Even with losing twice, Texas is still alive for the Big 12 championship game. They’ll need to win out and get some help from other teams.
Despite losing the Red River Shootout to Oklahoma and losing on the road to TCU, Texas is still alive for the Big 12 championship. It has come down to three teams: Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas. Here is a look at those three teams, how they have done this season, and what games they have remaining.
Baylor Bears 9-0 (6-0) Remaining games: Oklahoma, Texas, @Kansas
Baylor started the season out 3-0 in the nonconference, sneaking past Rice in their third game of the season, 21-13. In Big 12 play, the Bears have gone to double overtime with Texas Tech and triple overtime with TCU. Their impressive win of the season was a 31-12 road victory against Kansas State. All but two of their conference games have come down to one possession and have yet to make a statement. They can make that statement with a win against Oklahoma that would no doubt put them in the Big 12 championship game.
Oklahoma Sooners 8-1 (5-1) Remaining games: @Baylor, TCU, @Oklahoma State
After wrecking their way through Houston, South Dakota, and UCLA, Oklahoma came out firing in the Big 12, winning their first four games by an average of 28 points. That included a huge 34-27 win against Texas that seemed to put them in the driver’s seat in the conference. Then, a 48-41 loss on the road to Kansas State opened the doors up for teams like Texas to sneak back in. If the Sooners win out, not only are they still in contention for the Big 12 but the College Football playoff.
Texas Longhorns 6-3 (4-2) Remaining games: @Iowa State, @Baylor, Texas Tech
Starting the season out with now No. 1 LSU, Texas began the year 4-1 before coming across Oklahoma. The Sooners were able to take care of business in Dallas and the Longhorns have been struggling ever since. Losing to TCU and needing a game-winning field goal to get past Kansas and Kansas State is not what was envisioned for Texas this season. Despite all the struggles, the Longhorns are still in the race for the Big 12 championship game, they just need a little help.
That help will be determined based off of Saturday’s Baylor-Oklahoma matchup. One path is easier than the other for the Longhorns, but it may come at a cost. Here are the scenarios for Texas making the Big 12 championship:
Texas must win out
This is first and foremost the most important thing the Longhorns must do. If Texas loses any of its last three games against Iowa State, Baylor, or Texas Tech, they are more than likely done. It would still mathematically be possible, but odds are it will not happen. Texas’ schedule is the most difficult out of the three and faces an uphill battle. Let’s assume the Longhorns are able to win against Iowa State so the other scenarios can play out.
If Oklahoma beats Baylor…
Then the Longhorns control their own destiny for the rest of the season. The Sooners would be in the driver’s seat to wear the home colored jerseys in the Big 12 championship game, but who they play would come down to Texas’ matchup against Baylor in Waco next week. It would become the most important matchup this season in the Big 12 for a couple reasons. If Texas were to win, a shot at a rematch against Oklahoma could save their season and propel them into another New Year’s Six Bowl. If Baylor were to win, they could avenge their loss against the Sooners and jump into the College Football Playoff. For any of that to happen though, Oklahoma must win in Waco Saturday night.
If Baylor beats Oklahoma…
Then the road becomes a lot more difficult. Baylor would become a lock to participate in the Big 12 championship, even if the Longhorns found a way to beat them next week. It would become a competition between Texas and Oklahoma. Each with two conference losses, if both teams are able to win out, the Sooners would get a rematch with Baylor at AT&T Stadium. Since Oklahoma beat the Longhorns back in October, they have the tiebreaker to get into the Big 12 championship. In order for Texas to get into the championship game, they would need to beat Baylor and Texas Tech, plus have Oklahoma lose one of their final two games against TCU and Oklahoma State.
Can they do it?
Yes, they can do it. As painful and weird as it may sound, Texas will most likely be cheering for Oklahoma to be beating Baylor Saturday night. Controlling your own destiny is easier than relying on TCU or Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma. This would then set up a rematch of this year’s Red River Shootout. It would be the second year in a row these two teams met in the Big 12 championship game and would have College Football Playoff/Sugar Bowl implications on the line.
Texas will play Iowa State on Saturday at 2:30 P.M. CST on FS1, while Baylor and Oklahoma will play at 6:30 P.M on ABC.
