Just one chart can help explain the incredible value of Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones, who will be back in Green Bay in 2023 after agreeing to a contract restructuring on Friday.
Let’s start with a simple premise: Running backs want to maximize the return on every carry, and they want every carry to be valuable in the pursuit of points.
Few running backs have done both things better in the last 15 years than Jones.
Here’s the chart showing Jones’ brilliance as a runner, from Paul Noonan of Acme Packing Co:
One of the best charts. pic.twitter.com/9zuiBsvWhO
— BadgerNoonan (@BadgerNoonan) February 17, 2023
On the X axis: EPA per rush, or expected points added per rush.
On the Y axis: Rushing yards over expected per rush.
EPA is a measure of value in terms of adding future expected points per play. Only Jamaal Charles has been more valuable per rush than Jones since 2008.
Rushing yards over expected measures the yards a running back produces over what’s expected of an average running back in the same situation given the blocking and space. In this metric, only Nick Chubb has been better since 2008.
By these two metrics, Jones, Charles and Chubb sit head and shoulders above all other running backs during this 15-year stretch.
And now Jones will be back in Green Bay for 2023 and likely 2024.
Jones has rushed for 5.0 or more yards per rush four times in six NFL seasons and averages 5.1 yards per rush over his 86-game career. He also has three 1,000-yard rushing seasons on fewer than 250 attempts, which ranks second all-time.
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