Tag: Bucs stats

Where the Bucs finished the 2023 regular season statistically

The Panthers game served as a statistical outlier as the Bucs finished the season — a good outlier for the defense, but a bad one for the offense.

The 2023 regular season is a wrap for the NFL. And while most teams will be going home and resetting, some — like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — still have some football to play.

The team clinched a playoff berth after defeating the Carolina Panthers 9-0 and winning the NFC South. The game was an outlier game statistically on two opposite ends, with Tampa Bay’s year-end stats getting a big boost on defense from a dominant performance and a big drop off on offense from a unit that wasn’t able to score a touchdown all day. At the year’s end, there are a few promising statistics the Bucs boast, but there are some others that are among the worst in the league.

Here is how the team finished statistically, according to Team Rankings:

Bucs offense begins drives with run-run-pass sequence at league-high rate

Bucs OC Dave Canales has been impressive in his first year as a coordinator, but this one stat could indicate that his offense is a tad predictable.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown flashes of an impressive offense in 2023, particularly in the four-game winning streak in which they scored 28 points or more in three of those games. But with a first-year offensive coordinator, there are bound to be a few bumps here and there, and there’s one are where the Bucs may be a bit predictable.

NFL statistician Arjun Menon released a project in which he measured how often a team starts a drive by running twice and then passing on third down during any given series of downs. And not only did the Bucs do this more often than any other team in the league at 53%, but they also do it at a higher percentage of their series of downs than any team in the NFL by a large margin over the Houston Texans.

This, in theory, could create a bit of a predictable offense, pointing toward the philosophy that it isn’t how much you run, but how you run that could cause this problem. Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales recently spoke on this matter after some criticized the team against the New Orleans Saints for running the ball too much, saying that the balance between the run and the pass is important to him as a play-caller.

“That’s when all of the stuff opens up. [It is] really critical for me to be disciplined about the balance of it, and at the same time, to take what they’re giving us,” Canales said of his run game. “I just felt like we were not able to do that last week, where, regardless of what they were doing, we weren’t functioning in the rhythm of the pass game [and] we weren’t functioning in our runs.”

The chart also notes that the Bucs convert on that third-down pass 53% of the time. That would be the 12th-highest conversion rate on such plays in the NFL. While it’s hard to argue with some of the results from Canales and how much of a step up this offense is from last year’s, the first-year coordinator still has some improvements to make heading into the offseason.

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The top defensive players in Tampa Bay’s loss to New Orleans, per PFF

There were a few defensive standouts in Week 17 despite an overall rough day from the defense.

It was an overall defensive performance to forget for the Buccaneers.

The Bucs dropped their matchup to the New Orleans Saints 23-13 on Sunday, and it saw the team give up 17 points by the time the first half had ended. The Bucs saw two touchdowns and three field goals levied against them across the day, and the Saints were able to take advantage of what remains a league-worst pass defense in the NFL.

Pro Football Focus graded every Bucs defensive player for the game, and despite the poor showing, there were some players the website graded highly. Here are the 10 highest-graded defensive Bucs players, per PFF:

Where the Bucs rank statistically after Week 17

Here’s how the Bucs stack up to the rest of the NFL heading into the final game of the 2023-24 season:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into Week 17 having won four games in a row with a blistering offense, and that didn’t seem to show up when they played the New Orleans Saints at home in a division-clinching matchup.

The Bucs largely got demolished 23-13 at home, only scoring points in the fourth quarter when the game was all but over. As a result, the team now has to defeat the Carolina Panthers on the road in Week 18 to go to the playoffs as the No. 4 seed.

With a putrid offense and a sieve for a defense, Tampa Bay didn’t do too much to boost any of their rankings amongst the NFL against the Saints. Here is where the Bucs currently stand statistically, according to Team Rankings:

The top defensive players in Tampa Bay’s win over Jacksonville, per PFF

Devin White’s return to the gridiron after injury was a smash hit, as he was the highest-graded Bucs PFF defender:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense created a nightmare before Christmas for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Bucs had four turnovers against the Jaguars and held them to just 12 points, most of which came in garbage time. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was stifled the entire game, throwing two interceptions and fumbling once, and the defense held Jacksonville’s run game to just 2.8 yards per carry across the whole day. Pro Football Focus certainly took notice, giving the defense high marks across the board. They were particularly impressed with Devin White, who made a big splash on the return to the gridiron.

Here are PFF’s 10 highest-rated defensive players from Tampa Bay’s Week 16:

Where the Bucs rank statistically after Week 16

The Bucs now are tied for the best turnover differential in the NFL.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished their game of Connect Four on Sunday.

The team beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday to get their fourth straight win and move to 8-7 on the year, the first time they’ve had a winning record since Week 6. The Bucs are now atop the NFC South and have a chance to win it in Week 17 against the New Orleans Saints, as a victory would ensure they clinch the division and a playoff berth.

The Bucs have done particularly well in the past few weeks, and as a result, a lot of their statistical rankings are improving at the end of the year. Here’s how the Bucs stack up against the rest of the league, per Team Rankings:

How Tampa Bay and Jacksonville compare in advanced stats

Here’s how the Bucs and the Jaguars stack up in some deeper metrics ahead of their Christmas Eve showdown.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Jacksonville Jaguars are are very close in record, yet their trajectories couldn’t be more different.

Bucs have won three games in a row to move up to 7-7, while the Jags have lost three in a row to drop to 8-6 on the year. The Bucs are very healthy, with no player being ruled out for Sunday, but the Jaguars are facing a number of injuries that have hindered them for a bit. With one team trending up and the other trending down, the two teams’ advanced analytics have some interesting things to say.

Interestingly enough, the Bucs offense does better on advanced metrics than Jacksonville — Tampa Bay leads the Jags in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play, EPA per pass and EPA per rush, with Jacksonville’s -0.18 EPA/rush good for the 28th worst in football. The Bucs also boast a top 10 EPA/pass in the NFL at 0.06, but they strangely do worse than the Jaguars when it comes to success rate at 40.8% to Jacksonville’s 42.9%.

The defense is where it gets worse for Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay’s success rate allowed, EPA/pass allowed and explosive plays allowed are all abysmal, grading in the bottom five of the NFL in all of those categories. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are in the top half or better in those categories, with their best defensive stat being their pass defense at -0.05 EPA/pass allowed.

Should Trevor Lawrence not be able to play for the Jaguars, that Bucs defense could be under far less stress than anticipated. As it stands, Tampa Bay’s offense stands superior to the Jaguars, but their defensive unit could keep things close on Christmas Eve.

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Bucs defense gives up more explosive plays than any NFL team

The Bucs are in the drivers seat for a fourth-consecutive playoff appearance, but this defensive stat doesn’t bode well for them if they get there.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are atop the NFC South and playing .500 football at 7-7, in part due to a three-game win streak at a crucial moment. And while this has done a lot to help Tampa Bay put itself in the position to make the playoffs, there’s one particular defensive stat that will make it hard for them to stay there.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed more explosive pass plays than any other team in the NFL. An explosive pass play is any pass play that goes for 20 or more yards, and the Bucs have given up more of those plays than anyone else. The defense has surrendered 59 explosive pass plays so far this season (9.8% of all pass plays it has faced), ahead of the Washington Commanders (58) and the Cincinnati Bengals (56). The team has done a good job keeping its run plays in check, only giving up 26 explosive run plays of 10 or more yards.

The team has faced a particular problem when it comes to zone coverage busts. It seems as if the team has multiple every week, with a notable one recently coming during Tampa Bay’s game against the Atlanta Falcons when a blown coverage allowed tight end Kyle Pitts to waltz into the end zone entirely uncovered.

Additionally, four of the last five quarterbacks the team has faced have thrown for 250 yards or more and two of those quarterbacks have thrown for 300 yards or more against the secondary. Tampa Bay’s win streak is undeniably impressive, but as it stands, the secondary is a huge problem heading into a potential playoff matchup with who will likely be either the Philadelphia Eagles or the Dallas Cowboys.

The Bucs will play the next game in their playoff charge against the Jacksonville Jagaurs at 4:25 p.m. on Christmas Eve for Week 16.

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Where the Bucs rank statistically after Week 15

See how the Bucs are looking in comparison to the rest of the league after their big win against the Packers:

Head coach Todd Bowles told reporters a few weeks ago that every game from here on out is a playoff game, and the team is certainly acting like it.

The Bucs are on a three-game win streak, the latest of which came against the Green Bay Packers in Week 15. The team won 34-20 on Sunday, bringing it to 7-7 and staying in the driver’s seat for the NFC South. It was a stellar offensive performance, and while the defense gave up quite a bit of yards, the Bucs were able to hold off the Packers and get the win at Lambeau Field.

It may be a playoff mentality and the Bucs have improved on a number of things, but the team still has a few things to work on before the postseason comes around. Check out how the Bucs related to the rest of the league statistically, per Team Rankings:

Where the Bucs rank statistically after Week 14

Here’s how the Bucs stack up to the rest of the NFL after their game against the Falcons:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers put up quite a bit of points on Sunday, but their stats didn’t correlate with that increase in a few respects.

The team’s passing game didn’t get going as much as the team would have liked in their 29-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay’s passing defense was subsequently shredded by Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder. Despite that, though, there were a few positives to take away reflected in the team’s statistics — the defense had two turnovers and the Bucs’ run game continued to improve, with running back Rachaad White once again clipping over 100 yards.

Check out how Tampa Bay compares to the rest of the league statistically after their win on Sunday, per Team Rankings: