It’s Week 17 in the 2021 NFL season and the Dallas Cowboys are NFC East Champions. With the division wrapped up, Dallas can focus on seeding from this point onward. Currently the No. 2 seed via a three-way tiebreaker with the L.A. Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cowboys have the potential to finish anywhere in the top four with two games remaining.
Coming off of a 56-point decimation of the Washington Football Team, the Cowboys are on a four game winning streak and sit at 11-4 on the season. Dallas will host the Arizona Cardinals in a Sunday afternoon game and at home, the Cowboys have averaged 38.4 PPG and 426.1 YPG.
Arizona is 10-5 on the season but have lost five of their last eight games after an impressive 7-0 start to the season. They are one game behind the Rams in the NFC West and currently hold the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals have played particularly well on the road this year with a 7-1 record, averaging 30.3 points per game and 2.5 takeaways in those games.
Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.