Tag: Advanced Stats Notebook

Cowboys-Patriots Advanced Stats: Just how toxic is the Dallas offense?

The Cowboys surely plummeted down the rankings after their abysmal performance in Week 3, right? Not so fast. Here’s the numbers you need to know for Week 4. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Everyone loves a big play, unless it’s happening against their favorite team. Big plays are what gets fans out of their seats, whether in stadium or at home on the couch watching the big screen. Through the first two weeks of the season, Dallas had dominated their opponents in the big play, better known as toxic plays around these parts. The Cowboys were turning their opponents over at an alarming rate, the run game was doing their job and despite not many deep passes, yards after the catch by WR CeeDee Lamb were moving the chains in chunks.

That will need to return against the New England Patriots in order for the club to get back in the win column. In our latest Advanced Stats Notebook, we look at where each of the teams ranks in terms of big plays produced and given up, along with the highly important efficiency metric of EPA, the opponent-adjusted context of DVOA and the overall view of the passing game and how well each stops their opponents.

Cowboys-Giants Advanced Stats: Dallas opens season No. 1 in DVOA

The Cowboys and Giants are set to square off yet again, here’s a look at how the team’s 2022 performance and 2023 forecasts will shape the matchup on Sunday night. DVOA, EPA, Toxic Plays and more. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Professional football has returned to our collective lives. With the NFL kickoff game scheduled for Thursday night, it’s the first weekend of action for the 2023 season. The Dallas Cowboys find themselves in familiar territory, playing on Sunday Night Football, against a familiar foe in a familiar place. The Cowboys travel to NewYork to take on the Giants in what used to be an annual affair on opening night.

Who holds the advantage? Teams change from year to year, so in some aspects advanced statistics from 2022 won’t tell much. However they do provide a baseline for expectations which in Week 1 is all fans have to go off of. The Advanced Stats Notebook looks to gather stats and metrics that truly function as measures of team quality and then use an overview to determine which team should have the advantage.

For decades, teams have been ranked based on stats that don’t give a complete picture. One example, yardage. Yardage is so far away from being what’s important in the NFL, yet the conventional moniker “No. 1 offense in the league” has to do with yardage totals. If a team falls behind every game and throws it all over the place in the fourth quarter, they can be a top yardage squad without being a good squad.

What should fans be talking about instead? Glad you asked. Each week we analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

49ers enjoy slim statistical edge over Cowboys, but it can be overcome

The Cowboys and 49ers are on a collision course in the playoffs for the second season in a row. The margin for error this week is tiny. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

Oscar Wilde once said “Life imitates art” and for this season’s Dallas Cowboys it couldn’t be more true.  In many ways, this season has mirrored last season. The Cowboys finished both campaigns with a 12-5 record and as destiny would have it, they faced off with the San Francisco 49ers in the postseason.  However, unlike last season, the Cowboys are the wild-card team and the 49ers are the team that is the favorite and hosting the game.

The Cowboys kicked off their postseason run with an impressive 31-14 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Entering the game the team faced questions about playing on natural grass, the drought between road playoff wins and even the record against Tom Brady. When the final seconds dripped off the clock, all of those were answered with resounding confirmation this team is resilient and unafraid of a challenge.

Enter the San Francisco 49ers, and boy are they a challenge. They have a formidable defense, one of the top scoring offenses in the league and a bevy of weapons they can attack a defense with. Taking a step back from the physical talent, they are a well coached team led by Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive minds in the game, and by one of the most revered defensive minds in the league in coordinator Demeco Ryans.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

This unexpected edge could be difference-maker for Cowboys vs. Bucs

For all the hand wringing, multiple advanced stats say the Cowboys run defense is really quite good, but that’s not even the key to this game. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys started their 2022 season with a 19-3 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, losing quarterback Dak Prescott, safety Jayron Kearse and left guard Connor McGovern in the process. All three would return and help the Cowboys finish with a 12-5 record, their first 12-win seasons in consecutive years since the 93-94 seasons.

As for the Bucs. they were unable to rekindle their success in the ground game and would suffer multiple injuries to their offensive line on their way to an 8-9 record.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Advanced stats show Lawrence, Jaguars offense as Cowboys’ equal

As the Cowboys look to extend their winning streak, the Jaguars offense has developed and offers a closer matchup than meets the eye. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys survived a closer than expected game against the Houston Texans in Week 14. They need an Ezekiel Elliott touchdown run to cap off a 98-yard drive and an interception by second year safety Israel Mukuamu in the final moments of the game. That win gave the Cowboys double digit wins in back-to-back seasons for the first since 1996.

With the NFC East divisional title still within their sights, the Cowboys will travel to east Florida to face the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Cowboys welcome back offensive tackle Tyron Smith who will make his 2022 debut this week and feature a new toy for Dak Prescott to throw to in veteran wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.

The 5-8 Jaguars have won two of their last three games and have an emerging second year quarterback in Trevor Lawrence that has thrown 10 touchdown passes with no interceptions over his last five starts. The Jaguars are still within reach of the AFC South division title and are two games back in the AFC wildcard picture.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

DVOA, EPA conflict in Cowboys-Vikings Week 11 stats preview

Despite their last performance, the Cowboys are road favorites over the 8-1 Vikings. @ProfessorO_NFL finds the edge is small, according to analytics.

Dallas enter Week 11 with a 6-3 record after an overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers last weekend. The Cowboys will look to right the ship against their fourth consecutive NFC North opponent.  The offense is expected to have RB Ezekiel Elliott back in the mix, which should help the Cowboys potent rushing attack.

The Cowboys opponent this week, the Minnesota Vikings, have an 8-1 record and have a seven-game winning streak on the line. Offensively, the Vikings have a two-headed rushing attack and multiple receiving threats to attack a defense. Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability

 

Statistical Breakdown: How the Cowboys and Commanders stack up in Week 4

Forget the traditional box score, here’s a look at how the Cowboys and Commanders match up in the stats that matter on Sunday. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Washington Commanders in a battle of NFC East rivals, as both face division battles for the second week in a row. In Week 3, Washington suffered a loss against the Philadelphia Eagles while Dallas picked up a win against the New York Giants.

The 2-1 Cowboys are expecting several familiar faces to return to the lineup this week. Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz and Connor McGovern are expected to return for the offense while Jayron Kearse is expected to be back on the defense. Quarterback Dak Prescott will once again be out as he recovers from a thumb injury suffered on Week 1.

Meanwhile the Commanders (1-2) have dropped two straight and will look to bounce back after a tough loss that saw QB Carson Wentz sacked nine times as the offense struggled to move the football.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how the teams ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Advanced Stats: Cowboys look to avoid 0-2 start in a battle with the Bengals.

Taking a look at the advanced statistical categories closely correlated with winning to see who has the edge going into Week 2. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

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The 2022 season got off to a rough start for the Dallas Cowboys, with a 19-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football.  To add salt to the wound, the Cowboys suffered injuries to Dak Prescott, Jayron Kearse, Connor McGovern and Tarell Basham that will require each player to miss Week 2.

The Cowboys are turning to veteran backup Cooper Rush at quarterback as they attempt to avoid an 0-2 start.  In the seven seasons the Cowboys have started 0-2, they have only finished the season with a winning record one time, 1993.  The other six seasons resulted in the Cowboys winning six games or less.

The Cowboys will attempt to bounce back against the 0-1 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals lost their season-opener, 23-20, in an overtime thriller vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.

As fans turn the page, here’s a review of the advanced stats to see what the numbers say.

“We’re onto Cincinnati.”- Bill Belichick

Advanced stats say surging 49ers present formidable foe for Cowboys

Cowboys scored over 100 more points and allowed less points than SF, but the 49ers hold a slight edge in key win indicators. @ProfessorO_NFL dives into DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity.

The 2021 NFL regular season officially ended with the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys dominating the Philadelphia Eagles in a record-breaking night for quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys were short-handed due to injuries and COVID-19 cases but able to win on Saturday then watch to see if they could move up in NFC seeding. With the Seattle Seahawks beating the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers upsetting the Los Angeles Rams, the Cowboys were able to move from the four seed to the three and will have their sights on the 49ers this Sunday in the opening round of the playoffs.

The 49ers ended their season on a high with a come-from-behind victory. They finished the season third in their division with a 10-7 record but with the sixth seed. They will fly into Dallas with similar momentum as both teams have won four of their last five games.

This matchup features several intriguing storylines, however the one that is sure to garner a lot of attention will be the matchup of Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn facing off with 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons during their best days that included a trip to the Super Bowl. Their knowledge of each other’s schemes and thought processes presents an interesting meeting.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Eagles’ offense has EPA edge, but do Cowboys own Week 18 advanced stat title?

Think the Cowboys have been light years ahead of the Eagles this season? Think again. The stats notebook shows a fairly even matchup between the rivals. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The NFC East features two playoff teams this season in the 11-5 Dallas Cowboys and 9-7 Philadelphia Eagles. With both teams facing injury challenges and COVID zapping their rosters, there has been a lot of chatter regarding how many starters will play and for how long. The word out of Dallas this week has been that the Cowboys plan to play their starters with a goal of winning, but their starters are compromised, especially on defense.

The Cowboys have won four of their last five games but were unable to beat the Arizona Cardinals last week, losing 25-22.  The Eagles are currently on a four-game winning streak, picking up a win over the Washington Football Team last weekend.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.