Lobos host Air Force with eyes on staying in second place

New Mexico vs. Air Force: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More Lobos trying to keep share of 2nd place in the MW Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire New Mexico will look to tame the Falcons after Air Force’s big win earlier this …

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New Mexico vs. Air Force: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More


Lobos trying to keep share of 2nd place in the MW


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

New Mexico will look to tame the Falcons after Air Force’s big win earlier this week

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Air Force (8-8, 2-2 MWC) at New Mexico (14-3, 3-1 MWC)

WHEN: Saturday, January 11 — 4:00 P.M. MT / 3:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: DreamStyle Arena, Albuquerque, New Mexico

WATCH: Stadium/Facebook

LISTEN: 96.3 KKOB; Listen Live

ALL-TIME: New Mexico leads the series, 60-23

ODDS: New Mexico -9, per KenPom

GAME PREVIEW

New Mexico will look to keep at least a share of second place in the Mountain West, as the Falcons of Air Force descend upon The Pit on Saturday.

The Lobos are 3-1 in league play so far, trailing only undefeated San Diego State and currently tied with Nevada and UNLV in the standings. Aside from the Aztecs, Paul Weir’s crew has the best overall record in the MW at 14-3, with their loss to San Jose State last week serving as the only defeat since their November 25 tilt with unbeaten Auburn.

New Mexico was back to their winning ways earlier this week, dispatching Fresno State with ease, 78-64. JaQuan Lyle has continued to look like a clear All-Mountain West talent, registering a double-double with 14 points and ten assists.

Even more encouraging for the Lobos is the recent explosion of Vance Jackson. He scored 29 points against the Bulldogs after posting 25 in the loss to the Spartans. Jackson has finished in double figures in five straight games after completing the feat just twice in the team’s first 11 contests.

Adding that extra scoring punch has come at a perfect time as Carlton Bragg makes his way back into the offense. The senior forward was averaging a double-double on the season before his suspension last month. After missing three games, Bragg returned against Fresno State but was ineffective, scoring just two points in 22 minutes on the floor.

But if Weir can get all of his pieces working at the same time, the Lobos may have an outside shot at sneaking into the Big Dance.

Air Force, meanwhile, has finally risen back to .500 after wiping the floor with Utah State on Tuesday. On the back of its stout offense, this Falcons team has started to turn things around after a disappointing 2-5 start to the year. Until the game against the Aggies, though, it wasn’t clear whether this team should be considered much of a threat in the Mountain West.

But Dave Pilipovich and the Falcons made their point.

Ryan Swan had a night to remember against Utah State, scoring a season-high 31 points and adding 11 rebounds. He has overtaken fellow senior Lavelle Scottie as the Falcons’ leading scorer on the season, with sophomore guard AJ Walker not far behind. The trio averages a combined 40 points per night, and both Swan and Walker are shooting over 50% on the year.

As a team, the Falcons have shot at one of the best clips in the country, posting an effective field goal percentage that ranks among the nation’s five best. That number is especially impressive when Scottie’s shooting woes are taken into account. The 6’7” senior was one of the league’s best shooters a year ago, but has struggled to the tune of 47% on two-pointers and 44% overall from the floor.

If he can get hot – and stay that way – Air Force could be a dangerous matchup for just about anyone in the Mountain West.

They’ll test that theory against the Lobos on Saturday.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

It was back to non-conference play last week for the Mountain West. Not everybody was in action—and some who were now wish they hadn’t been.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak


The top two stand pat, but plenty of movement below


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

New Mexico, Boise State climbing in the latest DPI rankings for Week 7

It was back to non-conference play last week for the league’s affiliate members on the heels of the opening salvo to the long Mountain West season. Not everybody was in action—and some now wish they hadn’t been.

But it wasn’t all misery.

Some teams are making big strides, including one squad trying to make a move into the uppermost echelon of the MWC.

Below are the DPI rankings heading into the heart of Week 7. If you’re new to the rankings or just want a refresher, head here for a rundown of how the DPI is calculated. The ratings below reflect games played through Tuesday, December 17. As always, non-Division I games are not counted in the DPI.

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#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

Last Week: #1

The Aztecs moved to the #1 spot in the Mountain West last week and with no games since their close shave against San Jose State, they haven’t moved much up or down. Brian Dutcher’s team is still undefeated and boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Malachi Flynn’s star turn has propelled SDSU into the national polls, along with the play of Matt Mitchell, Yanni Wetzell, and Jordan Schakel. If KJ Feagin can provide a little more offense, this team could really turn in a special season.

#2 — UTAH STATE AGGIES

Last Week: #2

It’s been a bit of a rough patch for the Aggies over the past few games. They still have one of the two best rosters in the league, but they aren’t quite living up to preseason expectations so far. After losing to Saint Mary’s and looking underwhelming in their first two Mountain West games, Utah State fell to BYU on Saturday in Salt Lake City. It was only their second loss, but it’s a missed opportunity for a good out-of-conference win to put on their NCAA Tournament resume.

#3 — NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Last Week: #4

The Lobos have won six straight after toppling New Mexico State and Grand Canyon since the last DPI rankings were posted here. Though they aren’t playing at the level of SDSU just yet, this patchwork roster of homegrown talent and incoming transfers has performed admirably in the early going. JaQuan Lyle has been everything that Paul Weir could have wanted and more. Oh, and Carlton Bragg is averaging a double-double. So far, so good.

#4 — NEVADA WOLF PACK

Last Week: #3

The Wolf Pack looked like they were starting to turn a corner over the past few weeks, winning five straight games on either side of Thanksgiving. But last week, Nevada was the second casualty of BYU’s surge, along with Utah State and UNLV. The offense had been clicking on all cylinders, but immediately downshifted from a 100-point performance against Air Force to a 42-point outing against the Cougars. That kind of volatility that makes it tough to trust Steve Alford’s club.

#5 — BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Last Week: #6

Leon Rice is getting things back on track in Boise, but outside of their win over BYU—before Yoeli Childs came back, of course—the Broncos haven’t really beaten anybody. It was another rocky showing for Boise State last week, with a midweek loss to Tulsa preceding a blowout win over Alabama State. Derrick Alston is averaging 21 points and Justinian Jessup is finding his form. But the starting five is not the problem here; Rice’s team suffers from a lack of depth.

#6 — COLORADO STATE RAMS

Last Week: #5

The Rams jumped out to a promising start, but they’ve lost three of their past four games, including both of their opening Mountain West bouts. Mixed in there was a 72-68 win over South Dakota State, and while the Jackrabbits are not a bad squad by any means, that they played CSU so closely gives a good indication of where the Rams are right now. Niko Medved’s team gave in-state rivals Colorado a run for their money, but ultimately fell 56-48 over the weekend.

#7 — AIR FORCE FALCONS

Last Week: #8

The defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but recently, the Falcons have been getting better results than they did during a rough November. The new month has been kinder to the cadets, with Air Force winning four of its past five (Note: Tuesday’s 99-42  win over Johnson & Wales is not counted in the DPI). AJ Walker has taken an important step forward as an offensive option. The sophomore was averaging 20 points per game over the past three games coming into Tuesday.

#8 — FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

Last Week: #10

Justin Huston finally got his team to a second Division I win on Saturday against Cal Poly. But the bigger story here is the seven losses that they have already incurred. Nate Grimes is doing exactly what was expected of him so far, averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per night. Guards Jarred Hyder and New Williams both have some good performances under their belts, but they haven’t been able to click at the same time. That needs to change.

#9 — UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS

Last Week: #9

The Rebels didn’t play last week, so the bad taste of the 33-point loss to BYU back has been lingering for a week and a half. There have been a lot of close calls, with UNLV playing in four separate overtime games so far. They are shooting under 42% from the field and turning the ball over 15 times a night. Games against Pacific and Robert Morris this week offer TJ Otzelberger the chance to start making some headway in his first year at the helm.

#10 — WYOMING COWBOYS

Last Week: #7

Allen Edwards got his Cowboys out to a 3-3 start, but they have dropped five straight games, including their most recent defeat at the hands of Northern Colorado. The Bears didn’t just sneak past Wyoming, either—the Big Sky hopefuls handed the home team a 21-point drubbing at Arena-Auditorium. The defense has been fair to middling, but the offense has been dreadful thus far. The Cowboys are shooting under 50% on two-pointers and just over 30% on threes.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE SPARTANS

Last Week: #11

There’s a bit of a running joke around here about which Spartan is most likely to transfer next year, since the sputtering Spartans have seen five double-digit scorers depart in the past three offseasons—including Brandon Clarke, who parlayed his post-SJSU star turn at Gonzaga into a budding NBA career. All jokes aside, Seneca Knight has separated himself as the Spartans’ top option, scoring 12.5 points per game. Hopefully the sophomore can remain an important building block for Jean Prioleau.

That’s it for this week. Check back next week to see who’s rising and falling in the Mountain West and be sure to visit the Dieckhoff Power Index daily for updated rankings on all 353 teams in Division I basketball.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Wyoming vs. Air Force: 3 Keys to a Cowboys Victory

Can the Cowboys make it four wins in a row over the Falcons? Here’s our preview of how Wyoming can win.

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Wyoming vs. Air Force: 3 Keys to a Cowboys Victory


Can the Cowboys Make It Four In A Row Over The Falcons?


Contact/Follow @jessetachiquin & @MWCwire

Cowboys vs Falcons

WEEK 14: Wyoming Cowboys (7-4, 4-3 MW) vs Air Force Falcons (9-2, 6-1 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, November 30— 12:00 PM MT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium; Colorado Springs, CO (46,692)

STREAMING: Facebook

RADIO: Wyoming | Air Force

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads 28-26-3 all-time

WEBSITES: Wyoming | Air Force

ODDS (via OddsShark): Air Force -10.5

FEI Projection: Air Force by 15.5

Wyoming will enter Colorado Springs as a considerable underdog according to many prognostications. The Vegas line currently has the Pokes at +10.5, SP+ predicts a 34-20 win for the Falcons, and FEI gives Wyoming only a 22% chance to win. History says otherwise, Craig Bohl is 4-1 vs Air Force while Troy Calhoun is 1-5 against Wyoming since the “Howdy Doody” game of 2012. The Cowboys have won 3 consecutive against the Falcons.

Air Force has been specular to watch on offense behind QB Donald Hammond III and RB’s Kaden Remsburg, Taven Birdow, and Timothy Jackson.

Three Keys to a Wyoming Win

Limit Big Plays in the Passing Game

Which 2 receivers have the highest yard per catch average in the conference? If you guessed Air Force’s Ben Waters (32.1) and Geraud Sanders (25.5), you would be correct. The duo has combined for the second-most receiving touchdowns (13) by conference teammates behind only Ward and Byrd from Hawaii (19). The Falcons are still rushing for over 300 yards per game but their ability to throw has taken their offense to the next level.

Wyoming’s Young Defensive Line Against Air Force’s Option

The Cowboys defensive line is largely responsible for the stifling run defense that has allowed 2.7 yards per carry and 94 rushing yards per game but they have yet to face an offense like Air Force. While the Falcons will probably rush for well over that amount, the closer Wyoming is to keeping Air Force closer to 2.7 yards per carry as opposed to the Falcons average of 5.2 yards per carry will likely determine the outcome.

Stopping the triple-option offense requires a complete team effort and players like Logan Wilson, Cassh Maluia, and Alijah Haliburton know what’s coming on Saturday. The young defensive line will need to catch up to speed quickly if the Pokes are going to have a shot at this one.

Control the Clock

The Cowboys and Falcons have a lot in common, both teams are highly effective at running the ball and stopping the run. The huge difference has been Air Force’s ability to make chunk plays. The Cowboys methodical offense with the Falcons ability to control the clock could be too much to overcome if Wyoming is down by more than a possession. Third down conversion rate and time of possession will extremely important for the Pokes if they are going to spring the upset.

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Air Force Explodes In Second Half To Beat Colorado State 38-21

Colorado State did not have enough to defeat Air Force.

Rams Offense Gets Stuck In Neutral And Defense Out To Dry


Air Force Defeats Colorado State For The Fourth Year In A Row


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Contact/Follow @BradHubbard & @MWCwire

A Complete Breakdown

The Colorado State defense did its part for as long as it could. They were disciplined, getting off the field on third down and even created a couple of turnovers but the Colorado State offense didn’t help them out. Every time the Rams defense stuffed Air Force, the Rams offense would come out and lay an egg. As the game wore on the defense wore down and they eventually broke.

The offensive breakdown can be pointed to one place, the offensive line. While quarterback Patrick O’Brien took some unnecessary sacks, a few times he was running for his life as the Air Force pass rush blew through a porous Rams line. In the end, Air Force recorded eight sacks. They had 14 all season coming into the game.

Missed Opportunities

The Rams let Air Force hang around for too long. While an Air Force fumble on their opening drive led to a 63 yard scoop and score for linebacker Mohamed Kamara, the Rams were unable to capitalize on solid defensive performance early.

The insult to injury was the 99 yard pick six by Air Force defensive back Zane Lewis as O’Brien was trying to pull Colorado State within a score late in the fourth quarter.

After going up 14-0, the Rams were then outscored 38-7 and likely saw their slim bowl game chances disappear into the cold Fort Collins night.

TWO SIDES OF A QB

Patrick O’Brien was at best, off. While the opening drive of the game was a 14 play gem capped off by nice throwback tight end screen for a touchdown, O’Brien was more off than he was on the rest of the game. He fumbled a few times, took unnecessary sacks and looked to be trying too hard to place the ball rather than throwing it.

In O’Brien’s defense, the pass protection deteriorated as the game went on but O’Brien was able to make some throws late to keep things interesting. In the end, O’Brien did not look like the same quarterback we saw against Fresno State or UNLV.

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Air Force vs Colorado State: Three Keys to a Rams Win

CSU has chance to gain bowl eligibility by winning two out of their last three games. Can the Rams beat the Falcons to move a step closer?

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Air Force vs Colorado State: Three Keys to a Rams Win


The Rams have a chance to move closer to bowl eligibility


Contact/Follow @J0shFr3d & @MWCwire

Can the Rams beat a rival?

WEEK 12: Air Force Falcons (7-2, 4-1 Mountain West) vs Colorado State Rams (4-5, 3-2 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, November 16th — 5:00 PM MT/4:00 PM PT

WHERE: Canvas Stadium; Fort Collins, Colorado (41,000)

TV: ESPN2

RADIO: Air Force | Colorado State

SERIES RECORD: This will be the 58th matchup between the two teams. Air Force currently leads the series 35-21-1

WEBSITES: GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website | CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website

ODDS (via OddsShark): Air Force -10

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 14.1 (79% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 20.2

The Colorado State Rams have a chance to gain bowl eligibility by winning two out of their last three games. This week, the Air Force Falcons and their option offense are standing in their way.

After games where the Rams let the Falcons score 40+ points, last season CSU kept the game close, losing 27-19. This season the Rams are riding high on a resurgent defense in conference play. Here’s how CSU can beat the Falcons.

Three Keys to a Colorado State Victory

1. Contain the fullback dive.

The Rams have had the fullback dive drilled into their heads over the past two weeks. “Every day. Every time I walk in the building,” defensive tackle Ellison Hubbard told CSURams.com. “We’re going to hear fullback dive, dive, just dive, dive, dive. We’re going to hear it.”

CSU gave up 260 yards and a touchdown to Cole Fagan last year. Fagan is no longer with the team, but the fullback still plays a big role in the offense with two of the Falcons top three rushers being fullbacks. The Rams need to limit the damage down from the Falcons fullback if they want to win.

2. The defense needs to stay with their assignments.

The Air Force Falcons are an extremely disciplined football team; which comes as a result of their daily military training. They know their assignments and they know how to execute to make a team pay for their mistakes.

If the Rams are to walk away with a victory, they cannot freelance anything. If the CSU defense tries to get cute, the Falcons will break open a big, chunk yards play. The Rams will need to play smash mouth, keep on assignment football to beat the Falcons.

3. Get the running game going.

The Air Force Falcons defense against the run ranks ninth in the country, allowing only 96.8 yards per game. The Rams rushing attack is currently averaging 156.6 yards per game. Something has to give on Saturday and the Rams are hoping it everything falls their way.

Colorado State’s leading rusher, Marvin Kinsey, was suspended and eventually let go from the team. However, the Rams rushing attacked hasn’t faltered at all with Marcus McElroy being the one to step up and take on the roll of a bell cow. McElroy will need to play a big role if the Rams are to win.

Prediction

This game is always a toss-up as to who wins. Yes, Air Force has won more often than not. But the results have varied widely from blowouts by both sides to three-point victories by both sides. The Rams have the ability and talent to match up well against Air Force, it’s just a matter of execution. Expect the Rams to be on after the bye week and win a close game.

CSU 38, Air Force 35

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