Tag: Mountain West Football

Matt’s Mailbag: The Brent Brennan Edition

SJSU reporter Matt Weiner weighs in on questions from fans related to former SJSU head coach Brent Brennan leaving SJSU for Arizona

Matt’s Mailbag: The Brent Brennan Edition

SJSU reporter Matt Weiner weighs in on questions from fans related to former SJSU head coach Brent Brennan leaving SJSU for Arizona

Follow @Mattweiner20 & @MWCwire

Who’s coming in?

Hello and welcome to Matt’s Mailbag™ your go-to destination for all pressing SJSU football matters.

Enough chit-chat. Let’s get into it.

DooDooMac: @TheDooDooMac “Who would you hire?”

Here’s a name: Montana State head coach Brent Vigen. 

Though MSU is an FCS school, he interviewed for the Oregon State head coaching vacancy last December and brings with him an impressive resume. He’s compiled a 21-3 record since taking over MSU. Prior to that, he was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Wyoming when Josh Allen was shredding defenses. 

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HollywoodinSJ @HollywoodinSJ “Will the Administration increase the pay for the assistants? Will they be willing to increase the head coach’s pay a bit as well? What is the health of the athletic department in general? Do we have the cash to do what needs to be done?”

When I asked a source familiar who is familiar with SJSU’s financial predicament about NIL yesterday, I received an interesting answer:

“The whole campus has had cuts to their budgets –  including athletics– and we need to generate donations just for scholarships.”

The source then identified “student enrollment being down” as the reason behind the budget cuts. 

All to say, this doesn’t reflect well on the “health of the athletic department” or bode well for incoming coaches’ contracts. 

And lest we forget, the cost of living in San Jose is 49% higher than the national average and housing is a staggering 142% higher. Plus, SJSU’s donor base is still far from robust. 

Sep 1, 2022; San Jose, California, USA; San Jose State Spartans head coach Brent Brennan reacts during the second quarter against the Portland State Vikings at CEFCU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan B:  @rbizzle16 “We need a short list, rumors, anything… Nick Rolovich’s phone on? Sounds like they don’t want to promote from within.”

My short list is current Montana State head coach Brent Vigen, former UNLV head coach Marcus Arroyo, former Hawaii and Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich and Georgia defensive backs coach Donte Williams, who was an interim head coach at USC in 2021.

Not promoting from within could be a byproduct of SJSU wanting someone with head coaching experience. Which no SJSU coach has.

Coach Darrow Verdad @mule6019 “Is Gary Patterson in the running to become SJSU HC? “

Gary Patterson, the former TCU head coach, should be looked at, but the chances are slim. SJSU doesn’t align with his ambitions to rebuild his image as a premier college football head coach. There’s operating budget concerns, NIL concerns and SJSU doesn’t return four of its five starting offensive lineman, quarterback, running back and safeties from last year. 

Ricky Delgado @RickyDe70535587 “How many players do you think jump ship after hearing the news. Along these lines, do you think our next coach is in house or are we looking outside for the guy.”

I think it’s more likely SJSU goes with an outside hire because of its ambitions to hire someone with head coaching experience. 

If that happens, I think players bolt because that coach may want to bring his own staff and that staff could bring players from their former school. 

Then again, I’m not sure if that’s wise long term. For most of these players, SJSU was their best option. Either they received offers from schools at a lower caliber which decrease their chances of getting exposure needed to reach the next level. Or they received offers from better schools that they’d ultimately ride the bench at. 

Dec 23, 2023; Honolulu, HI, USA; San Jose State Spartans quarterback Chevan Cordeiro (2) scrambles away from Coastal Carolina Chanticleers defensive lineman Will Whitson (44) during the third quarter of the Easypost Hawaii Bowl at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. Mandatory Credit: Steven Erler-USA TODAY Sports

Connor Letourneau @Con_Chron “Does [Alonzo “Zo”] Carter have a real shot? he’s been putting on a PR blitz, but would they really hire a position coach?

I think Carter who is the SJSU running backs and associate head coach, will at least get an interview. But he’ll likely serve as a safety net hire if SJSU can’t come to terms with its favorite candidates. This isn’t a discredit to Carter, but it doesn’t fall in line with a tweet from ESPN’s Pete Thamel that said, “head coaching experience will be a preferred trait that they [SJSU] are looking for.”

Though he was successful, Carter’s head coaching experience at the high school and junior college level in the Bay Area doesn’t translate to a place like SJSU. 

Brennan taking over SJSU as a former position coach is a rare occurrence. And that was a result of candidates not wanting to become head coach because the result could be so disastrous it hinders their chances of ever getting another head coaching opportunity.

“PR Blitz” front wise, the scores of endorsements from media members helps, but I’m sure those rank at the bottom of Konya, SJSU president Cynthia Teniente-Matson and donors’ deciding factors list.

Fake Matt Mumme @FakeCoachMumme “Who makes a bowl game first Coach Brennan at Arizona or the new SJSU coach?

Let’s circle back to this. I need to see who goes where and who replaces who first.

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Al_Bondigas @tichie “Which assistants are staying and which are going?”

It’s difficult to get a read on this. But it’s important to know that Fisch brought his entire offensive staff with him to Washington and current U of A defensive coordinator Johnny Nansen interviewed to replace Fisch. It’s common for someone in Nansen’s position to look elsewhere. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Brennan takes several members of his staff. He’s placed a premium on keeping a continuous unit at SJSU and has praised the school for finding the funds to make his ambitions possible. Furthermore, his current staff is filled with guys he brought with him from Corvallis: SJSU defensive coordinator Derrick Odum, offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven and defensive line coach Joe Seumalo. 

Mountain West Wire @MWCwire “How much blame is there for Nick Saban causing this?”

If I’m an SJSU fan, Nick Saban is public enemy No. 1. 

Let’s trace this:

On Jan. 10 Saban retired from Alabama. Then on Jan. 12 Kalen DeBoer left Washington to fill in for Saban. Which results in Jedd Fisch leaving Arizona to head to Washington on Jan. 14. Then, on the lord’s day of Jan. 16, 2024, Brennan left SJSU for Arizona.

Nov 25, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch shakes hands with Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham after winning the Territorial Cup 59-23 at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow-Arizona Republic

Matt Hamilton @MattHamilton19 SJSU “AD [Jeff] Konya said there would be a national search. Alabama, Washington and Arizona didn’t need a national search. Isn’t that his job? Shouldn’t he have been thinking about this possibility months ago?”

According to one source,  SJSU AD Jeff Konya has likely been preparing for this moment. He’s smart enough to know any success this season could result in Brennan leaping to a Power Five. 

Now, this doesn’t mean Konya was actively interviewing candidates. Rather, just keeping a list of names he felt could step in for Brennan. 

Bru @TXBruce2727 “For the SJSU folks, do we know what BB was making as HC? What FB budget is?”

Brennan received $2.3 million at SJSU in 2023, $1.93 million in 2022 and $1.5 million in 2021. 

I can’t provide an accurate number for the budget – just know it isn’t great. Its practice field’s grass was browning a couple weeks into last year’s fall training camp, a field goal post on that same field is broken and up until last year, its facilities were laughably outdated. 

Laurie Cottrell @LaurieCottrell “As an Arizona fan, I am happy for us-but so sorry for you. Believe me we know how it feels. Hope you find a solid replacement and that this new era of College Football doesn’t decimate the solid smaller programs!”

Pablo Luis @PabloG90 “Sorry SJSU this is a cruel business and we know how you feel.”

Blueleaf @leafblue16 “Arizona fan here, just wanted to say that we sympathize big time and fully understand any frustration. We were and are still there too.”

Ricky Delgado @RickyDe70535587

“With Brennan’s storied history at SJSU (parents went here and was an assistant under Tomey here), I find it impossible for any coach that has as much success here (definitely not more) to leap at the first chance they get. I don’t blame Brennan, but man it hurts.”

In Judaism, when someone passes there’s a week-long mourning session that follows called “Sitting Shiva.” Essentially, you do nothing but grieve, eat, and reminisce on the person who passed. Then you move on with your life. 

We need something like this for college football fans who are forced to watch their coach get poached by a bigger school. 

Former five-star USC quarterback linked to a Mountain West team

Malachi Nelson, one of the top five quarterback prospects in the 2023 class, threw three passes as a freshman with the Trojans.

Former five-star quarterback Malachi Nelson, who spent his freshman 2023 season with USC, is scheduled to make his first official visit at Boise State in the next few days, according to a report from ESPN’s Pete Thamel on Thursday.

Thamel also reported that the Broncos are the current favorite for Nelson, who was 247Sports’ No. 5 quarterback in the Class of 2023.

“(Nelson is) looking for a blue-collar program to blend in and prove himself,” Thamel’s report read on social media.

The ESPN reporter said Nelson was drawn to the Broncos because of their high number of returning starters, including several members of the offensive line. Broncos offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan reportedly recruited Nelson as far back as middle school when he still worked for Washington.

Boise State finished the season with an 8-6 record and a Mountain West title after a late four-game win streak culminated in a 44-20 victory over UNLV in the conference title game. Interim head coach Spencer Danielson was promoted to the position full-time after the triumph.

Sophomore quarterback Taylen Green played in 13 games for the Broncos last season, throwing for 1,752 yards, 11 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He announced his commitment to transfer to Arkansas last month.

Nelson threw three passes in his freshman campaign, completing one for no gain.

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Key Players, Who’s Out and Predictions

The Wyoming Cowboys look to take home an Arizona Bowl win against the Toledo Rockets in Craig Bohl’s final game as head coach.

 

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Game Preview, How to Watch, Odds, Key Players, Who’s Out and Predictions

The Wyoming Cowboys travel to Tucson for the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, taking on the MAC runner-up Toledo Rockets. For the Cowboys’ head coach, Craig Bohl, it will be his final game before retirement, where the Pokes hope to seal its first nine-win season since 1996.

Contact/Follow @KayceeClark and @MWCwire

Mountain West bowl season ends in the desert.

BARSTOOL SPORTS ARIZONA BOWL: Toledo Rockets (11-2, 8-0 MAC) vs. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4, 5-3 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, December 30 — 2:30 PM MT

WHERE: Arizona Stadium (50,782)

TV: CW Network/Barstool Sports

RADIO: Cowboy Sports Network

SERIES RECORD: Series tied 1-1

LAST MATCHUP: Toledo won 34-31 on Sept. 8, 2012, in Laramie, Wyo.

WEBSITES: GoWyo.com, the official Wyoming athletics website; UTRockets.com, the official Toledo athletics website.

GAME NOTES: Wyoming | Toledo

ODDS: Wyoming -3.5

OVER/UNDER: 44.5 points

SP+ PROJECTION: Toledo by 7.8

FEI PROJECTION: Toledo by 1.4

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Wyoming 58.99% win probability (27.04-24.03)

In only the third meeting between programs, the Toledo Rockets and Wyoming Cowboys enter the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl with sizeable record differences. The Rockets are 11-2 after falling to Miami (Ohio) in the MAC Championship Game and losing out on the chance to play in a New Year’s Six bowl game. A 5-1 start for the Cowboys had the team rolling with predictions of a Wyoming New Year’s Six bowl game. However, the Group of Five bid became unimaginable as the Pokes finished the season 3-3. 

The announcement of Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl’s retirement following the game has become one of the commanding storylines of the Wyoming team and Arizona Bowl. After a decade at the helm of the Cowboys, Bohl’s departure allowed the program to promote defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel as the 33rd head coach of Wyoming. The game’s outcome will also determine whether Bohl concludes his career with a winning or losing record for the Cowboys.

On the opposite sideline, the Rockets will be without quarterback DeQuan Finn — after five years in the program — as he has entered the transfer portal and committed to Baylor. The absence of Finn leaves a question mark at quarterback and offensive production. Assumingly, Tucker Gleason will be under center for Toledo. 

The Rocket’s offense has demonstrated its explosiveness all season long, scoring 30 or more points in eight games. They have also averaged 426.2 yards a game through its 13 games thus far. With backup Gleason, the team’s offense will still be able to count on running back Peny Boone, the seventh-leading rusher in FBS with 1,400 yards.

In comparison, Wyoming has only managed 324.8 yards per game, which ranks 107th nationally. However, in the final two games, the Wyoming offense averaged 440.5 yards per game against Hawaii and Nevada, including 42 points in each game and holding opponents to single digits. 

Both teams also enjoy the athletes’ accomplishments, with multiple all-conference players on each team. Toledo boasts 10 All-MAC First Team players, including Finn and Boone, and 14 total players awarded. Wyoming has two All-Mountain West First Team players, offensive lineman Frank Crum and linebacker Easton Gibbs. The Pokes also had six others make the all-conference teams. 

With the Rockets and Cowboys’ all-star-caliber players, there are significant players on both sides of the ball for both sidelines. 

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Key players and pieces (and those missing)

Toledo

With Finn’s transfer to Baylor, the question is whether Gleason will produce at levels similar to Finn’s. The backup stepped in last season for two games while Finn was injured and outperformed Finn against Western Michigan. However, Gleason has had limited opportunities this season, only appearing in three blowout victories. This season, he is 14 of 21 for 199 yards and four touchdowns against Texas Southern, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan.

Having Finn under center, the offense operated using a dual-threat style of play for the quarterback. However, Gleason has only rushed the ball significantly once last season against Bowling Green. How will the transition work from a dual-threat quarterback to Gleason’s pocket presence?

Expect Toledo’s game plan to heavily emphasize the rushing attack, as it has all season long. However, Boone announced on Dec. 26 that he would enter the transfer portal. Instead, running back Jacquez Stuart, the All-MAC First Team kick returner, will be the presumed starter. Stuart finished the season with 475 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. The rushing game could falter for the Rockets as Stuart has not demonstrated the explosive runs like Boone.

The offense also lacks all-conference offensive lineman Vinny Sciury, who has announced his transfer to Texas Tech.

Defensively, the Rockets can also contain and sack the quarterback, heavily assisted by defensive tackle Judge Culpepper. On the season, Culpepper leads the team in sacks, with nine, and tackles for loss, with 10.5. The team has 35 sacks on the season, tied for 17th best in the nation.

Wyoming

Unlike previous seasons, the transfer portal has not heavily impacted the Cowboys. Thus far, the Pokes have only had four players enter the portal, with only one being a starter, cornerback Kolbey Taylor.

Instead, Wyoming enters the Arizona Bowl with nearly all talent available. This includes several players’ last game for the Cowboys, such as quarterback Andrew Peasley. In the most efficient season of his career, Peasley threw for career highs in yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, touchdown-interception ratio, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns. The quarterback also received an honorable mention to the All-Mountain West team. The Cowboys’ captain threw for a career-high 319 yards against Hawaii on only 14 completions. 

Despite only averaging 167 yards through the air, Peasley has contributed to several Wyoming victories this season, including three-touchdown games against Texas Tech, Portland State, Fresno State, Hawaii and a four-touchdown game at Nevada. 

In addition, Wyoming’s transfer running back from last year, Harrison Waylee, has given a spark to the Pokes’ rushing attack. Waylee’s average of 95 rushing yards a game is 23rd at the FBS level, and 5.8 yards per carry ranks 34th. 

Waylee introduced himself to Pokes fans with his first appearance at No. 4 Texas, where he would break a 62-yard touchdown and finish with 110 yards. He would post a season-high of 191 yards against New Mexico. Waylee only dropped under four yards a carry in two losses this season, Boise State and UNLV.

While the offense isn’t missing its regular pieces, it will be without offensive coordinator Tim Polasek as he transitions to the head coaching job at North Dakota State. 

On the other side of the ball, Gibbs leads the team in tackles and will play a critical factor in the game on Saturday. The All-Mountain West First Team linebacker plays a pivotal role on defense by stopping the run. Gibbs has forced the second most turnovers on the team — behind safety Wyett Ekeler —with two forced fumbles and an interception.

The special teams of Wyoming can undoubtedly be special. Kicker John Hoyland has had a stellar career with the Cowboys, but around halfway through the season, he found himself in his worst statistical year. Hoyland missed his first extra point of his career and was one for seven on field goals in the second half of the season. If the Arizona Bowl comes down to a field goal, will the red shoe be able to come through?

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Cowboys or Rockets?

The Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl will not be a barn-burning shootout whatsoever. With both teams taking hits on the offensive side of the ball due to the transfer portal and coaching changes, it is unlikely that either team will explode for 30 or more points. Toledo only allows about 20 points per game, while Wyoming gives up about 23, both teams within the top 50 of FBS. The Cowboys and Rockets possess solid defenses that have helped them win games. Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell — an All-American Second Teamer by AP, FWAA, AFCA and Sporting News — will be an influential factor in the passing game as he is second in the country in passes defended. 

Wyoming does not have just one player who stands out on defense but a combination of many. The all-around player Ekeler’s presence offers potential for lost yards and sacks with blitzes, pass coverage and interceptions, and stripping the ball away from carriers. Defensive back Wrook Brown leads the team in interceptions, and Devonne Harris and Braden Siders can get the quarterback as they have the most sacks on the team. 

This season was a challenge for the Cowboys defense. They have already faced three top-20 rushing yards per game backs in Jacory Croskey-Merritt (New Mexico), Jonathon Brooks (Texas) and Ashton Jeanty (Boise State). Even with the absence of Boone for Toledo, Wyoming has proven to limit the rushing attack of backs. 

In addition, the combination of defensive proficiency and offensive efficiency has allowed the Cowboys to be up 10 in the turnover margin this season. Compared to Toledo at two below even, it is more likely to see a player in brown and gold get a takeaway. 

As a wild prediction, with a turnover for one of the teams, there will be a defensive score in this bowl game. Whether it is a pick-six or a scoop and score, a tight game will be decided by a defensive touchdown. Based on the turnover margin and lack of turnovers by the Wyoming offense, a particular team is more likely to be the one to get it.

The bowl game could also become the staple for Bohl’s tenure at Wyoming. Currently sitting at 60-60 in his career for the Cowboys, a victory gives him a winning record, while a loss ends his career in poor taste. This game means more for Bohl, and while he has always preached the mantra of taking a season game by game, his final game will feel better with a win. The Pokes know it is his final game and will play with more intensity and desire to win a bowl for Bohl. In a storybook ending for the season, some players’ careers and Bohl, the game will be close but end in a Wyoming victory.

Wyoming 23 – Toledo 20

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EasyPost Hawaii Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

San Jose State and Coastal Carolina will battle on the islands to close out 2023. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

 

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The San Jose State Spartans and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will battle on the islands to close out 2023. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Who will gift themselves a pre-Christmas W?

EASYPOST HAWAII BOWL: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-5, 5-3 Sun Belt) vs. San Jose State Spartans (7-5, 6-2 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 23 — 7:30 PM PT/8:30 PM MT

WHERE: Clarence T.C. Ching Complex; Honolulu, HI

WEATHER: Isolated showers and breezy, low of 73 degrees

TV: ESPN

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ESPN, by following this link.

RADIO: The Coastal Carolina broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Chanticleer Sports Radio Network, including flagship 99.5 FM (WRNN) in Myrtle Beach. The San Jose State broadcast can be found in and around San Jose on 860 AM (KTRB).

SERIES RECORD: This is the first meeting between Coastal Carolina and San Jose State.

LAST GAME: Coastal Carolina lost to James Madison at home, 56-14, while San Jose State defeated UNLV on the road, 37-31.

WEBSITES: GoCCUSports.com, the official Coastal Carolina athletics website | SJSUSpartans.com, the official San Jose State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Coastal Carolina | San Jose State

ODDS: San Jose State -9.5

SP+ PROJECTION: San Jose State by 1.0

FEI PROJECTION: San Jose State by 6.5

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: San Jose State 64.50% win probability (31.51-26.58)

As bowl season picks up in earnest, the Saturday nightcap will be the Hawaii Bowl, featuring two teams at 7-5, albeit with very different credentials: San Jose State, winners of their last six, and Coastal Carolina, who lost their last two. Both the Spartans and the Chanticleers will look to continue their offensive prowess, led by Chevan Cordeiro and Ethan Vasko, respectively. (Grayson McCall has since transferred to N.C. State.)

Both teams come in averaging more than 400 yards per game, and one would expect the offensive fireworks to continue one more time. The transfer portal has impacted both teams for this game, but at their heart these two teams are driven by offenses that will look to attack, early and often.

The game will also represent a homecoming of sorts for Chevan Cordeiro, having been raised in Hawaii and starting his collegiate career at the University of Hawaii.

Here’s how the Chanticleers and Spartans can win the 2023 Hawaii Bowl.

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Three Keys to a Coastal Carolina Victory

1. Protect Ethan Vasko.

Grayson McCall has moved on to N.C. State and Vasko is named the starter for this game. He will need time to throw and settle in early for the Chanticleers to have a shot in this game.

2. Establish the running game.

A running game will take a lot of pressure off Vasko and allow the game to play at a slower pace, all while controlling time of possession.

3. Prepare a trick play (or two)

An onside kick, flea flicker, something that breaks up the norm could go a long way in a closely-contested game like this

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Three Keys to a San Jose State Victory

1. Establish the running game.

Kairee Robinson and Quali Conley are among the leaders in the conference, and as with Coastal Carolina, the running game can control time of possession will keep the Chanticleers offense on the sidelines.

2. Establish a viable tight end in the offense.

Dominick Mazzotti has entered the transfer portal and provided a reliable receiver for Cordeiro in many a situation. Cordeiro will need to rely on a new tight end to take the pressure off his wide receivers.

3. Establish the defensive line pressure

The Spartans’ defense has proven to be opportunistic, a bend-but-not-break type, especially for its front seven. If San Jose State can get in the Chanticleers’ backfield and disrupt, that can prove to be effective as well.

Prediction

Based on the statistics, expect a high-scoring affair, with both offenses eager to finish their seasons on a high note. The Spartans’ running game should be the difference maker, however, controlling time of possession and limiting the Chanticleer offense time on the field.

San Jose State 37, Coastal Carolina 33

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Air Force ends losing streak with Armed Forces Bowl victory over James Madison

The Falcons rushed for 351 yards as a team and held the ball for more than 37 minutes, never letting James Madison get enough momentum.

Air Force ended its 2023 regular season on a four-game losing streak, but the Falcons managed to find a silver lining with a 31-21 victory over James Madison in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday.

The Dukes won 11 of their 12 regular-season games, but James Madison had no answers for Air Force fullback Emmanuel Michel.

The senior had the best game of his collegiate career against James Madison, with 203 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries. He broke off a 54-yard dash on the Falcon’s first play from scrimmage, pushing his way into the end zone a few plays later for the game’s first score.

Michel forced his way into the end zone from one yard out for a second time in the middle of the second quarter, extending Air Force’s lead to 14-7.

The Falcons’ running game in general dominated the game, as Air Force ran for 351 yards as a team and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. James Madison’s inability to slow down the ground game also led to a severe imbalance in time of possession, with Air Force holding the ball for more than 37 minutes.

The slow burn was on full display in the second half with both teams combining for seven possessions. Air Force scored 10 points, and James Madison never had enough chances with the ball to come back despite only punting once after halftime.

Here are the best photos from Air Force’s win.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Air Force Falcons look to fly high once more in 2023 and take down the James Madison Dukes. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Air Force Falcons look to fly high once more in 2023 and take down the James Madison Dukes. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

The cadets hope to extend a five-game bowl winning streak.

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL: James Madison Dukes (11-1, 7-1 Sun Belt) vs. Air Force Falcons (8-4, 5-3 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 23 — 1:30 PM MT/12:30 PM PT

WHERE: Amon G. Carter Stadium; Fort Worth, TX

WEATHER: Cloudy with a chance of showers, high of 67 degrees

TV: ABC

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ABC, by following this link.

RADIO: The James Madison broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Morris Insurance and Financial Services Broadcast Network, including flagship 550 AM and 92.1 FM (WSVA) in Harrisonburg. The Air Force broadcast can be found on 740 AM (KVOR) in Colorado Springs and 104.3 FM The Fan in Denver.

SERIES RECORD: This is the first meeting between James Madison and Air Force.

LAST GAME: James Madison defeated Coastal Carolina on the road, 56-14, while Air Force lost to Boise State on the road, 27-19.

WEBSITES: JMUSports.com, the official James Madison athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): James Madison | Air Force

ODDS: James Madison -1

SP+ PROJECTION: James Madison by 8.1

FEI PROJECTION: James Madison by 6.9

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: James Madison 58.99% win probability (28.29-21.61)

Darlings of the Group of Five for much of the 2023 season, James Madison, will try and earn their first Bowl win. Standing in the way of their potential 12th win and inaugural Bowl victory are the Air Force Fightin’ Falcons.

It’s truly been an impressive season for JMU, who just entered the FBS. Despite some frankly ridiculous NCAA policies which prevented them from playing for a Conference Championship in the Sun Belt (as a deemed probation year at the FBS level), which they were far and away the top team of, they still find themselves at the doorstep of a season complete with Bowl hardware and national ranking. Not too bad for a team that was competing at the FCS level just one year ago.

Air Force on the other hand was right up there with the Dukes atop the class of the Group of Five programs, right until the calendar turned to November. Even since that devastating loss to Army, which was their first of the season after starting 8-0, they have yet to win a game.

In fact, it’s fair to say the Air Force team that played the last four games of the season hardly resembled that which began the season with an eight-game surge. There are a number of reasons that wins have eluded the Falcons, many of which remain as they face off against a very formidable opponent in Fort Worth, Texas. But don’t assume JMU will just roll the Falcon’s as clear favorites in this matchup. Air Force is not going to be like any other team the Dukes have faced this year. And just ask their last four Bowl opponents what it’s like playing Air Force in December; Baylor, Louisville, Wazzu and South Alabama provide a cautionary tale.

Here’s how the Dukes and Falcons can find a path to victory to finish 2023.

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Three Keys to a James Madison Victory

1. Tackles For Loss

Nothing derails an Air Force drive quite like Tackles for Loss (TFL’s). The Falcon offense is designed for modest but consistent against, down after down. Coincidentally, the Air Force defense also thrived on this philosophy, because when their offense is sustaining long clock grinding drives, it limits possessions and opportunities for the opposition.

TFL’s happen to be the Dukes specialty though. No one has collected more tackles behind the line of scrimmage than JMU. They’ve gathered 45 sacks on the season as part of that collection. If they can carry that play behind the Air Force line of scrimmage, it will be a very long day for an offense that has had their share of struggles lately.

2. Splash Plays

It’s no secret that JMU likes to chuck the ball around, and their transfer quarterback-to-be, Jordan McLoud, is quite good at it. Stop me if you heard this one before, but Air Force is going to have their hands full with another talented transfer portal player.

McCloud threw 32 touchdowns this year, and his two favorite targets Reggie Brown and Elijah Sarratt both averaged over 80 receiving yards per game. Brown in particular averaged 19.8 yards per catch. Those are Jalen Robinette numbers for you throwback enthusiasts.

This is critical to point out because during the Falcon’s late season nose dive, they were surrendering far too many big plays. Granted, they were often times against All-American players such as Ricky White and Ashton Jeanty, but their opponent on Saturday is every bit as capable of gashing them for large chunks of yardage.

3. Early Lead

Similar to early down victories mentioned in the first key, forcing an Air Force offense that has become inconsistent to play from behind could help pave the path to victory. Even if Zac Larrier is able to go for the Falcons, the offense hasn’t shown the kind of punch their opponents have, in particular with an ability to get quick strike scores. Falling behind early would be a big problem against what’s been a very stingy defense. The fact that the Bolts have yet to win a game when entering the 3rd quarter behind is evidence this should be a concern.

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Three Keys to an Air Force Victory

1. Early Down Success 

The ability to move the ball on early down sets the tone for the entire Air Force gameplan. Not just the offense.

Early down success for this offense is a steady appetite of three or four yard gains. Three yards at a clip isn’t exactly eye popping in today’s game, but it’s exactly what this team feeds on. It has such a cumulative effect by building momentum, establishing confidence, wearing out the defense, and limiting the opposition’s offensive possessions.

I would take it a step further and say that early down success has to lead to early game points. As mentioned earlier, they are going to need touchdowns to beat James Madison. To quote the immortal John Kreese “Strike First. Strike Hard. No Mercy.”. Air Force is 5-0 when scoring first this season.

2. Protect the Ball

Awaiting the Falcons is a JMU team that is one of the best nationally in turnover margin, at +.75. And it’s no coincidence that the Air Force late season collapse coincides with a significant increase in turnovers.

To date, Air Force has put the ball on the ground 21 times, losing 11 of those fumbles. Even if recovered, those fumbles are usually resulting in significant damage to their drives by lost yardage. And the Dukes are well versed at helping other teams forfeit possessions, forcing 21 turnovers on the season.

3. Details

The thing Air Force prides itself on is being detail oriented. I mean how else could a team that is clearly disadvantaged when it comes to recruiting and player development be so successful if they don’t find other ways to get an edge.

The offensive scheme they run is based on timing, precision, and chemistry. That leaks into all three phases of their game. It’s in part why a team that has gone four deep at cornerback and two to three deep all over the field, including quarterback, are still able to reel off an eight-win season.

You can only play who is healthy and available, and one of the things they do better than anyone is prepare the parts so they are interchangeable (to an extent) and can be plugged in to keep the machine humming.

Blown coverage, poor mesh point on a handoff, or missed blocks can be game changers on Saturday. The details matter. Executing at an elite level will be required to win this game.

Prediction

It would be lazy to just point to the last month of Air Force football as reason to pack it in on the season. But the reality is there were a lot of warts revealed on a team that looked really good climbing up to 17th in the AP Polls at one point. That seems like a lifetime ago quite honestly.

Meanwhile, James Madison has kept piling on victories. They enter this game with the nation’s most stout run defense, giving up just 2 yards per carry, and around 60 total rush yards per game. Anything close to that kind of success against Air Force will not just guarantee victory, but likely a not-so competitive game.

What I would suggest though, look at the schedules of these two teams and the scores. As bad as losses to Army and Hawai’i looked, those two defeats at the hands of the Mountain West Championship teams, Boise State and UNLV aren’t quite so bad. I’m not sure JMU would have fared any better playing either team at the time Air Force did.

I expect both teams to have their hands full with the particular niche’ each’s opponent presents. The way the Dukes sling the ball all over the field poses a big problem in my opinion. And that is no indictment on the Air Force secondary that features the best defensive back in the country, Trey Taylor. JMU proved week in and week out, they can execute a passing scheme at an elite level.

I expect the Air Force offense to be the deciding factor in this game. There are so many unknowns with injury entering this game, it really can change the complexion of things. Whether it’s Larrier, Jensen Jones or John Busha, they need to play a clean game and rely on that veteran ‘Diesel’ offensive line.

The defense will step up and make plays through the game as they did all season, But if they expect to lean on them to keep this a single digit game to win, that is going to result in a disappointing trip home from the Lone Star State.

There are a lot of very proud players suiting up for the last time on both sidelines. For Air Force, it’s senior laden with players who elected and fulfilled their four plus year commitment to the United States Air Force Academy and see the mission through with their teammates. Combine that with the edge a veteran head coach like Troy Calhoun gives you, versus JMU who is breaking in the new head-man as Frank Cignetti heads to middle-America, and I actually expect an Air Force win.

The 8-0 Air Force team that started the year is still in that locker room and on that sideline. Even if impacted by health, it’s a team that’s better than many. That includes an 11-1 James Madison Dukes team.

Air Force 27, James Madison 24

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Utah State Aggies hope to end a rollercoaster year with a win against Georgia State Panthers. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Utah State Aggies hope to end a rollercoaster year with a win against Georgia State Panthers. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Who will be more motivated to chase one last W?

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL: Georgia State Panthers (6-6, 4-4 Sun Belt) vs. Utah State Aggies (6-6, 4-4 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 23 — 1:30 PM MT/12:30 PM PT

WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, ID

WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 38 degrees

TV: ESPN

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ESPN, by following this link.

RADIO: The Georgia State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Georgia State Radio Network, including flagship 88.5 FM (WRAS) in Atlanta. The Utah State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 1280 The Zone (KZNS) in Salt Lake City.

SERIES RECORD: This is the first meeting between Georgia State and Utah State.

LAST GAME: Georgia State lost on the road to Old Dominion, 25-24, while Utah State defeated New Mexico on the road in double overtime, 44-41.

WEBSITES: GeorgiaStateSports.com, the official Georgia State athletics website | UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Georgia State | Utah State

ODDS: Utah State -2.5

SP+ PROJECTION: Utah State by 0.8

FEI PROJECTION: Utah State by 1.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Utah State 50.72% win probability (33.11-32.87)

The Utah State Aggies are bowling for the third straight season under head coach Blake Anderson, but they’ll hope to avoid a repeat of last year’s disappointing postseason performance against the Georgia State Panthers in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

For their part, the Panthers are mired in a slump and head into the game without their top offensive weapon, but you never know what might happen when Spuddy Buddy is involved.

Here’s how the Panthers and Aggies can finish their year with a win.

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Three Keys to a Georgia State Victory

1. Don’t abandon the running game now.

The Panthers boasted one of the Sun Belt’s best running backs throughout the regular season, but first-team all-conference star Marcus Carroll has already bolted to Missouri through the transfer portal and what remains at the position didn’t see a ton of action throughout 2023. The team’s listed starter, Freddie Brock, was a one-time starter at FCS Maine but only had six carries in three games for Georgia State in 2023.

GSU may want to see what he and true freshman Jaylen Carter can do, anyway, since Utah State got pushed hard in the trenches over the last two weeks of the regular season. Both Boise State and New Mexico averaged over seven yards per carry, but the Aggies have just been tested on the ground more frequently than anyone else in the Mountain West, period, seeing an average of 41.6 rushing attempts per game and allowing 4.79 YPC.

2. Make the Aggies offense pay for potential mistakes.

It’s no secret that Utah State has struggled with protecting the football for most of the season, evidenced by the 24 giveaways that are the second-most among Mountain West offenses. It remains to be seen, however, if that will change with Levi Williams under center for the second straight game, but they had just one in the regular season finale against New Mexico.

If GSU is going to put themselves in a position to score an upset, though, they’re going to have to figure out how to keep close tabs on USU’s playmakers. On the one hand, the Panthers defended just 38 passes in 12 regular season games, the fewest in the Sun Belt; on the other hand, they also had rotten fumble luck and recovered just six of 17 balls to hit the turf. When the opportunity arises to flip a field, the Georgia State defense can’t afford to let them slip away.

3. Be the more disciplined team.

Another non-secret is that penalties have frustrated Utah State’s hopes this year just as much as their erratic play on offense. Only four FBS teams had more than the 7.8 penalties per game that the Aggies drew in 2023, and only New Mexico racked up more than USU’s 74.3 penalty yards per game.

Assuming both teams play somewhere close to their average, this is an area where Georgia State could benefit from favorable field position simply by avoiding flags. In the regular season, the Panthers tallied six on average for 53.4 yards per contest.

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Three Keys to a Utah State Victory

1. Let Jalen Royals do his thing.

Among Utah State’s triumvirate of pass-catching threats, Royals’s breakout campaign could spell trouble for a shaky Georgia State defense. According to Pro Football Focus, Royals had an average depth of target of 13.0 yards in the regular season and posted both a 72.7% contested catch rate and just four drops on 94 total targets.

The Panthers, meanwhile, struggled mightily against opposing quarterbacks down the stretch, allowing a 68.3% completion rate, 9.9 yards per attempt, and 14 touchdowns in four November games. In other words, should the junior from Powder Springs, Georgia finish as the game’s offensive MVP, don’t be shocked.

2. Keep Darren Grainger contained.

The Georgia State quarterback will finish his collegiate career as one of the most prolific playmakers in program history, and he’ll provide a test for a Utah State defense that has already seen several mobile signal-callers throughout the season. Grainger might be singular, though, in that he led all Sun Belt quarterbacks with 625 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in addition to completing 67% of his throws at seven yards per attempt.

It may be telling that Grainger hasn’t been as impactful with his legs during the team’s current five-game losing streak, averaging 4.59 yards per carry (before adjusting for sacks). If the MJ Tafisi-led front seven can hold that line, that could bode well for their hopes.

3. Let Levi Williams cook.

You may recall that the last time Williams played in the Potato Bowl, two years ago, he put up video game numbers for Wyoming in a rout of Kent State. That propensity for major damage with his arm and his legs popped again in the last game of this regular season, when he ran for 153 yards and threw for 198 against the Lobos, accounting for five total touchdowns.

Given that he’s soon to prepare for Navy SEAL training, why not give him one more opportunity to do heavy lifting on both fronts? According to CollegeFootballData.com, Georgia State has posted a 20% defensive stuff rate but the 6-foot-5 and 230-pound Williams is a big target to bring down consistently over four quarters. Enabling him to be a threat alongside Robert Briggs, Rahsul Faison, and Davon Booth will only give the Panthers one more thing to worry about.

Prediction

As wildly uneven as the Aggies could be this year, they haven’t had the same kind of struggles that the Panthers have faced and they certainly enter the bowl game much more intact. While it seems safe to bet the over, at least, Utah State should have the offensive firepower to win this one handily.

Utah State 34, Georgia State 21

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Fresno State bowls over New Mexico State in commanding New Mexico Bowl win

The Bulldogs defeated the Aggies in their home state with 17 unanswered points to end the game behind a brilliant game from quarterback Mikey Keene.

New Mexico State might have been playing in its own state, but Fresno State looked right at home in its 37-10 victory in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl.

The Bulldogs, coached by linebackers coach Tim Skipper as head coach Jeff Tedford deals with personal health concerns, jumped out to a 10-0 lead after the opening quarter and never looked back.

Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene delivered one of the best games in the early bowl season. He threw two first-half touchdowns, first a 26-yard score to Josiah Freeman in the opening quarter before he connected with Jaelen Gill for a 23-yard touchdown in the second quarter.

Keene ended the day with 31 completions on 39 passes for 380 yards and three touchdowns. Seven different Bulldogs players caught at least three passes. He even ran for a score, making him responsible for all four Fresno State touchdowns.

The game looked closer when the final quarter began, with Fresno State’s lead only 20-10, but the Bulldogs scored 17 unanswered points to end the game with an emphatic victory.

Here are the best images from Fresno State’s victory.

Starco Brands LA Bowl Hosted By Gronk: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Mountain West will look to win its third straight LA Bowl as Boise State takes on UCLA. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Starco Brands LA Bowl Hosted By Gronk: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Mountain West will look to win its third straight LA Bowl as Boise State takes on UCLA. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Will the Broncos leave the City of Angels with their second straight bowl win?

STARCO BRANDS LA BOWL HOSTED BY GRONK: UCLA Bruins (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) vs. Boise State Broncos (8-5, 6-2 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 16 — 4:30 PM PT/5:30 PM MT

WHERE: SoFi Stadium; Inglewood, CA

WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 76 degrees (note: game indoors)

TV: ABC

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ABC, by following this link.

RADIO: The UCLA broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the UCLA Sports Network, including flagship 570 AM (KLAC) in Los Angeles. The Boise State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Bronco Radio Network, including flagship KBOI (670 AM and 93.1 FM) in Boise.

SERIES RECORD: UCLA leads the all-time series, 1-0. In the lone previous meeting on September 4, 1999, the Bruins defeated the Broncos, 38-7, in Pasadena.

LAST GAME: Boise State defeated UNLV on the road in the Mountain West football championship game, 44-20, while UCLA lost to Cal at home, 33-7.

WEBSITES: UCLABruins.com, the official UCLA athletics website | BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): UCLA | Boise State

ODDS: UCLA -4

SP+ PROJECTION: UCLA by 0.5

FEI PROJECTION: UCLA by 1.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UCLA 80.46% win probability (31.93-20.55)

The second Mountain West game of the opening weekend of bowl games pairs the UCLA Bruins against the Boise State Broncos in Los Angeles on Saturday evening.

The Broncos have the opportunity to end the Bruins era in the PAC-12 with a loss and accomplish their final remaining season goal of winning a bowl game. This won’t be an easy task as UCLA is a talented team playing a virtual home game as SoFi Stadium is actually closer to campus than Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena.

Here’s how newly promoted head coach Spencer Danielson and the Broncos can get it done on Saturday against UCLA, as well as how the Bruins can handle business against Boise State.

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Three Keys to a UCLA Victory

1. Make sure the Murphy twins introduce themselves (rudely) to Boise State’s new quarterback.

Though star defensive end Laiatu Latu won’t take the field in the game, the Bruins have plenty of defenders who should be in a position to test Boise State freshman CJ Tiller, one of the team’s top 2023 recruits and the likely starter at quarterback for the bowl. After all, this is still a front seven that generated a 14.6% havoc rate in the regular season.

Chief among the remaining cohort are the Murphys, Grayson and Gabriel, who have combined for 11 sacks, 22.5 tackles for loss, and (per PFF) 63 quarterback hurries. How often they can get the upper hand against Broncos offensive tackles Kage Casey and Cade Beresford, who have given up 36 combined hurries but just four sacks, will be a critical factor for the Bruins.

2. Don’t waste red zone trips.

UCLA has often betrayed themselves inside the opponents’ 20-yard line this fall, ending the regular season by converting just 61.8% of their 55 red zone opportunities into points, the worst rate in the country. That problem has been magnified throughout the team’s recent slide, too, because the Bruins scored only seven touchdowns on 19 red zone tries in November.

As Action Network’s Brett McMurphy recently noted, Boise State has scored at least 30 points in ten of their last 11 games, so UCLA cannot afford to let chances fall by the wayside.

3. Re-establish the running game.

While the running back duo of Carson Steele and T.J. Harden both averaged over five yards per carry throughout the regular season, both have experienced a dip in production in recent weeks: Steele managed just 4.02 YPC in November while Harden’s 5.33 YPC average in that stretch is buoyed by a big performance in the team’s win over USC.

Turning that around against a Broncos defense that shut down some of the Mountain West’s most potent running games in the second half could be easier said than done, but UCLA probably can’t afford to put the game entirely in the hands of quarterback Ethan Garbers. Boise State hasn’t often been beaten in the trenches this fall, but they have given up an average of 4.79 YPC in their five losses (compared to 3.38 in eight wins).

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Three Keys to a Boise State Victory

1. Get ahead of the chains with an effective run game.

Boise State got great news recently when star running back Ashton Jeanty announced he will return to The Blue for another year. Jeanty and fellow back George Holani have teamed up to form one of the most effective backfield tandems in the FBS, combining for nearly 2,600 yards from scrimmage and 24 touchdowns. In the Mountain West championship game, the Broncos ran the ball 51 times for 301 yards, good for 5.9 yards per carry, and three touchdowns. The offensive line and offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan also had one of their best outings of the year.

Two major challenges stand in the way of the Broncos accomplishing this key. The first is the departure of dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green who recently entered the transfer portal and announced his commitment to Arkansas. The second is the fact that they are facing the third-ranked rushing defense in the FBS, though it is not quite as complete personnel-wise as it was throughout the regular season.

2. Reduce the pressure on CJ Tiller.

Head coach Spencer Danielson announced true freshman quarterback CJ Tiller will get the start under center with Green’s departure. Tiller has played just two snaps thus far in his college career and has zero pass attempts. Hamdan’s gameplan will be paramount in allowing CJ to get comfortable in his elevated role.

The Broncos’ stout run game outlined above will be key to getting Tiller off to a good start. Expect the talented freshman to utilize play action to slow down the Bruins’ pass rush and allow him time to process his reads and hit targets downfield. The recent announcement by UCLA star defender Laiatu Latu that he will forgo the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft should certainly help the true freshman feel more secure in the pocket on Saturday.

3. Contain UCLA’s athleticism.

It may be a tiresome narrative, but the Bruins have excellent athleticism, as you would expect from a P5 program despite their 7-5 record. Both contests against Power 5 competition this season showed that even with their high-level Mountain West recruiting, there is still a gap between the Broncos and P5 talent at some positions. Some of the issues likely arose from young players on the defense learning on the job and thus not feeling confident enough to play fast and free. It can also be reasoned that their contest against the University of Washington could be thrown out, as they have shown themselves to be above the rest of the FBS in ability, as they are slated to take on Texas in the College Football Playoff Semifinal.

Boise State defensive backs have been especially susceptible to athletic wide receivers running vertical routes. While the safeties and corners have shown marked improvement throughout the season, they still seem to have a play or two per game where they allow a receiver behind them. While the Bruins don’t have the most prolific passing attack, they will undoubtedly take shots deep to test this secondary.

Prediction

While the Broncos have made seemingly countless trips to the desert for the Las Vegas Bowl, the previous bowl destination for the Mountain West champion, this is their first trip to the relatively new LA Bowl. Look for Danielson to once again inspire the team to play for their seniors and do just enough to leave Los Angeles with a victory, behind a solid ground game and a sound defensive effort complete with a couple of turnovers.

Boise State 30, UCLA 24

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Hawaii Bowl: First Look At The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

San Jose State will end its season against a Sun Belt opponent that’s dealt with plenty of its own adversity this year.

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Hawaii Bowl: First Look At The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

San Jose State will end its season against a Sun Belt opponent that’s dealt with plenty of its own adversity this year.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire

The Spartans face a team in flux.

The San Jose State Spartans will play in their third bowl game in four seasons when they face the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in this year’s Easypost Hawaii Bowl. For their part, Coastal is also in a bowl game for the fourth straight year, but the vibes around both teams might be, for the moment, significantly different.

While SJSU is in the midst of a six-game winning streak, their opponent is in the midst of grappling with regression from the heights they reached just two seasons ago. The pressure is on, then, for Coastal Carolina to head into the off-season with some momentum behind the unavoidable transition to a new chapter.

Here’s what San Jose State fans need to know about the Chanticleers.

2023 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers — Team Profile

Conference: Sun Belt

2023 Record: 7-5 (5-3 Sun Belt)

SP+ ranking: 76th

FEI ranking: 86th

Sagarin rating: 86th

Head coach: Tim Beck (first year)

2023 in a nutshell: This fall, the “Chants” became some of the latest proof that things can change quickly in college football. Just two years removed from back-to-back 11-win campaigns, Coastal Carolina began 2-3, dropping their first two conference games, before rallying to win five games in a row. That turnaround came at a price, however, as star quarterback Grayson McCall was lost for the season to a head injury in October.

It was also shortlived since the Chanticleers ended the regular season with back-to-back losses to Army and James Madison. Since then, McCall has led a substantial exodus of talent to the transfer portal, meaning the CCU squad that takes the field in Hawaii will look different from the one that fought their way to seven wins in the rough-and-tumble Sun Belt.

Best wins: vs. Jacksonville State (8-4), at Appalachian State (8-5), at Old Dominion (6-6)

Key Players

Sam Pinckney, WR

After spending four seasons at Georgia State, Pinckney’s two seasons in Myrtle Beach have been productive enough to rewrite the record books. After leading Coastal with 64 catches, 904 yards, and seven touchdowns in 2023, the Greenwood, South Carolina native now holds the Sun Belt record for career receiving yards and established a new NCAA benchmark with a 57-game streak of at least one reception.

Clayton Isbell, S

A former freshman All-American at FCS Illinois State, Isbell transferred to Coastal after a one-year stint at Utah and landed on the third-team all-Sun Belt defense in 2023. According to Pro Football Focus, the super senior played a total of 738 snaps and made 34 stops among 86 total tackles, all of which were the most of any Chanticleers defender. He also chipped in with 4.5 tackles for loss, five passes defended, and four interceptions, so don’t be shocked if Isbell’s name comes up early and often since he could be just about anywhere.

Will McDonald, G

A two-year starter at left guard, McDonald hardly missed a snap for the Chanticleers this year and played 781 in all, allowing only one quarterback sack and eight total hurries. For that, he was named a member of the Sun Belt’s third-team all-conference offense, so Spartans defenders may find it tough to make much headway in the interior.

Micheal Mason, DL

Few athletes at any level play well enough to make four straight all-conference teams, but that’s exactly what Mason did at Wofford in the FCS’s Southern Conference from 2019 to 2022. After becoming the first Terrier ever to accomplish that feat, he transferred to CCU to play his super senior season with the Chanticleers, so while he only merited an honorable mention from the Sun Belt in 2023, Mason did lead the team with six sacks and nine tackles for loss.

Matthew McDoom, CB

The lone sophomore starter on a veteran-heavy defense, McDoom had a quality campaign after primarily contributing on special teams last year. Per PFF, he held opposing receivers to a 50% catch rate when targeted and gave up 11.6 yards per reception, making 24 total tackles while tying for the team lead with six passes defended.

Overview:

Offense

After two high-flying seasons as a top-ten offense in 2020 and 2021, the Chanticleers have regressed to the mean over the last two years and finished the regular season as almost exactly an average unit, ranking 66th in points per drive (2.19) despite finishing 29th in available yards percentage earned per drive (54.0%). One big reason for this was a season-long struggle to finish drives: Coastal has converted 74.51% of their red zone opportunities into points (119th in FBS), and just 45.1% of those trips resulted in a touchdown (130th).

Losing McCall almost certainly had an impact, but even he wasn’t as mistake-free as he’d been throughout the program’s peak: He averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, but that was the lowest YPA of his collegiate career. McCall also threw six interceptions in 224 attempts, a 2.7% rate that, believe it or not, was two-and-a-half times higher than what he posted from 2020 to 2022. With he and backup Jarrett Guest gone through the transfer portal, starting quarterback duties will fall to redshirt freshman Ethan Vasko, who has started three of the last five games and averaged 271.7 yards of total offense per game in November.

He won’t be the only relatively new face in the mix for the Chants on offense, though, since running back CJ Beasley and wide receiver Jared Brown, the Sun Belt’s freshman of the year in 2022, are both gone, as well. Braydon Bennett and Reese White have been the nominal starters at running back most of the year, but youngsters Max Balthazar and Ja’Vin Simpkins could see more reps in Beasley’s absence.

The offensive line is relatively stable, at least, with the same group of five starting the final six games of the regular season. McDonald and tackles Nick Del Grande and Zovon Lindsey headline a unit that held up well in pass protection, allowing just 16 sacks in 12 games.

As for replacing Brown, Coastal has a handful of intriguing options to pull attention away from Pinckney in the passing game. Tight end Kendall Karr (21 catches, 232 yards, four touchdowns) and wide receivers Jameson Tucker (19-395-3) and Kyre Duplessis (14-223-1) could all factor in with a few targets against the Spartans secondary.

Defense

Much like their offensive counterparts, the best descriptor for the Coastal defense in 2023 might just be “fine”. They allowed opponents to earn 49% of available yards per drive on average (78th in FBS) and gave up 2.23 points per drive (67th), propelled in part by 21 takeaways but equally hindered by an overall lack of disruption that’s evidenced by a 15.3% defensive havoc rate. Just one player, Mason, managed more than five tackles for loss in the regular season, which might be a problem against a San Jose State running game that’s surged as the year has progressed.

Also like the CCU offense, the ranks may be thinned by the transfer portal here, too, with Braylon Ryan and JT Killen the most noteworthy names. It’s still a veteran-heavy group at every level, though: On the defensive line, Will Whitson started the last seven games and contributed five TFLs and three sacks while Kennedy Roberts has appeared in 59 games dating back to 2019. Nickelback Juan Powell transferred in after four year at East Carolina and chipped in five TFLs and six pass breakups. Isbell and cornerback Keonte Lusk (five passes defended, three interceptions) anchor a secondary that features four different players who have picked off at least two passes in 2023.

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