With one week left in the college football season, bowl pictures are beginning to shape up. Here is what every Big Ten team should root fo.
We have already looked at what Ohio State should root for this week. As the Buckeyes have gone undefeated until now and the Playoff picture is clearer, Ohio State’s interests are becoming simpler. There is plenty for the rest of the Big Ten to root for, though, especially as the bowl picture becomes clearer. There isn’t much for the lower Big Ten teams to root for, so I’m only going to deal with those teams that are (potentially) bowl-eligible. I will go more or less in reverse order of the current Big Ten standings, but Indiana is by far the most interesting, so I’ll deal with them before Illinois.
Michigan State Spartans
This is simple for the Spartans. Win this week and go bowling. Depending on what fans want in a bowl game, other rooting interests can be different. Do you want to face another 6-6 P5 team? Root for North Carolina and Boston College to win this week. (And I guess for Clemson to lose to South Carolina to potentially free up another ACC bowl spot.) If you’d rather see Michigan State play a more winnable game against a replacement team, then root against North Carolina and Boston College instead.
Indiana Hoosiers
The last time Indiana was in anything approximating a major bowl game was the 1990 Peach Bowl. Well, due to a weird confluence of circumstances, the Hoosiers are looking at an Outback Bowl bid this year. How and why could the Big Ten’s seventh-best team end up in a New Years’ Day (and the conference’s third/fourth-best) bowl game? Let’s break it down.
The Big Ten’s current six-year bowl contract states that each bowl must have at least five different teams over the six year. The only Big Ten bowl partner that has to worry about meeting this criteria is the Outback Bowl. The Outback Bowl took Iowa both last year and after the 2016 season, and therefore has only had four Big Ten teams in the last five year. The other three teams were Wisconsin, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern won’t be in any bowl game this year, obviously. However, this means that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa cannot be selected for this year’s Outback Bowl.
So, what other teams would be selected in front of Indiana? The other top-level options are Ohio State, Penn State, and Minnesota. It seems nearly impossible for Ohio State to not make an NY6 Bowl. So all Indiana needs is for Penn State and Minnesota to be selected for NY6 bowls or the Citrus Bowl, and Indiana is the only real choice left for the Outback Bowl.
What should Indiana fans look for to get this outcome?
First of all, Ohio State should beat Michigan to keep the Wolverines out of the NY6 and Citrus Bowl pool. Then Minnesota should beat Wisconsin. If those two happen, Indiana is a near-lock for the Outback Bowl. The Ohio State-Minnesota winner will make the Playoff and the loser heads to the Rose Bowl; Penn State will either be in the Orange Bowl or Citrus Bowl. And even if Big Ten bowls slide up a slot or two (say, if both Ohio State and Minnesota make the Playoff and/or if Penn State gets the Cotton Bowl), Indiana will still get the Outback Bowl. Michigan and/or Wisconsin would move up into the next NY6 bowl or Citrus Bowl, which still leaves Indiana as the best option for the Outback Bowl.
In fact, even if Indiana loses to Purdue, the Hoosiers are possibly headed to the Outback Bowl. Illinois would be competition for the spot, though, so Northwestern taking out Illinois would be important. Of course, there is a chance the Outback Bowl would request a 6-6 Michigan State team (or Nebraska) over Indiana, so Indiana should just take care of business and beat Purdue.
If, however, Wisconsin beats Minnesota or Michigan beats Ohio State, then things get complicated. As long as Penn State or Minnesota doesn’t get pushed out of the NY6 and Citrus Bowls, Indiana will get the Outback. If, however, one of those two falls far enough, that team will almost certainly get priority for the Outback Bowl over Indiana.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois is very likely locked into the Pinstripe Bowl (very slight change at the Redbox Bowl). While the Big Ten bowl pool doesn’t officially have any real hierarchy, in reality those are the two lowest. And it makes sense–those will also have the weaker opponents, which will provide better games. The Pinstripe Bowl will have a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, while the Redbox Bowl will feature a middle-of-the-pack Pac 12 team. Either should be a good opponent for this Illinois team.
If Illinois fans want a more prestigious bowl, though, just look at everything in the last section about Indiana. Root for all of that, plus an Indiana loss to Purdue. If that happens, 7-5 Illinois might just be the Outback Bowl’s (and the Big Ten’s) preferred choice.
Next… Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan
