Dallas Mavericks betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets – Page 16

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (7-4) travel to AT&T Center Friday to take on the San Antonio Spurs (4-7). Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavs at Spurs odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

With a 10-point loss to the Bulls recently, the Mavericks’ three-game winning streak was snapped. Dallas will come in as the favorite at 7-4, but the Mavs have been far from impressive. Dallas has somehow managed to be 7-4 yet has a -3.1 net rating.

The Spurs on other hand are 4-7 with a 2.3 net rating, basically suggesting they keep games close. San Antonio has disappointed this season, winning just four. They’re led by star G Dejounte Murray.

The last time these two teams met, the Mavericks won 109-108. G Jalen Brunson had 31 points. Murray led the Spurs with 23 as the Spurs had five players score double figures.

Mavericks at Spurs odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Mavericks -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Spurs +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks -2.5 (-115) | Spurs +2.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Mavericks at Spurs key injuries

Mavericks

PF Maxi Kleber (oblique) out

Spurs

C Jakob Poeltl (health and safety protocols) out

Mavericks at Spurs odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Spurs 107, Mavericks 103

Money line

BET on the SPURS (+115) as they’re one of the most complete teams in the NBA. While 4-7 is shocking, the Spurs still do a ton of things well. For starters, they rank second in the league in turnover rate.

They also rank third in field goals attempts and fourth in field goal percentage. Their success on the glass and in the halfcourt hasn’t translated to wins yet, but it should here.

This is a good matchup for San Antonio as Murray’s length (he has a 6-foot-10 wingspan) should give MVP candidate Luka Doncic, who is shooting a career-low 48.5% effecitive field goal percentage, problems.

The Mavs are in the bottom half of the league in offensive and defensive rating. Having already taken down the Spurs twice, they’ll be going for the sweep, which isn’t easy to do in any sport.

Against the spread

PASS on the spread with a heavy lean to Spurs.

I like San Antonio to win outright and suggesting that a repeat of its last matchup happening could calm some fears. However, I like San Antonio at plus money to win.

Over/Under

BET on the UNDER 218.5 (-107) as both the teams’ two previous battles have gone Under this amount.

Furthermore, both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive rebounding rate. With the Spurs not turning the ball over and not getting to the glass, especially down their starting center, expect a low-scoring game.

Playing at Doncic’s tempo, the Mavs rank 23rd in pace. They won’t be the ones wanting a run-and-gun game. Both teams should be slowing it down which should result in a low-scoring affair.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (7-3) visit the “Windy City” Wednesday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off against the Chicago Bulls (7-3) at the United Center. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Bulls odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Dallas has won four of the past five games including three straight against the San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics, and New Orleans Pelicans. The Mavs are 3-7 ATS and 1-8-1 O/U with the 21st-ranked net rating (minus-2.3).

Chicago lost a back-to-back home-and-away to the Philadelphia 76ers before crushing the Brooklyn Nets 118-95 as 1-point home underdogs Monday. The Bulls are 7-3 ATS and 4-6 O/U with the fourth-best net rating (plus-6.9).

The Bulls have beaten the Mavs in three consecutive meetings (3-0 ATS). Chicago guard Zach LaVine put up 24.5 points and 7.5 assists per game with a plus-20 net rating in the two Mavericks-Bulls games last season.

Mavericks at Bulls odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12 p.m. ET.

Money line: Mavericks +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Bulls -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +3.5 (-107) | Bulls -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Bulls key injuries

Mavericks

PF Maxi Kleber (oblique) out

Bulls

PF Patrick Williams (wrist) out

Mavericks at Bulls odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bulls 108, Mavericks 106

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Mavericks (+135) because I’m going to place a small wager on Dallas plus the points and generally like to sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when taking them to cover. However, I see a lot more value in the Mavericks’ spread and the total.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-107) because the Bulls struggle to defend what Dallas does frequently.

For instance, the Mavs attempt the highest volume of shots from the post, the sixth-most off-the-dribble 3-pointers, and the eighth-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers (according to ShotQuality.com). Dallas is going against a Bulls team that ranks 20th or worse in defensive efficiency vs. those three shot types.

Furthermore, according to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash is on Chicago at the time of publishing. It’s far more profitable to fade a crowd of people in sports betting rather than follow it.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 215.5 (-110) and this is my best bet in the Mavericks-Bulls game for various reasons.

First, both offenses run a lot of action through the pick-and-roll ball handler and both defenses are above-average in points per possession vs. the pick-and-roll ball handler. Also, both teams do a good job preventing opponents from shooting 3-pointers and each operates at a bottom-10 pace.

Additionally, the Under has cashed in eight of Dallas’s previous 10 games overall and eight of Chicago’s past ten games vs. teams with a winning record.

Finally, more than 90% of the action is on the Over (according to Pregame.com) despite all of this.

Presumably, the market sees elite scorers like Dallas’s Luka Doncic and Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan and figures more points. But, since the contrarian mindset is profitable in sports betting, let’s fade that notion.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New Orleans Pelicans (1-9) travel to American Airlines Center Monday to take on the Dallas Mavericks (6-3). Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pelicans at Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Coming into this game, the New Orleans Pelicans will once again be down their two best players, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Ingram is technically listed as questionable, but it seems more likely he sits.

However, they have shown potential even without them, staying close in the first half with the Warriors and the Kings. The Pels are one of just three one-win teams remaining.

They’ll be taking on a surging Mavericks group that is picking up the pace. Dallas didn’t start off hot but has won its last two and three of its last four. Behind MVP candidate Luka Doncic, the Mavs will be strong favorites in this matchup. Doncic sits 12th in points and 14th in assists per game.

Pelicans at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:55 a.m. ET.

Money line: Pelicans +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Mavericks -475 (bet $475 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Pelicans +9.5 (-115) | Mavericks -9.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Pelicans at Mavericks key injuries

Pelicans

SF Brandon Ingram (ankle) questionable
PF Zion Williamson (foot) out

Mavericks

PF Maxi Kleber (oblique) out

Road at home odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 104, Pelicans 102

Money line

PASS on the money line.

This should get a nice boost if Ingram is ruled active, but regardless, there isn’t much value here on either side of it. At the very least, one can consider the +340, but only if Ingram plays. Otherwise, turn your attention to the points.

Against the spread

BET on the PELICANS +9.5 (-115) as this may not be a great matchup for Doncic.

The Pelicans are laced with quick guards like Devonte’ Graham and Josh Hart, both of which can defend at a high level. Hart is an extremely talented defender.

Having Hart defend Doncic should work wonder. Also, big man Jonas Valančiūnas has looked as good as ever, averaging 19.3 points per game for the Pelicans.

Without a traditional center outside of the massive 7-foot-4 Boban Marjanović, the Mavs may get eaten alive by the Pels big man. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating and offensive rating.

Hanging almost 10 points on a team that’s not as dominant as the public thought may be a good idea. The Mavs are just 2-7 ATS while the Pels are 4-6. Hammer this, and you may get even luckier if Ingram plays.

Over/Under

BET on the UNDER 210.5 (-108) as the better side. With Unders hitting at almost a 60 percent rate, the sportsbooks are having to adjust.

The new rule change is impacting free-throw shooting a bit more than most thought it would. Doncic has been a main culprit of that impact, shooting two fewer free throws a game.

Despite the low number, this game still has slow, methodical style written all over it. Big Val against the half-court wizards, Doncic is the matchup unless Ingram plays.

That said, the Pelicans may rank 14th in pace, but they also are among the five worst teams in turnover rate. On the other hand, the Mavs play a slower game, a bottom 10 in pace.

Overall, combine the two, and I expect the Under to be the better pick in this one. The two teams are 3-14-2 on the total this season.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Celtics (4-5) visit the Dallas Mavericks (5-3) Saturday for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Center. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Boston has won back-to-back road games over the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat entering Saturday. In fact, the Celtics have won and covered in four of their last five road games. Boston is 4-5 ATS and 4-5 O/U.

Dallas has alternated between winning and losing each of its last five games with the latest being a 109-108 victory at the San Antonio Spurs. But, the Mavs failed to cover as 2-point favorites and Dallas is just 2-6 ATS and 1-7 O/U on the year.

The Mavs won and covered both regular-season meetings with the Celtics last year.

Celtics at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:42 a.m. ET.

Money line: Celtics +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Mavericks -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +3.5 (-108) | Mavericks -3.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Celtics at Mavericks key injuries

Celtics

SF Jaylen Brown (hamstring) out

Mavericks

SG Reggie Bullock (face) questionable
PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) questionable
C Maxi Kleber (back) out

Celtics at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 105, Mavericks 100

Money line

Since I “like” Boston plus the points and Dallas isn’t as good as its record indicates, I’ll “SPRINKLE” on the CELTICS (+133).

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time stats, the Mavs rank 24th in points per 100 possessions differential at minus-5.7 points while the Celtics rank 12th at plus-1.6 points.

Dallas has the highest win differential (plus-2.4) based on their efficiency differential meaning the Mavs have 2.4 more wins than they should. Also, Dallas has the worst spread differential in the NBA at minus-7.6.

On the other hand, Boston has a minus-1 win differential, which ranks 27th, so the Celtics are more efficient than their record indicates, athe absence of Brown could be addition by subtraction for the Celtics.

Brown and Jayson Tatum play a similar style of basketball and occupy a lot of the same space on the floor. Since only Tatum is playing Saturday, Boston’s offense might be a little less clunky.

Moreover, Brown’s replacement in Boston’s starting 5 is PG Dennis Schroder who played very well against Dallas’s Luka Doncic last season when Schroder was on the Los Angeles Lakers.

Last season, Schroder averaged 19.7 points per game on 54.8% shooting with 9.7 assists per in three games vs. Dallas. More importantly, Schroder spent the most time guarding Luka in those games. Luka only scored a combined 13 points on 3-of-16 shooting in their three meetings last season.

Against the spread

Definitely BET CELTICS +3.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their money line based on all the previous analysis and to maximize our handicap.

Plus there’s been a “sharp line move” towards the Celtics who opened up as 5-point underdogs but have been steamed down to the current price. Let’s follow the money and get down on the CELTICS +3.5 (-108).

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 210.5 (-112) for a small wager because we are getting to the party way late and I hate following a crowd of people in sports betting. According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered a the time of writing is on the Under, which has steamed the total down from the 215-point opener.

Both teams run a below-average pace and predominantly play halfcourt offenses. Each has a ball-dominant wing that operates mostly in the mid-range and draws out possessions, and if there’s an off-shooting quarter between both sides then the Over almost has no chance.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (4-2) host the Miami Heat (5-1) Tuesday at the American Airlines Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Miami is a winner of four straight games with the latest being a 129-103 beatdown of the Memphis Grizzlies Saturday as a 3.5-point road underdog.

Heat wing Jimmy Butler is currently third in PER (30.3) while averaging 25.3 points per game (PPG), 7.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. Miami is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) and 2-4 Over/Under (O/U).

Dallas held off the Sacramento Kings 105-99 Sunday, barely covering as a 4.5-point home favorite. The Mavs have won four of their last five games, but are just 2-4 ATS and 0-6 O/U with the 23rd-ranked net rating in the Association.

The Mavs won and covered in both regular-season meetings with the Heat last year, the first of which was against a Miami team at full health (New Year’s Day, 2021).

Heat at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -145 (bet $145 to win $105) | Mavericks +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat -2.5 (-115) | Mavericks +2.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Heat at Mavericks key injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (knee) questionable
SG Max Struss (knee) out

Mavericks

PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) out
PG Trey Burke (health and safety protocols) out
C Maxi Kleber (back) out

Heat at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 107, Heat 101

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Mavericks (+120) because Dallas +2.5 has a lot more value. If Dallas’s spread drops to 2 or fewer points then I’d bet a half-unit on the Mavericks’ money line. At the moment, let’s just stick with Dallas plus the points.

Against the spread

BET the MAVERICKS +2.5 (-105) for 1 unit because the contrarian mindset has been profitable thus far in the NBA. Fading the more popular side over the past five days is 24-13 ATS (64.8% cover rate).

Nearly three-fourths of the market is betting the Heat according to pregame.com. Wait until closer to tip-off before making a wager in case there’s a better price on the Mavs.

This feels like a buy-low spot for Dallas and Miami is due for some regression. According to ShotQuality.com, the Mavs have the fourth-best shot quality per possession and the Heat are ranked 16th.

Miami also allows the most 3-point attempts per game in the league so Dallas will have opportunities to break out of its shooting slump.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 210.5 (-115) for a tiny wager — if at all — because Miami is first in defensive rating, Dallas is 10th in defensive rating and there’s been “sharp line movement” towards the Under. The Heat-Mavericks total opened at 212.5 but has been steamed down by the market.

Also, the Heat thrive on getting easy buckets that I don’t think will be there against the Mavs.

Miami ranks fourth in fastbreak points per game and ninth in points off of turnovers per game, while Dallas ranks fifth in fastbreak points allowed per game and first in points off turnovers allowed per game.

However, since we are getting to the party late and I much prefer the Mavs plus the points and I’d only put a small bet on the UNDER 210.5 (-115).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

On Sunday, the Sacramento Kings (3-2) will visit the Dallas Mavericks (3-2). The game will tip at 3:30 p.m. ET and will be held at American Airlines Center. Below, we look at the Kings vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Coming off a 3-point road win over the Suns and a 4-point road win against the Pelicans, the Kings have looked good this season.

They’re led by G De’Aaron Fox with major contributions from F Harrison Barnes and G Buddy Hield. Their last two first-round picks, G Tyrese Haliburton and G Davion Mitchell, both have also been key factors in their early-season success.

As for the Mavs, they’ve struggled this season despite their plus-.500 record. Early-season MVP candidate G Luka Doncic has averaged under 25 points per game (PPG) while no other Mav has topped 15.0 per game.

The two playoff-contending teams they’ve faced (Nuggets and Hawks) beat them by an average of 25.5 PPG. This will be a solid test as the Kings have shown major improvements this season.

Kings at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:59 p.m. ET.

Money line: Kings +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mavericks -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Kings +4.5 (-110) | Mavericks -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Kings at Mavericks key injuries

Kings

None impacting gambling odds

Mavericks

PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) questionable

Kings at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Kings 108, 104

Money line

“LEAN” to the KINGS (+155) as the Mavericks really haven’t shown enough to be giving a road team this type of value. Also, the Kings rank 12th in three-point shooting percentage and three-point shots per game.

With Hield, Haliburton, and Barnes all capable of lighting an opponent up, the Mavs, who rank 24th in opponents’ three-point percentage, don’t match up favorably.

While the value is there for the money line, I’d still lean to the points below.

Against the spread

BET on the KINGS +4.5 (-110) as their defensive tenacity should limit the Mavericks. With that in mind, I think the speedy Kings’ guards, Mitchell and Fox, will be able to aggravate Doncic.

Also, Doncic has struggled since the new implementation of the change in officiating for unnatural offensive movements. He went from shooting 7.1 free throws per game to just 4.4.

With two premier defenders, the Kings should be able to limit the Mavericks’ three-point shooting, which they rely on heavily. The Mavs hoist up the third-most threes in the Association.

Given the Kings’ backcourt defenders and the Mavs reliance on the three along with Doncic’s slow start to the season, I’m backing Sacramento in this one.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 217.5 (-108) as both teams have struggled to score the ball. The Mavericks have scored over 105 just once, and while they’re a high-volume shooting side, they haven’t managed to connect on many.

Despite being 3-2 each, both teams rank outside the top 15 in net rating, meaning they’re getting blown out in losses. With both teams outside the top ten in scoring, I’m only tossing half a unit on the total as the lethal shooters could get hot.

Following the trend of the season, the Under is consistently the better play.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (3-1) travels to the “Mile High City” to play the Denver Nuggets (2-2) at Ball Arena Friday. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas rallied back from a 20-point first-half deficit to beat the San Antonio Spurs Thursday 104-99 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. The Mavs are just 1-3 against the spread (ATS), and the Under has cashed in all four of their games.

Denver has lost two in a row, first to the Cleveland Cavaliers 99-87 Monday then to the Utah Jazz 122-110 as 7-point underdogs the next night. The major story from Tuesday’s Nuggets-Jazz game was reigning MVP Nikola Jokic exiting the game early after twisting his knee.

The Mavs won and covered two of their three regular-season meetings with the Nuggets last year.

Dallas’ Luka Doncic averaged 31.3 points per game (PPG), 8.3 rebounds (RPG) and 13.7 assists per game (APG) with a plus-14 net rating in three games vs. Denver last season. Jokic put up 28.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG and 6.3 APG vs. Dallas last season but had a minus-9 net rating.

Mavericks at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Mavericks +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Nuggets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +1.5 (-107) | Nuggets -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Mavericks at Nuggets key injuries

Mavericks

PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) questionable

Nuggets

C Nikola Jokic (knee) questionable

Mavericks at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 108, Nuggets 103

Money line

BET the MAVERICKS (+102) for 1 unit because there’s a good chance the Nuggets won’t rush Jokic back for this game and Dallas won last year’s season series vs. Denver with Jokic in the lineup for all three meetings.

Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” side of the market is betting the Mavs early on while the public is split down the middle on this game, according to Pregame.com. Also, Dallas has a slightly higher net rating and rebounding rate and a much better assist-to-turnover rate than Denver.

To be fair, this is a coin-flip game, and it’s safer to wait until the final injury report before making a wager. But, I’m gambling on the MAVERICKS (+102) vs. the Nuggets without their two best players (perhaps).

Against the spread

PASS since the Mavericks +1.5 (-107) doesn’t offer much insurance for our Dallas money line wager. For what it’s worth, the Mavs have the second-best cover rate in road games since the beginning of 2019 at 44-28-2 ATS. Also, the Nuggets are just 30-33-2 ATS as a home favorite over that span.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 215.5 (-112) for a half unit only because we are getting to the party late since the Mavericks-Nuggets opened with a 218.5-point total, but the market has steamed it down to the current number.

However, there’s a ton of basketball logic to backing the Under in this game. For instance, both teams are in the top-11 of defensive efficiency, play at a below-average pace and are bottom-5 in offensive FT/FGA rate. On top of that, these teams have a combined 1-7 O/U record this season.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (2-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (1-3) Thursday at the American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Spurs vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

After smacking around the Orlando Magic in their season opener, the Spurs have lost three in a row (1-2 against the spread) to the Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers.

Dallas has won back-to-back games aginst the Toronto Raptors and Houston Rockets since losing its opener to the Atlanta Hawks 113-87. The Mavs are 20th in net rating with the third-worst effective field goal shooting (eFG%).

The Mavs won and covered two of their three regular-season meetings with the Spurs last season. Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic averaged 29.0 points per game (PPG) with 8.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists per game in the three meetings.

Spurs at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Spurs +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mavericks -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Spurs +5.5 (-105) | Mavericks -5.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Spurs at Mavericks key injuries

Spurs

SF Doug McDermott (knee) out

Mavericks

PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) out

Spurs at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 109, Spurs 106

Money line

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Spurs (+200) since I “lean” to San Antonio plus the points. The Spurs have a massive coaching edge and a plus-net rating despite their 1-3 record and last three opponents being playoff teams last season.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the SPURS +5.5 (-105) for a half-unit only because a slight majority of the market is backing San Antonio but there’s “reverse line movement” heading towards Dallas, according to Pregame.com. It’s always suspicious when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Two of the three Spurs-Mavericks meetings last season were decided by five or fewer points. Furthermore, Dallas’s offense has shot poorly out the gate this season and San Antonio’s defense has done a good job running opponents off the 3-point line.

The Mavs rank 28th in eFG% and the Spurs have the 11th-best defensive 3-point shooting and hold opponents to third-fewest 3-point attempts per game.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 220.5 (-115) for 1 unit as my favorite play in the Spurs-Mavericks game.

The Under has been hit by “sharp line movement”, as the market is pretty much split on the total but nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Under according to Pregame.com. The pro-Under money has steamed the total down from the 221.5-point opener to the current price.

San Antonio scores the second-most points per possession in transition, but Dallas gives up the third-fewest points per possession in transition on defense.

On top of that, we have the aforementioned strength-on-weakness matchup with San Antonio’s strong 3-point defense vs. Dallas’s poor 3-point shooting thus far.

Let’s follow the money and BET 1 unit UNDER 220.5 (-115).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Houston Rockets (1-2) will travel to American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks (1-1) Tuesday. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Rockets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Dallas Mavericks have one of the preseason MVP favorites in PG Luka Doncic but have struggled so far this season, beating the Toronto Raptors by 8 and losing to the Atlanta Hawks by 26. The Mavs have averaged just 95 points per game, so PF Kristaps Porzingis and company haven’t helped out Doncic much.

The Rockets are full of rising stars. PF Christian Wood leads the team, but he will soon be eclipsed by No. 2 overall pick SG Jalen Green, who exploded onto the scene with 8 threes last game. We’ll see if he can keep up that as they enter a hostile American Airlines Center.

Rockets at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 p.m. ET.

Money line: Rockets +500 (bet $100 to win $500) | Mavericks -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Rockets +10.5 (-107) | Mavericks -10.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 221.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Rockets at Mavericks key injuries

Rockets

None affecting gambling odds

Mavericks

None affecting gambling odds

Rockets at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 110, Rockets 108

Money line

PASS on the money line.

If anything, I might toss a partial-unit bet on the Rockets at +500 as they’re coming off a complete manhandling of the Oklahoma City Thunder. At full strength and with rookie G Jalen Green surging the Rockets should be a capable opponent.

Nonetheless, I’d still pass on the money line.

Against the spread

BET on the ROCKETS +10.5 (-107) as the best value in this match.

The line was at +11 earlier, and without any injuries, there is reason to assume bets are raining in on Houston.

Why not though? Wood is averaging 22 and 10, Green is finding his rhythm, and both Ja’Sean Tate and Kevin Porter Jr. are score-first, crafty guards.

The Mavericks just haven’t shown enough this season. Stars like Doncic that typically get calls for their tricky ball handling and leaning into shots have struggled.

Doncic is averaging just 22.5 points per game despite being a preseason MVP favorite, and he needs to step up for the Mavericks to become a contender.

Given his struggles, the inconsistency of PF Kristaps Porzingis, and the rising stars Houston will be bringing to Dallas, the Rockets spread is an enticing play.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 221.5 (-115) as it’s getting a little juice and is the better bet. With the Mavericks ranked 26th in pace their style should dictate this game.

A halfcourt-heavy offense led by Doncic, aided by G Tim Hardaway Jr. and filled with sharpshooters, Dallas prefers to beat you down with screens and post-ups. It should also be good for the Under here even if it works.

With many young players like Green, Tate and Porter Jr., Houston is a bit too inconsistent for me to think it could consistently put up more than 110. They’ve scored more than 106 points just once — a 33-point blowout over the Thunder where they posted 124.

With that in mind, the Under is the better play.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks open up their 2021-22 seasons with a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off at State Farm Arena in Atlanta Thursday. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas blew a 2-0 lead in its Western Conference first-round playoff series as it lost in seven games to the Los Angeles Clippers last year. The Mavs finished last season 45-34 overall, 38-41 against the spread (ATS) and 37-42 Over/Under (O/U), including the postseason.

Atlanta fans are hoping their team’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season is a sign of things to come. The Hawks were 51-39 overall, 49-40-1 ATS 39-49-2 O/U last season (including the playoffs).

The Hawks lost in six games in the conference finals to the champion Milwaukee Bucks after beating the New York Knicks in the first round and upsetting the Philadelphia 76ers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

The Mavericks won both regular-season meetings against the Hawks last year but Atlanta covered the second game as a 3.5-point road underdog in a 118-117 loss.

Guards Luka Doncic and Trae Young were traded for each other on the night of the 2018 NBA Draft. They’ve played four times thus far and the Mavs are 3-1 in those games.

Mavericks at Hawks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mavericks +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Hawks -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +2.5 (-108) | Hawks -2.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Mavericks at Hawks key injuries

Mavericks

None.

Hawks

SF Danilo Gallinari (shoulder) questionable
SG Lou Williams (hip) questionable
C Onyeka Okongwu (shoulder) out
PF Jalen Johnson (ankle) probable

Mavericks at Hawks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Hawks 113, Mavericks 108

Money line

BET the HAWKS (-140) for 1 unit because they have a deeper roster and we have to see how the Mavericks look under first-year head coach Jason Kidd.

Dallas is very reliant on Doncic and I have little confidence the Mavs can win if he’s not the best player on the floor. While Luka is the best player on the floor in this game the next six best players are on Atlanta’s roster.

The Hawks were 29-13 overall as a favorite and 21-5 overall as a home favorite last season (including the playoffs) despite changing coaches in the middle of the season.

I’m higher on Atlanta’s roster, continuity and coaching staff than Dallas’s so I’m willing to spend a little more for the HAWKS (-140) outright.

Against the spread

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Hawks -2.5 (-112) only because I’d prefer to lay it with Atlanta’s money line than bet the spread.

I could understand playing the spread instead if you felt the Hawks (-140) straight-up is a little too pricey. However, Atlanta is the correct side and the best option is the money line.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 224.5 (-108) for 1 unit despite the Mavericks-Hawks total being kind of low considering these teams combined for 235 and 238 points in their two regular-season meetings last year.

Dallas was 5-14 O/U as a road underdog in 2020-21 and Atlanta was 8-17-1 O/U as a home favorite with a minus-7.2 total margin.

More than 95% of the money at the time of publishing is on the Over but the total hasn’t really budged from the opener.

Granted, it’s early in the betting day and if that money keeps pouring in on the Over the House will adjust. However, it would appear as though oddsmakers are comfy with the total they set for the Mavericks-Hawks.

Let’s fade the market and BET UNDER 224.5 (-108).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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