Tag: aj dillon

Packers RBs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon both want to hit 1,000 rushing yards in 2022

Packers running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have the same goal: Both rush for 1,000 yards in 2022.

Last week, we here at Packers Wire openly wondered if Green Bay Packers running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon could do what no running back duo has done since 2009: Both go over 1,000 rushing yards in a single season.

The rare feat is on the mind of both running backs to start training camp.

“Me and Aaron haven’t talked, but it’d be nice to both have 1,000 yards rushing. Hey, let’s get 3,000 yards between both of us. I don’t think there’s any limit,” Dillon said Wednesday.

Jones echoed the goal during an appearance on NFL Network.

“We both want to hit that 1,000-yard mark. I don’t think it’s been done since like 2009, it’s been a while. I think we’re both capable of it.”

Jones is right: The last running back pair to rushing for 1,000 yards was DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart for the Carolina Panthers in 2009.

Dillon, now entering Year 3, led the team in rushing with 803 yards last season. Jones, who has a pair of 1,000-yard rushing seasons already, wasn’t far behind at 799.

Over a full 17-game schedule, Jones and Dillon would both need to average 58.8 rushing yards per game for each player to get to 1,000 rushing yards.

It’s not a crazy goal for two running backs as talented as Jones and Dillon, especially with the Packers evolving on offense.

Can Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon accomplish rare rushing feat in 2022?

No pair of RB teammates have each rushed for 1,000 yards in the same season since 2009. Can Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon be the first in over a decade?

It might be a long shot, but Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon of the Green Bay Packers could have a legitimate chance to accomplish a rare feat of rushing during the 2022 season.

In the history of the NFL, only five pairs of running back teammates have ever both rushed for over 1,000 yards in a single season. The last one? DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers in 2009, so it’s been well over a decade since a pair of running-back teammates both hit the 1,000-yard milestone in the same season.

Can Jones and Dillon end the drought?

It would take an incredible season from both, but the Packers are evolving on offense after losing Davante Adams, and Jones and Dillon are going to get the ball a ton during the 2022 season. If both stay healthy and the run-blocking of the offensive line improves even incrementally, they’ll have a chance.

In 2021, Jones and Dillon both went over 1,000 total yards but came up short of 1,000 rushing yards. Jones rushed 171 times for 799 yards in 15 games; Dillon rushed 187 times for 803 yards in 17 games.

Back in 2009, Stewart rushed 221 times for 1,133 yards in 16 games and Williams rushed 216 times for 1,117 yards in 13 games. Both Stewart and Williams averaged over 5.0 yards per carry. And both were over 70.0 yards per game.

The extra game gives the Packers’ duo an advantage.

Over a 17-game schedule, both Jones and Dillon would both need to average 58.8 rushing yards per game for each player to get to 1,000 rushing yards.

Of course, the Packers are still led by Aaron Rodgers, the back-to-back NFL MVP, and throwing the football is still going to be a major part of what Matt LaFleur’s team tries to accomplish. Instead of a significant uptick in carries for Jones and Dillon, the pair may catch more passes in an attempt to fill the void left by Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

If the carries didn’t increase for either player in 2022, the efficiency would need to: Jones would have to average 5.8 yards per carry, while Dillon would have to average 5.3 yards. This is a long way of saying both players almost certainly need more carries to get to 1,000 rushing yards.

It’s all a possibility worth monitoring for one of the NFL’s best running back duos in 2022, especially if Jones and Dillon get off to a hot start or catch fire at some point during the regular season.

Over a decade ago, Williams and Stewart were a slash-and-smash duo for the run-heavy Panthers. In 2022, Jones and Dillon complement each other in similar ways and will play featured roles for the Packers.

“We’re fortunate, we’ve got two No. 1 backs,” LaFleur said earlier this year. “We’re super excited about those guys.”

Can an evolving Packers offense and the extraordinary talents of Jones and Dillon create the first 1,000-yard rushing duo since 2009?

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More expected from Packers RBs Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon in passing game

Packers RBs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon should be expected to help replace some of the production lost in the passing game in 2022.

Replacing the production of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the Green Bay Packers passing game won’t fall squarely on the remaining wide receivers on the roster. Running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are capable receivers and should be expected to see more targets and create more production for an evolved Packers offense during the 2022 season.

Last year, Jones and Dillon combined to catch 86 passes on 102 targets for 704 yards and seven touchdowns.

It would be surprising if both the catches and targets didn’t increase in 2022.

With fewer plays designed specifically for one receiver in the playbook, coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Aaron Rodgers now have the freedom to find creative ways of getting the ball to Jones and Dillon in the passing game.

Having Dillon entering Year 3 after leading the Packers in rushing last season is a big reason why LaFleur should be able to use Jones in more creative ways, especially as a receiver. There are ways of getting both on the field together and using Jones in multiple alignments, and the Packers don’t have to fear overusing either player because the team sees both Jones and Dillon as legitimate No. 1 backs.

Jones hasn’t necessarily been dynamic in the passing game. He has averaged 7.9 yards per catch and 5.8 yards per target over his five-year career, and only once has he averaged more than 8.0 yards per catch or 6.0 yards per target during a single season. So the Packers do need to get better at maximizing the efficiency and production of Jones’ touches in the passing game. But everything about his skill set screams untapped potential as a receiver. He has terrific hands, an explosive lower body for winning within routes and the shiftiness to make people miss once he has the football.

The 247-pound Dillon was a revelation last season as a receiver. He caught 34 of 37 passes, averaged 9.2 yards per catch and 8.5 yards per target. Wanting to be an “all-purpose back” in 2022, Dillon said he’s put work into becoming a more well-rounded player, both as a runner and receiver. He already showed soft hands and an ability to make something happen after the catch in 2021.

Together, Jones and Dillon have the ability to carry more of the load for the Packers offense in 2022. They could each get more carries for a team that is configured to run the ball at a higher rate, but both are also capable of picking up some of the slack in the passing game. Most importantly, they have a coach who is willing and capable of designing plays to get them the ball in space.

Passes to running backs are generally safe, high percentage plays. Call them easy yards. The Packers should prioritize more of them in large part because Jones and Dillon are two of offense’s best weapons and LaFleur and Rodgers are going to need more easy completions without Adams’ ability to get open and Valdes-Scantling’s threatening downfield speed.

Packers expecting more explosive runs from RB A.J. Dillon in 2022

The Packers are confident A.J. Dillon has the running talent to create more explosive runs during the 2022 season.

The Green Bay Packers are expecting more explosive runs from hulking running back A.J. Dillon during the 2022 season.

Despite leading the team in rushing with 803 yards, Dillon produced only two rushes of 20 or more yards in 2021. He was one of only seven running backs in the NFL to carry the ball 150 or more times and have two or fewer runs of 20 or more yards last season.

Running backs coach Ben Sirmans said Dillon and the rest of the Packers running game missed some opportunities “that could have been big explosive runs,” but he’s confident Dillon has the type of talent necessary to create more big plays this season.

“He’s got that type of ability. He can make you miss in the open field. You think about the plays like the Chicago run that he had,” Sirmans said last month. “He’s faster than what most people think. He’s got the ability to put a little juke on you, even for a guy his size. So really it’s just putting all those facets to his game and putting them together. I do think he’ll have more explosive runs this year.”

The shortage wasn’t limited to just 20-yard runs. Dillon had only nine runs of 10 or more yards, which ranked tied for 49th among running backs.

“Breakaway percentage” from Pro Football Focus helps further highlight this lack of big runs. The stat looks at percentage of a player’s rushing yards from runs of at least 15 yards during a given season. Dillon finished at 11.2 percent, which ranked 53rd out of 61 qualifying running backs in 2021.

Dillon’s longest run of the season came in Chicago. He broke into the second level, juked the safety in the hole and then burst into the open field, creating a 36-yard run that set up a touchdown. Dillon explained the run here.

But most of Dillon’s runs during his breakout second season were short but efficient gains between the tackles. He ranked first among NFL running backs in success rate, a metric from Football Outsiders that records how often a player records a successful in a given down-and-distance scenario.

Home-run hitting just wasn’t a big part of Dillon’s game as a second-year runner. To keep with the baseball analogy: He hit a lot of singles and the occasional double.

The Packers now want to mesh Dillon’s ability to consistently get what is required with more explosive runs, which often create instant scoring opportunities.

Even at 247 pounds, Dillon ran the 40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds at the combine. His “Speed Score,” which combines weight and speed, ranked second behind only Jonathan Taylor in the 2020 draft class. In addition to speed, Dillon’s tackle-breaking ability is perfectly suited for making the unblocked defender miss, which is often vital for creating big runs.

In summation: Everything he needs is there, but now Dillon must make it happen more consistently on the field.

Dillon said his goal for 2022 is to be an “APB,” or all-purpose back. Adding an explosive element provides another area of improvement and another aspect he can add to his overall game as a runner.

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A.J. Dillon’s legs stole the show at Packers charity softball event

Quadzilla was rampaging around the bases at the Packers annual charity softball event on Sunday.

The beast known as Quadzilla was spotted at Fox Cities Stadium in Appleton on Sunday afternoon.

On a day when Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Matt LaFleur and other stars of the Packers past and present were together, it was the legs of running back A.J. Dillon that stole the show.

The Packers “stars” led by Dillon and Aaron Jones beat the “legends” 5-4 in the annual charity softball game on Sunday. Photos of Dillon’s legs – fashioned in short athletic shorts for ultimate admiration – were the biggest winner.

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2022 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is actually more interesting than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2022?

Both the Bears and Dolphins have a Top-5 schedule for running backs, but they had great schedules last year as well, so there’s no boost for their offenses.

Best schedule swings

Seattle Backfield – This is worth tracking through the offseason because whoever tops the depth chart gets to face an easy schedule, far better than the No. 31 they faced last year.  Chris Carson’s neck injury is a major question mark, Rashaad Penny has been an injury waiting to happen aside from a handful of games last year, and they tabbed Kenneth Walker as the second running back drafted back in April. Losing Russell Wilson already has the Seahawks looking to do more with the run and a friendlier schedule should help accommodate that plan – whichever back can take advantage.

Devin Singletary/James Cook (BUF) – The Bills backfield only ranked No. 31 in carries last year, and their schedule (No. 19) was mostly average. They upgraded to the No. 1 running back schedule in total points for 2022 which should encourage more rushing, and the rookie James Cook was the third running back taken in the NFL draft.  But so long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the pass-happy scheme, the backfield won’t likely take full advantage of a schedule gift this year.

D’Andre Swift/Jamaal Williams (DET) – The fantasy community is higher on the oft-dinged Swift and the schedule makes that sentiment even stronger. Rocketing up from the No. 26 spot to the No. 2 will make a difference so long as Swift can stay healthy. The Lions’ offensive talent promises to be at least incrementally better this season and facing a lighter set of opponents will improve them even further.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – The Ravens backfield is another unit that is a committee with a lot more questions than answers. Dobbins and Gus Edwards return (probably) from injury. Mike Davis and the rookie Tyler Badie were added. The Ravens’ backfield struggled with injuries last year and ranked in the Bottom-5 for most running back categories. The schedule lightens up significantly but the roles of individually players remain murky.

Antonio Gibson/J.D. McKissic/Brian Robinson (WAS) – There’s a definite bump up in ease of schedule for the Commanders’ backfield, but the division of labor appears to be even greater this season. McKissic returns for the third-down role, Gibson was good last year but not as great as hoped, and they added the bull Robinson who could figure in for short-yardage and goal-line work.  Gibson could lose at least minor touches, but at least he’ll have an easier schedule for an advantage.

Worst schedule swings

Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon (GB) – The Packers backfield ranked slightly above average in most fantasy metrics last year but even that may be hard to replicate in a season where they drop from the No. 2 to the No. 25 schedule for running backs. The backfield already split touches between Jones (223) and Dillon (224) last season and now they’ll face tougher defenses. Jones is less likely to be impacted as the primary receiver in the backfield.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The shift to a non-Roethlisberger offense already casts uncertainty on the offense and Harris already was one of the elite backs as a rookie, so he’ll be challenged to repeat his great 2021. Falling from No. 4 to No. 27 in schedule strength will have an impact, but his role as a rusher and how often he’ll be used as a receiver with Mitchell Trubisky under center remains unknown.

Cam Akers (LAR) – Tearing his Achilles erased his 2021 season other than returning very late and doing very little. Now Akers will be a year removed from the same injury that ended most players’ careers and he has to face a decline from the No. 3 schedule of last year to only No. 24. The Rams’ backfield was only average in rushing for 2021 and in the Bottom-3 in all receiving categories for running backs. Akers has an uphill battle to meet the expectations that he spawned last year before his injury.

Josh Jacobs (LV) – After two seasons of mostly RB1-level production, Jacobs’ outlook isn’t as shiny as it once was. He’s due to be a free agent in 2023 and isn’t expected to be a great fit for the new Patriots-style offense that new head coach Josh McDaniels is installing. The backfield is already a bit murky with Kenyan Drake returning from a broken ankle, ex-Patriot Brandon Bolden signing, and drafting Georgia’s Zamir White who some speculate could replace Jacobs this year. The Raiders faced the No. 20 schedule for running backs in 2021 and now are pitted against the No. 32 slate of opponents for this season. It all casts shadows that may never turn bright.

Kings of third down: Running Backs

The best running backs on third down.

Want to know who is really a third-down back? That guy who has to keep the drive alive as the most reliable weapon for that play? Some of the names will surprise, but this shows every third-down attempt made by a running back that had at least ten attempts during the season. Overall, the players with the most third-down plays were Najee Harris (43), Jonathan Taylor (40), and Ezekiel Elliott (38) but let’s take a look at how they broke down.

Below are the Top-20 in the category considering the 44 running backs with least ten third-down attempts. This is an interesting and relative measurement as to how reliable and successful running backs were for their team as they strived to keep offensive drives alive. Plays resulting in touchdowns on third down were counted as a first down since they were the most successful conclusion to a play.

Third-down rushes

Third Down Runs Carries First Downs
1 James Conner 32 18
2 Jonathan Taylor 31 20
3 Antonio Gibson 28 16
4 Ezekiel Elliott 27 18
5 Javonte Williams 23 13
6 Najee Harris 22 12
7 Rex Burkhead 21 13
8 Sony Michel 21 8
9 D’Andre Swift 21 6
10 Dalvin Cook 19 7
11 Brandon Bolden 19 6
12 Alvin Kamara 19 5
13 AJ Dillon 17 12
14 Jamaal Williams 17 11
15 David Montgomery 17 8
16 Leonard Fournette 16 12
17 Saquon Barkley 15 7
18 Joe Mixon 15 6
19 Darrell Henderson 15 5
20 Devontae Booker 14 8

James Conner was expected to be the No. 2 back in Arizona but was given the most rushing attempts on third down of any back. Jonathan Taylor naturally shines in this category and it’s encouraging to see that Javonte Williams was the preferred rusher on third downs for the Broncos. This also indicates how more complex offenses have become, with running backs averaging fewer than two such plays per game at most.

And it also points at how committee backfields spread out their workloads, with surprisingly high ranks for Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, Brandon Bolden and Jamaal Williams. Of course, third downs are very often passing downs, and these stats only reflect totals without considering games missed due to injury. But these are how often a back ran the ball on third down.

Third-down yards-per-carry

Yards Per Carry YPC Carries
1 Chase Edmonds 12.9 11
2 Kareem Hunt 8.3 11
3 Travis Homer 8.3 8
4 D’Andre Swift 7.3 21
5 Aaron Jones 7.3 8
6 Dalvin Cook 6.8 19
7 Javonte Williams 6.7 23
8 D’Ernest Johnson 6.7 14
9 Ty Johnson 6.6 8
10 Michael Carter 6.3 7
11 Devontae Booker 6.2 14
12 Kenneth Gainwell 6.1 13
13 Leonard Fournette 5.5 16
14 Alvin Kamara 4.6 19
15 David Johnson 4.4 9
16 Ezekiel Elliott 4.3 27
17 Mike Davis 4.0 7
18 James Robinson 3.8 10
19 Brandon Bolden 3.8 19
19 Jonathan Taylor 3.8 31
19 Najee Harris 3.8 22

The yards-per-carry can reflect how many yards there were to go for a first down and the infamous “run the ball on third-and-18” does apply. D’Andre Swift (7.3) and Javonte Williams (6.7) were the best with over 20 carries.  Several “no names” like Travis Homer, Ty Johnson, Mike Davis appear, but they all had low carries to judge.

Third-down rushing success

Made First Down Success % First Downs Carries
1 Aaron Jones 88% 7 8
2 J.D. McKissic 86% 6 7
3 Chase Edmonds 82% 9 11
4 Leonard Fournette 75% 12 16
5 Michael Carter 71% 5 7
6 AJ Dillon 71% 12 17
7 Melvin Gordon 70% 7 10
8 Kenneth Gainwell 69% 9 13
9 Ezekiel Elliott 67% 18 27
10 Christian McCaffrey 67% 4 6
11 Jamaal Williams 65% 11 17
12 Jonathan Taylor 65% 20 31
13 Tony Pollard 63% 5 8
14 Rex Burkhead 62% 13 21
15 James Robinson 60% 6 10
16 Miles Sanders 60% 6 10
17 Darrel Williams 58% 7 12
18 Antonio Gibson 57% 16 28
19 Devontae Booker 57% 8 14
20 Mike Davis 57% 4 7

Aaron Jones (88%) was the best at converting third-down runs, but AJ Dillon (71%) was also effective which indicates the strength of the Green Bay offensive line. The most successful rushers on third down were mostly those with fewer attempts. Ezekiel Elliott had a down year but was still the most successful rusher of those with higher attempts. J.D. McKissic surprises with 86% of his seven rushes gaining a first down. Antonio Gibson (57%) was also Top-20 indicating the Commanders blocking was better than expected this year.

Third-down receptions

This only counted catches, not targets. In fairness, many if not most incompletions to running backs are the quarterback throwing the ball away. So only receptions were considered.

 Receptions Catches First Downs
1 Najee Harris 21 9
2 Brandon Bolden 18 10
3 Austin Ekeler 15 5
4 J.D. McKissic 15 6
5 D’Andre Swift 13 8
6 Ty Johnson 13 8
7 Melvin Gordon 13 4
8 Javonte Williams 13 5
9 Mike Davis 12 4
10 Aaron Jones 12 3
11 Cordarrelle Patterson 12 8
12 David Johnson 12 5
13 Rex Burkhead 12 5
14 Ameer Abdullah 11 7
15 Ezekiel Elliott 11 7
16 Chase Edmonds 11 3
17 Myles Gaskin 10 6
18 Alvin Kamara 10 3
19 David Montgomery 10 5
20 Christian McCaffrey 10 7

This is where the third-down backs should shine. But Najee Harris dominated the category and yet had  far more rushes than the others. Javonte Williams did well as a third-down rusher and split 26 catches with Melvin Gordon, which shows where the passes end up on third down in Denver. Still, only Harris and Bolden averaged more than one per game.

Third-down yards-per-catch

Yards Per Catch YPC Catches
1 James Conner 17.8 5
2 Darrel Williams 13.5 8
3 Joe Mixon 13.5 6
4 Jonathan Taylor 12.8 9
5 Cordarrelle Patterson 12.2 12
6 Michael Carter 12.0 3
7 Brandon Bolden 10.6 18
8 J.D. McKissic 10.5 15
9 Travis Homer 10.0 9
10 Ty Johnson 9.7 13
11 Devontae Booker 9.6 9
12 Ameer Abdullah 9.5 11
13 D’Andre Swift 9.3 13
14 Austin Ekeler 9.3 15
15 David Montgomery 8.4 10
16 Dalvin Cook 8.4 5
17 Miles Sanders 8.4 5
18 Javonte Williams 8.2 13
19 Ezekiel Elliott 7.9 11
20 Tony Pollard 7.7 7
21 Christian McCaffrey 7.7 10

James Conner shows his worth to the Cardinals in many metrics, and while he only had five catches on third down, he made the most of them. He averaged over ten yards per catch in five different matchups. Jonathan Taylor did well despite being the focus of most opposing defenses regardless of down or distance. The Patriot backfield was very well represented in all of the metrics since their passing scheme was so short in most weeks, and that’s likely to recede for 2022 as Mac Jones throws more downfield.

Third-down reception success

Made First Down success % First Downs Catches
1 James Conner 100% 5 5
2 Antonio Gibson 100% 3 3
3 Devonta Freeman 75% 3 4
4 Christian McCaffrey 70% 7 10
5 Joe Mixon 67% 4 6
6 Cordarrelle Patterson 67% 8 12
7 Ezekiel Elliott 64% 7 11
8 Ameer Abdullah 64% 7 11
9 Ty Johnson 62% 8 13
10 D’Andre Swift 62% 8 13
11 Myles Gaskin 60% 6 10
12 Dalvin Cook 60% 3 5
13 Kenneth Gainwell 57% 4 7
14 Brandon Bolden 56% 10 18
15 Devontae Booker 56% 5 9
16 Travis Homer 56% 5 9
17 Darrel Williams 50% 4 8
18 David Montgomery 50% 5 10
19 Leonard Fournette 50% 3 6
20 Kareem Hunt 50% 3 6
20 Saquon Barkley 50% 1 2

Half of the NFL teams had a running back with over 50% success when catching a third-down pass. James Conner and Antonio Gibson had minimal catches but gained a first on each. Gibson was expected to play a far larger role as a receiver in 2021 than he did, but this says they under-used him to be sure. None of the Top-20 had more than ten first downs as a receiver, but this metric says as much about the offensive scheme as it does the player. Plenty of the names here had only minor fantasy value at best.

Third-down overall

This is the “Big Daddy Ranking” for how successful running backs were combining rushes and receptions on third down.

Player Success % Total Thirds Total Firsts Catches First Downs Carries First Downs
1 Christian McCaffrey 69% 16 11 10 7 6 4
2 Leonard Fournette 68% 22 15 6 3 16 12
3 AJ Dillon 67% 18 12 1 0 17 12
4 Ezekiel Elliott 66% 38 25 11 7 27 18
5 Kenneth Gainwell 65% 20 13 7 4 13 9
6 James Conner 62% 37 23 5 5 32 18
7 Antonio Gibson 61% 31 19 3 3 28 16
8 Jamaal Williams 60% 20 12 3 1 17 11
9 Michael Carter 60% 10 6 3 1 7 5
10 Jonathan Taylor 58% 40 23 9 3 31 20
11 Cordarrelle Patterson 57% 21 12 12 8 9 4
12 Ty Johnson 57% 21 12 13 8 8 4
13 Devontae Booker 57% 23 13 9 5 14 8
14 Darrel Williams 55% 20 11 8 4 12 7
15 Rex Burkhead 55% 33 18 12 5 21 13
16 J.D. McKissic 55% 22 12 15 6 7 6
17 Chase Edmonds 55% 22 12 11 3 11 9
18 Tony Pollard 53% 15 8 7 3 8 5
19 Kareem Hunt 53% 17 9 6 3 11 6
20 Javonte Williams 50% 36 18 13 5 23 13
21 Myles Gaskin 50% 24 12 10 6 14 6
22 Aaron Jones 50% 20 10 12 3 8 7
23 Ameer Abdullah 50% 16 8 11 7 5 1
24 Najee Harris 49% 43 21 21 9 22 12
25 David Montgomery 48% 27 13 10 5 17 8
26 Melvin Gordon 48% 23 11 13 4 10 7
27 Joe Mixon 48% 21 10 6 4 15 6
28 Saquon Barkley 47% 17 8 2 1 15 7
29 Travis Homer 47% 17 8 9 5 8 3
30 Miles Sanders 47% 15 7 5 1 10 6
31 James Robinson 47% 15 7 5 1 10 6
32 Chuba Hubbard 45% 20 9 6 1 14 8
33 Brandon Bolden 43% 37 16 18 10 19 6
34 Mike Davis 42% 19 8 12 4 7 4
35 Dalvin Cook 42% 24 10 5 3 19 7
36 D’Andre Swift 41% 34 14 13 8 21 6
37 Josh Jacobs 38% 16 6 4 0 12 6
38 Sony Michel 36% 22 8 1 0 21 8
39 D’Ernest Johnson 36% 22 8 8 3 14 5
40 Devonta Freeman 33% 15 5 4 3 11 2
41 Darrell Henderson 29% 17 5 2 0 15 5
42 Austin Ekeler 29% 24 7 15 5 9 2
43 David Johnson 29% 21 6 12 5 9 1
44 Alvin Kamara 28% 29 8 10 3 19 5

These were the 44 running backs with at least ten attempts on third down. Some running backs didn’t reach ten due to injury. Some reached ten while filling in for better running backs who missed time injured. But this is what third-down looked like for running backs in the NFL in 2021.

The Good – Christian McCaffrey is such a force when he is healthy. Ezekiel Elliott seemed less effective this year, but not on third down. Jonathan Taylor was the top running back for 2021 and showed up with 58% success on third down. Most of the top backs did well in this overall measurement that yields encouragement for this season for AJ Dillon, Antonio Gibson, Michael Carter, and Leonard Fournette where ever he ends up.  Kenneth Gainwell and Jamaal Williams were surprisingly effective in their respective roles in committee backfields. The expectation was that the top fantasy backs would be at the top, but the Top-20 was chock-full of lesser players with marginal fantasy value. It speaks to the continued division of duties in backfields, along with the effects of injuries and COVID-19.

The Bad – Alvin Kamara – are you okay? The Saints entered the year with one of the best offensive lines, but he was only successful on 28% of his third-down attempts. Austin Ekeler had a fine year for fantasy but just wasn’t that good on third down on a team that featured a very capable passing game to concern the opposing defense. Each running back had a unique situation and their success is still dependent on the entire offense doing their job. Dalvin Cook (42%), Josh Jacobs (38%) and D’Andre Swift (41%) were all highly rated backs entering 2021 and just didn’t fare as well on third down as most other starting running backs.

The Interesting – It may be overly optimistic to make any hard and fast conclusions about these running backs, but it is one more piece of information to throw in to each players’ bucket of characteristics. Here are a few of the questions that this spawns for me – you might find others as well.

James Conner – He’s only 26 and a free agent. He outperformed Chase Edmonds in every measurement, and even more so here. He was in a “pass first” offense but was effective rushing and receiving on third down. The Edmonds experiment is over, what will the Cards do?

Leonard Fournette – He’s only 27 and a free agent.  He was already the most productive back on the market and second only to Christian McCaffrey on third down. The Bucs are undergoing a change in 2022 anyway, but Fournette’s outlook seems bright regardless of where he ends up.

Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders – The success of Gainwell (65%) over Miles Sanders (47%) was maybe the biggest surprise. What will Year 2 under HC Nick Sirianni look like?

Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift – The first season for HC Dan Campbell was hoped to unleash Swift more, but both he and Williams missed three games. And the backfield overall was split. Williams was effective on third down (60%) but Swift (41%) lagged on his 34 attempts as opposed to the 20 for Williams. Can Swift justify being more than just a busy third-down back? He didn’t last year.

Michael Carter – He squeaked in with only ten third-down attempts but was successful on 60% while a rookie on a very bad offense. And behind one of the worst lines in the NFL. Hard to expect much with the Jets in a perpetual cycle of rebuilding, but has he earned a bigger role this year as the most effective rusher and Tevin Coleman likely gone? Then again, Ty Johnson (57%) was nearly as effective and had double the third-down attempts.

Third down is a critical part of all offensive drives and running backs tend to be the most relied on for most NFL offenses. But this is evaluating only one or two plays per game for the listed backs. It is an interesting measurement, but certainly not the only one or even the most important. But the importance of third-down success is hard to overvalue.

Six points with David Dorey

Friday’s quick look at six fantasy items to know

Heading into Week 6, and we’ll remember the past week for many years. It was a troubling and disappointing situation that led to the resignation of Jon Gruden, and that no doubt will ripple through the Raiders’ performances for weeks to come. It’s been quite the decline for the Raiders who were 3-0 and seemed to reach a higher level, to now with two consecutive losses and a distraction that won’t go away for a while.

There’s only one unbeaten team and two that have yet to win a game. We’re just now reaching the one-third mark of the season with plenty of football left to play. If you think that the NFL is settled as to the good and bad teams, realize that the Buccaneers were only 3-2 at this point last season. There are  still many twists and turns left to experience, and more significant players are lost to injury.

Here are six items I’m following for Week 6.

1.)  QB Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – He was taken off injured reserve, and is  potentially available for the matchup with the Jaguars in London. We only saw Tagovailoa for one full game – the win at New England – before he was injured. The roles of the tight ends and wide receivers could, and almost certainly will, change switching from Jacoby Brissett back to Tagovailoa. Mike Gesicki didn’t have a catch in Week 1, but improved significantly with Brissett.

More importantly, Jaylen Waddle’s only touchdown on the year was in the opener. It may be Week 6, but the Dolphins passing offense hasn’t really had a chance to get on track with Tagovailoa out. The next four games are against the Jaguars,  Falcons, Bills, and Texans. Almost all of the upcoming games have  softer secondaries that will improve the passing stats. It just depends on when they return Tagovailoa as the starter.

2.) WR James Washington (Steelers) – His best performance was four catches  for 69 yards in Week 4, and then he was inactive with a groin injury in Week 5. The Steelers lost JuJu Smith-Schuster, and that opens up the depth chart for Washington to assume a larger role.  Smith-Schuster hasn’t been as productive this season, but shrinking the wideout rotation from four to only three will net more work for Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Washington. Playing the Seahawks should be a great chance to see how the wideouts shake out now that Smith-Schuster is gone.

3.) WR Rashod Bateman (Ravens) – The 1.27 pick by the Ravens  has yet to be activated from injured reserve due to core muscle surgery but still has a chance for this week’s tilt with the Chargers. Sammy Watkins is nursing a hamstring injury and is not a lock to play, so Bateman is even more likely to be activated. He could be activated and then not played, but the ex-Minnesota star was the sixth wideout drafted and ran a 4.39 40-time. Marquise Brown is meeting expectations as the No. 1 receiver this season, but Watkins and the other wideout lack the spark that Bateman might provide.

4.) RB AJ Dillon (Packers) – The No. 2 running back for the Packers hasn’t meant anything more than just the handcuff to own, considering that Aaron Jones typically misses a few games each season. That could change. Dillon ran 15 times for 48 yards in Week 4 in the win over the Steelers. Last week, he ran eight times for 30 yards to 14 rushes for 103 yards by Jones. But both backs caught four passes, and Dillon scored on his four receptions for 49 yards. The Packers have inexplicably let Robert Tonyan turn back into a pumpkin with only one or two inconsequential catches per game. There’s room for Dillon to become more involved and head coach Matt LaFleur has spoken to getting more work for Dillon.

5.) Seattle offense – The loss of Russell Wilson for up to six weeks with a fracture and torn tendon in his finger has an unknown effect on the offense. The Seahawks haven’t started anyone else since 2011. And Geno Smith hasn’t been more than a back-up since 2014. Playing at the Steelers without Wilson and maybe even Carson isn’t ideal but should give an idea of what to expect when Smith passes. The offense runs through DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett when Wilson plays, but that may not be the case since they’ll face the secondaries of the Steelers and Saints next. Gerald Everett was just activated from the COVID-19 list and may see more targets with Smith as the starter.

Smith played in the fourth quarter against the Rams, and his 17 passes were mostly directed at Metcalf (5), Lockett (3), and Will Dissly (3). The tight end Dissly only had one target in three quarters with Wilson.

6.) Houston wideouts – The Texans  are likely to leave Tyrod Taylor on injured reserve for at least this week, even though he’s already spent three weeks healing his hamstring injury. His return will boost the receiving stats for the wideouts and there’s been at least some temporary movement there. Brandin Cooks remains the No. 1 wideout, and as such, was shut down by the Patriots. But Chris Conley went from three catches for 40 yards on the season to three receptions for 84 yards and one touchdown last week. Chris Moore was called up from the practice squad to cover for Nico Collins, and he gained 109 yards and a score on five catches.

All of which may not mean much, and the return of Taylor could change the passing up yet again. But the Texans have made almost no use of their tight ends as receivers, and Cooks has been the only wideout with any fantasy value. If Conley and Chris Moore can show anything again this week, it means a lot to an offense that should pass better when Taylor is back. Danny Amendola may return and assumedly replaces Moore. But this wideout group should see a boost from Tyrod Taylor as early as next week. And the Texans will need to throw every week.

Tunnel Vision of Week 5

Tunnel Vision – a look back at Sunday for fantasy free agents, injuries and notable performances.

SUNDAY SALUTES
Quarterbacks Pass-Rush TD
 Justin Herbert 398 – 29 5
Tom Brady 411 – 13 5
 Jameis Winston 279 – 26 4
 Josh Allen 315 – 59 4
 Davis Mills 312 – 2 3
Running Backs Yards TD
Austin Ekeler 17-66 rush
5-53 catch		 3
Myles Gaskin 5-25 rush
10-74 catch		 2
Derrick Henry 29-130 rush 3
Alvin Kamara 16-71 rush
5-51 catch		 2
Alexander Mattison 25-113 rush
7-40 catch		 1
Wide Receivers Yards TD
Davante Adams 11-206 1
Mike Williams 8-165 2
Antonio Brown 7-124 2
Kadarius Toney 10-189 0
Mike Evans 6-113 2
Tight Ends Yards TD
David Njoku 7-149 1
Kyle Pitts 9-119 1
Hunter Henry 6-75 1
Dawson Knox 3-117 1
Dalton Schultz 6-79 0
Placekickers XP FG
Greg Zuerlein 5 3
Greg Joseph 1 4
Mason Crosby 1 4
Nick Folk 1 4
Chase McLaughlin 4 2
Defense Sack – TO TD
Titans 2 – 2 1
Cowboys 2 1
Vikings 4 – 2 0
Eagles 3 – 3 0
Bills 2 – 4 1

Bumps, Bruises and Bowouts

QB Taysom Hill – Concussion
QB Daniel Jones – Concussion
QB Joe Burrow – Throat contusion
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Knee
RB Damien Harris – Ribs
RB Saquon Barkley – Ankle
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster – Shoulder
WR Deonte Harris – Hamstring
WR Quintez Cephus – Shoulder
WR Kenny Golladay – Knee
TE Maxx Williams – Leg

Chasing Ambulances

QB Daniel Jones (NYG) – Left with a concussion and was replaced by Mike Glennon, who will be the starter if Jones cannot play this weekend. The next two weeks are against the Rams and Panthers, which sport elite defenses. There’s minimal fantasy value in grabbing Glennon if he is needed to replace Jones.

QB Joe Burrow (CIN) – Was taken to a hospital with a throat contusion that he suffered during the game when someone poked their fingers into his neck. Burrow said later that he didn’t think it would keep him out this week when they play at the Lions.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) – He was bent backward awkwardly and was in a great deal of pain with a knee injury. He was carried from the field, and there is concern that the injury could be serious. Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon saw more work, with Williams the most effective with five rushes for 25 yards and three catches for 18 yards. Barring unexpected positive news, Williams will be taking over as the primary back for the Chiefs.

RB Damien Harris (NE) – He left  with injured ribs, returned, and then left again. He’s worth tracking but early speculation is that he’ll be able to play this week when they host the Cowboys. Rhamondre Stevenson filled in with 11 rushes for 23 yards. Stevenson is worth owning if only because Harris has been less than durable in the past, but he seems to have left all his magic back in the preseason.

RB Saquon Barkley (NYG) – Rolled his ankle badly when he stepped on a defender’s shoe and was carted from the game. Early word has it that X-rays were negative and that it is only a low-ankle sprain. That could heal far quicker than initial expectations when his ankle immediately swelled up, and he was in considerable pain. Devontae Booker ran for 42 yards and a touchdown as a replacement in Dallas and should be owned as a handcuff by every Barkley owner. More information will given later in the week, but it appears he avoided serious injury.

WR Kenny Golladay (NYG) – Left with an unspecified knee injury that will be better explained by Wednesday. HC Joe Judge wouldn’t comment on any of the Giants’ injured players, so Golladay’s status remains unknown. Kadarius Toney had a breakout performance and will be the free agent of the week in leagues where he is still on the waiver wire.

TE Maxx Williams (ARI) – Appeared to suffer a severe injury to his right knee that was severely hyperextended in the best scenario but looks likely to be ligament damage. There’s no fantasy-relevant replacement for him among the tight ends, but he had accounted for 193 yards and a score in his first four games. That production more likely is shifted to either the running backs or wideouts like Ronald Moore.

Free Agents, Flops and Other Notables

Bye Weeks –  This week starts the byes, and we lose the Falcons, Saints, Jets, and 49ers. But this is the time to plan for Week 7 when fantasy rosters take a hit without players from the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, and Steelers. Look for replacements before everyone else does next week.

TE Kyle Pitts (ATL) – The first-round rookie finally had his breakout performance with  a team-high nine catches for 119 yards and one score in the win over the Jets in London. The absence of both Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage helped force Matt Ryan to seek other receivers and Cordarrelle Patterson (7-60) also helped. At least he enters his bye with one big game under his belt.

WR Devonta Smith (PHI) – He’s become a marked man for opposing defenses, but playing in Carolina, he still led the Eagles with seven catches for 77 yards  from a team-high eight targets. That should be favorable for this week against the Buccaneers’ terrible secondary.

RB Chuba Hubbard (CAR) – He’s done just what they hoped when they drafted him. Christian McCaffrey’s backup ran for 101 yards on 24 carries plus caught five passes for 33 yards in the loss to the Eagles. He’ll have another good matchup against the Vikings this week if McCaffrey continues to miss games.

WR Randall Cobb (GB) – Week 3 saw Cobb with five catches for 69 yards and two scores. While it was hoped that it signaled greater use of Cobb, especially considering the loss of Marquez Valdes-Scantling. But he was held to only two catches for 30 yards by the Bengals while Davante Adams blew up again with 206 yards and a score. The Packers’ passing offense won’t ever be balanced unless an opponent can actually limit Davante Adams.

RB AJ Dillon (GB) – The Packers doled 14 carries to Aaron Jones, and he gained 103 yards, but they also gave Dillon eight runs (30 yards) in a very tight game. Both Jones and Dillon ended with four receptions, but while Jones gained only six yards, Dillon accounted for 49 yards and had a 12-yard touchdown catch. For a team that has all but abandoned the tight end as a receiver, it’s a nice direction to see the No. 2 back involved more catching passes.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – As noted in the injury to Damien Harris, Stevenson was active for only the second time this year. He ran 11 times for 23 yards as the clear No. 2 back (for this game, anyway). Brandon Bolden only rushed twice, and he was used as the third-down back again but only gained six yards on four catches. Harris may not miss any time, but if he does, it appears that Stevenson is back in the equation. J.J. Taylor was inactive this week. The Pats host the Cowboys, who bring a Top-10 rushing defense, but in Week 7, the Patriots host the Jets No. 32 defense against running backs.

QB Davis Mills (HOU) – After posting humbling stats for three weeks, the ex-Stanford rookie threw for 312  yards and three touchdowns in one of the bigger surprises of the weekend. Mills even connected well with his wideouts that combined for 11 catches for 216 yards and two touchdowns.

WR Chris Moore (HOU) – When the Texans released Anthony Miller, they said it was to make room for Danny Amendola. But he was inactive this week, and instead, they promoted Moore from the practice squad. He manned the slot and led the team with five catches for 109 yards and scored on a 67-yard pass play. That was even more notable since it happened in the only game that Davis Mills looked comfortable and was highly productive.  The Pats locked onto Brandin Cooks and shut him down. But it gave Moore a chance to play for the first time since leaving the Ravens, where he spent his first four years.

TE Dan Arnold (JAC) – The Jaguars lost DJ Chark last week, and the assumption was that Laviska Shenault would see the biggest boost in targets. It is just one week, but Shenault only caught one of his three targets for a 58-yard gain. Trevor Lawrence threw eight targets to Jamal  Agnew (6-41) and the new tight end Arnold (6-64) who led the team in receiving yardage. That’s a fast assimilation into the game plan for a tight end brought over in a trade just a couple of weeks ago.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) – The rookie made minimal impact in his first three weeks but then posted six catches for 70 yards at the Bears and then seven receptions for 65 yards  at the Bears yesterday. He’s not only seen an increase in targets, but the Lions may be without Quintez Cephus, who left the game with a shoulder injury. The Lions host the Bengals this week.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) – The Steelers’ wideout injured his shoulder and was hospitalized during the matchup with the Broncos. He was immediately ruled out and taken directly during the game. His status should be updated on Monday, and he has already seen a decline in usage this year. If he misses time, it could help James Washington but more likely just heightens the importance of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool.

RB Myles Gaskin (MIA) – There is nothing reliable here, but Gaskin led the Dolphins in receiving in their loss to the Buccaneers. He ended with ten catches for 74 yards and two touchdowns.  Those were his first scores on the year and more receiving production than from his first four games combined.

WR Marquez Callaway (NO) – After minimal production to start the year, Callaway is getting on track. He scored in Week 3, then gained 74 yards on two catches in Week 4. At Washington, he led the Saints with four receptions for 85 yards and two touchdowns. The Saints are on bye this week, but their next three opponents are the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Falcons – all advantageous matchups.

TE David Njoku (CLE) – After never catching more than three passes in any game this year, Njoku became the leading receiver in the loss to the Chargers. He caught all seven targets for 149 yards and one score. He broke a tackle and scored on a 72-yard catch. The Browns will always run first, and it took a game that became an 89-point shootout. But Njoku stepped up when the Browns were forced to pass.

RB Khalil Herbert, RB Damien Williams (CHI) – With David Montgomery on the shelf for the next month or so, the Bears turned to a dual attack relying on both Khalil Herbert (18-75) and Damien Williams (16-64, TD) to great effect. Williams added two receptions for 20 yards. But both backs were used in equal measure for the entire game.

QB Trey Lance (SF) – The rookie’s first start only completed 15-of-29 for 192 yards and one interception, but he was the leading rusher with 16 runs for 89 yards in the loss to the Cardinals. The downside of a running quarterback is that the backfield shared just 11 carries, and only Deebo Samuel (3-58) managed more than 35 receiving yards. Lance only started for one full season in college, so he’s very raw. He adds fantasy value as a rusher, but it comes at the expense of all the other offensive players.

WR Kadarius Toney (NYG) – The Giants’ offense imploded against the Cowboys with injuries to their quarterback, running back, and No. 1 wide receiver. But Toney became the best weapon with 13 targets for ten catches that gained 189 yards. He even ran for seven yards. He earned more work with six receptions for 78 yards in Week 4. He looked like the No. 1 receiver for the Giants – and  could be if Golladay’s injury proves to be serious.

Huddle player of the week

Justin Herbert  –  The second-year quarterback has a tougher schedule for 2021, and he started slowly with only one score in each of the first two games. But he’s roared back with a vengeance and comes off his season-best effort with 398 yards and four passing touchdowns, plus he ran in a fifth  score on his four rushes for 29 yards in his shootout win over the Browns.

Salute!

Drama 101 – Somebody has to laugh, somebody has to cry

Comedy Yards TDs Tragedy Yards TDs
QB David Mills 314 3 QB Russell Wilson 162 1
RB Myles Gaskin 99 2 RB Saquon Barkley 9 0
RB Devontae Booker 58 2 RB Melvin Gordon 43 0
WR Kadarius Toney 189 0 WR Kenny Golladay 0 0
WR Chris Moore 109 1 WR D.J. Moore 39 0
WR Chris Conley 84 1 WR A.J. Brown 38 0
TE David Njoku 149 1 TE Darren Waller 45 0
PK Greg Zuerlein 5  XP  3  FG PK Daniel Carlson 1 FG
Huddle Fantasy Points = 153 Huddle Fantasy Points = 31

Now get back to work…

2021 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Rushing

Who has the easiest schedule for rushing?

The strength of schedule for running backs only considers rushing yardage and scores. There is a significant difference between how often teams use them as receivers, and that impacts the stats allowed by a defense. For a simpler and more 1:1 consideration, this is the strength of schedule for only  rushing production that was allowed by defenses including each home or away venue.

The extra game in the NFL schedule starting this year won’t help running backs to stay healthy as well.

See also:
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Passing
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Rushing
2021 fantasy football schedule strength – Receiving

Total Points

For fantasy contests and such, only total points matter, so below are the total points for each rushing offense derived from their schedule against the average rushing fantasy points allowed in 2020 by those defenses.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22. The middle 20 matchups were neither good nor bad.

Notable schedules

Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams (DEN) – The backfield situation could change from game to game, but whichever back takes the lead will enjoy the most favorable schedule in the NFL. Aside from two midseason games, the entire lineup of opponents is light, and four of the final five matchups go against weaker defenses from 2020.

Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown (MIA) – The Dolphins matchup with the AFC South helps to give the otherwise mediocre backfield a chance to surprise if they don’t add another back and start rotating players. The final nine games only contain one tough venue, and there’s nary a bad weather game possible.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The hottest rookie running back takes a further step in the lead with a schedule that can reward a full-time rusher. He gets a fast start with no bad matchups until Week 8 and then three of the final four games face weak defenses right when you need him most.

David Montgomery (CHI) – Hopefully, the spike in production that ended 2020 picks up again this season while enjoying one of the lighter schedules for rushers. Montgomery faces a mixed set of games through midseason but then faces his final tough venue in Week 9. The Bears fortunes should increase in the second half of the year and the passing offense will be hitting a higher gear by then as well.

James Robinson, Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule is kind aside from a three-game stretch from Week 11 to Week 13. And then the final four games all face favorable matchups during the fantasy playoffs. The split in workload between James Robinson and Travis Etienne may evolve through the season, but the primary back for December should end the season on a high note.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Second-year running back Jonathan Taylor already broke out in 2020 with over 1,100 rushing yards, and he gets a chance to take another step up, facing seven opponents with weaker defenses. The first seven weeks are tough with four bad matchups but then clears up with only one more in the final  nine games while playing in five weak venues. A Week 14 bye will hurt in larger leagues and contests, but hosting the Raiders in Week 17 should end the fantasy year with a bang.

Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette (TB) – There’s already a committee backfield that shifts roles, and now the Super Bowl champion’s path to a repeat navigates the worst rushing schedule of any team. They only play in two of the lighter venues from last year while over half of their matchups go against  the toughest rush defenses. Starting in October, they face a twelve-game stretch without any weak defenses.

Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon (GB) – The quarterback situation will be resolved, but the rushing schedule never improves for the Packers in 2021. After a mostly challenging stretch through midseason, Aaron Jones not only has a Week 13 bye, but the last six weeks of the season produces only one favorable matchup and yet four of the toughest venues for rushers.

2021 weekly grid

 

Average rushing fantasy points allowed (points per game)

Fantasy values were derived from 1 point per 10 rushing yards and six-point rushing touchdowns.