Tag: Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy

Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Air Force

Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Air Force The NCAA 14 Video Game Predicts Air Force over UNLV 16-13 Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA …

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Air Force

The NCAA 14 Video Game Predicts Air Force over UNLV 16-13

Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire

For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports NCAA14, with updated 2024 rosters. There is no user impact, just a computer simulation of the given teams.

Last week our simulation favored Wyoming over UNLV by a score of 31-14. As you should know by now, things certainly didn’t play out that way on the field, as the Rebels nearly flipped that score, hammering the Pokes 34-14.

This weeks featured game reflects the matchup with the most consequence in the Mountain West Conference in week 12, as UNLV visits Colorado Springs, to play Air Force.

Contrary to reality of late, our simulation favored the Falcons, beating UNLV 16-13. The only thing as surprising as the score favoring Air Force would be the statistics behind it. The Reb’s held Air Force under 100 yards rushing for the game, while grinding out for 119 on the ground of their own. The thing more surprising here was Jensen Jones throwing for over 200 yards.

Keeping with the theme of turnovers, the Falcons couldn’t catch a break even in the sim as they coughed the ball up twice. Despite winning the turnover battle 2-0 and holding the Falcons to just over 90 yards rushing, UNLV still couldn’t win this game. The most notable reason would have to be the opposing defense.

I don’t know if this will be reflective of the result or even close on the scoreboard for Saturday’s game, but you have to believe with those stat lines we are going to be looking at a pretty emphatic victory for the Rebels.

When these two teams meet on the field Saturday, the likelihood of a spot in the Mountain West Championship game is at stake. Hopefully we have as competitive game as our simulation suggests.

If you have a strong opinion on who should be our featured simulation next week, let us hear about it @MWCwire. 

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Air Force vs. UNLV: How the Falcons can beat UNLV

Air Force vs. UNLV: How the Falcons can beat UNLV The Rebels are Coming to the Springs Full of Confidence Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can the Falcons regain form against UNLV with a spot in the Conference Championship on the line? WEEK 12: Air …

Air Force vs. UNLV: How the Falcons can beat UNLV

The Rebels are Coming to the Springs Full of Confidence

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can the Falcons regain form against UNLV with a spot in the Conference Championship on the line?

WEEK 12: Air Force Falcons 8-2 (5-1) vs. University of Nevada Las Vegas Rebels 8-2 (5-1)

WHEN: Saturday, November 18th — 1:30 P.M. MT/ 12:30 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Sunshine and some clouds. High 62F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Carter Blackburn (play-by-play), Randy Cross (analyst)

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 17-6

WEBSITES: UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): UNLV | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 7.2

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 4.1

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has a 79.31% win probability (31.96- 21.13)

It’s hard to believe we have arrived at Senior night already, as many Falcon players will take the field in front of their home crowd for the last time in their careers on Saturday. And what a special senior class this is, winning 31 games against just 11 losses in their tenure to date. The stakes for this team could not be any higher in their final game at Falcon Stadium in 2023.

Despite two absolute clunkers in as many weeks against Hawai’i and Army, the Falcons are still in the driver’s seat for a place in the Mountain West Conference Championship game in December thanks to their historic 8-0 start to the season. Though much has changed since those first eight games.

The Air Force list of injuries (should they “officially” share it) would be very lengthy. In fact, half of its’ starting roster would have been impacted by injury at this point, really testing their depth and mettle. Noone is going to feel sorry for the Falcons though, especially not the UNLV Rebels who are trying to put together a historic season of their own.

These are not your Rebels of old. Barry Odom has done a fantastic job turning what’s been a basement dweller into a Bonafide Conference Contender in his first season. Troy Calhoun on the other hand is trying to rally his team, injury ravaged as it is, and capture their first Conference Championship.

A third loss in a row would significantly complicate those aspirations for the Falcons. If they want to keep those hopes alive, they need to play much better in every aspect of the game against one of, if not the top team in the Conference.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN BEAT UNLV

While it’s Air Force that usually imposes their will with a dominant ground attack, it’s the Rebels who are featuring a deep rushing attack of their own with Vincent Davis, Ja’Den Thomas, and Donavyn Lester all amassing more than 400 yards on the ground this year. The quarterback is also very much a threat on the ground, they need to account for Jayden Maiava too. As a team, they are averaging just under 200 yards per game on the ground.

The Falcons are going to need to keep that ground game in check if they want to win this game. If they aren’t able to mitigate damage on the ground, it could open up a host of problems as arguably the most dangerous player in the Conference, Ricky White looms on the outside.

Despite injuries to the defensive line and linebacker (spur), they still have the personnel to do it; especially between that core of Alec Mock, Jonathan Youngblood and Peyton Zdroik. These guys are going to be key in trying to keep UNLV unbalanced on offense.

Speaking of the run game, Air Force finds themselves in unfamiliar territory, no longer being the nation’s leading rush offense, as that belongs to Liberty. It’s no coincidence as the offense has been stuck in neutral for the past two weeks. Much of their drop off in production has to be attributed to their recent loose handling of the football.

Ten turnovers in their last two outings made for irrecoverable damage to their gameplan. They have put the ball on the ground 17 times this season, recovering seven of them. Their first interception of the year didn’t come until the week 10 game against Army. Between Zac Larrier, Jensen Jones and Ben Brittain, they’ve thrown four since then. That rate of turnover is not Falcon football, and it is certainly not winning football.

So, while injuries certainly have created some adversity, they’ve not been responsible for 10 turnovers in two games. Everyone is dealing with some level of attrition at this part of the season. Due to the rigors placed on these Cadet-Athletes, I would say Air Force is to anticipate such challenges more than most at this juncture. Whoever’s called upon to contribute Saturday, has to protect the football. It has got to be a point of emphasis if they want to beat a really good opponent.

The final area that really needs to find its way again is the kicking game. Specifically, Matthew Dapore and the field goal unit. Dapore has showed the potential of an All-Conference kicker but over the past few weeks has struggled with consistency. In a game where points are going to be critical and the margin for error minimal, they need that steady leg variety of Dapore back.

There are a lot of questions at key positions this week, especially on offense. One thing we know, next man up is not just a fashionable statement in Colorado Springs. This team has proven they can win with it at the core of their DNA.

Injuries or not, that 8-0 team is in the Air Force locker room. The past two weeks have been ugly, but those two performances constitute not the 2023 Air Force Falcons. This is still a very dangerous team that is more than capable of winning a Conference Championship if and when they get back to their game. Their game is meticulous to the details, stifling defense, and a relentless rushing attack that keeps the ball from you, not the other way around. That team has Air Force on the brink of a Conference Championship, despite what happened the previous two weeks.

After losing despite being 20+ point favorites, this week’s line looks right. UNLV is not going to like playing at altitude.

Air Force 24 –  UNLV 21

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Air Force at Hawaii: How the Falcons can beat the Rainbow Warriors

Air Force at Hawaii: How the Falcons can beat the Rainbow Warriors The Falcons Are Looking To Stay Perfect In Conference Play Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force Rebound After a Week 10 Letdown? WEEK 11: Air Force Falcons 8-1 (5-0) vs. …

Air Force at Hawaii: How the Falcons can beat the Rainbow Warriors

The Falcons Are Looking To Stay Perfect In Conference Play

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force Rebound After a Week 10 Letdown?

WEEK 11: Air Force Falcons 8-1 (5-0) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 3-7 (1-4)

WHEN: Saturday, November 11th — 10:00 P.M. MT/ 9:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Clarence T.C. Ching Complex ( Honolulu, O‘ahu)

WEATHER: Mainly clear skies. Low 74F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph.

TV: Spectrum- Kanoa Leahey (play-by-play), Rich Miano (analyst), Jordan Helle (sidelines)

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 14-7-1

WEBSITES: HawaiiAthletics.com, the official Hawaii athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Hawaii | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 22

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 20.6

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS:

Exactly one week after the most disappointing outings in recent memory, Air Force has an opportunity to get off the mat and realize a new mission. The Kuter trophy, which is awarded to the winner of the Hawaii versus Air Force game is hardly a consolation for fumbling away the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Yes, (bad) pun intended.

However, it’s much more than just the trophy that is at state on the island Saturday night. While winning the CiC outright is no longer possible, something the Falcons have never done in their history is still very much alive and in front of them. A Mountain West Conference Championship.

You would think the season was over for Air Force after last week’s stumble. They fell out of the College Football Playoff rankings just as soon as they entered, dropped to the rear of the race for a New Years Six Bowl bid and yet they’ve lost just one game all year, none of which have come in Conference play. The only team in the entire Mountain West that can say that.

If Air Force wants to reinforce how much those games against military brethren mean, they cannot allow Army to beat them twice this year by not showing up at Hawaii on Saturday.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN BEAT THE RAINBOW WARRIORS

While I fancy myself more of a New Testament guy, an Old Testament verse is most apropos for Saturday; Vengeance is mine saith (Air Force).

It’s almost eerie how similar Hawaii and Army are as it relates to their disparate comparisons to Air Force in nearly every significant team statistical category. None of that mattered last week, as the Falcons took a season’s worth of miscues and bundled them into a single gift-wrapped package delivered to Mile High Stadium.

That is why for week 11 against the Rainbow Warriors, we are going to simplify the blueprint to victory. Be the Air Force team from the first 10 weeks of the season.

Get a ground game established behind that elite offensive line. Even if that means an exercise of patience. The dive will feed the pitch, the pitch will feed the dive. A steady diet of Emmanuel Michel, Owen Burk and John Lee Eldridge II will lead to the ultimate demise of Hawaii. Continue working in Dane Kinamon, and the offense only becomes more dynamic.

This is an opponent surrendering 176 yards on the ground and 34 points per game. That presents nearly ideal as a rebound candidate. If the Falcon defense can continue their high level of play, Bo Richter and crew are going to make it a long night for Brayden Schager and the Hawaii offense. Which in turn will make for an even longer night for their overextended and fatigued defense.

And after three weeks of struggling in the kicking game, now would be a good time to see Matthew Dapore get back to form that resembled an All-Conference kicker. Air Force has been and can be a complete football team.

The road ahead is a difficult one for a team that has ambitions of a Conference Championship. With games against Boise State and UNLV looming, they cannot look past this week’s opponent. This truly is a ‘get right game’ for the Falcons.

No better time to shake off the seasons first loss and regain form, than a convincing win in paradise.

Back to basics.

Protect the ball. Run the ball. Sing second.

Air Force 35 –  Hawaii 17

A SPECIAL THANKS TO ALL YOU MILITARY VETERANS

It’s a privilege to have the opportunity to write about a team of young men that I feel are representing all that is best in us as people. And it is with immense respect and a heart full of gratitude that I express my sincerest thanks to all the Veterans out there providing a way of life that I am able to enjoy because of the sacrifices you make. On behalf of my family and so many others, Thank you.

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV vs. Wyoming

Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV vs. Wyoming The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Wyoming drops the Reb’s 31-14 Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports …

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV vs. Wyoming

The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Wyoming drops the Reb’s 31-14

Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire

For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports NCAA14, with updated 2024 rosters. There is no user impact, just a computer simulation of the given teams.

Last week our simulation favored Fresno State of Boise State by a score of 21-20. While Saturday’s game played out to a different score on the field, the end result matched our sim for the first time over the past five weeks!

In this Friday’s matchup between UNLV and Wyoming, both teams are going to hope for better redzone results than were experienced in this weeks simulation. Despite scoring 31 points, Wyoming scored on just one of their five trips to the red zone. No better, UNLV scored twice on their seven trips inside the 20. The result was a 31-14 victory for the visiting Cowboys.

With no turnovers on either side and very comparable passing numbers, the final score is a little headscratching. While Andrew Peasley had a solid game throwing the ball, Harrison Waylee was the real difference maker, accruing over 100 yards on the ground for the Pokes. The Reb’s weren’t able to must 70 on the ground as a team.

The biggest difference was in special teams, and that was despite just one field goal attempt all game. Punt returns and field position are what really helped propel Wyoming in this one.

These are two good Mountain West teams meeting on Friday night. Let’s see if the outcome on the field resembles the simulation this week!

If you have a strong opinion on who should be our featured simulation next week, let us hear about it @MWCwire. 

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Fresno State vs. Boise State

Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Fresno State vs. Boise State The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Fresno State tops Boise 21-20 Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire For those new to our simulations, we use the C ollege Football Revamped version …

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Fresno State vs. Boise State

The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Fresno State tops Boise 21-20

Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire

For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports NCAA14, with updated 2024 rosters. There is no user impact, just a computer simulation of the given teams.

Last week saw UNLV eek one out over Fresno State in our simulation. However, when the two actually met on the gridiron, it was Fresno coming away with the win in a thriller.

For the second week in a row, the losing team of the prior weeks simulated matchup gets a shot at redemption. This time, it’s the Fresno State Bulldogs who are coming off a loss in our simulation to UNLV, to now face Boise State. And it was sweet victory the second time around for the Bulldogs! Mikey Keene outdueled Taylen Green, tossing three tuddies to help secure the victory.

The simulation didn’t implore a quarterback rotation like you’ll probably see from Boise this week, it was Taylen Green the whole way. Ironically, Green was pretty effective throwing the ball for nearly 300 yards, but had two costly turnovers.

Just as surprising was the ability of Fresno State to outgain the Broncos on the ground. I’m not sure many would expect that assuming Ashton Jeanty is in the lineup, but that’s why we love the simulations- expect the unexpected!

This marks the fourth consecutive week that our simulation winner has lost the matchup on the field. With the exception of our sim reflecting Air Force being blown out by Wyoming, every game has been close. Each of these games have also played out similarly on the field, with all four games being coming down to a single score difference.

If you have a strong opinion on who should be our featured simulation next week, let us hear about it @MWCwire. 

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Air Force vs. Army: How the Falcons can defeat the Black Knights

Air Force vs. Army: How the Falcons can defeat the Black Knights The Falcons Look For Their 39th Win Over Army Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force retain the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy? WEEK 10: Air Force Falcons 8-0 (5-0) vs. Army Black …

Air Force vs. Army: How the Falcons can defeat the Black Knights

The Falcons Look For Their 39th Win Over Army

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force retain the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy?

WEEK 10: Air Force Falcons 8-0 (5-0) vs. Army Black Knights 2-6

WHEN: Saturday, November 3rd — 12:30 P.M. MT/ 11:30 A.M. PT

WHERE: Mile High Stadium (Denver, CO)

WEATHER: Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 62F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network; John Sadak (play-by-play), Randy Cross (analyst), Tina Cervasio (sidelines)

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 38-18-1

WEBSITES: GoArmyWestPoint.com, the official Army West Point athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Army | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 22

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 20.3

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS:

Air Force is currently riding a 13-game win streak, dating back to 2022 as they are soaring towards securing a place in the Mountain West Championship game. Something the Falcons haven’t done since that magical ride Karson Roberts led them on back in 2015. Forget all of that though, because it’s ‘Beat Army’ week.

Yes, winning their first Mountain West Conference Championship would be an amazing accomplishment for the United States Air Force Academy. But there is universally one athletic objective that is unrivaled each and every season, and that is to win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

Well, they’re halfway there as Bon Jovi famously sings. Two weeks ago, they beat Navy. Now, they must do something they haven’t done in seven seasons if they want to mark this mission accomplished; beat Army in consecutive years.

You couldn’t have two teams going in more opposite directions. Jeff Monken’s bunch are losers of five in a row, failing to score a single point in two of their last three contests. Air Force by contrast has yet to lose a game in 2023, winning every game by multiple scores, with the lone exception of their thriller over Wyoming at Falcon Staduim.

What has been a special run for Air Force can take a quick nosedive if they don’t finish the mission. They must beat Army to win their 21st Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, failing to do so by all accounts will drastically marginalize anything else they accomplish this year.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN BEAT ARMY (again)

One of the major story lines for Army coming into the year was their “revamped” offense. They no longer consider themselves a conventional triple option offense, bringing in Drew Thatcher from Nebraska- Kerney, of Division II to shake things up. It suffices to say, the evolution is a work-in-progress.

In this new offense Army has tried to incorporate a passing attack to keep the opposition honest, operating typically from shotgun formations. They still run the ball, but not as effectively as some of their teams of past. Despite the new offense struggling to just 20 points per game, good enough for 116th nationally, they’ve stayed committed to the new philosophy.

A major reason for the lack of success is the rate at which Army has coughed up the ball. They’ve put the ball on the ground 19 times this year, losing 10 of those fumbles. It’s not been any better throwing the ball either, tossing 10 interceptions, throwing a pick every 13 pass attempts. This has the West Point offense averaging 2.5 turnovers per game.

Air Force has an opportunistic defense, don’t be deceived by the fact they have only forced nine turnovers. The Falcon offense limits opponents’ possessions, so there are less opportunities for takeaways. Whether it’s Bryson Dailey or the Freshman, Champ Harris at quarterback for Army, opportunities should be there to capitalize and steal a possession or two for the Air Force.

On top of taking advantage of an offense that has shown a propensity to be loose with the ball, Air Force needs to rack up steady gains on an underwhelming defensive line. The Black Knights are surrendering almost 200 yards per game (185.6) on the ground. One of the ways you disrupt the Falcon offense is by getting tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Something Army simply has not shown an ability to do.

Their starting trio of Frey, Lewis and Hill have garnered just 3.5 tackles for loss between them. This is something the Diesels should be able to exploit and get blockers on the linebackers creating opportunities for chunk yardage inside. When Air Force is chewing up yards with Emmanuel Michel and Owen Burk between the tackles, it spells certain doom for the opposition.

I would expect Defensive Coordinator Nate Woody to take a similar approach against the Falcons as Navy did, by loading up the box to try and take away the inside game. So to get that inside game going, an effective run game to the outside paired with some timely passes may be needed to soften things up. This is a medley that Air Force has counted on all year to complement one another, with much success.

It doesn’t matter how they get to it though, that inside run is what’s proven to be the dagger to many proverbial hearts. Army will meet the same fate if yards are had between those big Diesel tires.

Both teams defenses always seem to show up for this game. I wouldn’t expect any different this year. But the Army offense has been putting their defense in unenviable positions a lot this year, and there is a chance we’ll see four freshman featured on that unit when they play Saturday. That is not a recipe for success against Brian Knorr’s group.

The disparity in the two offenses is what will really make the difference on the scoreboard. Eventually Air Force is going to find a way to generate points, I’m not sure they same can be said for Army. Especially when you consider the personnel in the Falcons defensive unit; Alec Mock, Trey Taylor and Bo Richter all (should be) legitimately considered for MWC Defensive Player of the Year honors.

The Trophy case is getting crowded in Colorado Springs, Air Force sings second.

Air Force 17 – 6 Army

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Fresno State

Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Fresno State The NCAA 14 Video Game Says UNLV defeats Fresno State 28-13 Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire UNLV got a mulligan after being featured in last weeks simulation, where they lost to …

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: UNLV at Fresno State

The NCAA 14 Video Game Says UNLV defeats Fresno State 28-13

Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire

UNLV got a mulligan after being featured in last weeks simulation, where they lost to Colorado State 31-21. For the second week in a row, UNLV is center stage playing a top Mountain West opponent in week nine. This Saturday, the UNLV Rebels travel West to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs at Valley Children’s Stadium.

With their second crack at a simulation victory, UNLV came away with a W by defeating the Bulldogs 28-13. Mikey Keane and the Fresno offense left much to be desired coming away empty handed on half of their redzone appearances (2/4) and barely clearing 240 yards of total offense. Keane in particular was just 14/32 for 161 yards. Not what the Bulldog faithful have come to expect from this offense.

The Reb’s were able to get a good balance between the rushing attack and pass game. Courtney Reese cleared 100 yards on the ground with two tudd’s, while Doug Brumfield (who started in this simulation) chipped in just under 190 through the air. The UNLV defense did their part, forcing the games lone turnover courtesy of Cam Oliver, and largely limiting Fresno’s offense.

It will be interesting to see how this one really plays out Saturday, as this matchup could have serious implications on who will be playing in the Mountain West Championship game.

If you  have a strong opinion on who should be our featured simulation next week, let us hear about it @MWCwire. 

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Air Force at Colorado State: How the Falcons can defeat the Rams

Air Force at Colorado State: How the Falcons can defeat the Rams The Battle for the Ram-Falcon Trophy Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force win their 7th straight against the CSU? WEEK 9: Air Force Falcons 7-0 (4-0) vs. Colorado State Rams …

Air Force at Colorado State: How the Falcons can defeat the Rams

The Battle for the Ram-Falcon Trophy

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force win their 7th straight against the CSU?

WEEK 9: Air Force Falcons 7-0 (4-0) vs. Colorado State Rams 3-4 (1-2)

WHEN: Saturday, October 28th — 5 P.M. MT/ 4 P.M. PT

WHERE: Canvas Stadium (Fort Collins, CO)

WEATHER: Snow in the evening will give way to lingering snow showers overnight. Low 19F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Brandon Baylor (sidelines)

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 38-21-1

WEBSITES: CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): CSU | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 17.3

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 18.6

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has an 72.25% chance to win (27.17-18.31)

Don’t blink, somehow we are already at week 9 of the college football season. Wedged in between games against Air Force’s primary rivals Army and Navy, is a “trap game” versus the CSU Rams.

The Falcons have been rolling through the season like a finely tuned F-22 Raptor. The most recent victim enroute to Air Force’s 7-0 start was their rival brethren of the sea. If you look at the score, nothing about their win over Navy is really eye popping. If you watched the game, your eyes would affirm what the story of this season has been telling you; The Falcons have an elite defense, completely suffocating the Mids. Navy wouldn’t have recorded a score, or even much more than 50 yards of offense were it not for Air Force playing an overtly conservative final drive to wind down the game. And news flash; their offense is not one dimensional.

Zac Larrier was a masterful conductor of the offense in a game that by most accounts, he was not expected to play. He was surgical throwing the ball completing 4/5 passes for 151 yards, which included a 94 yards touchdown pass to Dane Kinamon. He’s yet to throw an interception on the season. All of this couched with the obligatory nod to the fact he is the Mountain West Track champion. Larrier is playing his position at a level equal to or above anyone else in the MWC, period.

Awaiting the Bolts in Fort Collins is a more than capable Colorado State Rams team. Understanding the term capable is in no way a promissory note for victory. CSU has been very up and down this year, and in typical Jekyll and Hyde fashion, it’s going to be a matter of which variety of the Ram’s team shows up Saturday that will dictate how much of a threat they are to hand Air Force their first L of the season.

Jay Norvell and Matt Mumme seem to have settled on their quarterback now, which is essential in their pass heavy approach. Braden Fowler-Nicolosi has gotten a lot of attention for the statistics he’s posted in his time as a starter. And a major factor in those numbers would be the plethora of weapons he has to throw to. There are Bonafide Biletnikoff and Mackey award candidates on that CSU offense in Dallin Holker and Tory Horton. The production doesn’t stop there though, they have great depth in their pass catchers.

Air Force have not faced the kind of passing attack like they will this week. However, weather doesn’t look like it will be endearing to a pass heavy approach. And conversely, CSU has not faced a team like Air Force on either side of the ball. That’s not to inflate the greatness of the Falcons, it’s more of a reference to their unorthodox offense, and unprecedentedly stifling defense.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN TOPPLE THE RAMS

The talent on the CSU offense is well documented. This isn’t the first time they have featured tandems of wide receiver and tight end quality that rival anyone nationally. It’s almost what we have come to expect from the Rams. What we haven’t come to expect is wins as a result of the talent. One of the major reasons they’ve struggled to peak above mediocrity is their defense.

One of the worst defenses in the nation, the Rams are as bad as anyone at defending the pass, and their run defense is nothing to write home about. Air Force is not going to be met with the same resistance to the run as they did last week, in particular allowing their fullbacks to be the catalyst to their offense. CSU ranks 91st in run defense, surrendering 160 yards per game on the ground. Take a look at their schedule, there aren’t many elite rushing attacks on that schedule. Air Force must impose their will, leaning on the country’s number one rushing attack to lead the way.

If the stable of fullbacks don’t have a big game on the ground, it probably means John Lee Eldridge has some eye popping yards per carry numbers getting the ball on the edge. It is also likely that the 131st pass defense is taken advantage of by Larrier and crew while they load the box to try and contend the run.

Historically, even when Air Force has had a good defense, their achilles heel has been the secondary exposed by an effective pass game to open things up. It seems contrary to make that remark considering they rank 4th nationally at defending the pass, but their dominance at time of possession helps skew that statistic. This could be one of those games that the numbers don’t tell the story. Success defending the pass is going to be a group effort, getting after the quarterback and communicating at the second and third level. The experience of an Alec Mock and Trey Taylor will key in that regard.

The last area of focus is going to lean in on the Falcons strength, which is in the trenches. CSU has done a great job of getting after the quarterback, averaging three sacks per game. They have also protected the quarterback very well, especially when you consider how often they throw the ball.

The Air Force defensive front has line wreckers in Bo Richter and Peyton Zdroik. They need to be able to generate pressure on Saturday so Nicolosi isn’t comfortable working through his reads to these talented receivers. Meanwhile, the ‘Diesels’ up front for the Falcons need to keep Mohammed Kamara and company out of their backfield. Expect a blocking scheme that accounts for the Rams strength to be deployed to allow for steady gains in the snow.

It’s really interesting looking at the how the Rams have fared defensively, despite four of the better defensive players in all of the conference. This lends a lot of credence to the reality that teams that function as a unit are often far more formidable than one that might have highly talented individuals but lack communication or are more significantly flawed at other positions. Air Force feasts on a defense that is not on top of its’ game communicating.

You are in for a treat especially if you enjoy good secondary play as four of the best safeties in the conference will be featured in Jack Howell, Henry Blackburn, Trey Taylor and Jayden Goodwin. Unfortunately for CSU fans, I don’t see this game setting up to end their losing streak to Air Force at six. Weather could be a factor for both teams, but precision and execution will be the biggest factor. And no one has proven better than Troy Calhoun’s squad at that thus far.

Air Force 28 – Colorado State 20

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Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy

Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy The Battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Starts in Annapolis Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force win their 4th straight against the Midshipmen? WEEK 8: Air Force Falcons 6-0 …

Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy

The Battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Starts in Annapolis

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force win their 4th straight against the Midshipmen?

WEEK 8: Air Force Falcons 6-0 (4-0) vs. Navy Midshipmen 3-3 (2-2)

WHEN: Saturday, October 21st — 10:00 A.M. MT/ 9:00 A.M. PT

WHERE: Navy-Marine Corp Stadium (Annapolis, MD)

WEATHER: Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 63F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Amanda Guerra (sidelines)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 33-22

WEBSITES: NavySports.com, the official Wyoming athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Navy | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 17.6

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 17

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has an 80.67% chance to win (26.18-13.2)

The biggest game of the Air Force season is being played in Annapolis this Saturday. Coincidentally, it’s also the biggest game of the year for Navy as well. Yes, by Sunday, the biggest game of the year for one of these two teams will have changed and involve that Military Academy in New York, but that game has little relevance until Air Force plays Navy.

This is where the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy begins!

Navy has looked underwhelming more times than not, with an up and down 3-3 start to the year. By some though, three wins at this point in the season may be a tic above expectation. Despite a revolving door of quarterbacks, and generally inconsistent output from their offense, the Mids are still in bowl contention, as well as vying for the all important CiC Trophy.

Navy will likely be relying on a very experienced Senior Tai Lavatai at quarterback on Saturday. He’s been the on and off again starter for what seems the last three seasons. But this is the same guy that last beat Army for Navy, so he’s no stranger to big games. Expect to see Braxton Woodson, the Freshman direct enrollee to see some playing time as well.

The quarterback situation at Air Force got very interesting late in their thrilling win over Wyoming last week. Jensen Jones entered the game when Zac Larrier went down with a knee injury. The offense stumbled at first with the change under center fumbling twice, but settled after under Jones control, masterfully executing an option pitch to the boundary that John Lee Eldridge II took to the house from 70 yards out. Jones also put the game on ice with their last possession, getting tough yards inside converting a first down to put the game on ice.

As if this game needed any additional juice, Navy is going to be honoring All-Time great Roger Staubach with a ceremony at the game. If the Falcons want Staubach’s jersey number adorning the field to be the only cause for celebration for the Mids, they had better come prepared for four quarters of football. Otherwise, Air Force’s stint being ranked, along with their possession of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy may be abbreviated.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN SINK THE MIDS

There is likely to be precipitation at some point during Saturday’s game. Ball security is always critical when you run some version of a time consuming option offense. I know many at Navy contend they have changed from the conventional triple option offense, but ultimately both of these teams have very similar philosophies. They run a lot, and they run very well.

Which brings up the biggest threat that the Falcons need to take inventory of, Alec Tecza. The Navy fullback is in a similar mold to Brad Roberts, minus a career suggesting he’s an all-time great at the program. Yet. Tecza is just a sophomore and has been a game changer with the ball in his hands.

Averaging over 230 yards per game on the ground, 5th best nationally, Navy has a lot of talent in their backfield. The fullbacks are an absolute strength with Daba Fofana and Tecza. The Air Force front seven have got to limit what the Mids backs are able to do on early downs especially.

Another area of the game to pay close attention to is turnovers. In games like this, the impact of a turnover seems to be magnified. Despite some very lopsided losses, Navy is one of the best at creating turnovers, forcing 12 of them. That’s twice as many as Air Force on the season. Neither team has thrown an interception this year, it will be interesting to see how many times the Falcons put the ball in the air with Jones getting his first start. The Falcons need a clean game in Annapolis.

I suspect the biggest deciding factor in this game is going to come through sustainability. The ability to keep drives alive, even if to flip field position, and conversely the ability to get off of the field. Both of these teams feature strong third down defenses. But where Air Force really stands out among the competition is in their ability to convert third downs. They are the best in the country, converting almost 60% of their third downs.

That defensive unit of Brian Knorr’s, not Newberry, is one of the best in the country. They aren’t going to make it easy for Navy to find daylight, a rhythm, conversions or points.

Even if the Navy run defense which allows double (148 yards per game) what the Falcons surrender on the ground, I don’t see it being sustainable. Eventually the dam is going to break from fatigue, as Air Force has shown a much better ability to maintain drives offensively and end them defensively. A slow suffocation.

I realize much of this relies on a quarterback making their first start on a critical stage. But all those diesels in front of Jensen Jones have experience to spare, and the supporting cast in the backfield is as dynamic and deep as any. Ask Wyoming if Jensen Jones can make a play to put you out.

And even if the game does come down to special teams, thankfully for Air Force, they have a dynamic kicker in Mathew Dapore who is perfect on the year.

Air Force Sings Second.

Air Force 20 – Navy 15

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Air Force vs. Wyoming

undefined[jwplayer TtpJIvlc-sNi3MVSU] Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Air Force vs. Wyoming The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Air Force Pays Miserably Against Wyoming, Losing 14-7 Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire Fans of Wyoming will …

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Mountain West Wire Game of the Week Simulation: Air Force vs. Wyoming

The NCAA 14 Video Game Says Air Force Pays Miserably Against Wyoming, Losing 14-7

Contact/Follow @PSeanU1 & @MWCwire

Fans of Wyoming will enjoy this outcome! The Cowboys hold a very sloppy Air Force team to just seven points in our NCAA14 simulation of this Saturday’s big matchup.

For those new to our simulations, we use the College Football Revamped version of EA Sports NCAA14, with updated 2024 rosters. There is no user impact, just a computer simulation of the given teams.

It’s pretty amazing that the score wasn’t far worse than 14-7 quite honestly. Air Force turned the ball over five times, four of which were fumbles, three coming from their star running back, John Lee Eldridge. Add in an interception from Zac Larrier, prior to exiting the game with injury, and you pretty much have the signature nightmare recipe for the Falcons.

Wyoming on the other hand had a stat line that pretty closely resembled what we’ve come to expect from Craig Bohl’s bunch. A stingy defense that gives the team a chance to win. And a run heavy offense, that got less than 100 yards chipped in from the passing game. Just the way you would draw it up, right Poke’s fans!?

Interesting enough, we left Wyoming’s biggest offensive weapon, Harrison Waylee in for this one, despite being questionable for Saturday’s game. The running back definitely was a difference maker, rushing for yards than any tandem of ball carriers for Air Force. A truly dreadful showing from the Falcons in this one.

The Air Force faithful will not be pleased if the Falcons cough the ball up five times in their primetime showdown with Wyoming. Both of these teams have legit defenses, so don’t be surprised if the scoring total isn’t all that different from what we saw on the simulation.

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