Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (24-22) will try to snap their 3-game losing streak on Friday night when they host the Miami Heat (25-21) at American Airlines Center. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Mavericks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Heat crushed the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game Wednesday night, winning 124-98 on the road as 3.5-point favorites. It was their 4th win in the last 5 games, bouncing back from an 8-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks 2 nights before. Miami is tied for last in scoring this season, averaging just 109.2 points per game, but it is also allowing the 2nd-fewest points per game (108.6).

The Mavericks lost to the Hawks Wednesday night as 2.5-point favorites, falling at home, 130-122. PG Luka Doncic scored 30 points, 8 dimes and 4 boards. The Mavericks have now lost 3 games in a row, failing to cover the spread in all of those games.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Heat at Mavericks odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 11:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mavericks +105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Heat -1.5 (-112) | Mavericks +1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Catch the excitement and bet with Tipico

Double Down, Ohio! Deposit $200, Get $250. Bet now!

In Colorado and New Jersey, claim your 100% Deposit Match up to $250 now. Bet now! 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions.

Heat at Mavericks key injuries

Heat

  • PF Udonis Haslem (Achille’s) probable
  • F Duncan Robinson (finger) out

Mavericks

  • G Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle) probable
  • PF Maxi Kleber (hamstring) out
  • PF Christian Wood (thumb) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 110, Mavericks 105

Moneyline

The Mavericks have been struggling lately, losing their last 3 games by an average of 14 points. They’re just 4-6 in their last 10, though they have played well at home; they’re 16-7 at American Airlines Center.

The Heat are finally healthy and have the edge over the Mavericks with their defense. They’ve historically done a good job against Doncic, too, holding him to just 20.8 points per game in his career.

Bet the HEAT (-125) to win outright on the road.

Against the spread

The spread and money lines aren’t much different in this game, with the spread sitting at Heat -1.5 with a line of -105. The Heat are 5-4 when favored by 1-2.5 points this season, while the Mavericks are only 0-1-1 as 1-2.5-point underdogs, according to Covers.

I would PASS on the spread and just take the Heat on the moneyline.

Over/Under

The Heat boast one of the best defenses in the NBA and both teams play at a slow pace; they’re tied for 28th with an average of 100.8 possessions per game.

The Over/Under is obviously accounting for that, with the line set at just 218.5, but I still like the Under in this one. If the Heat can slow down Luka and limit his chances, this game should be on the lower-scoring side.

Bet UNDER 219.5 (-115).

Want action on this NBA game or any other matchups? Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, SportsbookWire’s official sportsbook partner in OH, CO and NJ. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Access more NBA coverage:
HoopsHype | Bulls Wire | Celtics Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | LeBron WireRookie Wire | List Wire

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]

NBA spread outlook: The Grizzlies are streaking. Who can trip them up?

The only thing more impressive than the Grizzles’ winning streak is their run against the spread

No NBA team is hotter than the Memphis Grizzlies right now. Amid an impressive 11-game winning streak—featuring victories over heavyweights like the Suns, Nets, and Warriors—Memphis is doing it all. Ja Morant looks like the NBA’s next great superstar while a third-ranked offense (112.3 points per game) is humming along, unimpeded.

Morant knows his team has got something special cooking.

However, an old adage remains true: Good teams win, but great teams cover. And that’s a test a young Memphis team has also passed with flying colors of late.

In addition to that glowing winning streak, the Grizzlies have covered the spread in eight straight games against the Spurs, Nets, Cavaliers, Pistons, Clippers, Lakers, Warriors, and Timberwolves. It’s actually been so long that Memphis has not failed to cover a spread since last year (get it?).

What’s been particularly eye-opening is how few and far between the close calls have been. Save for a narrow 110-106 road win over the Cavaliers where they just barely covered a +3.5 spread; the Grizzlies have paced themselves so far ahead of everyone else. Even big underdog bets like +6.5 on the road against Brooklyn simply haven’t mattered.

But, as they tend to do, all good things must eventually end. There will come a time in the coming days where the Grizzlies, as good as they are, do fail to cover the spread. Morant might have an off night. An opposing sixth man might go nuclear. It happens, especially in a night-to-night league like the NBA. And while the Grizzlies will still undoubtedly be a good team, we might have to, at least temporarily, revoke that coveted “great” label.

Such is the nature of the sports betting beast.

The main reason the Grizzlies’ exceptional eight-game cover streak might soon come to an end? A daunting upcoming schedule. It starts tonight at home against Luka Doncic’s Mavericks (-2.5 at Tipico.)

At 22-19, Dallas has been far from what anyone would call a juggernaut this season. But the Mavs are always dangerous as long as they have a talent like Doncic at the helm. With more of a mediocre defense compared to their high-powered offense, it’s quite possible the creative Doncic alone drives a dagger into the Grizzlies’ streak.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier after Doncic and company leave Memphis because the East-leading Bulls come to town on Monday. Guards DeMar DeRozan and Zach Lavine are playing like sure All-Stars, if not potential starters in the All-Star Game. Factor in an otherwise deep lineup centering around big man Nikola Vucevic, point guard Lonzo Ball, and microwave scorer Coby White, and Memphis should have its hands full there, too.

Two days later, on Wednesday, the Grizzlies go to Milwaukee to play the defending NBA champion Bucks. Now, there are litmus tests and benchmarks to surpass, and then there’s covering a spread against the last team to win the final game of the entire season. Call it a hunch, but one has to think reigning Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo will want to send a message in what could certainly prove to be a Finals preview when all is said and done.

Ja Morant’s Grizzlies have arrived, and then some. If they can somehow continue to cover the spread against one of the league’s best players and two Eastern Conference heavyweights, then they deserve even more shine.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).

[mm-video type=video id=01fs9yw2hpkhcj8g2tmm playlist_id=none player_id=none image=https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/video/thumbnail/mmplus/01fs9yw2hpkhcj8g2tmm/01fs9yw2hpkhcj8g2tmm-176e9a3ad499593efe0c8d4ef1f5ac0f.jpg]

[listicle id=1390309]