The last time Arkansas played in a New Year’s Day bowl game everyone outside of Nevada who wanted to place a wager had to do so underground or overseas.
Fast-forward 10 years, and about half the country allows for sports wagering in some form or fashion. And just this week the state Racing Commission voted to advance a plan to allow for mobile wagering in Arkansas.
While no Jimmy the Greek, yours truly (Brett the Arkie perhaps?) has a fondness for handicapping and will happily wager on an underdog directional Michigan school in any sport. Given that, it seems only appropriate this writer’s first post on RazorbacksWire offers friendly advice to those interested in starting 2022 with a few extra bucks in their pockets. Or maybe fewer bucks…
Bowl games are notoriously difficult to handicap. A general rule of thumb over the years has been to take underdogs early, then choose favorites starting on or about New Year’s Eve. This season has upended that approach. After 27 bowl games played through Thursday night, favorites are 16-11 against-the-spread. Suffice to say, sports books nationwide are really hoping for some correction over the next few days.
Sadly for them, I don’t think they’ll get any relief in Tampa on Saturday.
Arkansas is the better team right now. They have more available weapons than Penn State. And the Outback Bowl is an incredibly good outcome for this team, while the Nittany Lions had dreams of – worst case scenario – playing in Pasadena. So much of bowl game results have to do with attitude. The Hogs are ascending, while Penn State is playing out the string after a disappointing season.
Beyond the narrative reasons, the numbers support an Arkansas (-2.5) play. On the season the Penn State defense allowed an average of 76.5 plays per game by opposing offenses. Arkansas yielded fewer, averaging only 71.1 plays/game by opposing teams. If the averages stay true, that means Arkansas will run about five more plays than Penn State.
So what do these teams do when they have the ball?
Against FBS opponents, Arkansas generated 0.425 points per offensive snap. Penn State only 0.336 points using that same metric. Considering the depth issues created by opt-outs on Penn State’s defense, logic tells us that the Nittany Lions should be even less efficient – yielding more points/play than during the course of the year. In addition to scoring efficiency, Arkansas (3.6) averages almost one full touchdown scored per game more than Penn State (2.7).
Turnovers are the least predictable yet most important plays in any game. It’s impossible to overstate how much ball security matters, especially in college football where momentum has a bigger impact that in pro sports. Over the course of the season, turnover margin was pretty much a wash for these two teams with Arkansas slightly better in net turnovers. Given the Hogs’ scoring efficiency and Penn State’s tendency to allow offenses to run almost 80 plays per game, Arkansas is well positioned to win and cover even without winning the turnover battle. Anything better than a PSU plus-one turnover margin leaves Arkansas in good shape.
There are no locks in sports gambling. This one is close, though. Pop a top, kick up your feet, and enjoy watching the Hogs grab their ninth win of the season while you start 2022 1-0 ATS.
Arkansas 38
Penn State 24
All Betting Lines are Courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook