Tag: ATS

NFL picks against the spread, Week 18: betting on backups, incentives and playoff hopes

The final week of the NFL regular season just might be the hardest one to bet on

Somehow, someway, we made it to Week 18.

By Sunday night most of the league’s fans will be looking forward to draft season while the rest focus on the postseason. We just don’t know what that full picture looks like yet.

It’s an odd week to bet on the NFL overall as teams with plenty to play for matchup against teams looking to play spoiler. Backups and third-stringers line up across from starters looking to hit their contract incentives. All of that is taken into consideration as we pick against the spread one last time in the regular season.

Name Last Week YTD
Christian D’Andrea 7-9 131-118-7
Carolina Darney 12-4 129-120-7
Prince Grimes 10-6 127-122-7
Blake Schuster 11-5 120-129-7
Charles Curtis N/A 118-115-7
Robert Zeglinski N/A 116-117-7

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The Bills did the impossible. They demolished Bill Belichick and the spread.

The city of Buffalo finally gets one over when it matters most on Bill Belichick.

For years, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots made it their mission to embarrass the Buffalo Bills. Season after season, what was supposed to be a heated division “rivalry” in practice, turned out to be more of a relaxed tune-up for New England. In Belichick’s entire tenure (starting in 2000), he had only lost to the Bills five times. The Bills were his punching bag, and they could not punch back for the life of them.

With all that vital history laid out, Saturday night had to be cathartic for the greater Buffalo area.

The Bills beat the Patriots in the Wild Card Game. Okay, Josh Allen is a great quarterback. That’s not exactly surprising. Moving on. What’s next?

Wait, sorry. Scratch that. The Bills gave the Patriots an absolute beatdown in the Wild Card Game.

A 47-17 win. For the Buffalo Bills. On a Bill Belichick-coached team. In a playoff game. (Also, by far the worst postseason loss for the Patriots since a 46-10 thrashing in Super Bowl XX where the ’85 Bears scraped Tony Eason off the Superdome turf.)

It reads even crazier in text than seeing it happen live.

What might be even more insane, considering that whole Belichick context thing, is how the Bills smashed major pre-game bets. (Odds courtesy of Tipico.)

A -4.5 spread in favor of the Bills? Obliterated.

A pre-game Over/Under of 42.5? Well, the Bills kind of got there on their own, now didn’t they?

Again, in case it hasn’t been emphasized enough: This was the Buffalo Bills against Bill Belichick. It boggles the mind.

For more of a picture of how the Bills did whatever they wanted against one of their most famous, entrenched tormentors, take this tweet from ESPN Stats and Info.

The Bills were so dominant that they extended their own extremely new Super Bowl era record by scoring a touchdown on their first six possessions (!).

How about how the Bills faced only six proper third downs—meaning chunk play after chunk play came primarily on first and second down—against what was the NFL’s No. 4 defense?

There’s well-deserved vengeance, and there’s becoming an intimidating, unruly bully yourself.

Last but not least, to really drive the point home: With the blowout victory, the Bills not only handed Belichick his worst loss ever in January or otherwise, but it’s also worth noting they’ve always been the team to give him his worst, most cemented defeats as coach of the Patriots.

Bananas (or wings?) all around.

Buffalo celebrates and starts thinking Super Bowl while Belichick’s Patriots lick their wounds. Did you ever think you’d read a sentence like that?

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Congrats to the Lions, who now own the longest playoff drought with the Bengals’ win

The Bengals win and the Lions somehow keep losing even when they’re not playing.

There are no shortages of NFL fanbases who understand nothing but playoff pain. In a league where any opportunity at a postseason win can be very few and far between, the sting of a mid-January loss is a unique hurt.

It lingers.

Before Saturday afternoon, the Cincinnati Bengals and their poor fans were, quite frankly, unmatched in winter misery. Fortunately for everyone in southwestern Ohio, they can finally rip the collective monkey off their back.

Led by stellar performances from Joe Burrow in their first playoff game, the Bengals beat the Raiders, 26-19.

Here’s the glorious moment of euphoria, courtesy of linebacker Germaine Pratt.

Cincinnati now has its first playoff win in over three decades. That’s after seven straight losses (!) in the Wild Card round, from Carson Palmer to Andy Dalton. It is the first time that the Bengals advance further in the postseason since 1990.

More importantly, it ends the NFL’s longest playoff-win drought at 32 years. For a frame of reference, the last time the Bengals played on the second weekend of the playoffs, Back To The Future Part III was the top movie of the U.S. box office, and Phil Collins led the charts with his ever-smooth symphony, “Another Day in Paradise.” What a time to be alive.

Where it gets interesting is what the Bengals’ victory means for another perennially downtrodden franchise: The Detroit Lions.

With Cincinnati and their Golden Boy Quarterback no longer having to sweat big January wins, the spotlight centers on the Detroit faithful—now the leaders of the losers with pro football’s longest playoff-win drought at a frigid 31 years.

For a frame of reference, the last time the Lions won a playoff game, the No. 1 movie of the box office was Hook, not exactly Robin Williams’ magnum opus, and the top song was Michael Jackson’s “Black and White.” Woof. (To be clear, both being decidedly less cool than Michael J. Fox and Mr. Collins, near their respective peaks.)

Time will tell whether the Lions can exorcise their demons in the coming years. After a 3-13-1 season under first-year head coach Dan Campbell, it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen any time soon.

We can assure you, everyone’s knee caps are safe.

Suffice to say: Barry Sanders is not walking through that door, and Calvin Johnson is not walking through that door. And if the Lions expect them to walk through that door, well, they’ve got bigger issues than we all thought. That would be quite the accomplishment for the already hapless Lions.

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Erroneous whistle on Bengals touchdown sparks controversy in NFL wild card game

The Bengals got a touchdown despite an early whistle, the Raiders fumed, and a playoff game may have shifted in the balance.

The NFL playoffs kicked off on Saturday afternoon with the Bengals and Raiders leading off the festivities. And so far, it really couldn’t be going any better for Cincy, a franchise notorious for postseason failure. A sterling first half—where the Bengals scored on each of their first four possessions—seemed as if they wanted to exorcise all the demons of Dalton, Palmer, and Esiason’s past.

And they appeared to have a little help from the referees, too.

With Cincy looking to pad a lead during a two-minute drill, Burrow rolled to his right and fired a dart to Tyler Boyd in the end zone. There was just one problem: An official on the sideline blew his whistle early because he thought Burrow stepped out of bounds before he threw the ball.

Oops.

Here’s another angle, in slo-mo glory (or agony, if you’re a Raiders fan).

While the replay shows that Burrow was clearly in-bounds, and thus the play (and touchdown) would count under normal circumstances, the rules are not as kind. And rules are rules.

As dug up by ESPN’s Kevin Seifert, the official NFL rulebook states that if a pass is in the air and a whistle happens to go off, the play should be blown dead, no questions asked. NBC’s Mike Tirico also confirmed on air that “by rule, they cannot have a touchdown on that play.”

Uh, that did not happen. While there may have been a second or third thought about the decision, the officiating crew gave the Bengals the touchdown anyway. A ruling that might prove to be pivotal in a neck-and-neck game.

With the touchdown, the Bengals’ spread moved to -16.5, and their moneyline jumped to -2500, at Tipico Sportsbook .

While there’s still a lot of ballgame to go, relevant bettors, and Raiders fans everywhere, have a bone to pick with the officials. Especially as the Over/Under 48.5 comes into play.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

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NFL Wild Card: From the Chiefs’ generosity to Jimmy G., every team’s fatal flaw

The Chiefs are very generous with the ball, the Rams need Robert Woods, and other reasons why this year’s Wild Card teams aren’t playing deep into January.

As much as we can learn to appreciate every NFL team playing every weekend throughout the fall, there’s something different about playoff football. Aside from the obvious aspects of sudden death glory (ho-hum), January is where every team thinks they have a shot at winning the Super Bowl. Of course, most of those teams’ aspirations will prove to be delusional and utterly misguided in due time. Reality is often disappointing.

But the social media hype videos, the “nobody believes in us” speeches (even when you’ve won your gauntlet of a division)—they all last forever. That’s the magic of the postseason: Truly anything can happen. Plus, you can make up critics who don’t exist—what a dream.

With Wild Card Weekend on the very near horizon, let’s examine the most significant reason, the fatal flaw, that may prevent each of the 12 teams from making a deep playoff run.

Wild Card odds, courtesy of Tipico.

NBA spread outlook: The Grizzlies are streaking. Who can trip them up?

The only thing more impressive than the Grizzles’ winning streak is their run against the spread

No NBA team is hotter than the Memphis Grizzlies right now. Amid an impressive 11-game winning streak—featuring victories over heavyweights like the Suns, Nets, and Warriors—Memphis is doing it all. Ja Morant looks like the NBA’s next great superstar while a third-ranked offense (112.3 points per game) is humming along, unimpeded.

Morant knows his team has got something special cooking.

However, an old adage remains true: Good teams win, but great teams cover. And that’s a test a young Memphis team has also passed with flying colors of late.

In addition to that glowing winning streak, the Grizzlies have covered the spread in eight straight games against the Spurs, Nets, Cavaliers, Pistons, Clippers, Lakers, Warriors, and Timberwolves. It’s actually been so long that Memphis has not failed to cover a spread since last year (get it?).

What’s been particularly eye-opening is how few and far between the close calls have been. Save for a narrow 110-106 road win over the Cavaliers where they just barely covered a +3.5 spread; the Grizzlies have paced themselves so far ahead of everyone else. Even big underdog bets like +6.5 on the road against Brooklyn simply haven’t mattered.

But, as they tend to do, all good things must eventually end. There will come a time in the coming days where the Grizzlies, as good as they are, do fail to cover the spread. Morant might have an off night. An opposing sixth man might go nuclear. It happens, especially in a night-to-night league like the NBA. And while the Grizzlies will still undoubtedly be a good team, we might have to, at least temporarily, revoke that coveted “great” label.

Such is the nature of the sports betting beast.

The main reason the Grizzlies’ exceptional eight-game cover streak might soon come to an end? A daunting upcoming schedule. It starts tonight at home against Luka Doncic’s Mavericks (-2.5 at Tipico.)

At 22-19, Dallas has been far from what anyone would call a juggernaut this season. But the Mavs are always dangerous as long as they have a talent like Doncic at the helm. With more of a mediocre defense compared to their high-powered offense, it’s quite possible the creative Doncic alone drives a dagger into the Grizzlies’ streak.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier after Doncic and company leave Memphis because the East-leading Bulls come to town on Monday. Guards DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine are playing like sure All-Stars, if not potential starters in the All-Star Game. Factor in an otherwise deep lineup centering around big man Nikola Vucevic, point guard Lonzo Ball, and microwave scorer Coby White, and Memphis should have its hands full there, too.

Two days later, on Wednesday, the Grizzlies go to Milwaukee to play the defending NBA champion Bucks. Now, there are litmus tests and benchmarks to surpass, and then there’s covering a spread against the last team to win the final game of the entire season. Call it a hunch, but one has to think reigning Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo will want to send a message in what could certainly prove to be a Finals preview when all is said and done.

Ja Morant’s Grizzlies have arrived, and then some. If they can somehow continue to cover the spread against one of the league’s best players and two Eastern Conference heavyweights, then they deserve even more shine.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

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Take Arkansas against-the-spead versus Penn State

Razorbacks should cover against Nittany Lions in the Outback Bowl.

TAMPA, FL – JANUARY 1: A goalpost displays the game logo before the Michigan Wolverines play against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Outback Bowl January 1, 2013 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

The last time Arkansas played in a New Year’s Day bowl game everyone outside of Nevada who wanted to place a wager had to do so underground or overseas.

Fast-forward 10 years, and about half the country allows for sports wagering in some form or fashion. And just this week the state Racing Commission voted to advance a plan to allow for mobile wagering in Arkansas.  

While no Jimmy the Greek, yours truly (Brett the Arkie perhaps?) has a fondness for handicapping and will happily wager on an underdog directional Michigan school in any sport. Given that, it seems only appropriate this writer’s first post on RazorbacksWire offers friendly advice to those interested in starting 2022 with a few extra bucks in their pockets. Or maybe fewer bucks… 

Bowl games are notoriously difficult to handicap. A general rule of thumb over the years has been to take underdogs early, then choose favorites starting on or about New Year’s Eve. This season has upended that approach. After 27 bowl games played through Thursday night, favorites are 16-11 against-the-spread. Suffice to say, sports books nationwide are really hoping for some correction over the next few days. 

Sadly for them, I don’t think they’ll get any relief in Tampa on Saturday. 

Arkansas is the better team right now. They have more available weapons than Penn State. And the Outback Bowl is an incredibly good outcome for this team, while the Nittany Lions had dreams of – worst case scenario – playing in Pasadena. So much of bowl game results have to do with attitude. The Hogs are ascending, while Penn State is playing out the string after a disappointing season.

Beyond the narrative reasons, the numbers support an Arkansas (-2.5) play. On the season the Penn State defense allowed an average of 76.5 plays per game by opposing offenses. Arkansas yielded fewer, averaging only 71.1 plays/game by opposing teams. If the averages stay true, that means Arkansas will run about five more plays than Penn State.

So what do these teams do when they have the ball?

Against FBS opponents, Arkansas generated 0.425 points per offensive snap. Penn State only 0.336 points using that same metric. Considering the depth issues created by opt-outs on Penn State’s defense, logic tells us that the Nittany Lions should be even less efficient – yielding more points/play than during the course of the year. In addition to scoring efficiency, Arkansas (3.6) averages almost one full touchdown scored per game more than Penn State (2.7). 

Turnovers are the least predictable yet most important plays in any game. It’s impossible to overstate how much ball security matters, especially in college football where momentum has a bigger impact that in pro sports. Over the course of the season, turnover margin was pretty much a wash for these two teams with Arkansas slightly better in net turnovers. Given the Hogs’ scoring efficiency and Penn State’s tendency to allow offenses to run almost 80 plays per game, Arkansas is well positioned to win and cover even without winning the turnover battle. Anything better than a PSU plus-one turnover margin leaves Arkansas in good shape.

There are no locks in sports gambling. This one is close, though. Pop a top, kick up your feet, and enjoy watching the Hogs grab their ninth win of the season while you start 2022 1-0 ATS. 

Arkansas 38

Penn State 24

All Betting Lines are Courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook

Should you bet on the Green Bay Packers to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Green Bay Packers’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

Should you bet anyone to win the Super Bowl? That’s a personal question I suppose. Some would say no. I’d definitely argue yes. In the spirit of trying to break the BetMGM book, let’s take a look at the Green Bay Packers’ case to win Super Bowl LIV.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Green Bay Packers playoff futures

Get some action on the games by betting at BetMGM. New customer offer: RISK-FREE First Bet (up to $500!) paid in free bets.

NFC Champion: +400

First things first, can the Packers win the NFC championship? I’d argue the best value to win the NFC is the Packers. Considering they are the No. 2 seed entering the playoffs, which earned them a bye in the first round and home-field advantage against every NFC opponent aside from the San Francisco 49ers, isn’t there inherent value in taking the Packers (the third favorite to make it out of the NFC)?

(Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports)

Lambeau Field is arguably the strongest home-field advantage in the NFL. Factor in winter conditions and beating the Cheeseheads at Lambeau in January is a rare feat. Since 2008 (when Aaron Rodgers became the Packers’ starting quarterback), Green Bay has the best record in the NFL as a home favorite at 52-33-3.

Also, the Packers are 28-15 straight up in the Rodgers era when having a rest advantage over opponents (sixth-best in the NFL). Given these factors, and their future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. PACKERS (+400) to win the NFC is the best value on the board.

Super Bowl: +800

Banking on our Packers +400 bet slip to win the NFC title to cash, what are the chances the PACKERS (+800) win Super Bowl LIV? Many consider the Packers an overrated team heading into the playoffs, but they’ve consistently exceeded expectations this season. The definition of expectations made for a sports team is how they perform against sportsbooks’ odds.

The Packers beat their projected regular-season NFL win total of nine (13-3 straight up) and they had the sixth-best record against the spread in the NFL (10-6 ATS). Winning and appearing in only one Super Bowl in the Rodgers era can be viewed as a disappointment for the Packers, but their 10-5-1 ATS record in playoff games is the second-best in the NFL since 2008 (minimum of three games played).

(Photo credit: Harrison Barden – USA TODAY Sports)

Rodgers isn’t having his typical MVP-caliber season but the Packers should still be considered a dual-threat offense. Rodgers’ down-year included 4,002 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions on a 62% completion rate. But running back Aaron Jones has provided Rodgers with a quarterback’s best friend with a strong run game.

Jones ran for 1,084 yards and tied with an NFL-leading 16 rushing touchdowns. His production is key to the Packers offense; the Packers won all five of the games in which Jones ran for 100-plus yards. Rodgers’ favorite target—WR Davante Adams—missed four games but is healthy to end the season, and he can get a little healthier because of the Packers first-round bye. Adams got rolling at the end of the regular season, catching 27 balls with 312 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the final three games of the season.

The Packers defense is ranked ninth in opponent’s points scored. The last time the Packers were in the top-10 in that category was in 2010 (ranked second) when they won Super Bowl XLV. Their defense is led by two legit pass rushers—both added this past offseason—in DE Preston Smith (12 sacks) and DE Za’Darius Smith (13.5 sacks and NFL-leader in pressures). Based on the Packers’ ability to play complementary football and the wide-open landscape of the NFL entering the postseason, take the PACKERS (+800) to win the whole damn thing.

Want action on this bet? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Xavier at Villanova odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Monday’s Xavier Musketeers at Villanova Wildcats sports betting odds and lines, with NCAA basketball betting picks, tips and bets.

The Xavier Musketeers (11-2, 0-0 Big East) and Villanova Wildcats (9-2, 0-0 Big East) open the conference schedule at Finneran Pavilion at 6:30 p.m. ET Monday. We analyze the Xavier-Villanova odds and betting lines, while providing college basketball betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Xavier at Villanova: Three things you need to know

1. These Big East rivals faced each other three times last season, with the Wildcats winning 85-75 to cover the spread on Jan. 18 and also hitting the Over. In the rematch, the Musketeers won 66-54 to cover as the Under hit. They also met in the conference tourney, with ‘Nova winning in overtime, as Xavier covered with the Over.

2. The Musketeers have covered four of the past 13 games overall, and they’re 7-3 against the spread in the past 10 games on the road.

3. The Wildcats have covered 29 of the past 42 games at home, but they’re just 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven overall, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning sides.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a bet at BetMGM!

Xavier at Villanova: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Villanova 77, Xavier 75

Moneyline (ML)

There was no moneyline available at the time of publishing.

Against the Spread (ATS)

XAVIER (+5.5, -106) will look to add to ‘Nova’s (-5.5, -115) woes against the number. The Wildcats have been scratching out wins, but failing to cover, going 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven. Look for a close battle in this conference opener, as the two rivals feel each other out early before a close finish at the end.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 139.5 (-106) is the play in Philly, as the over has hit in six of the past eight for XU, and 12 of the past 17 for ‘Nova.

Want some action in this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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