Tag: 2021 nfl free agents

Can Mike Davis carry the Atlanta Falcons’ ground game?

After an admirable 2020 season in Carolina, veteran RB Mike Davis heads to the Falcons.

New Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith ran a run-heavy, play-action system in Tennessee with rushing king Derrick Henry powering his way to consecutive yardage crowns over the past two seasons.

In 2021, former Carolina Panthers running back Mike Davis may get a shot at showing what he can do in a similar role, replacing RB Todd Gurley. This marks the fourth team the 28-year-old Davis has played for since entering the league in 2015, and it’s the first time he gets a chance to enter the season as the presumed starter.

While much can change between now and Week 1, Davis has no obvious competition for the bulk of the touches right now, and he enters an offensive system known for generating fantasy football success at his position. In Tennessee last season, Smith’s offense ran 51.8 percent of the time, which was the third-highest rate. The Titans were fourth in 2019 under his guidance. During the same window, Atlanta finished no better than 25th (2020) and was even dead last in 2019.

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The Falcons have invested heavily in the offensive line in recent years, although the results haven’t been reflective of such. The offense lost center Alex Mack to free agency, and a pair of 2019 first-rounders on the right side have yet to fully materialize as being worth the commitment. Right guard Chris Lindstrom came into his own after an injury-marred rookie year, finishing with the fifth-highest ranking among his positional mates in 2020. Right tackle Kaleb McGary began last season much improved but faded down the stretch and saw his overall play slip as the year went along.

Matt Hennessy, a 2020 third-round selection, appears in line to assume Mack’s position, though some recent chatter says the team is still looking at the center market. Furthermore, the depth along the line, especially inside, is barren.

It will be interesting to see is if the Falcons try to make quarterback Matt Ryan fit the offensive designs of Smith more so than adjusting Smith’s playcalling to the nearly 36-year-old’s strengths. Bootlegs and rollouts aren’t exactly tops on the list of what Ryan is know for in his career, but in his defense, he handled Kyle Shanahan’s similar system several years back.

Currently on roster, running backs Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison are the only two with experience. It’s fair to believe Smith is ahead of Ollison and does have more speed to help complement Davis. That said, look for the Falcons to address the backfield in the upcoming NFL draft. There remains a respectable pool of change-of-pace running backs in free agency, too.

Fantasy football outlook

Going on the presumption Davis enters as the primary running back, he brings considerable versatility to the offense. A few curiosities arise, though: Why did it take him until his age-27 season and an injury to truly showcase his skills? How will Davis respond as being the top guy right out of the gates? Can the defense allow the offense to run late into contests? Aside from the defense, it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley starring at wide receiver. Then there’s the worry about Smith — is he a great coordinator who’ll stink it up as a head coach?

In 2021, initially there will be offensive line concerns. Last year, however, we saw Davis find considerable success behind a similarly poor front five. ProFootballFocus ranked Carolina’s unit 18th-best and that of Atlanta 21st. If the Falcons can consistently get more from the right side of the line, look out for this being a possible fantasy football steal to come out of free agency.

The former Seattle, San Fran and Carolina back fits what the Falcons will implement on offense, and Davis showed off his hands with 59 receptions a year ago as he filled in for Christian McCaffrey over 12 starts. We had see a few flashes from Davis in past stops, albeit in limited action, and he played a role as Seattle’s third-down back in 2018 (34 receptions).

Since Davis has only two seasons with more than 68 carries, it’s probably unfair to point out his yards-per-carry average was 3.5 or less in those four years. During the two seasons with at least 112 attempts, he was good for 4.6 in ’18 and 3.9 last year. Much of last year’s issues can be attributed to the line and also being rarely able to establish a lead late in games when defenses are worn down.

Davis may be an alluring sleeper-like figure in draft circles. If for no other reason than being a new face in town at a coveted position, fantasy owners will find him intriguing. He probably gets less fanfare in casual leagues, yet some gamers will remember his contributions last year and immediately flock to him, assuming the situation is as good or better — it certainly could be better. Smith has the track record as an offensive mind (experienced with TEs and OL, so he knows blocking), and the weapons around Davis to prevent defenders from automatically keying on him each play.

Then there’s the aspect of this defense … it has to improve, and it should, to a degree. Incoming coordinator Dean Pees has found considerable success in his long NFL career. The personnel components remain suspect, though, and this could be a heavy focus in the NFL draft. Atlanta’s inability to keep points off the scoreboard could be Davis’ undoing on the ground. Through the air, though, he actually stands to benefit from a shaky line and sieve-like defense.

Gamers will be forced to decide if Davis worth the risk of an RB2 investment, provided he doesn’t see serious competition in the meantime, and the rest of the outlook hinges upon expectations for aspects out of his control. Davis will be a valued asset in PPR circles, and he is worthy of a weekly flex play as his floor, if the Falcons remain committed to him.

Giants sign prized free-agent Kenny Golladay

Golladay upgrades the Giants receiver corps

The Giants’ passing game takes a major step up in potential with the signing of Kenny Golladay to a four-year, $72 million contract. The ex-Lion star looks to cash in after finishing his four-year rookie contract in Detroit that saw him top 1,000 yards in 2018 and 2019 before struggling through an injury-marred season.

The Lions are in a rebuild, though some of their recent additions would disagree. Golladay moves on after his career-best 2019 that saw him with 65 catches for 1,190 yards and 11 touchdowns when he was a Top-10 fantasy wide receiver. He led the league with those 11 scores as a wideout that year.

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Golladay joins a Giants franchise that only ranked No. 29 in passing yardage (3,318 yards) and No. 31 in passing touchdowns (12). He’ll slide into the vacated spot left by Golden Tate across from Sterling Shepard.  The Giants also added John Ross as the No. 3 receiver but the passing scheme heavily favors just the two starting wideouts.

Golladay was the top free-agent wideout, and his $72 million deal included $40 in guaranteed money.

Fantasy football outlook

The Giants look to recover from a down year rebuilding the team during a pandemic. Daniel Jones showed promise as the 1.06 pick in 2019 when he threw for 3,306 yards and 26 touchdowns over 13 games. Golladay provides the field-stretching ability that will help him get back on track as the Giants enter their second season under HC Joe Judge and OC Jason Garrett.

Golladay fills the void that was left when Odell Beckham Jr. left and will be the first elite receiver that quarterback Daniel Jones gets to use. As the No. 1 target, he’ll continue to rate as a 1,000-yard receiver and could challenge the Top-10 yet again if the Giants can stay healthy and return to form. A returning Saquon Barkley will further help the Giants’ passing effort by providing more balance to the offense than they had last year.

This was a great signing for the Giants and can help propel Golladay higher into the elite ranks if they can continue to improve and maintain their health. Signing for four-years proves the commitment that the Giants have towards making him their top receiving weapon.

Mike Hilton says scheme fit and roster main reasons he signed with the Bengals

Mike Hilton talked about why he chose to sign with the Bengals this offseason and not return to Pittsburgh.

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There have been a couple of really disappointing moves this offseason for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The surprise release of linebacker Vince Williams is right at the top. But the other might be when cornerback Mike Hilton chose division rival Cincinnati Bengals as his new team.

Hilton talked about the decision to sign with Cincinnati and cited the scheme fit as well as the influx of young talent in the secondary as reasons for the move.

I feel like having those guys over the top of me and just signing (Chidobe) Awuzie and getting Trae Waynes on the outside, I feel like this secondary is really beginning to come together. We’re young guys. Once we get on that same wavelength, I feel like we can be dangerous.

Of all the losses the Steelers are going to weather this offseason, Hilton might be the one the media talks about the least but the team feels the most. It’s going to be a huge challenge to find a player to match what Hilton brought with his energy, effort and versatility.

Hilton spent his first four seasons in the NFL with the Steelers. Hilton went undrafted but Pittsburgh took a chance on him and it really paid off for both sides. The contract Hilton signed with the Bengals is worth $24 million over four years.

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Will Fuller agrees to become a Miami Dolphin

What does the move do for Fuller’s fantasy football worth?

Former Houston Texans first-round pick Will Fuller began a breakout season as Houston’s true No. 1 in 2020, the first season without DeAndre Hopkins. He has agreed to take his services to South Beach to catch passes from Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The deal is believed to be a one-year, $10 million contract, which allows Fuller to set himself up for a run at more money in 2022. (Keep that in mind for full-retention keeper/dynasty formats.)

In 11 games last year, Fuller posted eight touchdowns. An extrapolated total of 77 receptions for 1,278 was within reach prior to being suspended for the final five games for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs. He will miss Week 1 in the upcoming season.

Miami provides a so-so situation for Fuller. While Tagovailoa was a winner as a rookie, his presence certainly didn’t help the receiving corps, and he’s no Deshaun Watson. The Dolphins were focused on putting more talent around him, and this could be the most talented top three of any receiving corps in the NFL right now.

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DeVante Parker took some time to come along but established himself as a WR1 in 2019. He had great chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick but took a step backward during Tua’s stint as the starter in 2020. The talent is there, for sure, so it may come down to a more traditional offseason worth of working together.

WR Preston Williams (foot) has missed the second half of each of his first two seasons but has scored seven touchdowns in 16 pro games. He underwent surgery in November and should be fine in time for fantasy purposes.

Tight end Mike Gesicki is a talented pass-catching option, too, and there’s going to be an issue at times of not enough footballs to go around. Dolphins offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s system hasn’t been particularly favorable for tight ends throughout its history, but if Gailey is great at anything, it’s his ability to morph an offense to fit the talent.

Fantasy football outlook

With a litany of injuries on his rap sheet, and now a serious suspension concern looming for any future misstep, Fuller is one risky dude.

There shouldn’t be any argument over his talent being in the conversation of a No. 1 receiver, but he now will play one fewer game off the bat and has capped upside with Parker, Williams and Gesicki in the fold.

Then there’s the worry about Tua as a passer. He’s a great athlete, but we have yet to see enough to firmly say Tagovailoa is ready to take his aerial game to the next level. If you’re a  believer in Tua, feel free to bump Fuller up a few notches. It really could go either way, so understand what degree of risk is being assumed.

The 2021 Dolphins will be an interesting bunch and could surprise in the passing game, but there are more issues here than desired when considering someone of Fuller’s talent. It would have been nice to see him land in a more favorable setting, but here we are …

Gamers have a shaky WR2 on their hands, and Fuller is more safely drafted as a third option. Chances are, though, drafters will be forced to spend market value if they want to roster him.

Kenyan Drake joins Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas backfield

Drake signs a two-year contract for $11M to split the Raiders’ backfield

The Las Vegas Raiders signed free-agent Kenyan Drake to a two-year, $11 million contract that boosts their backfield though at the expense – potentially – of Josh Jacobs. The deal could be worth as much as $14 million with incentives.

Drake spent his first three seasons with the Dolphins after being a third-round selection in 2016.  He was never used heavily there, topping out with 644 yards on 133 carries in 2017 but adding a receiving role the next year that netted him a career-high 53 catches for 477 yards and five touchdowns. Amid the Fins offensive implosion in 2019, he was sent the Cardinals for a conditional sixth-round draft pick in 2020 before the Week 8 trade deadline.

He added a great spark for the rest of the year, rushing for 643 yards and eight touchdowns over the final eight weeks in Arizona. His 2020 campaign was less productive, with 955 yards on 239 carries and just 25 catches for 137 yards while missing a few games.

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He lands on a Raiders squad already featuring Josh Jacobs. The release of No. 2 back Devontae Booker cleared the way for a replacement and Drake provides an upgrade, having spent most of his time in the NFL as a primary back who is still only 27.

Fantasy football outlook

The Raiders drafted Jacobs in 2019 and received two-straight 1,000-yard seasons from their first-round pick. He caught a career-high 33 passes for 238 yards last season while only missing one game. Devontae Booker filled with around four to six touches per game.

Jacobs turned in six games with more than 20 carries in 2020 and that’s likely to decline with the addition of Drake. Instead of a split backfield with two dissimilar backs sporting different skills, the Raiders now essentially have the same back twice. There is no doubt that Jacobs remains the primary, but after he ran 273 times for 1,065 yards (3.9 YPC) last year, he’s playing with Drake who handled 239 carries for 955 yards (4.0 YPC).

At first glance, the addition of Drake means less work for both backs in Las Vegas.  Devontae Booker was merely a change-of-pace back with no challenge for more work last year. Drake owns a 4.5-yard career rushing average and carried over 15 times in over half of his games with the Cardinals.

Worse yet, Jacob’s propensity to get banged up only adds to what could be an uneven share of the workload each week.

 

Curtis Samuel reunited with familiar faces in Washington

What does the reunion with Ron Rivera and Co. mean for Curtis Samuel’s fantasy football value?

On the first official day of 2021 NFL free agency, former Carolina Panthers wide receiver Curtis Samuel heads a little north to join the Washington Football Team. He is reunited with his former head coach Ron Rivera, 2019 offensive coordinator Scott Turner, and long-time general manager Marty Hurney.

Former Panthers backup and presumed No. 2 quarterback Taylor Heinicke also is in Washington, in the event newcomer Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t so magical in his age-39 season.

Washington will find creative ways to utilize Samuel’s speed and feature him prominently alongside wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Tight end Logan Thomas broke through in 2020, giving the offense more outlets for the opponent to worry about defending. The backfield features a quality tandem in pass-catcher J.D. McKissic and promising ’20 rookie Antonio Gibson to balance the offense.

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Washington’s philosophy is built on successfully running the ball to enable play-action passing and fielding a consistently sound defense. The offensive line graded out as the sixth-best unit overall last year by ProFootballFocus, and the core returns intact.

Fantasy football outlook

The offense overtly needed another weapon and explosiveness. Samuel will be a large part of the offense and is in a good spot regardless of how the quarterback situation shakes out during the season.

There is only mild upside in Samuel, though. He has been put in better situations than this while with the Panthers and failed to capitalize in an earth-shaking way for fantasy purposes. Not all of it was his fault, but reasonable expectations must be in focus. Minor injuries have been an issue, too.

He is fresh off a career high for receptions (77) and yardage (851), but Samuel caught just three touchdowns and added a pair on the ground. He scored seven total touchdown in each of the previous two seasons — solid but far from special production — while in the Turner-inspired offense. Quarterback issues in recent years didn’t help, but it’s not like anything Washington can offer will be ultimately that much of an upgrade.

Fantasy footballers should consider Samuel a WR3 in the upcoming draft season if erring on the side of caution is your thing. His best season came outside of Turner’s offense. He has the tools to post No. 2 figures with regularity, illustrated by his WR23 overall finish a year ago in PPR. However, that should be the optimistic view of his potential worth. Drafting him as a second receiver isn’t advised in standard formats and comes with arguably more risk than reward potential in reception-rewarding leagues.

Grading the 2021 NFL free agency signings, Part 2

The NFL free agency grades continue, as Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield post marks for every transaction.

Once Mark Schofield and Doug Farrar graded the first wave of free-agency signings and re-signings in the legal tampering phase of the process, it became time to roll that over into a second list. So, here’s Part 1 of the grading epic…

Grading the 2021 NFL free agency signings

…and Part 2, in the interest of the best reader experience possible, starts here. Stay tuned to Touchdown Wire through the start of the 2021 league year, which begins at 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 17.

Jacksonville adds a veteran presence in Marvin Jones Jr.

Fantasy footballers have a touchdown-scoring wideout returning to a familiar offense.

The Jacksonville Jaguars lost three receivers to unrestricted free agency in 2021, and new head coach Urban Meyer will have a veteran wideout in Marvin Jones Jr. to help incoming rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence get off to the right start.

Jones is thoroughly familiar with the new offense in Duval County, one orchestrated by Darrell Bevell. As one may recall, Bevell was the playcaller in Detroit in 2019 and 2020, ultimately becoming the interim head coach after Matt Patricia’s dismissal.

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The Jaguars have the 2021 NFL Draft’s top pick, which undoubtedly will be spent on Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Jones brings the better part of eight seasons of play (missed 2014) as experience and scored 18 touchdowns over the past two seasons in Detroit. He’s coming off a 76-catch performance, which is a career high. The offense will take no time to learn, which means he can help his rookie quarterback and a pair of young receivers in Laviska Shenault Jr. and DJ Chark Jr.

Fantasy football outlook

Jacksonville has pieces in place to be a capable offense in Lawrence’s first year, and the defense is still porous enough that he could be asked to pass more than preferred. That’s a win for Jones and fantasy gamers alike.

In 2021, Jones’ numbers are likely to take a hit. He recently turned 31 years old and has averaged less than 13 yards per grab the past two seasons, which is down from at least 14.5 the prior three campaigns. This is due to a combination of the role in the system and his age, but we’re likely to see it continue.

Even being a tremendous prospect, Lawrence is still a rookie quarterback in an offseason that may be disrupted once again by COVID-19. He has to learn the ropes and build chemistry with his receivers.

With that in mind, and a pair of blossoming youngsters as positional mates, just how many catches can we expect from Jones? He averaged 64 catches from 2013-20 when extrapolated to 16 games. Consider that to be is likely ceiling. In fact, somewhere closer to 55 is a safer estimation.

Factoring 12.5 yards per catch gives us somewhere between 660 and 800 yards as a reasonable range. He has averaged a touchdown every 8.1 catches in that same time frame, so seven scores is a fair estimate based on the past. Given the weapons around him and the likely commitment to rushing the ball with James Robinson, Jones should finish closer to five touchdowns.

There’s nothing tangible to warrant belief in an uptick in production. Let’s give Jones a modest line of 60-750-5 … that would have been WR45 in PPR last year, which coincidentally was Shenault’s placement. This would have been WR42 in 2019. In standard scoring, the placement hardly varies (WR42 aggregate). In all practicality, Jones is a low-end WR3 or ideal flex target for fantasy football gamers.

Hunter Henry is the latest free agent to join the Patriots

The Patriots are building around Cam Newton, agreeing to terms with a second high-profile tight end.

The New England Patriots continue to spend in free agency, this time agreeing to terms on a three-year, $37.5 million deal with tight end Hunter Henry.

Didn’t see that one coming, did ya? Maybe the Pats intend to play four-tight end base sets!

Kidding aside, the move comes less than 24 hours after Bill Belichick and Co. lured free-agent tight end Jonnu Smith away from the Tennessee Titans. Henry, a 26-year-old former Los Angeles Charger goes from a rising star at quarterback to a flickering one in Cam Newton, but as discussed in our free agency roundup, Superman entered just about the worst possible scenario for success in 2020.

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At his best as a passer, Newton was reliant on the tight end position, and he had a competent running game to help establish play-action passing. The Patriots have retooled the offensive line at right tackle but still will take a hit after losing star guard Joe Thuney in free agency. The center position also has to be addressed. But, in theory, since the ends of the line are solid enough, Henry shouldn’t be asked to block an excessive amount.

After a flurry of moves to open the legal-tampering period, New England has now added a deep threat in wide receiver Nelson Agholor, and the aforementioned Smith is a downfield asset from the tight end position. Henry is coming off a personal-best 14-game season in which he posted a career-high 60 receptions. Los Angeles franchise tagged him a season ago and simply couldn’t make the numbers come together, despite having a bunch of cap space. That speaks to Henry’s extensive injury history, and while the Pats spent up for his market value, we don’t know the structure of the deal. Also having Smith provides more than enough cushion in case Henry once again falls to injury.

Last year, he missed time after being placed on the COVID-19 list. In 2019, Henry was lost four games worth of action from a fracture in his knee, a year after he missed an entire season with a torn ACL. Henry has yet to play a full campaign in his five-year career.

Fantasy football takeaway

There will be weeks Henry and Smith overshadow one another. It’s bound to happen, and gamers will have to accept it prior to drafting either player. The Patriots have plenty of targets to distribute to keep both players relevant more often than not, and the system has made two tight ends relevant before in past years.

It all comes back to whether Newton having a full year-plus to digest a complex system and finally entering an offseason health are enough to get his career back on track. The Patriots will rely heavily on the ground game to take pressure off of Newton and also set up the play-action passing attack.

Henry should be the primary intermediate target between he and Smith, especially in the red zone, and the former Charger can flex into the slot. Versatility also allows Smith to move around, too, and we all know how much Belichick loves to focus on exploiting mismatches.

The volume should be down after a personal best in that regard last year. The best way for Henry to match or exceed past success is by drastically increasing his role in the red zone. More trips to the end zone is the best bet gamers have if Henry is to be held in the same esteem as he was while being the main tight end in LA. In New England, he won’t have a reception hog in the vein of Keenan Allen, although there’s still a soon-to-be 35-year-old named Julian Edelman who may have something to say about it.

Henry will be closer to a rotational tight end than an automatic starter in standard-scoring fantasy, but he has low-tier TE1 value in PPR drafts. Be prepared to traverse what could be a bumpy ride, though, in terms of weekly consistency.

Corey Davis and New York Jets agree to terms

What does this do for his fantasy football value?

The salary cap and other needs made it clear as day the Tennessee Titans were out of the running to re-sign wide receiver Corey Davis, who agreed to a three-year, $37.5 million contract with the New York Jets, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

The Titans declined Davis’ fifth-year option prior to his 2020 breakthrough season, and while it may seem like it came back to bite them, the team wouldn’t have had the money to cover his $15-plus million option and do what else it needed to accomplish with the roster.

In New York, Davis joins slot receiver Jamison Crowder and 2020 second-round pick Denzel Mims to round out the presumed top targets at the position. All three receivers bring different attributes and nicely complement each other.

The mystery is what happens at quarterback. New York currently has Sam Darnold entering his fourth year on a favorable contract, and the franchise has a decision to make ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jets hold the second pick and will be faced with the opportunity to move on from Darnold in favor of BYU quarterback Zach Wilson.

While just about everyone on Earth has Wilson mocked to the Jets, don’t be so quick to jump on the bandwagon. It’s a new coaching staff, and current general manager Joe Douglas didn’t draft Darnold, but the organization also has not done enough to put the former USC star in position to succeed. That said, the allure of a more dynamic arm may be too tough to pass up, and there’s always the factor of team brass wanting their own guy. Flip a coin.

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The addition of Davis doesn’t really tip the hand too much. Regardless of which guy is starting at quarterback in 2021, he’ll need targets. Davis is coming off a career season in which he paired well with A.J. Brown and give Ryan Tannehill a reliable target.

But it warrants asking, why did it take Davis four years to figure it out? Was it finally the combination of right coaching staff, quarterback, and personnel around him? In 2021, the expectations probably can’t be much greater than what he faced as a former first-round pick.

The quarterback situation is a drop-off from Tannehill, although there’s possibly no distinguishable difference going from Darnold to a rookie. Talent alone, Wilson gets the edge, but he also is coming into the NFL from a school not exactly known for pumping out quality quarterbacks.

The Jets have a weak defense, which puts the team into pass-happy scripts. Tennessee also was porous on that side of the ball, but it wasn’t much of an issue for playcalling balance as Derrick Henry ran roughshod over the league. Whatever New York fields at running back won’t be Henry’s caliber, and the offensive line still needs some retooling.

Fantasy football outlook

Point-per-reception leagues will put a slight emphasis on Davis’ value as a possession-based receiver. He has more speed than average, but moving the chains has been his game to date. Davis has a career high of 65 receptions (twice), reaching it in only 14 games a year ago. He won’t have someone of Brown’s pedigree to help alleviate pressure, though. There’s also the factor of a new head coach and offensive coordinator — both first-timers in their respective roles.

The offense will look similar to what the 49ers have employed under Kyle Shanahan — play-action passing, bootlegs, zone-rushing scheme, and creative ways to get the ball into the hands of the playmakers.

Davis is a WR3 in PPR and closer to a flex in stand scoring, because he doesn’t have a history of finding the end zone — something unlikely to change in 2021’s New York offense. There will be a few blowup performances, where he goes for 20-plus points, but he enters a much tougher situation in terms of defensive competition in his new division. The overall numbers may approach his 2020 line of 65-994-5, but that is over 16 games and is also best-case scenario.

Don’t get overly interested in drafting Davis. If he falls to you at a fair value in the middle rounds, consider him as a role player in your bid to winning a fantasy championship.