Tag: 2019 NFL season

Highlights, player tracking of Cowboys biggest Week 11 plays

Dissecting the biggest plays in the Dallas Cowboys’ 35-27 victory against the Detroit Lions using EPA and Win Probability metrics.

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys picked up a much needed victory as they beat the Detroit Lions 35-27 in a close game. The Cowboys dominated on the offensive side of the ball while their defense continued to struggle, this time against a Lions team led by backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. The team’s defense has been a let down despite some stellar play from the defensive line. That being the case, the burden is on Dak Prescott to lead the offense in high scoring games, and on Sunday he once again proved more than capable.

It was an explosive game for both passing offenses as each team’s pass defense was lackluster.

Here are the biggest plays of the game in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability (WP) with data via nflscrapR. EPA measure the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

Make sure to check out the multiple views of the player tracking data for unique insight into how the plays unfolded.

The Plays

No. 1: Ezekiel Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, FUMBLE

EPA: -4.2. DAL WP Shift: 48% -> 39%

Another game, another turnover on the Cowboys’ opening drive. The team has been known for their slow starts in 2019 and turnovers have been one of the biggest culprits. On the first rush of the game Elliott fumbled after being gang tackled by a pair of Lions. It was edge rusher Trey Flowers that forced the ball out with a recovery from linebacker Jarrad Davis.

The turnover proved to be a costly one as the Lions were able to turn it into their first score of the game. It was a seamless opening drive for the Lions who would start at their opponents’ 28-yard line. After a short drive, running back Bo Scarbrough scored on a 5-yard rush up the middle.

No. 2: Dak Prescott sacked by Devon Kennard for a loss of 10 yards

EPA: -2.4. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 34%

The Cowboys’ third drive of the game looked to be a promising one. Beginning at their own 14-yard line, they would slowly inch their way into a scoring opportunity. The drive spanned 14 plays, 79 yards gained and five first downs. Eventually the Cowboys found themselves at the Lions’ 2-yard line on a goal-to-go situation. On third down it was Lions edge rusher Devon Kennard that would generate the sack on a well-timed blitz call for a loss of 10 yards.

After the sack the Cowboys would have to settle for a 30-yard field goal try from Brett Maher putting the score at 7-3 late in the first quarter.

No. 3: Prescott pass short middle to Tony Pollard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 3.5. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 55%

Trailing by four points to start the second quarter the Cowboys would get their first touchdown of the game in style. Much like in their previous possession, their fourth drive would also be a long one. This drive covered 7 plays, 70 yards gained and three first downs. Their success was rewarded when Prescott connected with Pollard on a 21-yard reception for the score. Pollard flashed his explosive potential by forcing a missed tackle in route to his first career receiving touchdown.

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Prescott’s advancement echoed by top spot in several advanced stats

The Cowboys have a path to the playoffs, but first they will need a victory against a Stafford-less Lions team. Is victory a sure thing?

It has been a polarizing season for the Dallas Cowboys, who enter Week 11 with a record of 5-4. At this point a record like that would seem disappointing, and it should be. The team has been a model of inconsistency and that includes the coaching staff. In one game they look like the best offense in the NFC, but in another they are trailing the New York Jets 21-6 at half-time. However, despite what the record suggests the Cowboys are in first place in their division as they are currently 4-0 against division rivals.

The reality of a 5-4 record does not match Super Bowl expectations, but there is still optimism for the team to make a strong playoff push. Hope springs from the MVP-caliber play of quarterback Dak Prescott, who has helped transform the team’s identity with his passing efficiency. Prescott and the team’s passing attack has been among the best in the league and this is how they rank in the 2019 season with some key metrics:

  • No. 1 in EPA per pass attempt (0.32), per nflscrapR
  • No. 1 in Success Rate per pass attempt (56%), per nflscrapR
  • No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA (29.6%)
  • No. 1 in yards per pass attempt (8.7)
  • No. 1 in yards per play (6.7)

Prescott gets slighted for being on a team that is one win above .500, but he has maintained his elevated level of play throughout the entirety of the season. Here is a chart that demonstrates Prescott’s effectiveness using Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play). EPA measures the value of a given play using down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

This graph illustrates how Prescott has been far and away the most crucial component in the Cowboys’ offense. His worst game of the season in terms of EPA/play came against the New York Giants in Week 9. Even then his performance was still comparable to the league average.

This chart also accounts for non-QB EPA/play. The differences are drastic, but it stresses just how good Prescott’s season has been.

The Stafford-less Lions

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

In their upcoming Week 11 matchup against the Cowboys the Detroit Lions will be without their starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is unlikely to play after suffering a back injury against the Oakland Raiders in Week 9. His injury has been diagnosed as fractured bones in his back per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

In his place backup-quarterback Jeff Driskel will get the starting nod for the second game in a row. In his first start with the Lions, Driskel was 27-of-46 passing against the Chicago Bears for 269 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a losing effort. He also added 37 yards on five carries.

Overall, his performance was all one could ask of a backup, and Driskel is experienced in this regard. In a similar situation in 2018 he was tasked with filling in for an injured Andy Dalton for the Cincinnati Bengals over a five-game stretch.

Playoff Projections

Week 11 is shaping up to be a meaningful week for the Cowboys. Their odds of winning the division will get a big boost with a win against the Lions and and a Philadelphia Eagles loss against the New England Patriots. According to FiveThirtyEights’ 2019 NFL Predictions a Cowboys win and an Eagles loss on Sunday gives the Cowboys a 60% chance to win the division. However, a Cowboys loss and an Eagles win would drop the team’s playoff odds to a mere 16%.

In preparation for Week 11, Driskel called his upcoming start against the Cowboys, “business as normal”. For the Cowboys this will not be a game to take lightly. The Lions are facing a string of injuries on both sides of the field, one player that is in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s matchup for the Lions is cornerback Darius Slay. Slay has arguably been his team’s best player in the defensive backfield and if he is unable to play then the Cowboys’ passing attack will be heavily favored.

All signs point to the Cowboys coming away with a victory on Sunday, but victory for the team has hardly been a sure thing. If the Cowboys want to prove they are contenders, they will need to produce a convincing win against a weakened Lions team. As the dust settles, a win here would be step one for the team as they get ready for a final playoff push down the stretch.

Cowboys’ 7 plays that changed the game in 28-24 loss to Vikings

A look back at the 7 biggest plays from the Cowboys’ 28-24 loss to the Vikings using EPA and WP metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys might have suffered their worst loss of the season against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The final score was 28-24, but the biggest takeaway from the game was the plethora of questionable play-calls and mismanaged opportunities. The Cowboys were clearly the better offensive team from a passing standpoint. However, the rushing attack they heavily relied on in the past was a non-factor against the Vikings, and ultimately, it might have been the driving force behind the daunting loss.

It was a game that featured plenty of explosive plays from both offenses. Here are the biggest plays that stood out in the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability with data via nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a given play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

The Plays

No. 1: Kirk Cousins pass short right to Dalvin Cook for 27 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 35%

The Vikings’ first big play of the game came on simple screen pass to Cook. He managed to turn the short pass into an explosive 27 yard catch and run. Cousins was not asked to throw deep against the Cowboys, his average pass on Sunday traveled seven yards through the air. Instead he relied on Cook to generate yards after the catch. Cook totaled 109 yards after the catch and his ability to break tackles and create extra yardage was crucial for the Vikings.

This play would end with a facemask penalty from cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. The resulting catch and 15-yard penalty gave the Vikings field position at the Cowboys’ 10-yard line. They would eventually end the drive with a score, putting them up 7-0 early.

No. 2: Cousins pass short left to Cook for 30 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 21% -> 16%

Once again Cook showed why he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He turned another short screen pass into a huge gain, this time for 30 yards. And much like his first big play this one also ended with a penalty for the Cowboys. A 14-yard roughing the passer call on DeMarcus Lawrence would result in a 44-yard gain for the Vikings.

The Vikings would end the drive with another touchdown. It was tight end Kyle Rudolph that would pick up his second score of the game with linebacker Sean Lee in coverage. The score was now 14-0, but the Cowboys have developed a reputation this season as a team that rallies later in games. This game was no different.

No. 3: Cousins sacked for a loss of 9 yards by Robert Quinn

EPA: -2.3. DAL WP Shift: 13% ->17%

To start the second quarter the Cowboys found themselves in a dire situation. The defense had struggled to contain Cook throughout the first quarter and they desperately needed a stop on third down. So it is no surprise that Quinn came up big for his team when it mattered most. The team needed momentum and Quinn was able to give it to them following this sack.

No. 4: Prescott pass deep right to Amari Cooper for 20 yards

EPA: 2.5. DAL WP Shift: 14% -> 19%

Due to some questionable play-calling on early downs the Cowboys faced plenty of third-and-long situations. Luckily for the Cowboys the combination of Prescott and Cooper has turned into on of the most dependable QB-WR tandems in the NFL. The duo consistently lifted the team in these tight situations, and on this play Cooper displayed his elite awareness skills with a toe drag catch.

No. 5: Prescott pass short left to Michael Gallup for 23 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9. DAL WP Shift: 19% -> 27%

The Cowboys’ offense finally got back on track in the second quarter. After an impressive 20-yard catch from Cooper, it was Gallup that would give the Cowboys their first score of the game. The Vikings were in zone coverage here, but it was a well designed offensive play that had linebacker Eric Kendricks covering Gallup down the middle of the field for the easy score.

No. 6: Prescott pass deep right to Randall Cobb for 22 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 4.4. DAL WP Shift: 36% -> 49%

Late in the first half the Cowboy were presented with a scoring opportunity. From the 22-yard line the expected points from this part of the field was 2.6. Even so, the Cowboys were not looking to enter half-time with a field goal. The team would even the score at 14-14 on a free play as the defense was called for an offside penalty.

Prescott’s improvisation skills came in handy on the explosive pass play and Cobb showed great focus in making the catch. Cobb had his best game as a Cowboy as he accounted for 106 yards, six receptions and a touchdown.

No. 7: Prescott pass deep right to Cooper for 12 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.4. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 51%

The duo of Prescott and Cooper connected on plenty of immaculate catches on the night, but this one by far was the most impressive. This play was a pass with some jet-action from RB Tony Pollard. Prescott rolled out to his right as Cooper ran a comeback route. The ball placement essentially left Cooper in a spot that was impossible to defend. But the accuracy from Prescott was also uncanny.

Where do Cowboys go from here?

It was a tough loss for the Cowboys as Prescott put on another MVP-caliber performance. They lost to a good team, but it did not have to be that way. There were plenty of opportunities to seize the game, but it was the coaching staff that came up short with a game plan that featured plenty of runs on first-and-10. All night the Cowboys had struggled to establish the run. Passing on the other hand was a completely different story. Much like they have all season, the Cowboys have possessed on of the best passing offenses in the league through 10 weeks of football.

Right now the biggest question marks come from the Cowboys’ defensive side of the ball. What has been concerning is the team’s never ending battle  against the run despite being at full strength on the defensive front. Even the pass defense has suffered as of late, as Awuzie has failed to take a major leap in his game now in his third year in the league. Overall, the Cowboys do have the talent and the right personnel to compete for a Super Bowl, but reality has not lined up with the expectations for the 2019 season.

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