Tag: DVOA

How do advanced metrics equate to strength of schedule?

Advanced metrics have not been kind to the Vikings this season, but how does it equate to strength of schedule?

You’ve heard it all before: the Minnesota Vikings are lucky and aren’t nearly as good as their 12-3 record would indicate. In fact, there are plenty of analysts, in both good and bad faith, that would tell you just that.

We’ve heard it all at this point. The astounding NFL record in one-score games at 11-0, the NFL record eight fourth-quarter comebacks and the “luck” they have had in such games, most notably the Josh Allen fumble. There is, however, more to projection than just talking about the underlying advanced metrics. There is a lot of context that needs to be taken into account when having such nuanced discussions.

One metric that a lot of people like to mention is DVOA from Football Outsiders. It’s a metric that tries to project forward based on how you have played thus far. One thing that is interesting is how the top teams in DVOA have had a weaker strength of schedule.

Now, DVOA as Akash mentions in the next tweet is a weighted metric that grades your performance based on who your competition is. What is really intriguing is that two of the top three are in the bottom three for strength of schedule while four and five have an SOS of 23rd and 27th.

How do the Vikings fare in comparison? They rank 25th in total DVOA at -9.4% with their SOS being at 14th at 1.1%.

What can we read from this? I think the biggest thing to read from this is that the Vikings, outside of their two massive duds, play to the level of their opponent. It’s why the Vikings have played so many one-score games this season and that explanation makes total sense.

That, and creating their own luck by outscoring opponents by 75 points after the third quarter.

Packers are starting to look like a potentially dangerous playoff team

Are the Packers a middling team taking advantage of a poor NFC? Or is Matt LaFleur’s team starting to look dangerous?

The Green Bay Packers started 4-8 and needed come-from-behind victories over the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins during a current three-game win streak to get to 7-8. With two more wins, the Packers are likely headed back to the playoffs.

Here’s the big question: Are the Packers a middling football team that is just taking advantage of an opportunity in a conference that lacks depth, or is Matt LaFleur’s team getting hot at the right time and becoming a potentially dangerous playoff team in the NFC?

Some of the advanced numbers suggest the latter might be true.

We’ll first use Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) to help explain. Here’s a quick primer on DVOA, which compares a team’s efficiency in all situations based on opponent and the league average. It’s a useful tool for evaluating teams with important context but also without bias.

Consider this: Over the last five weeks, the Packers rank fourth in overall DVOA, behind only the 49ers, Bills and Eagles. Green Bay is seventh in total offense DVOA, second in rushing offense DVOA, first in passing defense DVOA and fourth in special teams DVOA.

Five weeks isn’t enough for you? Ok, let’s go back to Week 10, when Christian Watson first stepped onto the scene as a breakout star.

Since then, the Packers are sixth in overall DVOA, seventh in total offense DVOA, eighth in passing offense DVOA, second in rushing offense DVOA, third in passing defense DVOA and sixth in special teams DVOA.

Keep in mind, DVOA is opponent-adjusted. The Packers are 3-1 over the last five weeks and 4-2 since Week 10, and they haven’t necessarily faced a gauntlet schedule down the stretch. But they’ve played exceedingly well even when adjusting for quality of opponent. That’s important when projecting forward.

The offense’s revival has been encouraging. Over the last seven weeks, the Packers rank sixth in expected points added per play on offense, suggesting the offense is truly coming around to end the season.

Even over the past five weeks, the Packers have averaged 27.8 points per game despite Aaron Rodgers having four interceptions and a 85.0 passer rating during the stretch.

Running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have been terrific, the receiving corps finally got healthy and the offensive line settled in. The defense has produced 12 takeaways since Week 10, and Keisean Nixon provided a massive jolt in the return game on special teams.

The numbers paint the picture of a team that has found its footing on offense, can run the football on offense and stop the pass on defense, and will provide winning plays (without disasters) on special teams.

The Packers can be inconsistent and frustrating on both sides of the ball, and this is still one of the worst teams in the NFL defending the run, but they might have found a formula for competing with any team left in the field.

It’s worth noting that over the last seven weeks, the Packers took down the Cowboys in overtime, went punch for punch with the Eagles in Philadelphia and stunned the Dolphins in Miami.

The Packers have a lot of work to do yet – wins over the Vikings and Lions are far from guaranteed – but Green Bay appears to be playing its best ball at the right time. Even as the seventh seed, the Packers could be a dangerous team entering the NFC playoff field.

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A breakdown of where the Vikings units rank after 11 games

The Vikings are still a very divisive team so we took a look at how their units rank across the league

The Minnesota Vikings sit at 9-2 going into week 13 and they are feeling really good about their chances down the stretch.

Not everybody shares that sentiment, however. A lot of analysts believe that the Vikings are not what their record says they are. In my opinion, that narrative isn’t fair and is a relatively lazy one at that.

To further get a better sense of what this team is and how they rank, I took a look at how their units rank across the league.

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What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA say about the Saints going into Week 6

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA and ANY/A say about the Saints and Andy Dalton going into Week 6:

The New Orleans Saints cut their losing streak off at three with a badly-needed home win over the Seattle Seahawks, and some of the growth they’ve displayed in recent weeks can be found in advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, and ANY/A. Things are far from perfect, and there are multiple areas of concern, but some points are beginning to trend in the right direction. Here’s what we’ve learned after Week 5:

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA say about the Saints going into Week 5

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, and ANY/A say about the Saints going into Week 5:

It’s too soon to say the New Orleans Saints have figured anything out or fixed their problems, and we won’t be able to say that until they’ve leveled out the win-loss column. But what we can do is acknowledge the growth they’re making in some areas while continuing to focus on where they can improve. And though they did lose Week 4’s game with the Minnesota Vikings, there are some positive takeaways when you look through the advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, ANY/A, SCIA, and XLRA (okay, those last two were made up). Here’s what we’ve learned:

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA say about the Saints going into Week 4

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, and ANY/A say about the Saints going into Week 4:

We’re almost into Week 4, and things are rough for the New Orleans Saints, which is reflected in the advanced metrics you’ll find orbiting around the NFL. Whether you prefer DVOA, EPA, ANY/A, or something else entirely, we’ve got it collected for you here. Let’s see where the Saitns rank among their peers on offense, defense, and at quarterback:

Advanced stats say surging 49ers present formidable foe for Cowboys

Cowboys scored over 100 more points and allowed less points than SF, but the 49ers hold a slight edge in key win indicators. @ProfessorO_NFL dives into DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity.

The 2021 NFL regular season officially ended with the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys dominating the Philadelphia Eagles in a record-breaking night for quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys were short-handed due to injuries and COVID-19 cases but able to win on Saturday then watch to see if they could move up in NFC seeding. With the Seattle Seahawks beating the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers upsetting the Los Angeles Rams, the Cowboys were able to move from the four seed to the three and will have their sights on the 49ers this Sunday in the opening round of the playoffs.

The 49ers ended their season on a high with a come-from-behind victory. They finished the season third in their division with a 10-7 record but with the sixth seed. They will fly into Dallas with similar momentum as both teams have won four of their last five games.

This matchup features several intriguing storylines, however the one that is sure to garner a lot of attention will be the matchup of Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn facing off with 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons during their best days that included a trip to the Super Bowl. Their knowledge of each other’s schemes and thought processes presents an interesting meeting.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Eagles’ offense has EPA edge, but do Cowboys own Week 18 advanced stat title?

Think the Cowboys have been light years ahead of the Eagles this season? Think again. The stats notebook shows a fairly even matchup between the rivals. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The NFC East features two playoff teams this season in the 11-5 Dallas Cowboys and 9-7 Philadelphia Eagles. With both teams facing injury challenges and COVID zapping their rosters, there has been a lot of chatter regarding how many starters will play and for how long. The word out of Dallas this week has been that the Cowboys plan to play their starters with a goal of winning, but their starters are compromised, especially on defense.

The Cowboys have won four of their last five games but were unable to beat the Arizona Cardinals last week, losing 25-22.  The Eagles are currently on a four-game winning streak, picking up a win over the Washington Football Team last weekend.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Advanced Stats: Cardinals first real Cowboys competition in months

Cowboys and Cardinals split in four critical win indicators with both teams featuring explosive offenses and stingy defenses. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

It’s Week 17 in the 2021 NFL season and the Dallas Cowboys are NFC East Champions. With the division wrapped up, Dallas can focus on seeding from this point onward.  Currently the No. 2 seed via a three-way tiebreaker with the L.A. Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cowboys have the potential to finish anywhere in the top four with two games remaining.

Coming off of a 56-point decimation of the Washington Football Team, the Cowboys are on a four game winning streak and sit at 11-4 on the season. Dallas will host the Arizona Cardinals in a Sunday afternoon game and at home, the Cowboys have averaged 38.4 PPG and 426.1 YPG.

Arizona is 10-5 on the season but have lost five of their last eight games after an impressive 7-0 start to the season. They are one game behind the Rams in the NFC West and currently hold the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals have played particularly well on the road this year with a 7-1 record, averaging 30.3 points per game and 2.5 takeaways in those games.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

They tried it, but Washington can’t compare to Cowboys in advanced analytics

What areas are the WFT competitive with the division-leading Cowboys? A look at EPA, DVOA, Success rate and more metrics for Week 16. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Cowboys have three scenarios for clinching the division this week, and it’s wholly possible their work will be done for them before they hit the field on Sunday night. On Thursday, they earned a spot in the playoffs by virtue of the San Francisco 49ers’ loss at the hand of the Tennessee Titans, but just because others can and have assisted Dallas it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be prepared to handle their own business.

The Dallas Cowboys (10-4) will host the Washington Football Team (6-8) on Sunday Night Football with the opportunity to give Cowboys fans a late Christmas gift.  The Cowboys are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFL and have chance to clinch the divisional title with any of the following scenarios: a win/tie over Washington, a Philadelphia Eagles loss/tie or a combination of 1.5 wins by LV, Jax, LAC, NE, MIN and Atlanta). All of those other contests happen earlier in the day on Sunday, but things still could come down to a divisional matchup.

The Cowboys are riding a three-game-in-three-week road winning streak, the first time they’ve accomplished this feat since 1969. They boast the No. 1 defense in the league on third-down conversions allowed (31.9%) and are tied for No.1 in takeaways with 31 on the season.

The Football Team is in the midst of a five-game stretch of NFC East opponents. They’ve lost the last two games to Dallas and Philadelphia and their playoff odds are getting increasingly smaller with each defeat. Some good news for WFT is that quarterback Taylor Heinicke was removed from COVID protocol and will be eligible to play Sunday Night.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability. Let’s review this week’s edition to see which team will get presents and which will get coal.