The Boston Celtics (4-5) visit the Dallas Mavericks (5-3) Saturday for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Center. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Boston has won back-to-back road games over the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat entering Saturday. In fact, the Celtics have won and covered in four of their last five road games. Boston is 4-5 ATS and 4-5 O/U.
Dallas has alternated between winning and losing each of its last five games with the latest being a 109-108 victory at the San Antonio Spurs. But, the Mavs failed to cover as 2-point favorites and Dallas is just 2-6 ATS and 1-7 O/U on the year.
The Mavs won and covered both regular-season meetings with the Celtics last year.
Celtics at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:42 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Celtics +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Mavericks -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Celtics +3.5 (-108) | Mavericks -3.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Celtics at Mavericks key injuries
Celtics
- SF Jaylen Brown (hamstring) out
Mavericks
- SG Reggie Bullock (face) questionable
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) questionable
- C Maxi Kleber (back) out
Celtics at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Celtics 105, Mavericks 100
Money line
Since I “like” Boston plus the points and Dallas isn’t as good as its record indicates, I’ll “SPRINKLE” on the CELTICS (+133).
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time stats, the Mavs rank 24th in points per 100 possessions differential at minus-5.7 points while the Celtics rank 12th at plus-1.6 points.
Dallas has the highest win differential (plus-2.4) based on their efficiency differential meaning the Mavs have 2.4 more wins than they should. Also, Dallas has the worst spread differential in the NBA at minus-7.6.
On the other hand, Boston has a minus-1 win differential, which ranks 27th, so the Celtics are more efficient than their record indicates, athe absence of Brown could be addition by subtraction for the Celtics.
Brown and Jayson Tatum play a similar style of basketball and occupy a lot of the same space on the floor. Since only Tatum is playing Saturday, Boston’s offense might be a little less clunky.
Moreover, Brown’s replacement in Boston’s starting 5 is PG Dennis Schroder who played very well against Dallas’s Luka Doncic last season when Schroder was on the Los Angeles Lakers.
Last season, Schroder averaged 19.7 points per game on 54.8% shooting with 9.7 assists per in three games vs. Dallas. More importantly, Schroder spent the most time guarding Luka in those games. Luka only scored a combined 13 points on 3-of-16 shooting in their three meetings last season.
Against the spread
Definitely BET CELTICS +3.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their money line based on all the previous analysis and to maximize our handicap.
Plus there’s been a “sharp line move” towards the Celtics who opened up as 5-point underdogs but have been steamed down to the current price. Let’s follow the money and get down on the CELTICS +3.5 (-108).
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 210.5 (-112) for a small wager because we are getting to the party way late and I hate following a crowd of people in sports betting. According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered a the time of writing is on the Under, which has steamed the total down from the 215-point opener.
Both teams run a below-average pace and predominantly play halfcourt offenses. Each has a ball-dominant wing that operates mostly in the mid-range and draws out possessions, and if there’s an off-shooting quarter between both sides then the Over almost has no chance.
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