season.

These fantasy football rankings track a player’s value for the remainder of the season and are intended to be used as a tool, not necessarily a definitive guide to player valuation.

The scoring system is performance PPR. There is no exact science behind season-long rankings, considering all of the variables and situational uncertainties at work.

Rankings key:
UP/DN is trending up or down from week’s ranking.
NR means the player wasn’t ranked last week.
UP/DN numbering shows where the player was ranked the prior week.

Fantasy football rest of season rankings

Quarterbacks
Rk Never leaves lineup Bye Up/Down Notes
1 Josh Allen, BUF 7 making it look easy right now
2 Justin Herbert, LAC 8 UP3 suffered a rib injury in Wk 2; he is considered day-to-day
3 Patrick Mahomes, KCC 8
4 Lamar Jackson, BAL 10
5 Jalen Hurts, PHI 7 keeps solidifying his place as a weekly start
Rk Lineup regulars Bye Up/Down Notes
6 Kyler Murray, ARI 13 made some great ad-lib plays late, but ARI’s base offense looks terrible
7 Joe Burrow, CIN 10
8 Russell Wilson, DEN 9 still a work in progress, and his WR corps is thinned by injuries
9 Matthew Stafford, LAR 7
10 Tom Brady, TB 11 36 completions in two gms? this ain’t Bruce Arians’ world anymore
11 Aaron Rodgers, GB 14 looked better in Wk 2, but still a ways to go for GB’s passing attack
Rk Weekly matchup plays Bye Up/Down Notes
12 Kirk Cousins, MIN 7 DN9 with a game’s worth of film, PHI dominated MIN’s offense and made Cousins look awful
13 Derek Carr, LV 6
14 Tua Tagovailoa, MIA 11 UP16 …but now you have my attention
15 Dak Prescott, DAL 9 UP18 DNP in Wk 2 w/ a thumb injury; he’s expected to miss several games
16 Trevor Lawrence, JAC 11
17 Jared Goff, DET 6 UP25 DET has some legitimate weapons
18 Matt Ryan, IND 14 DN17 the move from ATL has not gone smoothly
19 Jameis Winston, NO 14
Rk Fringe plays/roster depth Bye Up/Down Notes
20 Ryan Tannehill, TEN 6 DN18 pulled in a blowout loss; ugly start for TEN
21 Justin Fields, CHI 14 DN19 does the coaching staff trust Fields? like at all?
22 Carson Wentz, WAS 14
23 Marcus Mariota, ATL 14 UP27 at least there’s some athleticism w/ Mariota
24 Mac Jones, NE 10
25 Daniel Jones, NYG 9
26 Davis Mills, HOU 6
27 Jimmy Garoppolo, SF 9 NR enters the rankings w/ Lance (ankle) lost for the season
28 Baker Mayfield, CAR 13 maybe it wasn’t the shoulder…
29 Zach Wilson, NYJ 10 missed first 2 gms w/ a knee injury; he’s not expected to return prior to Wk 4
30 Cooper Rush, DAL 9
31 Jacoby Brissett, CLE 9
32 Mitchell Trubisky, PIT 9 KEN-NY! KEN-NY! KEN-NY!
33 Geno Smith, SEA 11
34 Deshaun Watson, CLE 9 suspended until Dec. 4
35 Kenny Pickett, PIT 9
36 Desmond Ridder, ATL 14
Running backs
Rk Never leaves lineup Bye Up/Down Notes
1 Jonathan Taylor, IND 14 might be time to recommit to the running game in Indy
2 Austin Ekeler, LAC 8
3 Christian McCaffrey, CAR 13 topped 100 yds rushing in Wk 2
4 Joe Mixon, CIN 10
5 Derrick Henry, TEN 6 DN4 back to the drawing board for the Titans
6 Nick Chubb, CLE 9 his decision not to slide was a good one for fantasy owners at least
7 Dalvin Cook, MIN 7 DN6 Zimmer used Cook too much; O’Connell isn’t using him enough
8 Najee Harris, PIT 9 UP9
9 Alvin Kamara, NO 14 DNP in Wk 2 w/ a rib injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
10 Saquon Barkley, NYG 9 UP11
Rk Lineup regulars Bye Up/Down Notes
11 D’Andre Swift, DET 6 played through an ankle injury in Wk 2; so much talent, but durability remains a real concern
12 Aaron Jones, GB 14 UP14 feels like he could be in for a really big year as both a runner and receiver
13 Leonard Fournette, TB 11
14 Javonte Williams, DEN 9
15 David Montgomery, CHI 14 UP17 looked like CHI’s best offensive player in Wk 2
16 James Conner, ARI 13 suffered an ankle injury in Wk 2 and did not return; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
17 Ezekiel Elliott, DAL 9
18 J.K. Dobbins, BAL 10 missed first 2 gms w/ a knee injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
19 AJ Dillon, GB 14
20 Kareem Hunt, CLE 9 UP23
Rk Weekly matchup plays Bye Up/Down Notes
21 Breece Hall, NYJ 10 DN20 basically splitting work w/ M. Carter
22 Miles Sanders, PHI 7 UP29 PHI’s ground game is looking dangerous again this season
23 Antonio Gibson, WAS 14
24 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC 8 maximizing his touches, but steadier usage would make his value feel more secure
25 Travis Etienne, JAC 11 DN18 had 9 carries to Robinson’s 23 in Wk 2; his descent could continue in the weeks ahead
26 Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL 14 being used like a more traditional RB thus far
27 Josh Jacobs, LV 6
28 James Robinson, JAC 11 UP35 was the focal point of the offense in Wk 2; if that continues he’ll jump another tier
29 Chase Edmonds, MIA 11 DN25
30 Dameon Pierce, HOU 6 had 15 carries to Burkhead’s 0 in Wk 2
31 Damien Harris, NE 10
32 Cam Akers, LAR 7 logged 17 touches in Wk 2 w/ Henderson posting 10
33 Devin Singletary, BUF 7 DN28 when BUF pulled Allen, the 3 RBs had 36 yds rushing combined
34 Tony Pollard, DAL 9
35 Jeff Wilson, SF 14 UP41 was the primary runner until late when SF used Davis-Price w/ the lead
36 Darrell Henderson, LAR 7
37 Michael Carter, NYJ 10 UP39
38 Rashaad Penny, SEA 11
39 Rhamondre Stevenson, NE 10 DN32
40 Melvin Gordon III, DEN 9
Rk Fringe plays/roster depth Bye Up/Down Notes
41 Kenneth Walker III, SEA 11 returned in Wk 2 after missing a game w/ a hernia
42 Nyheim Hines, IND 14
43 Raheem Mostert, MIA 11 UP51 more work than Edmonds in Wk 2, but given his injury history I don’t want to bump him too much
44 Kenneth Gainwell, PHI 7
45 Jamaal Williams, DET 6
46 Khalil Herbert, CHI 14 still feel like he could have a major role this year, especially if they don’t trust Fields
47 Tyler Allgeier, ATL 14 UP57 split carries w/ Patterson in Wk 2, which is an encouraging sign for the rookie
48 J.D. McKissic, WAS 14
49 Isiah Pacheco, KC 8 DN43 had no real role in a close game v LAC, which tells you he’s third on the depth chart
50 Alexander Mattison, MIN 7
51 Rachaad White, TB 11 DN47 not seeing much work yet, but hard to believe Fournette can sustain his currrent usage over 17 gms
52 Mark Ingram, NO 14
53 Darrel Williams, ARI 13 UP66 he’d have some waiver wire appeal if Conner misses time
54 Zack Moss, BUF 7
55 Tyrion Davis-Price, SF 9 Will miss a few weeks with ankle sprain
56 James Cook, BUF 7 DN50 led the Bills in rushing in Wk 2, but it all came in garbage time
57 Brian Robinson Jr., WAS 14 will miss at least the first 4 gms w/ a knee injury; he could return in Wk 5
58 Jerick McKinnon, KC 8
59 Rex Burkhead, HOU 6 DN55 zero carries in Wk 2
60 Dontrell Hilliard, TEN 6
61 Eno Benjamin, ARI 13
62 Elijah Mitchell, SF 9 suffered a sprained MCL in Wk 1; he’s expected to miss around 2 months
63 Gus Edwards, BAL 10 Edwards (Achilles) will miss at least the first 4 gms of the season on the PUP list
64 Zamir White, LV 6
65 Sony Michel, LAC 8 has been less effective than Joshua Kelley thus far
66 Kenyan Drake, BAL 10 DN59 can’t get anything going, and that’s w/ Dobbins still out
67 Matt Breida, NYG 9
68 Isaiah Spiller, LAC 8
69 Samaje Perine, CIN 10
70 Ty Montgomery, NE 10 NR on IR w/ a knee injury; eligible to return in Wk 6
Wide receivers
Rk Never leaves lineup Bye Up/Down Notes
1 Cooper Kupp, LAR 7
2 Justin Jefferson, MIN 7 turns out using your best CB to cover Jefferson is beneficial
3 Stefon Diggs, BUF 7
4 Davante Adams, LV 6 bad game; it happens
5 Tyreek Hill, MIA 11 UP7
6 Ja’Marr Chase, CIN 10 DN3 those protection woes are a real concern for the passing game in Cincy
7 Deebo Samuel, SF 9
8 Keenan Allen, LAC 8 DNP in Wk 2 w/ a hamstring injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
9 Mike Evans, TB 11 ejected from Wk 2 and has been suspended for Wk 3 (pending an appeal)
10 Michael Pittman Jr., IND 14 DNP in Wk 2 w/ a quad injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
Rk Lineup regulars Bye Up/Down Notes
11 A.J. Brown, PHI 7
12 Jaylen Waddle, MIA 11 UP18 Hill/Waddle is on the short list for best 1-2 WR combo in the NFL
13 D.J. Moore, CAR 13 DN12
14 Tee Higgins, CIN 10
15 Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET 6 UP22 no sign his strong close to 2021 was anything other than a legit ascension
16 CeeDee Lamb, DAL 9 DN11
17 Brandin Cooks, HOU 6
18 Courtland Sutton, DEN 9 UP20
19 Diontae Johnson, PIT 9 need to see more from PIT’s offense in Wk 3 or Johnson could drop
20 Terry McLaurin, WAS 14 DN16 w/ Samuel and Dotson around, McLaurin’s production may decline
21 DK Metcalf, SEA 11 same way w/ Metcalf as Johnson; need better QB play
22 Mike Williams, LAC 8 capable of huge things, but he needs more consistency
23 Marquise Brown, ARI 13
24 Jerry Jeudy, DEN 9 suffered a shoulder injury in Wk 2 and did not return; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
25 Allen Robinson, LAR 7 much more involved in Wk 2; had a second TD taken off the board
26 Michael Thomas, NO 14
27 Christian Kirk, JAC 11 UP30 maybe we shouldn’t have laughed at how much the Jags paid him in free agency?
Rk Weekly matchup plays Bye Up/Down Notes
28 Gabriel Davis, BUF 7 DNP in Wk 2 w/ an ankle injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
29 Amari Cooper, CLE 9 UP33 looked every bit the lynchpin of CLE’s passing game in Wk 2
30 JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC 8
31 Chris Godwin, TB 11 DNP in Wk 2 w/ a hamstring injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
32 Rashod Bateman, BAL 10 UP35 has a pair of big TD grabs, but the low volume is mildly concerning
33 Curtis Samuel, WAS 14 UP50 looks like he’s carved out a sustainable role in WAS’ offense
34 Adam Thielen, MIN 7
35 Hunter Renfrow, LV 6 may have suffered a concussion on the final play of the game; monitor his status
36 Drake London, ATL 14 UP39
37 DeVonta Smith, PHI 7 UP44
38 Darnell Mooney, CHI 14 DN23 that CHI passing game looks lost
39 Tyler Lockett, SEA 11
40 Jakobi Meyers, NE 10 more than twice as many targets as anyone else in NE for Wk 2
41 Garrett Wilson, NYJ 10
42 Elijah Moore, NYJ 10 DN37 hard to accurately evaluate NYJ WRs until Wilson returns
43 Allen Lazard, GB 14 returned in Wk 2 after missing a game w/ an ankle injury
44 Robert Woods, TEN 6
45 DeAndre Hopkins, ARI 13 suspended until Oct. 20
46 Jahan Dotson, WAS 14 UP48 I still have concerns about the long-term viability of Wentz leading this offense
Rk Fringe plays/roster depth Bye Up/Down Notes
47 Chris Olave, NO 14 UP56
48 Brandon Aiyuk, SF 9 UP53 short term, Aiyuk might be better off w/ Jimmy G at QB
49 Robbie Anderson, CAR 13
50 Jarvis Landry, NO 14 DN46
51 Chase Claypool, PIT 9
52 Treylon Burks, TEN 6 UP59
53 Tyler Boyd, CIN 10 DN47 being the No. 3 WR on a team only works if the offense is clicking
54 Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE 9
55 K.J. Osborn, MIN 7
56 Mecole Hardman, KC 8 right now Kelce is the only sure bet among KC’s pass catchers
57 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC 8 DN49
58 George Pickens, PIT 9 DN52
59 Julio Jones, TB 11 DNP in Wk 2 w/ a knee injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
60 Romeo Doubs, GB 14
61 Michael Gallup, DAL 9 missed first 2 gms w/ a knee injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
62 DJ Chark Jr., DET 6 DN58 looks like St. Brown and then everyone else in DET right now
63 Rondale Moore, ARI 13 UP67 missed first 2 gms w/ a hamstring injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
64 Zay Jones, JAC 11
65 Sterling Shepard, NYG 9 NR
66 Josh Palmer, LAC 8
67 Noah Brown, DAL 9 NR off to a good start, but what will his role be once Gallup returns?
68 Christian Watson, GB 14
69 Van Jefferson, LAR 7 missed first 2 gms w/ a knee injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
70 Russell Gage Jr., TB 11 minimal production in Wk 2 w/ both Godwin & Jones inactive
71 DeVante Parker, NE 10 DN64 zero impact thus far
72 Nico Collins, HOU 6
73 Alec Pierce, IND 14 DNP in Wk 2 w/ a concussion; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
74 Marvin Jones, JAC 11
75 Devin Duvernay, BAL 10 suffered a concussion in Wk 2; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
76 Jameson Williams, DET 6 Williams (knee) will miss at least the first 4 gms on the RES/NFI list as he recovers from a torn ACL
77 Kadarius Toney, NYG 9 DN62
78 Skyy Moore, KC 8
79 Corey Davis, NYJ 10
80 Jauan Jennings, SF 9
Tight ends
Rk Never leaves lineup Bye Up/Down Notes
1 Travis Kelce, KC 8
2 Mark Andrews, BAL 10
3 Kyle Pitts, ATL 14 how is he not being targeted more???
4 George Kittle, SF 9 missed first 2 gms w/ a groin injury; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
5 Darren Waller, LV 6 UP6
Rk Lineup regulars Bye Up/Down Notes
6 Dalton Schultz, DAL 9 suffered a knee injury late in Wk 2; his status for Wk 3 is TBD
7 Pat Freiermuth, PIT 9
8 T.J. Hockenson, DET 6 DN7
9 Zach Ertz, ARI 13 UP11
10 Dallas Goedert, PHI 7
11 Tyler Higbee, LAR 7 UP19 20 targets through 2 gms
12 Dawson Knox, BUF 7
Rk Weekly matchup plays Bye Up/Down Notes
13 Hunter Henry, NE 10
14 David Njoku, CLE 9
15 Mike Gesicki, MIA 11
16 Gerald Everett, LAC 8 UP26 playing well in his return to LA
17 Irv Smith, MIN 7
18 Hayden Hurst, CIN 10 UP22 10 catches on 15 targets through 2 gms
19 Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN 9
Rk Fringe plays/roster depth Bye Up/Down Notes
20 Cole Kmet, CHI 14 DN12 doesn’t have a reception this season
21 Noah Fant, SEA 11 DN16
22 Austin Hooper, TEN 6
23 Evan Engram, JAC 11 UP25
24 Robert Tonyan, GB 14
25 Isaiah Likely, BAL 10
26 Logan Thomas, WAS 14
27 Tyler Conklin, NYJ 10
28 O.J. Howard, HOU 6
29 Juwan Johnson, NO 14 NR
30 Taysom Hill, NO 14
Defensive teams
Rk Never leaves lineup Bye Up/Down Notes
1 Bills, BUF 7 dominant
2 Buccaneers, TB 11
3 Rams, LAR 7 got sloppy late, but this is still an elite group
Rk Lineup regulars Bye Up/Down Notes
4 Packers, GB 14 that late-game run defense was a bit scary
5 49ers, SF 9
6 Cowboys, DAL 9 UP9 Micah Parsons; that’s it, that’s the note
7 Dolphins, MIA 11
8 Patriots, NE 10
9 Saints, NO 14 DN7
10 Eagles, PHI 7 UP14
11 Chargers, LAC 8
Rk Weekly matchup plays Bye Up/Down Notes
12 Steelers, PIT 9
13 Colts, IND 14 DN5 nothing looks good in Indy right now
14 Broncos, DEN 9 UP14
15 Ravens, BAL 10 DN11 woof
16 Chiefs, KC 8
20 Jaguars, JAC 11 NR 6 sacks and 5 INTs in 2 gms; still skeptical, buuuuut…
18 Bengals, CIN 10
19 Browns, CLE 9
17 Vikings, MIN 7 DN17

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 4

With all eyes on Tom Brady’s return, QB Mac Jones has a chance to thrive in fantasy.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 4

Tracking my predictions: 0-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Sitting 0-3 isn’t a great feeling, but I’ve been close enough with my rationale each week that sooner or later a break will go my way. Even through three unsuccessful attempts, sticking to the process is a must.

QB Mac Jones, New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In Week 4, my approach is slightly different than usual, because there won’t be too many scenarios in redraft or keeper leagues in which gamers are compelled to gamble at quarterback.

New England will see Tom Brady return to Gillette Stadium, but the more interesting storyline in fantasy is not necessarily the pressure of a primetime showdown vs. football royalty but how the rookie rebounds from a three-INT outing. Brady and Jones aren’t playing against each other in the way the broadcast narrative likes to paint it, so Jones mentally shaking off the worst outing of his young career is the more important factor.

The Buccaneers present the second-worst defense of the position in fantasy football, and the only reason Washington ranks worse is due to giving up a pair of QB rushing scores. There also is a strong possibility we see Tampa come out swinging for the fences, which puts the Patriots in a “keep pace” mentality, at least to a degree more than usual.

The ideal game plan for the Patriots is a ground-control approach that disrupts Tampa from getting into a rhythm by keeping Brady at bay. If that is how New England addresses the game and is able to stick with it, this doesn’t do much for Jones, so understand it is a legitimate concern. It’s unlikely the Patriots can contain all of these weapons and keep Brady’s guys out of the end zone for long.

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The Bucs have given up 403-3-1 to Dak Prescott (Week 1), 300-2-3 to Matt Ryan (Week 2 garbage time), and 343-4-0 to Matthew Stafford (Week 3). Jones isn’t close to being on the same level as any of those veterans, but serious injuries to Tampa Bay’s secondary can make the rookie look like a seasoned pro. Pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder) missed last Sunday and began this week of practice with a DNP. The Buccaneers have the fewest sacks in the league, and no team has a worse percentage of sacks in relation to opposing QB drop-backs (2.04 percent).

New England’s unheralded cast of receivers stepped up last week, and these guys are capable of making some noise against a battered Tampa secondary. The tight ends should be a larger factor after James White (hip) was lost for the year, and running against the Bucs is never ease, which promotes more short-area passing as an extension of the running game. This was a favorable matchup for tight ends in 2020, and it has carried over into this season.

If you’re in a two-QB setting, or face a tough matchup for a rotational passer, Jones should be on your radar. Don’t get cocky and bench a safe starter for the rookie. Play Jones only where you feel comfortable taking a sizeable risk. This recommendation isn’t for everyone, and it will require the Alabama first-rounder to play his best football to date in the NFL.

My projection: 295 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and 10 rushing yards (26.75 fantasy points)