2021 fantasy football – Page 11

Fantasy football injury roundup: June edition

An update of all relevant fantasy football injury news.

Keeping up with injuries entering the fantasy football draft season is tremendously important. The most notable names from the traditional pool of skill players are in focus below.

Quarterbacks

Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: The 2020 No. 1 overall pick is on track to be just fine for Week 1, and he has been throwing for several weeks now.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: A labral repair to the non-throwing shoulder of this spring’s top draft choice didn’t hamper his ability to get onto the field for organized team activities (OTAs). He performed well, according to media reports.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots: The Patriots’ 2021 first-rounder wore a compression sleeve on his right calf in OTAs and was witnessed limping at times. The injury is not believed to be serious.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Less than a year after a gruesome ankle fracture, Prescott is expected to be a full participant in July’s training camp, according to head coach Mike McCarthy.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The ageless wonder was operated on in the offseason for a minor knee clean-up. As expected, Brady is already back on the field and throwing.

Cam Newton, New England Patriots: The long-time Carolina Panther suffered a bruised bone in his throwing hand in practice but is getting better, according to head coach Bill Belichick. The injury is not serious, and Newton even finished practice that day, so expect him back before training camp.

Running backs

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants: The star fantasy back is returning from knee reconstruction after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in his right knee. The team won’t hurry him back, so gamers are unlikely to see Barkley before training camp. It won’t be much of a surprise if he is held out into the preseason, and there’s even a reasonable chance his early-season workload will be deliberately restricted.

Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears: Cohen also tore an ACL last year and is in the strengthening phase of his recovery. The Bears expect their third-down back to be ready for the start of training camp.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals: An off-road vehicle accident resulted in surgery to repair what was described as an injury similar to turf toe. Conner is expected to be available for training camp, barring any setbacks.

Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers: A torn meniscus resulted in knee surgery in late May, and Wilson will be on the shelf up to six months, putting his Week 1 availability in serious doubt. Keep tabs on his situation as the summer unfolds.

Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills: Ankle surgery in the offseason has the second-year rusher on a timeline that should have him available in training camp. He’s probably best viewed as being “questionable” for the start of it.

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts: The fifth-year back is returning from a torn Achilles tendon. He has been participating in “athletic activities” but has not actually practiced in OTAs. The prognosis for such a recovery is roughly nine months, which would be the middle of June.

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Rex Burkhead, Houston Texans: The versatile veteran suffered a torn ACL in late November and opted to sign with the Texans this offseason. He may have to begin the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list, although it probably doesn’t matter with such a crowded backfield.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers: A minor knee issue has him sitting out of OTAs, but the local-area media reports put the speedy rusher on track for training camp.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team: As a rookie in 2020, Gibson suffered a late-season toe injury that is not quite fully healed. It didn’t require surgery, and Gibson is being mindful of not suffering a setback. He has been going at full speed and cutting in OTAs, so this doesn’t sound like it should be of much concern for fantasy purposes.

Wide receivers

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns: The maligned star suffered an ACL tear last October and is “right on track,” according to Akron Beacon Journal writer Nate Ulrich. OBJ has posted videos on social media showing his trademark athleticism is still intact, so there’s scant reason to be overly concerned about his health … a sheer lack of chemistry with his quarterback is the larger worry.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: ACL recovery usually takes about nine to 12 months, and it’s not quite as problematic for a receiver of Sutton’s profile. It would be more damning for a juking running back or a joystick receiver, like Tyreek Hill. Sutton suffered the injury in Week 1 and should be just fine, physically speaking, heading into training camp. The team could take it easy on him, though.

Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins: The once-promising career start has been totally derailed by serious injuries. Moreover, the Dolphins restocked the WR cupboard this offseason in a way that could put Williams on the roster bubble. It’s unclear what specifically was wrong with Williams’ foot after missing eight games last year, but he is back on the practice field in OTAs.

Jalen Hurd, San Francisco 49ers: Hurd is coming back from an ACL tear and is rehabbing on the side during OTAs. The more serious hurdle is cracking the top three at his position in an offense that really doesn’t utilize the spot in a meaningful way.

Corey Davis, New York Jets: The new Jet addition suffered a shoulder injury in practice June 1. As of June 11, there is no new update on his status, other than the situation being labeled a “minor strain.”

KJ Hamler, Denver Broncos: Despite putting on 11 pounds in effort to become more durable after playing last year at 170 pounds, Hamler tweaked his hamstring in practice June 1 and is taking it easy.

Dazz Newsome, Chicago Bears: The undersized but agile rookie broke his collarbone in OTAs but should be ready for training camp after undergoing surgery.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers: A minor groin injury had the second-year receiver sit out Wednesday, June 2, and he remained sidelined for precautionary reasons as of the most recent update on June 8.

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A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans: The standout pass-catcher underwent clean-up surgery on both knees in January and will be A-OK for training camp.

Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: AB went under the knife in mid-March to clean up debris in his knee and is about two weeks away from returning to the field.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons: The new WR1 in Atlanta underwent minor foot surgery June 9 and will miss the rest of minicamp, but he should be just fine in time for training camp.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys: Cooper (ankle) encountered an irritation while running in late May and will need several weeks of rest, which could put being on the field at the start of training camp in jeopardy for the veteran wideout.

Curtis Samuel, Washington Football Team: A strained groin suffered in OTAs has Samuel on the sidelines for the time being. The injury doesn’t sound serious, per reports, although the coaching staff should take it easy on him for now.

Tight ends

Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys: Yet another player recovering from an ACL tear, Jarwin took part in some drills during late-May team activities. The team will take it easy on him as a precautionary measure.

Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos: The 2020 fourth-rounder blew out his ACL last season and is coming along on schedule, but he will likely miss the opening of July’s training camp.

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Howard suffered a torn Achilles tendon last year late in his fourth appearance, and he’s on track to be ready for camp. Bruce Arians said Howard is “really close” as of June 8.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots: The former LA Charger exited practice early Thursday, June 10, after getting his ankle/foot looked at and re-taped by trainers. While the injury was described as minor, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport, the specific issue is unclear at this time.

Kyle Rudolph, New York Giants: The former Minnesota Viking suffered a foot injury in 2020. It was believed the issue would not require surgery, but the physical he took prior to signing with the Giants determined a procedure was necessary. He is not supposed to miss any action.

Does the Julio Jones trade make Mike Davis that much better in fantasy football?

Does Davis drastically benefit in fantasy football?

One aspect of the Atlanta Falcons trading Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans that warrants a closer look is the fantasy football impact on running back Mike Davis seeing more work in the passing game.

A year after his breakthrough season as a member of the division-rival Carolina Panthers, the journeyman enters the Atlanta backfield as the primary option.

Does the loss of Jones open up more receiving work for Davis? Absolutely.

But will it make all the difference in his fantasy value for gamers?

The lack of Jones likely will cut both ways, adding more available passes to be distributed and also putting more defenders into the box. For the sake of brevity, his rushing role won’t be in focus today.

Fourth-year wideout Calvin Ridley joined the ranks of WR1 fantasy options last season as Jones missed seven games. In those outings, Ridley’s involvement increased from 9.5 targets to 11.3, or a 32 percent jump, when compared to contests with Jones in the lineup. Naturally, the resultant catches per contest increased, too, going from 5.1 to 7.1. Ridley saw an increase of 2.5 yards per reception without Jones, although his reception-to-touchdown ratio went from a score every 5.1 grabs to just every 17 without Julio in the lineup.

Update: Ridley underwent minor foot surgery and is expected to be fully recovered prior to the start of training camp.

In the offseason, former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith became the head coach of the Falcons. We have two years of his system designs with the Titans to evaluate for a reasonable expectation of what may be to come. It’s not perfect, but it’s a starting point to illustrate potential. There’s little value in comparing the two teams and year over year other than to look at the positional utilization from Tennessee under Smith. And even that should be taken with a grain of salt.

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We know the system will heavily involve the tight end position (27.8 percent of all 2019-20 targets) and utilize play-action passing to take its shots down the field to the wideouts. Smith also had one of the top rushers in the league at his disposal, and there isn’t a comparable in that sense for this Atlanta backfield. Conversely, Tennessee didn’t have a pass-catching running back to the caliber of Davis.

Given more than quarter of the targets over the past 32 games in Smith’s offense went to the tight end position, and Ridley is the only proven receiver in his Atlanta grouping, it’s fair to expect a similar share of the looks to go toward rookie first-rounder Kyle Pitts after the Jones trade. The elite talent will be Davis’ primary competition for targets.

At receiver, Julio accounted for 34.7 percent of Atlanta’s targets over the past 32 games by the position and 35.3 percent of the receptions, or 9.4 looks and 6.3 grabs per outing. That’s an enormous amount of action to be replaced, but the overall passing volume should decrease a fair amount compared to recent Atlanta offensive displays.

Let’s go through a quick exercise in extrapolation to see how it possibly could impact Davis’ role as a receiving asset. While predicting where all of those targets well end up in 2021 is mostly a crapshoot, there’s an interesting opportunity for Davis to see considerably more than the 4.67 he garnered on a weekly clip in Carolina a year ago. Say he gets a substantial 25 percent bump in looks, we’re at 5.8 grabs a game. That translates to a hearty 98.6 over 17 appearances in 2021.

A fairer estimate is something around 15 percent, because we don’t have real-world comparison from a Smith system, and Ridley has room to exceed Julio’s typical 160 looks as a baseline after seeing 143 in 2020. Such an extrapolation for Davis is still greater than 92 grabs over the new 17-game schedule.

Now, this assumes no one else steps up from the backfield. Qadree Ollison is not much of a receiving back, but rookie Javian Hawkins profiles as a Darren Sproles type and could severely cut into Davis’ target share. Pay extra close attention to Hawkins’ development in training camp.

Otherwise, a formidable share of the looks will end up in the hands of tight end Hayden Hurst. We could see noteworthy strides from WRs Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus. Tajae Sharpe has flashed briefly and knows the Smith offense from their time in Tennessee. Cordarrelle Patterson has shown by now he isn’t not a viable threat to gobble up a ton of looks as a receiver. The remainder of the receiving corps is more or less untested and doesn’t immediately warrant attention, but that could vary with strong showings in camp or a free-agent acquisition.

Fantasy football outlook

Unless Hawkins emerges, Davis is poised to challenge for the league-lead in receptions from the running back position.

That said, it won’t be all roses. Due to concerns along the offensive line, potential competition, a spotty history of finding limited success, and added defensive scrutiny, Davis still profiles as a moderately risky RB2 in PPR after the Jones trade.

2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

Make sure you know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2021 fantasy football drafts.

It’s rare that an otherwise consistently selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some recognizable names just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.

“Bust” is a loaded term that isn’t entirely fair, nor is it an accurate reflection of a player’s risk. Furthermore, it’s tough to find a consensus definition. Can an injury create a bust? Is it only a bust situation if the player goes up in flames without an injury? Both? Are busts only early-round selections? You get the point. Regardless of how one defines it, the term is far from perfect.

This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches. Therefore, we’ll focus on “overvalued” in this space. ADP variations between sites are wild this time of the year, and those dramatic differences will be noted below.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft.

2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

1) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 3:05 | Bust factor

In Mixon’s four pro seasons, he has finished a full slate just once. The Bengals present an intriguing situation from a volume perspective, but the lack of durability makes it more or less a wash. Even if he stays healthy, Mixon has a suspect offensive line and an offense system intent on throwing the ball to a trio of formidable wideouts. Mixon has yet to reach double-digit touchdowns in a season, and his yardage cap is less than 1,170 yards on the ground. Don’t get hung up on his name value.

2) QB Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans | ADP: 7:09 | Bust factor/overvalued

The receiving corps is relying on a breakthrough from tight end Anthony Firkser, which is reasonable, and serious progress from newcomers Josh Reynolds and Dez Fitzpatrick, a rookie. A.J. Brown is a legit WR1, and Derrick Henry helps make play-action passing dangerous, but he is poised for a setback statistically and comes with inflated injury concern. Tannehill is being drafted ahead of Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and a handful of other quarterbacks with better risk-reward ratios. Some services place his ADP in the ninth round, which is too high, as well.

3) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants | ADP: 6:11 | Bust factor

The former Detroit Lion cashed in on one strong season — which wasn’t even last year — and a decent campaign the year before. He suffers a serious drop-off at quarterback by entering an offense led by Daniel Jones, a signal-caller coming off of a drastic regression in his second season. Jones is on thin ice, but who is going to replace him if the third-year passer doesn’t bounce back? Mike Glennon is the current answer, which should be startling. Golladay, with one full season to his credit, comes with more downside than likely reward.

4) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants | ADP: 10:11 | Overvalued

So he finally finished a full season and what did gamers get to show for it? One measly touchdown. Now, the Giants have improved the weaponry around Engram to make him even less of a focus, and the backfield should see a healthy Saquon Barkley’s return to gobble up checkdowns from the arm of a work-in-progress quarterback. While the cost of investment isn’t horrific, the number of better tight end options going later than Engram is nearly 10 players.

5) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons | ADP: 4:12 | Overvalued

Don’t get me wrong, Pitts is the top rookie tight end talent in recent memory. He is physically capable of doing things players at his position shouldn’t be capable of accomplishing. And he gets a huge boost in targets if Julio Jones is indeed out of Atlanta. That said, Pitts is still a rookie at a position that typically takes time to effectively contribute in fantasy. He is currently going as TE4 in redraft leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft. This excludes keeper leagues, so his placement is crazy high. Looking at the past decade of rookie tight ends to finish in the top 25 of PPR point-earners, history isn’t on his side for a monster year. The average stat line: 54 targets, 35 receptions, 401 yards, 3.6 touchdowns, 96.6 PPR points. Evan Engram’s 2017 season was by far the most productive, logging 64-722-6 on 115 looks (173.6 PPR points). The next four best PPR producers: Hunter Henry (131.8 points), Dwayne Allen (115.3), Jordan Reed (114.7) and Noah Fant (113.8). The average of those five: 129.8, which was TE17 last year.

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6) TE Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins | ADP: 9:05 | Overvalued

Historically, tight ends rarely have mattered in a Chan Gailey offense, and now the Dolphins have added a pair of playmaking receivers to interfere with Gesicki’s target count. The Penn State product picked up the pace late last year after a rocky start, but much of his success can be boiled down to three games, one of which came with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. While entering the final year of his deal could add some incentive, Gesicki still is reliant on a so-so quarterback situation in an offense that boasts no silver lining for his odds of a consistently useful campaign.

7) RB Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 8:05 | Bust factor

Between injury history, a pass-happy offense, and two other very capable running backs, Fournette could be a lineup paperweight in 2021. The ADP isn’t so much a problem, so it’s not like he presents an overreach, but there’s so much working against him. Fournette’s saving grace in recent seasons has been his receiving chops. Running back Giovani Bernard will cut into that area of his game, and then there’s the chance of losing short-yardage touchdowns to Ronald Jones, which kneecaps Fournette’s two main ways of contributing. Only two teams (PIT, JAC) ran at a lower percentage of their overall offensive snaps. At this point, Lombardi Lenny is merely roster depth for the occasional spot start.

8) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 5:03 | Overvalued

Some of his placement is still the proximity to the NFL draft and its natural hype effect on rookies. Face it, fantasy owners love themselves the newest shiny toy, and Chase is in that category. He hasn’t played since 2019, which is possibly benign, but it’s, at a minimum, not a plus. The Bengals have two other capable receivers in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and Mixon is a respectable receiver out of the backfield. Chase is reunited with Joe Burrow (knee), so there’s that going for him, but he ultimately is a rookie and also has to fight the rust factor. The LSU standout eventually will be a fantasy stud, although there should be some healthy skepticism as to how effective he’ll be as a rookie — especially when the price tag is so lofty at this current time. Chase’s ADP ranges between Rounds 5 and 10 most of the time, which is bonkers. Anything earlier than Round 8 is way too soon in a single-year league.

9) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 5:06 | Overvalued

This one really could go either way, so take it with a grain of salt. The main idea of including Evans here is the wealth of targets around him. Presume Chris Godwin stays healthy all year, and Antonio Brown enters with a potential to play a full season, too. What will that do to Evans’ numbers? He thrived by finding the end zone a career-high 13 times last year. His yardage (1,006) and receptions (70) were the second-lowest marks of his career for each stat. Those dips were with Godwin and AB missing a combined 12 games. Rob Gronkowski also was slow to get rolling. The Bucs added pass-grabbing RB Giovani Bernard, and TE O.J. Howard returns from injury. The primary reason to hold out hope Evans will indeed reach his ADP in relation to production is his scoring prowess. He has, though, scored eight or fewer TDs in four of his seven seasons, so it’s not like Evans is a total lock for finding paydirt a dozen times.

10) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans | ADP: 8:02 | Bust factor

The obvious looming legal concerns have sent his draft stock tumbling, which is no surprise. Watson also wants out of town, further clouding his situation. Timing could very well be on his side, unless the NFL steps in to implement discipline ahead of the 20-plus impending lawsuits being adjudicated. There’s always the chance it all could be settled ahead of time, although it appears it all will be going to court in the fall. Presuming he plays, and for the Texans, Watson will be tasked with carrying the offense in a new system devoid of dynamic receivers, outside of veteran Brandin Cooks. The receiving corps has oft-injured Randall Cobb manning the slot, and veteran Chris Conley was added to compete with Keke Coutee for a top-three spot. Nico Collins comes aboard after being drafted in Round 3, and his 6-foot-5 frame presents a target in the red zone. Will Fuller’s defection leaves a glaring hole in this passing game: a consistent deep threat. Houston added running backs Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to work in alongside David Johnson, suggesting an increased emphasis on the ground game.

Sound Off: Which RB do you plan to draft third in 2021?

After CMC and Dalvin Cook, which RB will you draft next?

We always enjoy seeing reader feedback at The Huddle, making the “Sound Off” series is a fine way to get a finger on the pulse of our viewers.

In today’s poll, the answers should help illustrate whether there’s a clear consensus or a more polarized view on the elite players at the running back position. Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook consistently are the first two backs to come off the board in PPR drafts, which brings us to the third overall pick’s lack of consensus.

Presume this is a 12-team, PPR draft. Which back will you take third?

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Fantasy football mock draft series: May takeaways

Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?

It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. While I usually have completed several before the NFL draft, this year I opted for a more relaxed approach, and a recently hosted industry mock was my first of the season.

Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here. The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft.

Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t select kickers of defensive teams), here are a few generalized observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

Every Round 1 pick was a running back, minus a WR (Tyreek Hill) chosen at No. 11 overall. Five RBs came off the board in Round 2, which mostly consisted of receivers.
The first QB came off of the board in late Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes). It’s odd to see Michael Thomas fall to the middle of Round 3, which is his current ADP, so get used to it — at least until more is know about the starting quarterback battle.
In the first 100 picks, 9 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 10 TEs were drafted.
Drafting in the top six is a great situation this year. You’re bound to come away with a legit No. 1 running back. There’s enough depth at the position to either go with a pair in the opening two rounds or alternate between RB and WR in the first four rounds while still coming away with a strong nucleus.
Quarterback remains quite deep, with a viable starter being available into the 12th round or so. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, but it has filled out more so than the past couple of years.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 11 RBs, 1 WRs
2nd: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
3rd: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
4th: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 8 WRs, 1 TE
5th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 6 WRs
6th: 1 QB, 3 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
7th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 5 QBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs
9th: 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 3 TEs
10th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE

My team

1:05) RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

I strongly considered Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott, but it was Taylor’s health and offensive line that made the difference. Pick 5 overall is a nice problem to have in 2021.

2:08) RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team

I intended to come away with two RBs off the bat. Gibson’s youth, TD prowess, offensive line, upgraded quarterback situation, and limited competition drew me to him over Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Najee Harris and D’Andre Swift.

3:05) WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

I agonized over Allen in a new offense or Michael Thomas with a new, unsettled QB situation … Allen’s chemistry with Justin Herbert has me feeling more comfortable with a coin flip of a decision.

4:08) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

My queue ahead of choosing Kupp: George Kittle, Julio Jones, Mike Evans … all three went in that order. Kupp gets a QB upgrade and should remain extremely involved. Nice consolation.

5:05) WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

While Seattle should be more balanced this year, Lockett remains a strong WR2 and is my third receiver. The debate mostly came down to him and Courtland Sutton, but Adam Thielen was given thought, too.

6:08) TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Drafting TEs this early isn’t usually my thing, but there was a clear drop-off in expected production after Andrews. I’m encouraged the Baltimore WR upgrades helping him see fewer doubles.

7:05) RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers

My biggest gamble … Sermon is an ideal fit for this zone-blocking scheme and should ascend the depth chart in fairly short order. The primary worry is consistency, especially if QB Trey Lance starts.

8:08) QB Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Maybe Brady is another gamble, but the dude is immune to Father Time and has the best receiving corps in football. There should be at least one more QB1 season in his geriatric tank.

9:05) RB Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders

Meh … not terribly inspiring, but there’s room for a major workload if Josh Jacobs continues to be prone to minor injuries or suffers a serious one. Drake will have an occasional flex role.

10:08) WR Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders

Ruggs’ rookie year was nothing short of awful. He gets the benefit of the doubt after an unconventional 2020 offseason. Fingers crossed, he’ll showcase his freakish athleticism with regularity in the upcoming campaign.

11:05) WR Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots

I’m confident in my top three receivers, and Henry Ruggs was a gamble, but Agholor should be fairly safe to cover byes or injuries. He has room to quickly takeover the Pats’ WR pecking order.

12:08) QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

With Tom Brady’s age, a backup is a must. I wanted Matthew Stafford; Burrow should be fine after knee reconstruction, and his WR corps is as promising as the defense is porous.

13:05) RB Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints

Purely a late flier on the “what if” Alvin Kamara were to suffer a serious injury … I wanted relative stability in my fifth RB following a gamble on Trey Sermon.

14:08) WR Tyrell Williams, Detroit Lions

Someone has to catch passes in Motown, right? While D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson may combine for 180 receptions or more, Williams was a reliable WR3/flex during his career before missing last season with a shoulder injury.

Fantasy football free agency roundup

NFL free agency will drastically help reshape the fantasy football landscape as the new league year begins.

Now that NFL free agency is upon us, here is where we’ll run through the fantasy football outlooks for trades, re-signings, midrange players, and tag recipients.

This analysis will be updated as players sign/re-sign in free agency, so be sure to check back regularly.

Signed with new team or traded

QBs Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff swapped

RB Mark Ingram, Houston Texans: The 31-year-old inked a one-year, $2.5 million deal in Houston to pair with fellow well-aged runner David Johnson. The duo will create a one-two punch, so long as what we saw from Baltimore making Ingram a healthy scratch late last year wasn’t foreshadowing. Some of that was due to him not playing special teams and the team wanting to get a closer look at rookie J.K. Dobbins. Presuming quarterback Deshaun Watson returns, Ingram still has a dicey outlook. The Texans’ porous defense has so many needs that it’s tough to see the offense being able to consistently run the ball if the other side cannot contain opposing offenses. Ingram needs bulk to make a mark in fantasy lineups, which rarely will be the case, unless he finds regular success around the goal line, consider the veteran merely roster depth or a handcuff to Johnson.

Re-signed/extensions

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: There’s no surprise associated with the four-year, $160 million extension Prescott signed prior to free agency opening. He wasn’t ever going to be allowed to leave the building, as evidenced by a formality of being tagged again. As long as his ankle rehab goes according to plan, this potential No. 1 overall fantasy quarterback has the tools to pick up where he left off.

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers:While it’s technically an extension, Big Ben’s deal was reworked to provide cap relief for the Steelers and keep him in a black-and-yellow uni for one last go of it. Roethlisberger will almost assuredly be without WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Pittsburgh has a new offensive coordinator in Matt Canada, but there’s still enough to like about the situation for Roethlisberger to be in the conversation of a low-tier rotational starter.

QB Cam Newton, New England Patriots: The knee-jerk reaction is to scoff at Newton getting a one-year, $14 million deal to re-sign with the Pats. A closer look should elicit a more measured response. Last year, just about everything worked against Cam finding success. He signed late (June 28), there was no offseason program, the offensive system is intricate, New England lost several key players to the opt-out, the offensive line had to shuffle talent several times, no receivers to speak of, zero tight ends of consequence, an erratic rushing attack, and Newton was returning from foot surgery prior to joining New England. Excuses, you may say … perhaps, but all of those factors are undeniable reality. Newton is finally healthy after three straight offseasons of rehabbing from surgery. Wait to see how the Patriots address wide receiver and tight end concerns, but it’s unwise to entirely dismiss a rebound by Newton.

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QB Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team: The former Panther parlayed an admirable playoff start into a two-year extension in Washington. He knows the system and the brain trust’s nucleus from his time in Carolina. Alex Smith’s release opens the door for Heinicke to compete for a starting job while having the upper hand against a newcomer who won’t be as familiar with the playbook. It’s unlikely, however, Heinicke is the season-long starter for this offense as an incoming rookie or free-agent acquisition will have that momentum on his side.

Franchise/transition tagged

WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: No one paying attention expected the Buccaneers to allow Godwin to walk into free agency. Look for a stronger showing in 2021 after an injury-pocked season a year ago derailed Godwin’s campaign from nearly the onset. He’s a legit WR2 in all settings, but his upside is capped at that position overall with the bevy of talent around him in the passing game.

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears: It seemed for quite some time that Chicago wouldn’t have the cap space to tag Robinson, but he was indeed slapped with the tender of $17-plus million for 2021. While he would like a long-term deal, and the team may still yet find a way to meet his demands by July 15, there also remains a chance this could get ugly. Robinson doesn’t want to play on the tag, nor must he sign the tender. He then wouldn’t play or get paid, so there’s that, and $17.89 mill is nothing to sneeze at during an offseason in which the salary cap actually goes down. At 27, Robinson could put his John Hancock on the offer sheet and still hit free agency in 2022 young enough to get one last shot at a huge deal when teams will have more money to throw around. Long story short, he mostly is quarterback-proof, but Chicago still needs to put a better product on the field. Whether it is Nick Foles or someone else under center in 2021, A-Rob is a viable PPR WR1 with a hint of downside.

Remains unsigned

Quarterbacks: Alex Smith, Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett
Running backs: Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Kenyan Drake, Todd Gurley, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, James White, Matt Breida, Brian Hill, Leonard Fournette, Malcolm Brown, Jerick McKinnon, Adrian Peterson, Le’Veon Bell, Kalen Ballage, James Conner, Marlon Mack, Wayne Gallman, Jamaal Williams, Mike Davis
Wide receivers: A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Sammy Watkins, Marvin Jones, John Brown, Breshad Perriman, Corey Davis, Willie Snead, John Ross, Keelan Cole, Kendrick Bourne, Will Fuller, Demarcus Robinson, Antonio Brown, Curtis Samuel, Damiere Byrd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Nelson Agholor, Rashard Higgins, David Moore, Kenny Golladay
Tight ends: Hunter Henry, Rob Gronkowski, Kyle Rudolph, Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert, Gerald Everett, Jordan Reed, Jonnu Smith, Trey Burton