Tag: aj dillon

2021 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Rushing

Who has the easiest schedule for rushing?

The strength of schedule for running backs only considers rushing yardage and scores. There is a significant difference between how often teams use them as receivers, and that impacts the stats allowed by a defense. For a simpler and more 1:1 consideration, this is the strength of schedule for only  rushing production that was allowed by defenses including each home or away venue.

The extra game in the NFL schedule starting this year won’t help running backs to stay healthy as well.

See also:
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Passing
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Rushing
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Receiving

Total Points

For fantasy contests and such, only total points matter, so below are the total points for each rushing offense derived from their schedule against the average rushing fantasy points allowed in 2020 by those defenses.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22. The middle 20 matchups were neither good nor bad.

Notable schedules

Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams (DEN) – The backfield situation could change from game to game, but whichever back takes the lead will enjoy the most favorable schedule in the NFL. Aside from two midseason games, the entire lineup of opponents is light, and four of the final five matchups go against weaker defenses from 2020.

Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown (MIA) – The Dolphins matchup with the AFC South helps to give the otherwise mediocre backfield a chance to surprise if they don’t add another back and start rotating players. The final nine games only contain one tough venue, and there’s nary a bad weather game possible.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The hottest rookie running back takes a further step in the lead with a schedule that can reward a full-time rusher. He gets a fast start with no bad matchups until Week 8 and then three of the final four games face weak defenses right when you need him most.

David Montgomery (CHI) – Hopefully, the spike in production that ended 2020 picks up again this season while enjoying one of the lighter schedules for rushers. Montgomery faces a mixed set of games through midseason but then faces his final tough venue in Week 9. The Bears fortunes should increase in the second half of the year and the passing offense will be hitting a higher gear by then as well.

James Robinson, Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule is kind aside from a three-game stretch from Week 11 to Week 13. And then the final four games all face favorable matchups during the fantasy playoffs. The split in workload between James Robinson and Travis Etienne may evolve through the season, but the primary back for December should end the season on a high note.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Second-year running back Jonathan Taylor already broke out in 2020 with over 1,100 rushing yards, and he gets a chance to take another step up, facing seven opponents with weaker defenses. The first seven weeks are tough with four bad matchups but then clears up with only one more in the final  nine games while playing in five weak venues. A Week 14 bye will hurt in larger leagues and contests, but hosting the Raiders in Week 17 should end the fantasy year with a bang.

Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette (TB) – There’s already a committee backfield that shifts roles, and now the Super Bowl champion’s path to a repeat navigates the worst rushing schedule of any team. They only play in two of the lighter venues from last year while over half of their matchups go against  the toughest rush defenses. Starting in October, they face a twelve-game stretch without any weak defenses.

Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon (GB) – The quarterback situation will be resolved, but the rushing schedule never improves for the Packers in 2021. After a mostly challenging stretch through midseason, Aaron Jones not only has a Week 13 bye, but the last six weeks of the season produces only one favorable matchup and yet four of the toughest venues for rushers.

2021 weekly grid

 

Average rushing fantasy points allowed (points per game)

Fantasy values were derived from 1 point per 10 rushing yards and six-point rushing touchdowns.

Tunnel Vision of Week 16

Tunnel Vision – a look back at Sunday for fantasy free agents, injuries and notable performances.

SUNDAY SALUTES
Quarterbacks Pass-Rush TD
Tom Brady 348 4
 Deshaun Watson 324-38 3
 Andy Dalton 377-15 3
 Mitchell Trubisky 265-10 3
Aaron Rodgers 231-19 4
Running Backs Yards TD
Alvin Kamara 22-155
3-17		 6
Myles Gaskin 14-87
5-82		 2
Samaje Perine 13-95
4-41		 2
David Johnson 12-128
3-11		 2
Jeffery Wilson 22-183
1-21		 1
Wide Receivers Yards TD
Mike Evans 10-181 2
Michael Gallup 6-121 2
Jamison Crowder 7-92
1-43 pass		 2
Brandin Cooks 7-141 1
Nelson Agholor 5-155 1
Tight Ends Yards TD
Irv Smith Jr. 6-53 2
Jimmy Graham 4-69 2
Travis Kelce 7-98 1
Rob Gronkowski 2-58 2
Darren Waller 5-112 0
Placekickers XP FG
Jason Sanders 2 4
Mike Badgley 1 4
Greg Zuerlein 4 3
Daniel Carlson 1 4
Austin Seibert 4 3
Defense Sck-TO TD
Buccaneers 4-2 0
Panthers 3-4 1
Seahawks 3-1 0
Lions 2-0 1
49ers 2-2 0

Bumps, Bruises and Bowouts

QB Matt Stafford (DET) – Ankle
QB Kyler Murray (ARI) – Leg
QB Deshaun Watson (HOU) – Arm
QB Jared Goff (LAR) – Thumb
RB J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – Chest
RB Chase Edmonds (ARI) – Hip
RB Darrell Henderson (LAR) – Ankle
RB Frank Gore (NYJ) – Chest
WR Sammy Watkins (KC) – Calf
WR Jakeen Grant (MIA) – Ankle
WR K.J. Hamler (DEN) – Concussion
TE Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Calf

Chasing Ambulances

QB Matt Stafford (DET)  – Stafford keeps getting knocked out of games and this time it was an ankle sprain. It is reported to be minor,  and he may play in Week 17. He already said that he would play the final game if possible and there is a chance that it would be his final game in Detroit if trade rumors end up being true.

QB Kyler Murray (ARI) – Had his leg whipped in the loss to the 49ers but initial evaluations were that it wasn’t serious. HC Kliff Kingsbury hasn’t officially given an update yet which will be later this week.

QB Deshaun Watson (HOU) – His arm was awkwardly bent backward on a pass play when he was hit as he threw the ball. He his was stuck in the facemask of the defender as he went by. He did return to the field for one more pass but his arm will undergo further examination to ensure that he did not damage it.

QB Jared Goff (LAR) – Early word is that Goff broke the thumb on his passing hand when it hit a defender’s helmet after a pass. There are concerns that he will miss the critical matchup with the Cardinals this week if not even more time. John Wolford is the backup quarterback. He was a free agent rookie in 2018 that played for the Arizona Hotshots in the AAF league.

RB J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – Had his chest  injured in the third quarter of the win over the Giants on a hard tackle and was held out of rest of the game. He wasn’t needed so they could have just been protective of their primary running back. There should be more clarity after Monday.

RB Darrell Henderson (LAR) – Left the loss to the Seahawks after injuring his ankle and never returned. He limped off the field. With Cam Akers already out with a high-ankle sprain, the Rams are down to only Malcolm Brown and practice squadder Xavier Jones.

Free Agents, Flops and Other Notables

TE Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) – The second-year tight end is stepping up into a bigger role. He caught six passes for 53 yards and two scores in the loss to the Saints this week, which gives him five touchdowns over his last five games.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB) – Ran for 62 yards on 15 carries and caught a seven-yard pass. Leonard Fournette signed a one-year deal and is expected to sign elsewhere so Vaughn should step into the No. 2 role behind Ronald Jones next year.

RB Jeff Wilson (SF) – Ran for a career-high 183 yards on 22 rushes in the win over the Cardinals. He added a 21-yard catch for a touchdown. No other back ran more than twice. The 49ers like their committee and Wilson is making a case to remain part of the rotation even when Raheem Mostert is healthy – which has not been that often this year.

QB Taylor Heinicke (WAS) – Dwayne Haskin is likely to have plenty of time for the strip club since he’s likely played his last for the Football Team. Haskin was benched after throwing for 154 yards and two interceptions as Washington fell behind 20-0 against the visiting Panthers. Heinicke came into the game and completed 12-of-19 for 137 yards and one score. If Alex Smith remains out in Week 17, Heinicke is likely to be the starter.

RB Myles Gaskin (MIA) – He returned from a two-game absence on the COVID-list and was reported to share the workload with Salvon Ahmed who has impressed when given the opportunity. But Ahmed only carried six times for two yards while Gaskin led the Dolphins with 14 carries for 87 yards, and was also their leading receiver with five catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Cannot imagine that running back will be considered a need in the offseason.

RB Samaje Perine (CIN) – The fourth-year journeyman back logged a career-best 95 yards on 13 carries with two touchdowns and four receptions for 41 yards. Perine was given a longer look to help the Bengals make decisions in the offseason and he responded well, although they played the Texans.  He’ll face the Ravens next week which will be more telling.

WR Curtis Samuel (CAR) – Led the Panthers with a career-best 106 yards on five catches in the win in Washington and he was also the leading rusher with a career-high 52 yards on seven carries. The former second-round pick in 2018 had been a disappointment but has fourished in HC Matt Rhule’s new offense.

RB Dare Ogunbowale (JAC) – Replaced James Robinson against the Bears and ran for 71 yards on 14 carries. He added three catches for seven yards. Playing at the Colts will be tougher if Robinson remains out, but Ogunbowale gets the benefit of the defense not caring as much about the rushing offense during the second half when the Jaguars are falling further behind.

RB Darrell Williams (KC) – With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, the expectation was that Le’Veon Bell would take over as the primary back and potentially be a big asset. But Bell only ran for 30 yards on seven carries and caught a single pass for nine yards. Williams ran ten times for 46 yards and caught four passes for 27 yards. Same split backfield and Bell was still the No. 2 back.

QB Justin Herbert (LAC) – He passed for 253 yards and one score in the win over the Broncos. That totaled 28 touchdowns which is a new all-time rookie record, surpassing Baker Mayfield’s 27.

WR Ja’Marcus Bradley (CLE) – The Browns lost all of the wideouts on their active roster to the COVID list, and called up Bradley from the practice squad. He caught 5-of-11 targets for 60 yards as the second best receiver for the Browns behind only Austin Hooper. Baker Mayfield did not shy away from him during his debut.

RB Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Not sure how it works in 2021 if Marlon Mack returns, but Taylor has responded well when used as a full-time workhorse. He ran for 74 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries at the Steelers and that gives him five touchdowns and 307 rushing yards over his last three games.

TE Travis Kelce (KC) – Caught seven passes for 98 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Falcons. That gives him 1,416 yards in the season for the most by any tight end in NFL history. And he has one more game to play.

WR DeSean Jackson (PHI) – He was finally activated from injured reserve and caught just one pass at the Cowboys – an 81-yard touchdown in the first quarter. He never had another target but showed his vintage bomb-catching ability in his first game back.

RB AJ Dillon (GB) – The Packers second-round rookie saw minimal use in the  seven previous games that he was active.  He spent time on the COVID-19 list. Jamaal Williams missed this week with a thigh injury and Dillon was expected to provide relief carries for Aaron Jones. But the 6-0, 247-pound back proved an effective weapon in the snowy conditions in Green Bay on Sunday night. Jones gained 94 yards on ten carries but the rookie ended with 124 yards and two touchdowns on his 21 carries. He added a five-yard catch. On a cold, sloppy field, the powerback brings a new element to the backfield.

QB Jalen Hurts (PHI) – Passed for 338 yards and ran for 63 yards in the loss in Dallas. Combined with Week 15, he joins Michael Vick as the only quarterbacks with back-to-back games of 300 passing yards and 50 rushing yards.

NFL Playoffs

AFC

14-1 Chiefs First-round bye
12-3 Steelers won the North
11-3 Bills won the East

There are five teams that are 10-5 and only four more spots.

Titans, Ravens, Browns, Dolphins, Colts

NFC

12-3 Packers lead for No. 1 seed
11-4 Saints won South
11-4 Seahawks won West
10-5 Buccaneers will be a wildcard

NFC East will be either the 6-9 Football Team, 6-9 Cowboys, or 5-10 Giants. Division winner advances, the other two drop out.

The final two NFC wildcards will be either

9-6 Rams
8-7 Bears
8-7 Cardinals

Huddle player of the week

Alvin Kamara  –  It was amazing enough to happen at all and for Week 16 when fantasy championships are being earned? Kamara ran for 155 yards on 22 carries and an astounding six touchdowns – it could have been seven but they let Taysom Hill run one in for some reason. Kamara also added three catches for 17 yards in one of the best fantasy performances of all time. Sadly, not every Kamara owner was in their league championship and the performance was wasted.

Salute!

Drama 101 – Somebody has to laugh, somebody has to cry

Comedy Yards TDs Tragedy Yards TDs
QB Andy Dalton 377-15 3 QB Drew Brees 311-(-3) 0
RB Myles Gaskin 14-87
5-82		 2 RB Josh Jacobs 13-69 0
RB Samaje Perine 13-95
5-82		 2 RB Melvin Gordon 16-79 0
WR Michael Gallup 6-121 2 WR D.J. Moore 5-37 0
WR Nelson Agholor 5-155 1 WR DK Metcalf 6-59 0
WR Sterling Shepard 9-77 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins 8-48 0
TE Irv Smith 6-53 2 TE T.J. Hockenson 4-23 0
PK Jason Sanders   2 XP   4 FG PK Younghoe Koo   2 XP
Huddle Fantasy Points = 217 Huddle Fantasy Points = 66

Now get back to work…

Packers suddenly have a 1-2 punch at RB

Even with Aaron Jones, the Packers decided to draft AJ Dillon in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Last season, Packers running back Aaron Jones ran for 1,086 yards and a league-leading 16 touchdowns.

That’s why most people were surprised that the Packers selected AJ Dillon, also a running back, in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers probably would have preferred a wide receiver.

This probably says more about what the Packers are trying to do offensively than it does about Jones’ job security.

We’ll get the first look at Green Bay’s offensive philosophy on Sunday when the Packers travel to play the Vikings in front of a fan-less U.S. Bank Stadium.

Last season, the Packers ranked in the middle of the pack offensively, which seems like a crime with Rodgers, Jones and Davante Adams on the team. Green Bay finished 17th in passing yards and 15th in rushing yards.

We’ll get the first-look of what Green Bay wants to do offensively in Week 1, although we’ll see how up-to-speed Dillon is. We’ve seen rookie running backs such as D’Andre Swift and J.K. Dobbins get off to slow starts in training camp thus far.

Jonathan Taylor led the nation inside the 5-yard line according to PFF

Jonathan Taylor ended up in the end zone a lot last season, in fact, Pro Football Focus tweeted that Taylor led all power five running backs in 2019 at converting inside the five-yard line.

Jonathan Taylor ended up in the end zone a lot last season, in fact, Pro Football Focus tweeted that Taylor led all power five running backs in 2019 at converting inside the five-yard line.

According to PFF, Taylor converted 63 percent of his carries inside the five last season into touchdowns. This amazing statistic helps to explain Taylor’s unbelievable 21 rushing touchdowns from last year and shows just how versatile he was for Wisconsin.

The Salem, N.J. native was followed in conversion rate by Kylin Hill of Mississippi State with 56 percent, Zack Moss of Utah and AJ Dillon of Boston College with 53 percent, and lastly Najee Harris of Alabama and CJ Verdell of Oregon with 50 percent. Taylor and Dillon were both selected in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft and were in the top six of FBS rushers last season.

Jonathan Taylor was outstanding in his time at Wisconsin, which can be seen in how many of these articles I write about his statistics from last year. The amount of different categories that Taylor led last season in FBS shows just how well rounded of a running back he is, and that he will have no problem transitioning into his role with the Indianapolis Colts.

New RB A.J. Dillon will wear No. 28 with Packers

New Packers RB A.J. Dillon, the team’s second-round pick, will wear No. 28.

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The Green Bay Packers announced new running back A.J. Dillon will wear No. 28 with his new team.

The Packers used the 62nd overall pick in the 2020 draft on Dillon, who rushed for 4,382 yards and 38 touchdowns over 35 games.

Dillon wore No. 2 at Boston College.

Last year, cornerback Tony Brown wore No. 28.

Jordan Love, the Packers’ first pick, will wear No. 10.

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Instant analysis of the Packers drafting RB A.J. Dillon at No. 62

Breaking down the Packers’ pick of AJ Dillon in the second round of the 2020 draft.

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Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur spent one year with Derrick Henry as his lead running back with the Tenessee Titans.

Now, LaFleur has his Henry replica in Green Bay.

GM Brian Gutekunst used the 62nd overall pick on Boston College running back A.J. Dillon, a 247-pounder who isn’t just an old-fashioned grinder. In fact, like Henry, Dillon tested like one of the very best athletes at the running back position after running the 40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds, hitting 41″ in the vertical leap and finishing the three-cone drill in 7.19 at the combine.

Taking a running back in the second round of a draft can be debated. Taking a running back that isn’t especially valuable in the passing game can be debated further. From a value standpoint, this is a much bigger surprise than what the Packers did in the first round.

But LaFleur and the Packers clearly like Dillon as the thunder to Aaron Jones’ lightning, or as the future No. 1 back in Green Bay if the Packers can’t re-sign Jones to a new deal after the 2020 season. Jamaal Williams, the current backup, is also a free agent after next year.

Over three seasons at Boston College, Dillon rumbled his way to 4,382 yards and 38 touchdowns. Many have compared him to Henry, the Titans’ star back, and Brandon Jacobs, who once gave the New York Giants a big, physical runner.

Still, it’s increasingly difficult to decipher a clear plan to the Packers’ start to this draft. They’ve now selected a developmental quarterback (Jordan Love) and a running back who will likely be a backup in 2020 and a rotational player in 2021 and beyond.

Dillon caught 21 career passes at Boston College. The best running backs in the NFL add great value in the passing game. Dillon probably won’t at the next level.

Dillon will need to emerge as a punishing runner who thrives in the cold and annually threatens 1,000 rushing yards for this pick to justify the draft spot. He is a talented player, and his size and athleticism combination is no laughing matter, but the Packers really gambled with a valuable resource early in the 2020 draft.

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Packers select RB A.J. Dillon with 62nd pick in 2020 draft

The Packers drafted AJ Dillon with the 62nd pick in the second round of the draft.

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The Green Bay Packers selected Boston College running back A.J. Dillon with the 62nd overall pick in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft.

Dillon rushed for 4,382 yards and 38 touchdowns over three seasons at Boston College. He is the highest-drafted running back by the Packers since Eddie Lacy in the 2013 draft.

Dillon is 247 pounds and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds, with a vertical leap of 41″ and a 10-11 broad jump.

Some have compared Dillon to Titans running back Derrick Henry.

CBS Sports mock sees Bills trade up in second round

Buffalo Bills make a few trades in this CBS Sports 2020 NFL mock draft.

The Buffalo Bills are unlikely to get back into the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft later this week. Sorry, it’s probably going to be a slow Thursday.

But a recent CBS Sports mock draft has the Bills making a roll of the dice in an area the club has done so in recent years: early in the second round. Buffalo makes a move up in a switch with the Panthers to land a first-round talent in Iowa edge defender AJ Epenesa:

The Bills don’t have a ton of needs after a busy offseason that included dealing their first-round pick in a move to add a No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs, so they should feel comfortable packaging some picks together to make a move in Round 2 if a prospect of interest falls. Here that’s Epenesa, who disappointed at the combine but should be a strong defensive end at the next level. He’ll mix in as a rookie and take over as a starter in 2021.

The analysis of the move makes a lot of sense for the Bills. Buffalo could be looking to land back in the first round, but really they don’t have enough capital to do so. Moving up high in the second round is exactly what the Bills have done under head coach Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane over the past few drafts. The duo moved up in that ballpark to select Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins. Plus, there’s always the Bills-Panthers connection to consider, although, Carolina has made wholesale changes in their front office this offseason.

In Epenesa, while underwhelming at the scouting combine, he previously was a played pegged as a potential pick for the Bills in the first round of the draft, before the team traded away their top pick for Stefon Diggs. Epenesa would still see some playing time as a rookie, as the Bills consistently run a rotation along their defensive line. He’d likely be behind Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison in the pecking order early in his career, though.

In this mock, the Bills make another late trade back in a deal with the Broncos to add some more depth along their roster. That helps make up for the third-round pick the Bills dealt to the Panthers to select Epenesa.

Of Buffalo’s later picks in the seven-round mock, another AJ, Boston College running back AJ Dillon in the fourth round is the next and most intriguing pick by Buffalo. At near 240 pounds, Dillon is a stocky and powerful pack, perhaps the ideal complement to Devin Singletary.

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6 mid-round running backs who should be on Bills draft radar

Here are five mid-round running backs from the 2020 NFL Draft the Buffalo Bills should keep an eye on.

Devin Singletary is the Buffalo Bills’ No. 1 running back heading into 2020, that much we know. Behind him is a bit of a question mark.

Frank Gore isn’t coming back to the Bills and that leaves TJ Yeldon. While the Bills front office has touted Yeldon’s skills this offseason, that appears little more than a smokescreen heading into the 2020 NFL Draft.

Yeldon was consistently inactive on game day for the Bills last season, so while the team has few holes in their roster, a complementary back to Singletary is among them. Still, the Bills don’t need to reach on a running back at the draft. There’s plenty of talent sprinkled all around every round.

Here are six mid-round running back prospects that should be on the Bills radar at the upcoming draft:

Utah Utes running back Zack Moss. Credit: Melissa Majchrzak-USA TODAY Sports

Zach Moss | Utah

If you’re looking for a powerful runner for the Bills, Zach Moss could be a strong pick. The senior stands at 5-foot-9 and 223 pounds, according to his scouting combine recap. He uses that size to make arm tacklers a useless defender when he’s on the field. Moss also has a knack for finding the holes in the backfield to get to the next level on runs. This physicality also helps him in pass protection situations.

What Moss is really lacking is speed. He won’t burn anyone on defense and his combine numbers didn’t exactly help him as Moss clocked in at a 4.65 40-yard dash time, tied for the fourth-worst time among all running backs at the combine. Moss won’t be a second-round pick, but rounds 3-4, he’ll certainly be in play.

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NFL Draft: A RB in each round for the Philadelphia Eagles

AJ Dillon among RB’s the Eagles could target in every round

The NFL draft is just eight days away and as the Philadelphia Eagles decide on wide receivers to target, the Birds could look to add some depth at running back.

With only Miles Sanders, Boston Scott and Elijah Holyfield on the roster, the Eagles could look to add some running back depth.

The Eagles don’t have a pick in every round but in case of some wheeling and dealing, we decided to project one running back from every round that the Eagles could target.

***

 D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

1. D’Andre Swift, Georgia

The 21-year-old Philadelphia native is a skilled route runner and has amazing hands out of the backfield (just three drops on 76 targets, per Pro Football Focus).

He’d be the perfect compliment to Miles Sanders without either player needing to worry about ego.

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